ForeFurlongs Intelligence

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Traditional racecard structure, rebuilt with ForeFurlongs context: race synopsis, pace projection, approximate winning time, runner trajectory, draw confidence, distance intelligence and tactical fit.

1:30 | Yarmouth

1:30 | Yarmouth | 14f

Class 5 | Good To Firm | QuinnBet Handicap

Race Confidence 70 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR63.73 rated runners | Top OR 69: Laravie
Winning Time Par3m 04.81s2 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 5.8) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; 1m6f - Stands' side; 1m2f - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-70
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Betelgeuse leads the contextual model at 46.1
  • Clearer top profile: +9.5 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 3m 04.81s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield0
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
BetelgeuseRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 61.7 5-2-2-5-1-6 9-8 1 OR 64 76 +12lb 4/1 +0.3 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 67% 60% 3/6 98 C Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
LaravieRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 61.0 1-1-1-5-9-4 9-13 2 OR 69 67 -2lb 1/3 +5.3 Standard rest Big drop back Modest field 56% 62% 3/6 96 D Workable +10 CAUTION PROFILE
Captain BrettRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 57.0 8-5-8-3-2-1 9-2 3 OR 58 69 +11lb 5/1 -5.7 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 59% 59% 3/6 98 D Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Betelgeuse

Betelgeuse profiles as a front-runner with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 3/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Laravie

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Betelgeuse Front-end controller
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 61.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR76
Speed98
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+12lb ahead of mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.8% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score46.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR76+12lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+18lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.6
Variance Very steady 3.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.6
Ceiling Below requirement -0.5 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Yarmouth Run faded 20-05-2026
2 Southwell (AW) Run faded 29-04-2026
2 Southwell (AW) Finished well 15-04-2026
5 Southwell (AW) Run faded 31-10-2025
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 16-10-2025
6 Newmarket (July) Run faded 09-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

6
20-05-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 5

Beat: Golden Garden (USA)

29-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Volcanic Rock (IRE), Dollars Dream (IRE), Westlain (IRE) | Dollars Dream (IRE) placed next/later

15-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Provision (GB), Moon Chime (GB), Mio Amico (GB) | Moon Chime (GB) won next/later, Shipshape (IRE) won next/later | Provision (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 67% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 39%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Pace shape Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating50
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 64
Good 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 62
Fast 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 69
All-weather 5 1W / 3P Peak rating 77
Placement evidence 60% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 70%
Class fit 19%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 42%
6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +18lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +18lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +18lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 64 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +18
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer S Woods
Jockey Daniel Muscutt
Age 4
Draw 1
OR 64
Avg OR 63.7
OR vs Field +0.3
Rating 75
TS 23
Form 15-225
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 105.8% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m6f
Runs at profile6
DEIC
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
31-10-2025 Southwell (AW) Standard 5 3:9.89 189.9
15-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 2 3:10.92 190.9
20-05-2026 Yarmouth Good 5 3:7.06 187.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 29 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP3/1 OwnerMrs C Campbell
Sire Almanzor Dam Loyale Damsire Turtle Bowl
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Took keen hold - midfield - good headway 3f out - challenging 2f out - led 1f out - headed final 110yds - no extra towards finish(op 7/2 tchd 11/4)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
20-05-2026 Yarmouth 5 1.5 Neutral finish
29-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 2 1.2 Fast finish
15-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 2 0.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 50 OR 61
16-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 74 OR 58
31-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 65 OR 66
15-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 77 OR 66
29-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 75 OR 68
20-05-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating 62 OR 68
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 3:9.89 | 3:10.92 | 3:7.06

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 2 | 5

Approx winning time3m 04.81s
Last win at trip3:07.24 | Southwell (AW) | 16-10-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +2.43s | OR 58 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
20-05-2026 Yarmouth | 1m6f | Good | Class 5 5 3/1 68 62 41 1.5 3:07.06 AMBER - competitive
29-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 2m½f | Standard | Class 5 2 100/30 68 75 23 1.2 3:41.38 GREY - below benchmark
15-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 5 2 4/1 66 77 22 0.8 3:10.90 GREY - below benchmark
31-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 5 5 10/11F 66 65 29 4.8 3:09.69 GREY - below benchmark
16-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 6 1 7/4F 58 74 58 0 3:07.24 AMBER - competitive
09-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 5 6 7/1 61 50 45 0.2 3:1.13 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+18lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 87.5 and winning TS par is around 66.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -10.5 | TS edge -43.5. Benchmark fit: -2.1.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Laravie Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 61.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR67
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-2lb near mark
FFR 67 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score36.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR67-2lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWorkable mark+10lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +1.0
Variance Reliable 5.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Below requirement -3.5 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Pontefract Strong run 08-06-2026
1 Catterick Strong run 11-05-2026
1 Salisbury Strong run 03-05-2026
5 Lingfield (AW) Below best 27-04-2026
9 Wolverhampton (AW) Competitive 23-03-2026
4 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 16-03-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

7
08-06-2026 | Pontefract Finished 1

Beat: Lady Phoebe (IRE), Merrijig (GB), Angelardo (IRE)

11-05-2026 | Catterick Finished 1

Beat: Zimmerman (GB), Arctic Fox (GB), Wasthatok (GB) | Stellarmasterpiece (FR) won next/later | Zimmerman (GB) placed next/later

03-05-2026 | Salisbury Finished 1

Beat: Take The Boat (IRE), Basilette (IRE), Golden Samba (GB) | Basilette (IRE) won next/later | Golden Samba (GB) placed next/later, Take The Boat (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 39%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating66
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 5 0W / 3P Peak rating 106
Good 11 6W / 6P Peak rating 117
Fast 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 98
All-weather 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 53
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 57%
Class fit 19%
Mark room 82%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +10lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +10lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +10lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 69 | FFR 67 | Best FFR 79 | FFR edge +10
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer James Owen
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa
Age 7
Draw 2
OR 69
Avg OR 63.7
OR vs Field +5.3
Rating 66
TS 51
Form 495111
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m6f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
03-05-2026 Salisbury Good To Firm 1 3:7.65 187.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 10 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: v; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/4F OwnerLaravie Partnership
Sire Sans Frontieres Dam Lohort Castle Damsire Presenting
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Made all - set good pace - faced challenge from over 2f out - wandered around over 1f out - kept on well inside final furlong(op 3/1 tchd 2/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
08-06-2026 Pontefract 1 0 Neutral finish
11-05-2026 Catterick 1 0 Fast finish
03-05-2026 Salisbury 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 3 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
16-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 53 OR Unrated
23-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 40 OR Unrated
27-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 46 OR 56
03-05-2026 | Salisbury
Rating 66 OR 56
11-05-2026 | Catterick
Rating 71 OR 59
08-06-2026 | Pontefract
Rating -- OR 65
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 3:7.65

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time3m 04.81s
Last win at trip3:07.65 | Salisbury | 03-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +2.84s | OR 56 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
08-06-2026 Pontefract | 17f | Good | Class 6 1 7/4F 65 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
11-05-2026 Catterick | 2m | Good | Class 6 1 10/11F 59 71 51 0 3:30.63 GREY - below benchmark
03-05-2026 Salisbury | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 6 1 85/40F 56 66 51 0 3:07.65 AMBER - competitive
27-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 6 5 2/1 56 46 22 6 3:30.04 GREY - below benchmark
23-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 9 100/1 -- 40 -- 0.3 1:53.96 GOLD - faster than par
16-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 4 66/1 -- 53 -- 0.3 1:53.30 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+10lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 87.5 and winning TS par is around 66.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -21.5 | TS edge -15.5. Benchmark fit: -2.1.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Captain Brett Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 57.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR69
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+11lb ahead of mark
FFR 69 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.3% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score27.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR69+11lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+22lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Improving

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Reliable 7.6% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Below requirement -2.4 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Bath Competitive 22-05-2026
5 Southwell (AW) Run faded 23-04-2026
8 Newmarket (July) Below best 09-08-2025
3 Newbury Run faded 24-07-2025
2 Bath Strong run 16-07-2025
1 Yarmouth Finished well 27-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

18
22-05-2026 | Bath Finished 8

Beat: Man Of The Sea (IRE), Assured (GB) | Big Win (FR) won next/later, Buck Barrow (GB) won next/later | Everest (GB) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 5

John Galt (FR) won next/later | Vaguely Royal (IRE) placed next/later

09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July) Finished 8

Beat: Expressionless (GB), Laser Focus (IRE) | Betelgeuse (IRE) won next/later, Daaris (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 59% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 39%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs4/6
Best similar rating70
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 61
Fast 6 0W / 3P Peak rating 70
All-weather 6 0W / 2P Peak rating 61
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 19%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 50%
6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +22lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +22lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +22lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 58 | FFR 69 | Best FFR 80 | FFR edge +22
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer David Simcock
Jockey Marco Ghiani
Age 4
Draw 3
OR 58
Avg OR 63.7
OR vs Field -5.7
Rating 61
TS 30
Form 238-58
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 105.3% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 24.53s recorded | FSP 105.3%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m6f
Runs at profile6
DEID
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
09-08-2025 Newmarket (July) Good To Firm 8 3:4.33 184.3
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 5 3:10.40 190.4
22-05-2026 Bath Good To Firm 8 3:2.76 182.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 11% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 27 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.8 trainer RTF cold at 11%; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP14/1 OwnerJohn Cook & Partner
Sire Sea The Moon Dam Silver Step Damsire Silver Frost
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Awkward start - held up in rear - some headway over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 4/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 4.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
22-05-2026 Bath 8 1.5 Neutral finish
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 5 3.5 Neutral finish
09-08-2025 Newmarket (July) 8 9 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
27-06-2025 | Yarmouth
Rating 61 OR 54
16-07-2025 | Bath
Rating 70 OR 60
24-07-2025 | Newbury
Rating 67 OR 60
09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 19 OR 63
23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 61 OR 62
22-05-2026 | Bath
Rating 50 OR 60
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 3:4.33 | 3:10.40 | 3:2.76

