1:30 | Yarmouth | 14f
What the model sees
- Controlled tactical race | chaos low
- Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
- Betelgeuse leads the contextual model at 46.1
- Clearer top profile: +9.5 gap to nearest rival
- Winning-time par: 3m 04.81s
| Compare | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetelgeuseRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced | 61.7 | 5-2-2-5-1-6 | 9-8 | 1 | OR 64 | 76 | +12lb | 4/1 | +0.3 | Freshened up | Same trip | Modest field | 67% | 60% | 3/6 | 98 | C | Well in +18 | CAUTION PROFILE | |
| LaravieRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style | 61.0 | 1-1-1-5-9-4 | 9-13 | 2 | OR 69 | 67 | -2lb | 1/3 | +5.3 | Standard rest | Big drop back | Modest field | 56% | 62% | 3/6 | 96 | D | Workable +10 | CAUTION PROFILE | |
| Captain BrettRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile | 57.0 | 8-5-8-3-2-1 | 9-2 | 3 | OR 58 | 69 | +11lb | 5/1 | -5.7 | Standard rest | Same trip | Modest field | 59% | 59% | 3/6 | 98 | D | Well in +22 | CAUTION PROFILE |
Betelgeuse profiles as a front-runner with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 3/6. Possible lone-leader setup
Nearest contextual rival.
View full racecard intelligence
Betelgeuse
Front-end controller
Model agreement
3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence
61.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)
Beat: Golden Garden (USA)
Beat: Volcanic Rock (IRE), Dollars Dream (IRE), Westlain (IRE) | Dollars Dream (IRE) placed next/later
Beat: Provision (GB), Moon Chime (GB), Mio Amico (GB) | Moon Chime (GB) won next/later, Shipshape (IRE) won next/later | Provision (GB) placed next/later
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.
Today's OR 64 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +18No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
| Date | Course | Going | Pos | Time | Secs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-10-2025 | Southwell (AW) | Standard | 5 | 3:9.89 | 189.9 |
| 15-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) | Standard | 2 | 3:10.92 | 190.9 |
| 20-05-2026 | Yarmouth | Good | 5 | 3:7.06 | 187.1 |
No verified market note available.
Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.
| Date | Course | Pos | Beaten | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-05-2026 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1.5 | Neutral finish |
| 29-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) | 2 | 1.2 | Fast finish |
| 15-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) | 2 | 0.8 | Fast finish |
Last 3 trip times: 3:9.89 | 3:10.92 | 3:7.06
Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 2 | 5
Last distance win context: vs par +2.43s | OR 58 | weight --
| Date | Conditions | Result | SP | OR | Rating | TS | Beaten | Time | FF Timing Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-05-2026 | Yarmouth | 1m6f | Good | Class 5 | 5 | 3/1 | 68 | 62 | 41 | 1.5 | 3:07.06 | AMBER - competitive |
| 29-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) | 2m½f | Standard | Class 5 | 2 | 100/30 | 68 | 75 | 23 | 1.2 | 3:41.38 | GREY - below benchmark |
| 15-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 5 | 2 | 4/1 | 66 | 77 | 22 | 0.8 | 3:10.90 | GREY - below benchmark |
| 31-10-2025 | Southwell (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 5 | 5 | 10/11F | 66 | 65 | 29 | 4.8 | 3:09.69 | GREY - below benchmark |
| 16-10-2025 | Southwell (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 6 | 1 | 7/4F | 58 | 74 | 58 | 0 | 3:07.24 | AMBER - competitive |
| 09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July) | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 5 | 6 | 7/1 | 61 | 50 | 45 | 0.2 | 3:1.13 | GOLD - faster than par |
+18lb FFR vs OR.
Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 87.5 and winning TS par is around 66.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -10.5 | TS edge -43.5. Benchmark fit: -2.1.
Laravie
Closer
Model agreement
3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence
61.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Reliable; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)
Beat: Lady Phoebe (IRE), Merrijig (GB), Angelardo (IRE)
Beat: Zimmerman (GB), Arctic Fox (GB), Wasthatok (GB) | Stellarmasterpiece (FR) won next/later | Zimmerman (GB) placed next/later
Beat: Take The Boat (IRE), Basilette (IRE), Golden Samba (GB) | Basilette (IRE) won next/later | Golden Samba (GB) placed next/later, Take The Boat (IRE) placed next/later
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.
Today's OR 69 | FFR 67 | Best FFR 79 | FFR edge +10No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
| Date | Course | Going | Pos | Time | Secs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-05-2026 | Salisbury | Good To Firm | 1 | 3:7.65 | 187.7 |
Made all - set good pace - faced challenge from over 2f out - wandered around over 1f out - kept on well inside final furlong(op 3/1 tchd 2/1)
No verified market note available.
Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.
| Date | Course | Pos | Beaten | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06-2026 | Pontefract | 1 | 0 | Neutral finish |
| 11-05-2026 | Catterick | 1 | 0 | Fast finish |
| 03-05-2026 | Salisbury | 1 | 0 | Fast finish |
Last 3 trip times: 3:7.65
Last 3 trip positions: 1
Last distance win context: vs par +2.84s | OR 56 | weight --
| Date | Conditions | Result | SP | OR | Rating | TS | Beaten | Time | FF Timing Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06-2026 | Pontefract | 17f | Good | Class 6 | 1 | 7/4F | 65 | -- | -- | 0 | -- | GREY - no timing read |
| 11-05-2026 | Catterick | 2m | Good | Class 6 | 1 | 10/11F | 59 | 71 | 51 | 0 | 3:30.63 | GREY - below benchmark |
| 03-05-2026 | Salisbury | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 6 | 1 | 85/40F | 56 | 66 | 51 | 0 | 3:07.65 | AMBER - competitive |
| 27-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 6 | 5 | 2/1 | 56 | 46 | 22 | 6 | 3:30.04 | GREY - below benchmark |
| 23-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 | 9 | 100/1 | -- | 40 | -- | 0.3 | 1:53.96 | GOLD - faster than par |
| 16-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 | 4 | 66/1 | -- | 53 | -- | 0.3 | 1:53.30 | GOLD - faster than par |
+10lb FFR vs OR.
Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 87.5 and winning TS par is around 66.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -21.5 | TS edge -15.5. Benchmark fit: -2.1.
Captain Brett
Closer
Model agreement
3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence
57.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Reliable; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Improving
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)
Beat: Man Of The Sea (IRE), Assured (GB) | Big Win (FR) won next/later, Buck Barrow (GB) won next/later | Everest (GB) placed next/later
John Galt (FR) won next/later | Vaguely Royal (IRE) placed next/later
Beat: Expressionless (GB), Laser Focus (IRE) | Betelgeuse (IRE) won next/later, Daaris (IRE) won next/later
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.
Today's OR 58 | FFR 69 | Best FFR 80 | FFR edge +22No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
| Date | Course | Going | Pos | Time | Secs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July) | Good To Firm | 8 | 3:4.33 | 184.3 |
| 23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) | Standard | 5 | 3:10.40 | 190.4 |
| 22-05-2026 | Bath | Good To Firm | 8 | 3:2.76 | 182.8 |
Awkward start - held up in rear - some headway over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 4/1)
No verified market note available.
Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.
| Date | Course | Pos | Beaten | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22-05-2026 | Bath | 8 | 1.5 | Neutral finish |
| 23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) | 5 | 3.5 | Neutral finish |
| 09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July) | 8 | 9 | Neutral finish |
Last 3 trip times: 3:4.33 | 3:10.40 | 3:2.76
Last 3 trip positions: 8 | 5 | 8
Last distance win context: vs par +10.53s | OR 54 | weight --
| Date | Conditions | Result | SP | OR | Rating | TS | Beaten | Time | FF Timing Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22-05-2026 | Bath | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 6 | 8 | 14/1 | 60 | 50 | 43 | 1.5 | 3:02.76 | GOLD - faster than par |
| 23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 5 | 5 | 100/30 | 62 | 61 | 30 | 3.5 | 3:10.18 | GREY - below benchmark |
| 09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July) | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 5 | 8 | 7/2F | 63 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 3:5.49 | GREEN - within 1% of par |
| 24-07-2025 | Newbury | 2m | Good To Firm | Class 5 | 3 | 5/2 | 60 | 67 | 39 | 3.2 | 3:30.10 | GREY - below benchmark |
| 16-07-2025 | Bath | 1m6f | Firm | Class 6 | 2 | 7/4 | 60 | 70 | -- | 0 | 3:11.43 | GREY - below benchmark |
| 27-06-2025 | Yarmouth | 1m6f | Good | Class 6 | 1 | 8/13F | 54 | 61 | -- | 0 | 3:15.34 | GREY - below benchmark |
+22lb FFR vs OR.
Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 87.5 and winning TS par is around 66.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -26.5 | TS edge -36.5. Benchmark fit: -2.1.
Took keen hold - midfield - good headway 3f out - challenging 2f out - led 1f out - headed final 110yds - no extra towards finish(op 7/2 tchd 11/4)