Last 3 trip positions: 8 | 5 | 8

Approx winning time3m 04.81s
Last win at trip3:15.34 | Yarmouth | 27-06-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +10.53s | OR 54 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
22-05-2026 Bath | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 6 8 14/1 60 50 43 1.5 3:02.76 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 5 5 100/30 62 61 30 3.5 3:10.18 GREY - below benchmark
09-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 5 8 7/2F 63 19 15 9 3:5.49 GREEN - within 1% of par
24-07-2025 Newbury | 2m | Good To Firm | Class 5 3 5/2 60 67 39 3.2 3:30.10 GREY - below benchmark
16-07-2025 Bath | 1m6f | Firm | Class 6 2 7/4 60 70 -- 0 3:11.43 GREY - below benchmark
27-06-2025 Yarmouth | 1m6f | Good | Class 6 1 8/13F 54 61 -- 0 3:15.34 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+22lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 87.5 and winning TS par is around 66.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -26.5 | TS edge -36.5. Benchmark fit: -2.1.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
1:40 | Ripon

1:40 | Ripon | 12f

Class 6 | Good | Ripon Racecourse Ladies' Derby Handicap (For Female Amateur Jockeys) (Special Rider Conditions)

Race Confidence 66 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR54.312 rated runners | Top OR 64: Pride Of Nepal
Winning Time Par2m 36.83s7 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3)Stalls Straight - Stands' side; Round - Inside; 1m4f - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-60
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Kitsune Power leads the contextual model at 37.0
  • Winning-time par: 2m 36.83s
Race shape Controlled tactical race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 2 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent2
Midfield5
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Kitsune PowerRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 68.9 2-4-3-3-6-5 10-8 5 OR 59 85 +26lb 3/1 +4.7 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 62% 73% 3/6 101 D Well in +26 PRICE DEPENDENT
Jack LangleyRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 62.3 6-4-2-1-3-1 10-8 9 OR 59 66 +7lb 4/1 +4.7 Layoff check Big drop back Weak field 67% 72% 5/6 81 A Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
Pride Of NepalRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 61.4 1-1-1-7-6-6 10-13 4 OR 64 71 +7lb 5/2 +9.7 Quick return Big step up Weak field 62% 73% 3/6 105 B Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
Max Of StarsRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 56.0 3-1-3-1-4 10-7 2 OR 58 112 +54lb 5/1 +3.7 Rest developing Big drop back Weak field 61% 71% 2/6 99 C Well in +54 PRICE DEPENDENT
One Million DreamsRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 49.0 9-10-3-11-4 10-9 6 OR 60 62 +2lb 25/1 +5.7 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 65% 71% 3/6 84 B Well in +41 CAUTION PROFILE
BoubouleRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 24.6 7-7-7-5-2 10-4 11 OR 55 73 +18lb 40/1 +0.7 Rest developing Big drop back Weak field 60% 62% 2/6 89 D Well in +46 CAUTION PROFILE
YakhabarRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 14.3 11-3-4-1-9-10 9-12 1 OR 49 34 -15lb 8/1 -5.3 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 70% 72% 4/6 89 A Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Bruce BannerRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 10.2 3-2-5-3-1 10-4 3 OR 55 71 +16lb 6/1 +0.7 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 61% 66% 1/6 93 C Well in +66 CAUTION PROFILE
ArranmoreRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 6.2 6-5-2-1-5-4 10-0 12 OR 51 52 +1lb 10/1 -3.3 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 55% 57% 2/6 98 D Well in +30 CAUTION PROFILE
SpeechmanRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 4.8 8-9-11-7-11-4 9-13 10 OR 50 44 -6lb 25/1 -4.3 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 56% 60% 1/6 94 E Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Apache EagleRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 4.5 9-3-3-7-2-3 9-9 8 OR 46 38 -8lb 18/1 -8.3 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 55% 58% 2/6 99 D Well in +33 CAUTION PROFILE
YurinovRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 0.9 4-6-5-7-4-6 9-9 7 OR 46 69 +23lb 20/1 -8.3 Layoff check Same trip Weak field 52% 48% 1/6 96 E Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Kitsune Power

Kitsune Power profiles as a prominent with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 3/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Jack Langley

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Kitsune Power Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 68.9
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR85
Speed101
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+26lb ahead of mark
FFR 85 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.2% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score37.0raw
Agreement3/6
FFR85+26lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+26lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Variable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +2.9
Variance Variable 11.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.6
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 15 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Beverley Strong run 27-05-2026
4 Redcar Run faded 07-05-2026
3 Beverley Run faded 23-04-2026
3 Catterick Run faded 08-04-2026
6 Musselburgh Run faded 05-11-2025
5 Catterick Run faded 18-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

11
27-05-2026 | Beverley Finished 2

Beat: Dawn Of Liberation (IRE), Triple Force (GB), Hibernate (IRE) | Triple Force (GB) placed next/later

07-05-2026 | Redcar Finished 4

Beat: Coverbridge (GB), Grazeon Sunshine (GB) | Tupero (GB) won next/later | Bruce Banner (IRE) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Beverley Finished 3

Beat: Dr Rio (FR), Iwantmytimewithyou (GB), Valley Of Flowers (IRE) | Iwantmytimewithyou (GB) won next/later, Naval Tribute (GB) won next/later | Dr Rio (FR) placed next/later, Freddy Robinson (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 59%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating68
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 11 0W / 2P Peak rating 82
Good 9 0W / 4P Peak rating 82
Fast 8 1W / 5P Peak rating 86
All-weather 5 0W / 1P Peak rating 99
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 60%
Class fit 64%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
11 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +26lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +26lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +26lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 59 | FFR 85 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +26
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tim Easterby
Jockey Miss Rebecca Burley
Age 7
Draw 5
OR 59
Avg OR 54.3
OR vs Field +4.7
Rating 67
TS 60
Form 6-3342
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 12 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.2% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 28.41s recorded | FSP 100.2%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile11
DEID
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
25-09-2025 Pontefract Good To Soft 3 2:44.11 164.1
08-04-2026 Catterick Good 3 2:34.51 154.5
23-04-2026 Beverley Good To Firm 3 2:35.72 155.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 43% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 22 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/1 OwnerReality Partnerships XV
Sire Holy Roman Emperor Dam Fire Heroine Damsire Pivotal
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent - in touch with leaders 7f out - carried left but headway over 2f out - chased clear leader inside final furlong - weakened gradually final 110yds(op 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
27-05-2026 Beverley 2 1 Fast finish
07-05-2026 Redcar 4 0.1 Run faded
23-04-2026 Beverley 3 1.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 5 of 6 runs with an official OR.
18-10-2025 | Catterick
Rating 67 OR 66
05-11-2025 | Musselburgh
Rating 58 OR 64
08-04-2026 | Catterick
Rating 68 OR 62
23-04-2026 | Beverley
Rating 67 OR 62
07-05-2026 | Redcar
Rating 66 OR 61
27-05-2026 | Beverley
Rating 66 OR 59
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip11 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 2:44.11 | 2:34.51 | 2:35.72

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 3 | 3

Approx winning time2m 36.83s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
27-05-2026 Beverley | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 5 2 9/1 59 66 32 1 2:04.66 GOLD - faster than par
07-05-2026 Redcar | 1m6f | Good | Class 5 4 3/1 61 66 2 0.1 3:06.95 GREY - below benchmark
23-04-2026 Beverley | 1m4f | Good To Firm | Class 5 3 9/2 62 67 49 1.2 2:35.72 GOLD - faster than par
08-04-2026 Catterick | 1m4f | Good | Class 6 3 11/4F 62 68 60 1.2 2:34.51 GOLD - faster than par
05-11-2025 Musselburgh | 1m4½f | Soft | Class 5 6 12/1 64 58 3 0.1 3:01.20 GREY - below benchmark
18-10-2025 Catterick | 1m6f | Good | Class 5 5 9/1 66 67 23 1.5 3:12.71 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+26lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 66.1 and winning TS par is around 56.5. Runner versus par: rating edge +1.9 | TS edge +3.5. Benchmark fit: 1.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Jack Langley Midfield
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 62.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR66
Speed81
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 66 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
81 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.8% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskTop of the market is compressed
Model Score39.6raw
Agreement5/6
FFR66+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore81Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+26lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Regressing

confidence nudge +0.3
Variance Reliable 8.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.2
Ceiling Par capable 4.9 vs par
Curve Regressing Trend -2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 27-03-2026
4 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 24-01-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 03-01-2026
1 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 03-12-2025
3 Chelmsford (AW) Run faded 23-10-2025
1 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 14-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

23
27-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Forglen (GB), Izakaya (GER), Sneaky Blinder (FR) | Balgowan (IRE) won next/later | Charles Morin (GB) placed next/later, The Craftymaster (GB) placed next/later

24-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Sonnerie Power (FR), Forca Timao (IRE), Enough Already (GB) | Bohemian Breeze (IRE) won next/later, Little Miss India (IRE) won next/later | Hebridean Nomad (GB) placed next/later, Sonnerie Power (FR) placed next/later

03-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Mr Nugget (GB), Spaceage Love Song (IRE), Dubai Harbour (GB) | Kaaress (IRE) won next/later, Mio Amico (GB) won next/later | Dubai Harbour (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 67% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 53%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 40
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 56
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 12 3W / 6P Peak rating 66
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 53%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A)9 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +26lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +26lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +26lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 59 | FFR 66 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +26
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Simon Dow
Jockey Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell
Age 4
Draw 9
OR 59
Avg OR 54.3
OR vs Field +4.7
Rating 62
TS 57
Form 31-246
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 12 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.8% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 25.17s recorded | FSP 100.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile9
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
14-10-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 1 2:31.53 151.5
03-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard To Slow 2 2:33.78 153.8
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 4 2:32.33 152.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 60% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 83 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 trainer RTF positive at 60%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP3/1 OwnerS Dow
Sire Time Test Dam Indira Damsire Sleeping Indian
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Midfield on inner - some headway 1f out - weakened inside final 110yds(op 5/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
27-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) 6 1.5 Neutral finish
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) 4 1.8 Neutral finish
03-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 6 of 6 runs with an official OR.
14-10-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 63 OR 51
23-10-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 63 OR 57
03-12-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 66 OR 55
03-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 66 OR 59
24-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 62 OR 60
27-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 62 OR 60
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 2:31.53 | 2:33.78 | 2:32.33

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2 | 4

Approx winning time2m 36.83s
Last win at trip2:31.53 | Lingfield (AW) | 14-10-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -5.3s | OR 51 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
27-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 6 6 3/1 60 62 -- 1.5 3:34.74 GREY - below benchmark
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 4 5/2F 60 62 57 1.8 2:32.33 GOLD - faster than par
03-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard To Slow | Class 6 2 6/4J 59 66 46 0.5 2:33.76 GOLD - faster than par
03-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 1m5f | Standard | Class 6 1 15/8F 55 66 42 0 2:46.99 GREY - below benchmark
23-10-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 6 3 5/4F 57 63 6 1.5 3:37.21 GREY - below benchmark
14-10-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 1 3/1F 51 63 54 0 2:31.53 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+26lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 66.1 and winning TS par is around 56.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -0.1 | TS edge +0.5. Benchmark fit: 0.6.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Pride Of Nepal Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 61.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR71
Speed105
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 71 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
105 Par 100
FSP%even finish
99.8% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score30.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR71+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore105Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+20lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; Bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +3.4
Variance Very steady 4.4% volatility
Bounce Bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.7
Ceiling Par capable 5.2 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Chepstow Strong run 15-06-2026
1 Lingfield Strong run 30-05-2026
1 Windsor Strong run 23-05-2026
7 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 17-02-2026
6 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 02-02-2026
6 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 24-01-2026
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

4
15-06-2026 | Chepstow Finished 1

Beat: Alazwar (IRE), The Pug (IRE), Showmedemoney (IRE)

30-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 1

Beat: Shifra (IRE), Cezarro (IRE), Duke Orsino (GB)

23-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 1

Beat: Guinness Lad (IRE), Galactic Glow (IRE), Masqool (IRE) | Guinness Lad (IRE) won next/later | Galactic Glow (IRE) placed next/later, Night Bear (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 38%
Pace shape 55%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 1W / 2P Peak rating 68
Good 9 1W / 3P Peak rating 67
Fast 11 3W / 7P Peak rating 70
All-weather 14 0W / 2P Peak rating 77
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 21%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (B)12 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +20lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +20lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +20lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 64 | FFR 71 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge +20
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tony Carroll
Jockey Miss Sarah Bowen
Age 8
Draw 4
OR 64
Avg OR 54.3
OR vs Field +9.7
Rating 48
TS 32
Form 667111
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 14 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 99.8% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 26.63s recorded | FSP 99.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile12
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
17-07-2025 Epsom Good To Firm 2 2:42.37 162.4
31-08-2025 Brighton Good 8 2:38.76 158.8
02-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 6 2:42.51 162.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 58% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 3 days Quick return
Micro score +0.5 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP2/1F OwnerMrs S Bowen
Sire The Gurkha Dam Best Regards Damsire Tamayuz
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Slowly away - in rear - brief headway against far rail over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 12/1 tchd 11/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
15-06-2026 Chepstow 1 0 Neutral finish
30-05-2026 Lingfield 1 0 Neutral finish
23-05-2026 Windsor 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 4 runs with an official OR.
24-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 49 OR 55
02-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 48 OR 55
17-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 48 OR 53
23-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 64 OR 51
30-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating -- OR 57
15-06-2026 | Chepstow
Rating -- OR 60
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip12 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 2:42.37 | 2:38.76 | 2:42.51

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 8 | 6

Approx winning time2m 36.83s
Last win at trip2:35.90 | Brighton | 01-09-2024

Last distance win context: vs par -0.93s | OR 61 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
15-06-2026 Chepstow | 10f | Good To Soft | Class 6 1 2/1F 60 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
30-05-2026 Lingfield | 10f | Good To Firm | Class 6 1 11/8F 57 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
23-05-2026 Windsor | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 6 1 16/1 51 64 44 0 2:06.98 GOLD - faster than par
17-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 6 7 14/1 53 48 26 2 3:06.12 GREY - below benchmark
02-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 6 14/1 55 48 32 4 2:42.51 GREY - below benchmark
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 6 17/2 55 49 7 0.3 2:09.11 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+20lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 66.1 and winning TS par is around 56.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -7.1 | TS edge -24.5. Benchmark fit: -2.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Max Of Stars Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 56.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement2/6
FFR112
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+54lb ahead of mark
FFR 112 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.1% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score38.0raw
Agreement2/6
FFR112+54lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+54lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Cooling

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.8
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 12.4 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
-- Stratford Steady run 19-04-2026
3 Wetherby Solid effort 01-11-2025
1 Wetherby Strong run 15-10-2025
3 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 26-09-2025
1 Thirsk Strong run 15-09-2025
4 Newton Abbot Run faded 21-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

11
01-11-2025 | Wetherby Finished 3

Beat: Takeit Easy (GB), Inappropriate (IRE), Kientzheim (FR) | Kientzheim (FR) won next/later, Saligo Bay (IRE) won next/later | Half A Chance (IRE) placed next/later, Inappropriate (IRE) placed next/later

15-10-2025 | Wetherby Finished 1

Beat: Paddys Policy (IRE), Saligo Bay (IRE), Evaluation (GB) | Saligo Bay (IRE) won next/later | Caelan (IRE) placed next/later, Paddys Policy (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 61% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs4/6
Best similar rating117
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 108
Good 19 7W / 13P Peak rating 117
Fast 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 52
All-weather 6 0W / 1P Peak rating 62
Placement evidence 71% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 63%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +54lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +54lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +54lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 58 | FFR 112 | Best FFR 112 | FFR edge +54
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ollie Pears
Jockey Miss Chelsea Brooks
Age 6
Draw 2
OR 58
Avg OR 54.3
OR vs Field +3.7
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form /9613-
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 105.1% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 27.10s recorded | FSP 105.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
20-01-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 9 2:42.35 162.3
12-05-2025 Catterick Good To Firm 6 2:36.48 156.5
15-09-2025 Thirsk Soft 1 2:45.32 165.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 30% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness -- Freshness data unavailable
Micro score -0.5 trainer RTF quiet at 30%; wind surgery noted; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindFirst run after wind surgery Latest SP11/2 OwnerMrs S D Pearson & Ollie Pears
Sire Cloth Of Stars Dam Mooizo Damsire Rock Of Gibraltar
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-04-2026 Stratford -- -- Neutral finish
01-11-2025 Wetherby 3 1 Fast finish
15-10-2025 Wetherby 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
21-08-2025 | Newton Abbot
Rating 99 OR 118
15-09-2025 | Thirsk
Rating 62 OR 51
26-09-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 58 OR 51
15-10-2025 | Wetherby
Rating 117 OR 115
01-11-2025 | Wetherby
Rating 117 OR 117
19-04-2026 | Stratford
Rating -- OR 117
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:42.35 | 2:36.48 | 2:45.32

Last 3 trip positions: 9 | 6 | 1

Approx winning time2m 36.83s
Last win at trip2:45.32 | Thirsk | 15-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +8.49s | OR 51 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-04-2026 Stratford | 2m½f | Good | Class 4 -- 11/2 117 -- -- -- - GREY - no timing read
01-11-2025 Wetherby | 2m | Good | Class 3 3 3/1 117 117 81 1 3:48.56 GREY - below benchmark
15-10-2025 Wetherby | 2m | Good | Class 3 1 9/2 115 117 85 0 3:42.40 GREY - below benchmark
26-09-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 3 100/30 51 58 40 0.3 2:12.01 GOLD - faster than par
15-09-2025 Thirsk | 1m4f | Soft | Class 6 1 3/1F 51 62 14 0 2:45.32 GREY - below benchmark
21-08-2025 Newton Abbot | 2m1f | Good | Class 4 4 9/2 118 99 64 20 4:0.59 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+54lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 66.1 and winning TS par is around 56.5. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
One Million Dreams Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 49.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR62
Speed84
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+2lb near mark
FFR 62 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
84 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
113.8% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score27.9raw
Agreement3/6
FFR62+2lb vs OR
SpeedScore84Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+41lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Cooling

confidence nudge +1.0
Variance Reliable 5.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.6
Ceiling Below requirement -2.7 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Salisbury Below best 23-05-2026
10 Newbury Below best 15-05-2026
3 Yarmouth Solid effort 28-04-2026
11 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 27-03-2026
-- Market Rasen Run faded 16-01-2026
4 Huntingdon Below best 22-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

12
23-05-2026 | Salisbury Finished 9

Beat: Cinammon Coco (IRE) | First Officer (IRE) placed next/later, Yaa Min (GB) placed next/later

15-05-2026 | Newbury Finished 10

Beat: Educator (GB), Simiyann (IRE), Vilaine Verlaine (GB) | Amancio (GB) won next/later, Curran (IRE) won next/later | Educator (GB) placed next/later, Percy Jones (GB) placed next/later

28-04-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 3

Beat: Atlantic Sunset (IRE) | Sword Of Wessex (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 65% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 41%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating64
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 8 0W / 3P Peak rating 97
Good 7 1W / 2P Peak rating 74
Fast 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 66
All-weather 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 72
Placement evidence 71% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 34%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (B)5 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +41lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +41lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +41lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 60 | FFR 62 | Best FFR 101 | FFR edge +41
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Archie Watson
Jockey Miss Brodie Hampson
Age 6
Draw 6
OR 60
Avg OR 54.3
OR vs Field +5.7
Rating 64
TS 14
Form 2-0309
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 5 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 113.8% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.54s recorded | FSP 113.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile5
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
13-09-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 2 2:33.95 153.9
15-05-2026 Newbury Good 10 2:35.64 155.6
23-05-2026 Salisbury Good 9 2:45.28 165.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 41% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP40/1 OwnerJuxtaposition Records
Sire No Risk At All Dam Indian Lizzy Damsire Tobougg
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Held up in rear - outpaced 3f out - rallied and kept on inside final furlong - no match for first two(op 5/1 tchd 4/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 8.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 Salisbury 9 17 Neutral finish
15-05-2026 Newbury 10 4.2 Neutral finish
28-04-2026 Yarmouth 3 3.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 5 runs with an official OR.
22-12-2025 | Huntingdon
Rating 72 OR 92
16-01-2026 | Market Rasen
Rating -- OR 90
27-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 47 OR 66
28-04-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating 64 OR 65
15-05-2026 | Newbury
Rating 29 OR 64
23-05-2026 | Salisbury
Rating 33 OR 62
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 2:33.95 | 2:35.64 | 2:45.28

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 10 | 9

Approx winning time2m 36.83s
Last win at trip2:34.97 | Brighton | 31-08-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -1.86s | OR 62 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 Salisbury | 1m4f | Good | Class 4 9 40/1 62 33 -- 17 2:45.28 GREY - below benchmark
15-05-2026 Newbury | 1m4f | Good | Class 5 10 28/1 64 29 21 4.2 2:35.64 GOLD - faster than par
28-04-2026 Yarmouth | 1m3½f | Good | Class 5 3 9/2 65 64 9 3.5 2:29.04 GOLD - faster than par
27-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 5 11 9/1 66 47 14 5 2:09.73 GOLD - faster than par
16-01-2026 Market Rasen | 2m1f | Soft | Class 5 -- 33/1 90 -- -- -- - GREY - no timing read
22-12-2025 Huntingdon | 2m4f | Good To Soft | Class 5 4 16/1 92 72 42 16 5:21.35 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+41lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 66.1 and winning TS par is around 56.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -2.1 | TS edge -42.5. Benchmark fit: -1.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Bouboule Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 24.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Yakhabar Front-end controller
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 14.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bruce Banner Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Arranmore Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 6.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Speechman Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Apache Eagle Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 4.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Yurinov Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

2:05 | Yarmouth

2:05 | Yarmouth | 6f

Class 4 | Good To Firm | Download The QuinnBet App EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 18 WATCH ONLY
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR--0 rated runners | No official ratings yet
Winning Time Par1m 10.86s8 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 5.8) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; 1m6f - Stands' side; 1m2f - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionWATCH ONLY
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos medium
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Blue Flight leads the contextual model at 5.0
  • Winning-time par: 1m 10.86s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 10 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent0
Midfield0
Hold-up0
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Blue FlightRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 10.0 -- 9-2 3 OR -- -- -- 9/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 52% 54% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Spirit TangoRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 8.0 -- 9-2 5 OR -- -- -- 3/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Faith In FlorenceRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 4.0 -- 9-2 6 OR -- -- -- 4/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
DownonmainstreetRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-2 2 OR -- -- -- 14/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 52% 54% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Musical ForceRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-2 1 OR -- -- -- 12/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 52% 54% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
DannahueRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-2 7 OR -- -- -- 6/4 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 47% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
YumuriRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.2 5 9-2 9 OR -- 75 -- 17/2 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 44% 45% 0/6 88 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Tansy LaneRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.0 -- 9-2 4 OR -- -- -- 10/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
EnamoredRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.0 -- 9-2 8 OR -- -- -- 22/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 47% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Attack AttackRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -1.2 11 9-2 10 OR -- 41 -- 33/1 -- Standard rest Down in trip Field strength developing 44% 51% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Main Context Fit Blue Flight

Blue Flight profiles as a unclear with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is UNKNOWN. Model alignment is 0/6. Draw data adds a small confidence boost. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Spirit Tango

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Blue Flight Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Spirit Tango Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Faith In Florence Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Downonmainstreet Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Musical Force Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dannahue Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Yumuri Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Tansy Lane Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Enamored Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Attack Attack Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

2:15 | Ripon

2:15 | Ripon | 6f

Class 5 | Good | Live For Today Best Dressed Gentleman EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (B/C/D) (Qual') (GBB/IRE Inc')

Race Confidence 16 WATCH ONLY
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR--0 rated runners | No official ratings yet
Winning Time Par1m 12.05s21 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3)Stalls Straight - Stands' side; Round - Inside; 1m4f - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionWATCH ONLY
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos medium
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Wong Fei Hong leads the contextual model at 6.0
  • Winning-time par: 1m 12.05s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 8 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield2
Hold-up0
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Wong Fei HongRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 8.0 -- 9-4 3 OR -- -- -- 5/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Super AlphaRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 5.8 5-3 9-4 2 OR -- 80 -- 9/4 -- Freshened up Up in trip Field strength developing 44% 42% 0/6 89 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Printing MoneyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 5.2 9 9-7 7 OR -- 67 -- 4/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 46% 49% 0/6 90 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Johns PowerRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 4.5 -- 9-1 9 OR -- -- -- 14/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Carry On ChaosRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 4.2 9-8 9-1 11 OR -- 35 -- 80/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 48% 48% 0/6 95 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Inns And OutRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.5 5 9-1 6 OR -- 72 -- 9/2 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 46% 49% 0/6 -- E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Pj's CornerRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.2 8 9-4 4 OR -- 44 -- 40/1 -- Standard rest Down in trip Field strength developing 46% 50% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
PersazzRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 -- 9-7 8 OR -- -- -- 4/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
BigaloRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 6 9-1 5 OR -- 68 -- 25/1 -- Standard rest Up in trip Field strength developing 46% 50% 0/6 88 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
State Of GoldRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style -1.5 7-5-8 8-13 1 OR -- 79 -- 13/2 -- Quick return Up in trip Field strength developing 47% 37% 1/6 84 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
BoutblummintimeRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style -4.0 6-6 9-4 10 OR -- 65 -- 14/1 -- Freshened up Same trip Field strength developing 42% 40% 0/6 85 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Wong Fei Hong

Wong Fei Hong profiles as a unclear with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is UNKNOWN. Model alignment is 0/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Super Alpha

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Wong Fei Hong Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Super Alpha Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Printing Money Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Johns Power Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Carry On Chaos Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Inns And Out Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Pj's Corner Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Persazz Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bigalo Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

State Of Gold Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Boutblummintime Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

2:30 | Ascot

2:30 | Ascot | 7f

Class 1 | Good To Firm | Chesham Stakes (Listed Race)

Race Confidence 73 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR--0 rated runners | No official ratings yet
Winning Time Par1m 27.31s7 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.9, Centre 8.7, Far side 8.5, Round 7.6) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; Round - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos medium
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Bayside leads the contextual model at 31.6
  • Clearer top profile: +6.1 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 27.31s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race Hold-up profile may be pace-compromised. 14 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent0
Midfield0
Hold-up1
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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BaysideRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 70.0 6-1-3 9-0 11 OR -- 78 -- 80/1 -- Freshened up Up in trip Field strength developing 46% 46% 3/6 96 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Sea VentureRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 30.2 1 9-0 9 OR -- 91 -- 7/1 -- Standard rest Up in trip Field strength developing 52% 65% 1/6 98 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Time For The MoonRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 28.5 1-3 9-5 12 OR -- 87 -- 17/2 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 51% 55% 0/6 89 C Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Sword SaluteRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 23.2 1-3 9-5 1 OR -- 86 -- 40/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 48% 48% 0/6 92 C Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Aix La ChapelleRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 19.4 1 9-5 7 OR -- 81 -- 15/8 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 47% 50% 0/6 -- D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
RevelsRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 17.6 1 9-5 2 OR -- 88 -- 10/1 -- Freshened up Same trip Field strength developing 47% 55% 0/6 95 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
AperollRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 17.4 1 9-0 6 OR -- 86 -- 17/2 -- Standard rest Down in trip Field strength developing 47% 49% 0/6 -- D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Nola SoulRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 16.2 1 9-5 13 OR -- 87 -- 9/2 -- Freshened up Same trip Field strength developing 49% 54% 1/6 102 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Celtic CharioteerRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 16.1 1-9 9-5 4 OR -- 87 -- 33/1 -- Standard rest Up in trip Field strength developing 47% 55% 0/6 96 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
PikachuRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 15.2 2 9-5 15 OR -- 93 -- 18/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 50% 54% 0/6 -- D Developing WATCH ONLY
Whispering MoonRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 9.4 3 9-5 8 OR -- 80 -- 33/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 44% 44% 0/6 -- E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Sydney CartonRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 8.9 3 9-5 3 OR -- 80 -- 80/1 -- Standard rest Trip move developing Field strength developing 43% 43% 1/6 91 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
RomanzaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.7 4 9-5 14 OR -- 79 -- 50/1 -- Freshened up Up in trip Field strength developing 46% 45% 0/6 94 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
On Just TermsRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 -- 9-5 10 OR -- -- -- 33/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 48% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
South DakotaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.4 4 9-5 5 OR -- 71 -- 11/2 -- Standard rest Up in trip Field strength developing 43% 40% 0/6 86 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Bayside

Bayside profiles as a closer with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is E. Model alignment is 3/6. Hold-up profile may be pace-compromised

Main Danger Sea Venture

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Bayside Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 70.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR78
Speed96
ConditionsCaution
PlacementCaution
FFR vs ORperformance rating
FFR 78 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score31.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR78pounds rating
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapEvidence developing--
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +2.5
Variance Very steady 4.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Nottingham Run faded 09-05-2026
1 Beverley Strong run 15-04-2026
3 Bath Solid effort 05-04-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

13
09-05-2026 | Nottingham Finished 6

Beat: Sahara Lake (GB) | Angel Sense (GB) placed next/later, Knock Three Times (IRE) placed next/later

15-04-2026 | Beverley Finished 1

Beat: Bellatina (GB), Lady Blanche (IRE), Lady Dublin (GB) | Lady Blanche (IRE) won next/later, Pageant Girl (IRE) won next/later

05-04-2026 | Bath Finished 3

Beat: Paper View (IRE), Dei Gratia Regina (IRE), Innichen (ITY) | Dowman (IRE) won next/later, Innichen (ITY) won next/later | Dei Gratia Regina (IRE) placed next/later, Wait Geordie (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 46% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 38%
Class 32%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 50%
Best fit Pace shape Question Class
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 76
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 65
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 46% Intent unclear
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 10%
Mark room 50%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 58%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concernOfficial-mark evidence incomplete
Mark read Mark edge unavailable Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Evidence developing --

There is not enough official-mark evidence to make a firm handicap judgement.

Today's OR Unrated | FFR 78 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge --
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Rod Millman
Jockey Lewis Edmunds
Age 2
Draw 11
OR Unrated
Avg OR --
OR vs Field --
Rating 76
TS 50
Form 316
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 6f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
09-05-2026 Nottingham Good 6 1:15.11 75.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 54% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 40 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP15/8 OwnerMiddleham Park Racing Civ & B R Millman
Sire Cracksman Dam Whatitizz Damsire Cable Bay
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In touch with leaders - headway on outer over 2f out - ridden inside final furlong - led towards finish - kept on(op 7/4 tchd 11/4)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
09-05-2026 Nottingham 6 1.2 Run faded
15-04-2026 Beverley 1 0 Fast finish
05-04-2026 Bath 3 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
05-04-2026 | Bath
Rating 61 OR Unrated
15-04-2026 | Beverley
Rating 76 OR Unrated
09-05-2026 | Nottingham
Rating 65 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:15.11

Last 3 trip positions: 6

Approx winning time1m 27.31s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
09-05-2026 Nottingham | 6f | Good | Class 4 6 15/8 -- 65 41 1.2 1:15.11 GOLD - faster than par
15-04-2026 Beverley | 5f | Good To Soft | Class 5 1 15/8 -- 76 50 0 1:03.50 GOLD - faster than par
05-04-2026 Bath | 5f | Good | Class 4 3 12/1 -- 61 30 0.5 1:04.29 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Evidence developing

--.

Benchmark Fit score -4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 107 and winning TS par is around 89.1. Runner versus par: rating edge -19.0 | TS edge -39.1. Benchmark fit: -3.6.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sea Venture Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 30.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Time For The Moon Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 28.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sword Salute Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 23.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Aix La Chapelle Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 19.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Revels Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 17.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Aperoll Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 17.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Nola Soul Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Celtic Charioteer Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Pikachu Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 15.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Whispering Moon Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sydney Carton Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Romanza Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

On Just Terms Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

South Dakota Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

2:40 | Yarmouth

2:40 | Yarmouth | 5f

Class 4 | Good To Firm | QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap

Race Confidence 55 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR82.56 rated runners | Top OR 87: Rocking Ends
Winning Time Par1m 00.32s3 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 5.8) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; 1m6f - Stands' side; 1m2f - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-85
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos low
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Twilight Calls leads the contextual model at 39.4
  • Compressed top end: Havana Blast close enough to respect
  • Winning-time par: 1m 00.32s
Race shape Balanced context race No obvious tactical edge from race shape.
Leaders2
Prominent0
Midfield1
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Twilight CallsRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 80.5 1-6-8-5-6-12 9-8 5 OR 84 87 +3lb 13/8 +1.5 Quick return Down in trip Solid field 63% 61% 4/6 97 B Ceiling +3 PRICE DEPENDENT
Havana BlastRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 79.8 3-2-10-6-1-4 9-7 4 OR 83 90 +7lb 15/8 +0.5 Freshened up Down in trip Solid field 66% 69% 3/6 104 B Well in +13 PRICE DEPENDENT
Michaela's BoyRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 67.3 7-6-5-2-1-6 9-7 2 OR 83 71 -12lb 12/1 +0.5 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 61% 67% 5/6 87 B Ceiling +5 CAUTION PROFILE
Rocking EndsRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 61.5 4-6-4-14-7-9 9-11 6 OR 87 83 -4lb 13/2 +4.5 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 65% 66% 4/6 93 A Ceiling +4 PRICE DEPENDENT
Law Of AverageRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 53.0 1-1-9-7-9-6 9-6 1 OR 82 89 +7lb 11/4 -0.5 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 64% 72% 5/6 101 A+ Workable +7 CAUTION PROFILE
Cressida WildesRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 32.5 8-17-7-1-5-5 9-0 3 OR 76 44 -32lb 40/1 -6.5 Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 67% 66% 5/6 78 A Workable +9 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Twilight Calls

Twilight Calls profiles as a closer with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is B. Model alignment is 4/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Havana Blast

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Twilight Calls Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 80.5
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR87
Speed97
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+3lb near mark
FFR 87 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%faded late
97.3% 100% par
Best reasonRecent form and class support, but not a full-stake profile Main riskTop of the market is compressed
Model Score39.4raw
Agreement4/6
FFR87+3lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapNear ceiling+3lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +2.5
Variance Very steady 2.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7
Ceiling Below requirement -1.9 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Sandown Strong run 12-06-2026
6 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 27-03-2026
8 Meydan Run faded 06-03-2026
5 Meydan Competitive 20-02-2026
6 Meydan Run faded 06-02-2026
12 Meydan Competitive 02-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

12
12-06-2026 | Sandown Finished 1

Beat: Lipsink (IRE), Over Spiced (GB), Good Earth (IRE)

27-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Andesite (GB), Sergeant Wilko (IRE), Hockney (GB) | Badri (GB) won next/later, Hockney (GB) won next/later | Andesite (GB) placed next/later, Mister Bluebird (GB) placed next/later

06-03-2026 | Meydan Finished 8

Beat: Rappers Delight (GB), Jouncy (GB), Almutanabbi (USA) | Billy Webster (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 63% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 51%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 5 0W / 0P Peak rating 104
Good 9 1W / 1P Peak rating 116
Fast 8 0W / 0P Peak rating 110
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 79
Placement evidence 61% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 34%
Mark room 61%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (B)18 similar-trip runs recordedTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +3lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +3lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 84 | FFR 87 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +3
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Richard Spencer
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa
Age 8
Draw 5
OR 84
Avg OR 82.5
OR vs Field +1.5
Rating 79
TS 74
Form 65861
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 97.3% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile18
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
17-06-2025 Ascot Good To Firm 18 1:1.10 61.1
20-02-2026 Meydan (UAE) Good 5 0:57.58 57.6
12-06-2026 Sandown Good 1 1:3.89 63.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 72% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 6 days Quick return
Micro score +1.5 trainer RTF hot at 72%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; headgear declared: v; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/2J OwnerPhil Cunningham
Sire Twilight Son Dam Zawiyah Damsire Invincible Spirit
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Raced near side - midfield - switched left 2f out - headway from over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong - 4th of 8 in group(op 10/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
12-06-2026 Sandown 1 0 Neutral finish
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) 6 0.5 Neutral finish
06-03-2026 Meydan 8 0.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 5 runs with an official OR.
02-01-2026 | Meydan
Rating 64 OR 93
06-02-2026 | Meydan
Rating 79 OR 88
20-02-2026 | Meydan
Rating 78 OR 85
06-03-2026 | Meydan
Rating 71 OR 84
27-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 79 OR 82
12-06-2026 | Sandown
Rating -- OR 80
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip18 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:1.10 | 0:57.58 | 1:3.89

Last 3 trip positions: 18 | 5 | 1

Approx winning time1m 00.32s
Last win at trip-- | Sandown | 12-06-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -- | OR 80 | weight 9-9

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
12-06-2026 Sandown | 5f | Good | Class 4 1 5/2J 80 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 3 6 9/1 82 79 71 0.5 1:13.08 GREY - below benchmark
06-03-2026 Meydan | 6f | Good | -- 8 17/2 84 71 41 0.2 1:11.99 GREY - below benchmark
20-02-2026 Meydan | 5f | Good | -- 5 12/1 85 78 74 0.8 0:57.58 GOLD - faster than par
06-02-2026 Meydan | 6f | Good | -- 6 16/1 88 79 52 0.8 1:11.63 GREY - below benchmark
02-01-2026 Meydan | 6f | Good | -- 12 30/1 93 64 52 1 1:11.09 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Near ceiling

+3lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 88.7 and winning TS par is around 70.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -9.7 | TS edge +3.7. Benchmark fit: 0.3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Havana Blast Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 79.8
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR90
Speed104
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 90 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
104 Par 100
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score35.2raw
Agreement3/6
FFR90+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore104Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +2.8
Variance Very steady 3.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Par capable 5.8 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Kempton (AW) Run faded 20-05-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Troubled run 17-04-2026
10 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 27-03-2026
6 Kempton (AW) Finished well 07-09-2024
1 Chelmsford (AW) Finished well 31-08-2024
4 Sandown Competitive 31-07-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

16
20-05-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Irish Nectar (GB), Amazonian Dream (IRE), Hunky Dory (GB) | Charlie Mason (GB) won next/later | Hierarchy (IRE) placed next/later

17-04-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Alondra (GB), Ziggys Missile (IRE), Accrual (GB) | Accrual (GB) placed next/later, Alondra (GB) placed next/later

27-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 10

Beat: Blinky (IRE), Vingegaard (IRE) | Kinetic Force (GB) won next/later, Master Of My Fate (IRE) won next/later | Almarada Prince (IRE) placed next/later, Pixie Diva (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 50%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating73
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 74
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 73
All-weather 5 1W / 3P Peak rating 90
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 42%
Mark room 91%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (B)7 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +13lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +13lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 83 | FFR 90 | Best FFR 96 | FFR edge +13
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer James Fanshawe
Jockey Daniel Muscutt
Age 4
Draw 4
OR 83
Avg OR 82.5
OR vs Field +0.5
Rating 85
TS 69
Form 16/023
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile7
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
31-08-2024 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 1 0:58.65 58.6
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 10 1:0.30 60.3
17-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 2 1:0.73 60.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 52% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 29 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: ht; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearht | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2 OwnerJustwow
Sire Havana Grey Dam Bhangra Damsire Showcasing
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Took keen hold - towards rear - bit short of room over 2f out - headway over 1f out - went second inside final furlong - no match for winner(op 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
20-05-2026 Kempton (AW) 3 0.2 Fast finish
17-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 2 2.2 Fast finish
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) 10 0.5 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
31-07-2024 | Sandown
Rating 73 OR 77
31-08-2024 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 85 OR 76
07-09-2024 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 90 OR 84
27-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 79 OR 85
17-04-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 85 OR 82
20-05-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 87 OR 82
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip7 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 0:58.65 | 1:0.30 | 1:0.73

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 10 | 2

Approx winning time1m 00.32s
Last win at trip0:58.65 | Chelmsford (AW) | 31-08-2024

Last distance win context: vs par -1.67s | OR 76 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
20-05-2026 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 3 9/2 82 87 69 0.2 1:11.73 GREY - below benchmark
17-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 2 7/1 82 85 69 2.2 1:00.73 GREEN - within 1% of par
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 10 10/1 85 79 66 0.5 1:00.30 GOLD - faster than par
07-09-2024 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 1 6 22/1 84 90 74 0.3 1:12.63 GREY - below benchmark
31-08-2024 Chelmsford (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 5 1 5/2 76 85 66 0 0:58.65 GOLD - faster than par
31-07-2024 Sandown | 5f | Good To Firm | Class 4 4 8/1 77 73 66 0.3 1:0.24 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 88.7 and winning TS par is around 70.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -3.7 | TS edge -1.3. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Michaela's Boy Front-runner
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 67.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR71
Speed87
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-12lb below mark
FFR 71 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
87 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.1% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score37.7raw
Agreement5/6
FFR71-12lb vs OR
SpeedScore87Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapNear ceiling+5lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Regressing

confidence nudge +1.3
Variance Very steady 4.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.3
Ceiling Par capable 0 vs par
Curve Regressing Trend -2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 Yarmouth Run faded 13-05-2026
6 Nottingham Troubled run 26-04-2026
5 Chelmsford (AW) Run faded 21-02-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 31-01-2026
1 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 12-01-2026
6 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 15-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

13
13-05-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 7

Existent (GB) placed next/later

26-04-2026 | Nottingham Finished 6

Beat: Desert Cop (GB), Muker (IRE), Smart Vision (GB) | Desert Cop (GB) placed next/later, Nogo's Dream (GB) placed next/later

21-02-2026 | Chelmsford (AW) Finished 5

Beat: The Thames Boatman (GB), Mr Lightside (IRE), Accrual (GB) | Fidelius (GB) won next/later, Moulin Booj (IRE) won next/later | Accrual (GB) placed next/later, Albasheer (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 61% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 62%
Pace shape 55%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 64
Good 8 0W / 2P Peak rating 102
Fast 6 0W / 3P Peak rating 97
All-weather 15 3W / 7P Peak rating 96
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 71%
Mark room 67%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 34%
Proven trip profile (B)38 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +5lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +5lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 83 | FFR 71 | Best FFR 88 | FFR edge +5
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Robert Cowell
Jockey Marco Ghiani
Age 6
Draw 2
OR 83
Avg OR 82.5
OR vs Field +0.5
Rating 86
TS 81
Form -12567
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 15 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 105.1% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 21.89s recorded | FSP 105.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile38
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
21-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 5 0:59.12 59.1
26-04-2026 Nottingham Good 6 0:59.52 59.5
13-05-2026 Yarmouth Good To Soft 7 1:4.08 64.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 27% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 36 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 27%; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP12/1 OwnerS Geraghty
Sire Ribchester Dam Joyce Compton Damsire Tamayuz
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent - outpaced over 2f out - rallying when bit short of room over 1f out - kept on when in the clear inside final furlong(op 11/1 tchd 7/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
13-05-2026 Yarmouth 7 1.5 Run faded
26-04-2026 Nottingham 6 0.3 Neutral finish
21-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) 5 0.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
15-12-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 62 OR 83
12-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 89 OR 80
31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 92 OR 85
21-02-2026 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 85 OR 86
26-04-2026 | Nottingham
Rating 86 OR 86
13-05-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating 62 OR 85
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip38 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 0:59.12 | 0:59.52 | 1:4.08

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 6 | 7

Approx winning time1m 00.32s
Last win at trip0:58.04 | Lingfield (AW) | 12-01-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -2.28s | OR 80 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
13-05-2026 Yarmouth | 5f | Good To Soft | Class 3 7 12/1 85 62 43 1.5 1:03.95 GREY - below benchmark
26-04-2026 Nottingham | 5f | Good | Class 3 6 15/2 86 86 60 0.3 0:59.52 GOLD - faster than par
21-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 2 5 4/1 86 85 55 0.5 0:59.12 GOLD - faster than par
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 2 4/1 85 92 81 0.3 0:57.88 GOLD - faster than par
12-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 1 5/2J 80 89 65 0 0:58.04 GOLD - faster than par
15-12-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 6 4/1 83 62 36 4.8 1:01.01 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Near ceiling

+5lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 88.7 and winning TS par is around 70.3. Runner versus par: rating edge +3.3 | TS edge +10.7. Benchmark fit: 2.5.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Rocking Ends Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 61.5
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR83
Speed93
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-4lb below mark
FFR 83 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
93 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.1% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score31.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR83-4lb vs OR
SpeedScore93Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapNear ceiling+4lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.5
Variance Very steady 3.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3
Ceiling Below requirement -1.8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Yarmouth Finished well 13-05-2026
6 Bahrain Competitive 19-02-2026
4 Bahrain Competitive 16-01-2026
14 Bahrain Run faded 02-01-2026
7 Bahrain Run faded 19-12-2025
9 Southwell (AW) Competitive 21-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

23
13-05-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 4

Beat: Existent (GB), Twilight Fun (GB), Michaelas Boy (IRE) | Existent (GB) placed next/later

19-02-2026 | Bahrain Finished 6

Beat: Dubai Bling (IRE), Roman Dragon (GB), Dream Out Loud (IRE) | Dream Out Loud (IRE) won next/later, Dubai Bling (IRE) won next/later | Desert Cop (GB) placed next/later, Grand Grey (IRE) placed next/later

16-01-2026 | Bahrain Finished 4

Beat: Grand City Hall (IRE), Redemption Time (GB), Devaste (GB) | Chandigah (IRE) won next/later, Kendall Roy (GB) won next/later | Desert Cop (GB) placed next/later, Devaste (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 65% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 50%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating84
Best ground bandTesting
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 86
Good 7 1W / 2P Peak rating 95
Fast 13 4W / 7P Peak rating 98
All-weather 9 0W / 3P Peak rating 94
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 40%
Mark room 64%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 50%
Proven trip profile (A)25 similar-trip runs recordedTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +4lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +4lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 87 | FFR 83 | Best FFR 91 | FFR edge +4
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tom Clover
Jockey Jack Mitchell
Age 6
Draw 6
OR 87
Avg OR 82.5
OR vs Field +4.5
Rating 84
TS --
Form 7-0464
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 103.1% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile25
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-08-2025 Yarmouth Good To Firm 1 1:1.62 61.6
21-09-2025 Southwell (AW) Standard To Slow 9 0:58.32 58.3
13-05-2026 Yarmouth Good To Soft 4 1:3.08 63.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 42% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 36 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP8/1 OwnerColin Westley
Sire Havana Grey Dam Copper Penny Damsire Dansili
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

In rear on near side of group - headway over 1f out - kept on final 110yds

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
13-05-2026 Yarmouth 4 0.8 Fast finish
19-02-2026 Bahrain 6 0.1 Fast finish
16-01-2026 Bahrain 4 1 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 4 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
21-09-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 85 OR 93
19-12-2025 | Bahrain
Rating 87 OR Unrated
02-01-2026 | Bahrain
Rating 38 OR Unrated
16-01-2026 | Bahrain
Rating 84 OR 89
19-02-2026 | Bahrain
Rating 84 OR 89
13-05-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating 86 OR 89
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip25 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:1.62 | 0:58.32 | 1:3.08

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 9 | 4

Approx winning time1m 00.32s
Last win at trip1:1.62 | Yarmouth | 24-08-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +1.3s | OR 90 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
13-05-2026 Yarmouth | 5f | Good To Soft | Class 3 4 8/1 89 86 67 0.8 1:03.03 GREY - below benchmark
19-02-2026 Bahrain | 5f | Good To Firm | -- 6 -- 89 84 -- 0.1 0:59.39 GOLD - faster than par
16-01-2026 Bahrain | 5f | Good To Firm | Class 1 4 -- 89 84 -- 1 1:00.35 GREEN - within 1% of par
02-01-2026 Bahrain | 6f | Good | -- 14 -- -- 38 -- 1.2 1:13.77 GREY - below benchmark
19-12-2025 Bahrain | 5f | Good | -- 7 -- -- 87 -- 0.5 1:00.11 GOLD - faster than par
21-09-2025 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard To Slow | Class 2 9 28/1 93 85 68 1 0:58.32 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+4lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 88.7 and winning TS par is around 70.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -4.7. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Law Of Average Front-runner
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 53.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR89
Speed101
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 89 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.6% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score32.7raw
Agreement5/6
FFR89+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI A+HIGH
HandicapWorkable mark+7lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 6.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7
Ceiling Ceiling edge 7.7 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Hamilton Strong run 27-05-2026
1 Bath Strong run 29-04-2026
9 Southwell (AW) Run faded 18-12-2025
7 Kempton (AW) Run faded 29-10-2025
9 Leicester Run faded 07-10-2025
6 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 04-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

21
27-05-2026 | Hamilton Finished 1

Beat: Tiva (IRE), Binadham (IRE), Classy Al (GB) | Vingegaard (IRE) won next/later

29-04-2026 | Bath Finished 1

Beat: Binadham (IRE), Cayman Tai (IRE), Some Nightmare (IRE) | Cayman Tai (IRE) won next/later | Binadham (IRE) placed next/later, Connies Rose (GB) placed next/later

18-12-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 9

Glory Fighter (GB) won next/later, Popular Dream (GB) won next/later | Bang On The Bell (GB) placed next/later, Fiorella Princess (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 96%
Class 44%
Pace shape 55%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 5 0W / 0P Peak rating 81
Good 3 1W / 1P Peak rating 79
Fast 6 4W / 4P Peak rating 95
All-weather 8 1W / 1P Peak rating 82
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 43%
Mark room 73%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A+)18 similar-trip runs recordedTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +7lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +7lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 82 | FFR 89 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +7
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Chelsea Banham
Jockey Joey Haynes
Age 5
Draw 1
OR 82
Avg OR 82.5
OR vs Field -0.5
Rating No rating yet
TS 58
Form 979-11
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 100.6% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 22.55s recorded | FSP 100.6%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile18
DEIA+
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
18-12-2025 Southwell (AW) Standard 9 1:0.47 60.5
29-04-2026 Bath Firm 1 0:59.57 59.6
27-05-2026 Hamilton Good To Firm 1 0:57.91 57.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF -- Trainer recent-form data unavailable
Freshness 22 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP15/8F OwnerA140 Self Storage Club
Sire Pearl Secret Dam High Class Girl Damsire Royal Applause
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Made all - ridden final furlong - always doing enough (trainer's rep said - regarding the apparent improvement in form - gelding had benefitted from freshening up after a break; gelding was routine tested)(op 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
27-05-2026 Hamilton 1 0 Fast finish
29-04-2026 Bath 1 0 Neutral finish
18-12-2025 Southwell (AW) 9 0.3 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 4 runs with an official OR.
04-09-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 82 OR 84
07-10-2025 | Leicester
Rating 56 OR 81
29-10-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 61 OR 77
18-12-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 48 OR 74
29-04-2026 | Bath
Rating -- OR 72
27-05-2026 | Hamilton
Rating -- OR 76
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip18 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:0.47 | 0:59.57 | 0:57.91

Last 3 trip positions: 9 | 1 | 1

Approx winning time1m 00.32s
Last win at trip0:57.91 | Hamilton | 27-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -2.41s | OR 76 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
27-05-2026 Hamilton | 5f | Good To Firm | Class 4 1 15/8F 76 -- 57 0 0:57.91 GOLD - faster than par
29-04-2026 Bath | 5f | Firm | Class 5 1 7/2 72 -- 58 0 0:59.57 GOLD - faster than par
18-12-2025 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 5 9 11/2 74 48 35 0.3 1:00.15 GOLD - faster than par
29-10-2025 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 7 40/1 77 61 19 1 1:14.11 GREY - below benchmark
07-10-2025 Leicester | 5f | Good To Soft | Class 4 9 28/1 81 56 30 0.8 1:0.98 AMBER - competitive
04-09-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 3 6 12/1 84 82 74 0.5 0:57.58 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+7lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 88.7 and winning TS par is around 70.3. Runner versus par: TS edge -12.3. Benchmark fit: -1.1.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Cressida Wildes Closer
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 32.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR44
Speed78
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-32lb below mark
FFR 44 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
78 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.9% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score26.2raw
Agreement5/6
FFR44-32lb vs OR
SpeedScore78Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWorkable mark+9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small caution nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Regressing

confidence nudge -0.5
Variance Reliable 8.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.1
Ceiling Par capable 2.8 vs par
Curve Regressing Trend -2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Windsor Steady run 01-06-2026
17 Ascot Run faded 09-05-2026
7 Chelmsford (AW) Below best 26-02-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 16-02-2026
5 Wolverhampton (AW) Competitive 13-02-2026
5 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 15-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

6
26-02-2026 | Chelmsford (AW) Finished 7

Arklow Lad (IRE) won next/later, Mumayaz (IRE) won next/later | Fiorella Princess (IRE) placed next/later, Thecoffeepoddotco (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 67% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 44%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Has experience, but limited strong evidence
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating12
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Has experience, but limited strong evidence Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 83
Good 8 1W / 4P Peak rating 84
Fast 7 0W / 3P Peak rating 84
All-weather 11 2W / 4P Peak rating 84
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 34%
Mark room 79%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A)15 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +9lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +9lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 76 | FFR 44 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +9
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Phil McEntee
Jockey Connor Planas
Age 4
Draw 3
OR 76
Avg OR 82.5
OR vs Field -6.5
Rating 47
TS 41
Form -51708
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 14 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.9% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 23.38s recorded | FSP 100.9%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile15
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
16-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 1 1:1.73 61.7
26-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 7 1:0.51 60.5
01-06-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 8 1:0.47 60.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 22% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 17 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 22%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: v; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP40/1 OwnerG4 Contracts
Sire Showcasing Dam Dancing Warrior Damsire War Command
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

In rear throughout(op 16/1 tchd 18/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 9.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
01-06-2026 Windsor 8 14 Neutral finish
09-05-2026 Ascot 17 10 Run faded
26-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) 7 4.8 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 5 runs with an official OR.
15-12-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 74 OR 78
13-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 73 OR 76
16-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 84 OR 76
26-02-2026 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 47 OR 80
09-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 12 OR 79
01-06-2026 | Windsor
Rating -- OR 78
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip15 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:1.73 | 1:0.51 | 1:0.47

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 7 | 8

Approx winning time1m 00.32s
Last win at trip1:01.73 | Wolverhampton (AW) | 16-02-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.41s | OR 76 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
01-06-2026 Windsor | 5f | Good To Firm | Class 4 8 40/1 78 -- -- 14 -- GREY - no timing read
09-05-2026 Ascot | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 4 17 66/1 79 12 7 10 1:16.23 GREY - below benchmark
26-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 5 7 14/1 80 47 35 4.8 1:00.51 GREEN - within 1% of par
16-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 1 9/1 76 84 41 0 1:01.73 AMBER - competitive
13-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 5 15/2 76 73 38 0.8 1:01.68 AMBER - competitive
15-12-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 5 40/1 78 74 48 0.8 1:00.22 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 88.7 and winning TS par is around 70.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -4.7 | TS edge -29.3. Benchmark fit: -1.1.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
2:50 | Ripon

2:50 | Ripon | 10f

Class 5 | Good | Grantley Hall Handicap

Race Confidence 69 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR70.97 rated runners | Top OR 75: Qitaal
Winning Time Par2m 04.09s17 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3)Stalls Straight - Stands' side; Round - Inside; 1m4f - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-75
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos low
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Qitaal leads the contextual model at 46.4
  • Clearer top profile: +7.8 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 04.09s
Race shape Balanced context race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 2 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders2
Prominent0
Midfield1
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
QitaalRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 82.0 5-2-4-7-4-7 10-2 1 OR 75 76 +1lb 5/1 +4.1 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 64% 72% 5/6 106 D Well in +15 PRICE DEPENDENT
SaxophonistRun style: CloserFinish: Limited sectional edge 68.3 3-3-3-8-3 9-1 2 OR 72 78 +6lb 11/2 +1.1 Standard rest Big step up Solid field 58% 59% 3/6 98 E Workable +11 PRICE DEPENDENT
What's The PlanRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 62.8 3-4-4-20-1-3 9-4 6 OR 75 82 +7lb 10/3 +4.1 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 60% 59% 4/6 98 D Workable +10 CAUTION PROFILE
King Of FuryRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 52.4 4-5-6-7-6-2 9-13 4 OR 72 67 -5lb 6/1 +1.1 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 58% 58% 4/6 95 E Workable +10 CAUTION PROFILE
Poet's DawnRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 44.5 6-1-4-1-9-4 9-9 5 OR 68 67 -1lb 9/1 -2.9 Quick return Big step up Solid field 66% 73% 3/6 97 A Well in +16 CAUTION PROFILE
Roc De FerRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 10.0 4-4-12 8-12 7 OR 69 69 +0lb 7/4 -1.9 Long absence Big step up Solid field 51% 54% 0/6 78 E Workable +8 CAUTION PROFILE
YermanthereRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 8.0 5-10-7-5-5-4 9-6 3 OR 65 62 -3lb 8/1 -5.9 Standard rest Trip move developing Solid field 62% 62% 1/6 102 D Well in +33 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Qitaal

Qitaal profiles as a front-runner with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 5/6. Draw data is a slight caution. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Saxophonist

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Qitaal Front-runner
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 82.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR76
Speed106
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+1lb near mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
106 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
107.8% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score46.4raw
Agreement5/6
FFR76+1lb vs OR
SpeedScore106Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+15lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.9
Ceiling Par capable 5.8 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Hamilton Competitive 04-06-2026
2 Leicester Troubled run 25-05-2026
4 Hamilton Run faded 15-05-2026
7 Nottingham Run faded 08-04-2026
4 Chelmsford (AW) Run faded 12-03-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 27-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

8
04-06-2026 | Hamilton Finished 5

Beat: Mr Lincoln (GB), Tee Aitch Aye (IRE), Penelope's Sister (IRE) | Pearl Eye (GB) placed next/later

25-05-2026 | Leicester Finished 2

Beat: Mythical Bird (IRE), Alta Rica (GB), Hamadhan (IRE) | Hamadhan (IRE) placed next/later

15-05-2026 | Hamilton Finished 4

Beat: Draupnir (GB), Naturalia (GB), Flying Fletcher (GB) | Sanafi Zabeel (FR) won next/later | Draupnir (GB) placed next/later, Flying Fletcher (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 88%
Pace shape 55%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating81
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 12 1W / 4P Peak rating 93
Good 10 0W / 1P Peak rating 95
Fast 5 0W / 1P Peak rating 87
All-weather 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 100%
Mark room 97%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 58%
Class benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +15lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +15lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +15lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 75 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +15
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Charlie Johnston
Jockey Connor Beasley
Age 7
Draw 1
OR 75
Avg OR 70.9
OR vs Field +4.1
Rating 74
TS 68
Form 747425
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 107.8% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 23.37s recorded | FSP 107.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile2
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-05-2026 Hamilton Good 4 1:55.81 115.8
04-06-2026 Hamilton Good 5 1:58.75 118.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 42% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 14 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/2 OwnerKingsley Park 47 - Ready To Run
Sire Iffraaj Dam Qaafeya Damsire New Approach
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Led early - headed and pressed leader after 1f - disputed lead over 4f out - headed over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 11/2 and tchd 13/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
04-06-2026 Hamilton 5 0.8 Neutral finish
25-05-2026 Leicester 2 2 Fast finish
15-05-2026 Hamilton 4 0.1 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
27-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 82 OR 81
12-03-2026 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 80 OR 80
08-04-2026 | Nottingham
Rating 74 OR 79
15-05-2026 | Hamilton
Rating 81 OR 77
25-05-2026 | Leicester
Rating 80 OR 76
04-06-2026 | Hamilton
Rating -- OR 76
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:55.81 | 1:58.75

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 5

Approx winning time2m 04.09s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
04-06-2026 Hamilton | 9f | Good | Class 4 5 7/2 76 -- -- 0.8 -- GREY - no timing read
25-05-2026 Leicester | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 4 2 9/4F 76 80 48 2 2:06.10 AMBER - competitive
15-05-2026 Hamilton | 1m1f | Good | Class 4 4 4/1 77 81 69 0.1 1:55.81 GOLD - faster than par
08-04-2026 Nottingham | 1m2f | Good | Class 4 7 9/2 79 74 58 0.1 2:11.92 GREY - below benchmark
12-03-2026 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 3 4 12/1 80 80 68 2.2 2:04.37 GREEN - within 1% of par
27-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 2 7 20/1 81 82 61 0.8 2:04.08 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+15lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 8

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 76 and winning TS par is around 53.6. Runner versus par: rating edge +9.9 | TS edge +14.3. Benchmark fit: 7.7.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Saxophonist Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 68.3
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR78
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+6lb ahead of mark
FFR 78 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.3% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score38.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR78+6lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapWorkable mark+11lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.3
Variance Very steady 3.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.2
Ceiling Par capable 1.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Hamilton Run faded 27-05-2026
3 Doncaster Finished well 24-04-2026
3 Newcastle (AW) Troubled run 21-10-2025
8 Thirsk Run faded 29-08-2025
3 Newcastle (AW) Troubled run 26-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

8
27-05-2026 | Hamilton Finished 3

Porth Eilian (GB) placed next/later

24-04-2026 | Doncaster Finished 3

Beat: Booziebrunch (IRE), Toastmaster (IRE), Tarmonbarry Kid (IRE) | Tarmonbarry Kid (IRE) won next/later | Booziebrunch (IRE) placed next/later, Silver State (IRE) placed next/later

21-10-2025 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Beny Nahar (GB) | Loma Express (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 67%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/5
Best similar rating46
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 46
Fast 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 75
All-weather 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 68%
Mark room 85%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 34%
Class benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +11lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedTrip evidence still asks questionsRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +11lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +11lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 78 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge +11
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer David O'Meara
Jockey Mark Winn
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 72
Avg OR 70.9
OR vs Field +1.1
Rating 75
TS 64
Form 383-33
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Limited sectional edge
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLimited sectional edge
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Limited sectional edge Limited
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 26.35s recorded | FSP 103.3%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m½f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m½f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
27-05-2026 Hamilton Good To Firm 3 1:45.81 105.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 36% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 22 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/8F OwnerHambleton Racing Liv & Partner
Sire Saxon Warrior Dam Macheera Damsire Machiavellian
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Towards rear - some headway over 1f out - kept on and went third final strides(op 16/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
27-05-2026 Hamilton 3 0.5 Run faded
24-04-2026 Doncaster 3 1.2 Fast finish
21-10-2025 Newcastle (AW) 3 1.8 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
26-07-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 69 OR Unrated
29-08-2025 | Thirsk
Rating 46 OR Unrated
21-10-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 67 OR Unrated
24-04-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 75 OR 74
27-05-2026 | Hamilton
Rating 71 OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:45.81

Last 3 trip positions: 3

Approx winning time2m 04.09s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
27-05-2026 Hamilton | 1m½f | Good To Firm | Class 5 3 11/8F 73 71 52 0.5 1:45.81 GOLD - faster than par
24-04-2026 Doncaster | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 5 3 11/1 74 75 64 1.2 1:39.18 GOLD - faster than par
21-10-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 3 7/2 -- 67 40 1.8 1:29.66 GOLD - faster than par
29-08-2025 Thirsk | 1m | Good | Class 5 8 5/1 -- 46 24 2.5 1:42.23 GOLD - faster than par
26-07-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 3 11/1 -- 69 48 2.8 1:30.19 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+11lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 76 and winning TS par is around 53.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -1.1 | TS edge +10.3. Benchmark fit: 3.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
What's The Plan Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 62.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR82
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 82 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.3% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score35.1raw
Agreement4/6
FFR82+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+10lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Very steady 2.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.9
Ceiling Par capable 1.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Salisbury Solid effort 23-05-2026
4 Southwell (AW) Finished well 02-04-2026
4 Kempton (AW) Run faded 22-10-2025
20 Newmarket Competitive 04-10-2025
1 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 03-09-2025
3 Haydock Run faded 08-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

11
23-05-2026 | Salisbury Finished 3

Beat: Raspoutine (GB), Tabasko (GB), Too Hot To Tango (GB) | Too Hot To Tango (GB) won next/later | Melody De Vega (IRE) placed next/later, Raspoutine (GB) placed next/later

02-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Boy Named Sioux (IRE), Haddiah (GB), Ebn Sabt (GB) | Folk Pageant (GB) won next/later, On The Inlet (IRE) won next/later | Booziebrunch (IRE) placed next/later

22-10-2025 | Kempton (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Champion Island (IRE) | Dryburgh (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 60% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 54%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 78
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 70
All-weather 3 1W / 1P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 44%
Mark room 82%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 50%
FFR vs OR gives +10lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +10lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +10lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 75 | FFR 82 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +10
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer James Fanshawe
Jockey Arron D'Arcy(7)
Age 3
Draw 6
OR 75
Avg OR 70.9
OR vs Field +4.1
Rating 71
TS 60
Form 104-43
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 22.06s recorded | FSP 103.3%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile2
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
22-10-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 4 1:40.62 100.6
02-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 4 1:41.36 101.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 52% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: h
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearh | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP10/1 OwnerMrs Mary Slack
Sire Time Test Dam Moonlight Sonata Damsire Galileo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Towards rear - ridden and kept on inside final furlong - never near to challenge(tchd 3/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 Salisbury 3 0.1 Fast finish
02-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 4 0.5 Fast finish
22-10-2025 Kempton (AW) 4 0.3 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 4 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
08-08-2025 | Haydock
Rating 68 OR Unrated
03-09-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 78 OR Unrated
04-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 43 OR 79
22-10-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 71 OR 78
02-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 71 OR 75
23-05-2026 | Salisbury
Rating 78 OR 74
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:40.62 | 1:41.36

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 4

Approx winning time2m 04.09s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 Salisbury | 1m2f | Good | Class 5 3 10/1 74 78 65 0.1 2:11.14 GREY - below benchmark
02-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 4 7/2F 75 71 60 0.5 1:41.14 GOLD - faster than par
22-10-2025 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 4 9/4J 78 71 55 0.3 1:40.45 GOLD - faster than par
04-10-2025 Newmarket | 7f | Good | Class 2 20 40/1 79 43 37 0.5 1:26.81 GOLD - faster than par
03-09-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 7/4 -- 78 36 0 1:25.03 GOLD - faster than par
08-08-2025 Haydock | 7f | Good | Class 3 3 6/4 -- 68 46 5 1:29.68 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+10lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 76 and winning TS par is around 53.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.0 | TS edge +6.3. Benchmark fit: 0.8.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
King Of Fury Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 52.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR67
Speed95
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-5lb below mark
FFR 67 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
95 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.6% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score24.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR67-5lb vs OR
SpeedScore95Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapWorkable mark+10lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Ceiling edge; Cooling

confidence nudge +1.4
Variance Reliable 5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.7
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.8 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Carlisle Competitive 08-06-2026
5 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 01-05-2026
6 Kempton (AW) Run faded 18-02-2026
7 Kempton (AW) Run faded 21-01-2026
6 Kempton (AW) Run faded 03-12-2025
2 Leicester Strong run 28-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

18
08-06-2026 | Carlisle Finished 4

Beat: Yermanthere (IRE), Redarna (GB), Cosmos Raj (GB) | Star Cast (GB) won next/later

01-05-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Free Speech (IRE), Sea The Light (IRE), Mao Shang Wong (IRE) | Jack Sparowe (IRE) won next/later, Mao Shang Wong (IRE) won next/later | Free Speech (IRE) placed next/later, Sure And Stedfast (IRE) placed next/later

18-02-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Emery Down (GB), Lady Justice (GB), Midnights Dream (IRE) | Tadreeb (IRE) won next/later | Atmosphere (GB) placed next/later, Beauty Generation (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 54%
Pace shape 55%
Track / draw 66%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 9 0W / 5P Peak rating 84
Good 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 77
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 12 3W / 5P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 58% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 35%
Class fit 44%
Mark room 82%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 50%
FFR vs OR gives +10lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedTrip evidence still asks questionsRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +10lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +10lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 67 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +10
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Michael Dods
Jockey Jason Hart
Age 6
Draw 4
OR 72
Avg OR 70.9
OR vs Field +1.1
Rating 71
TS 58
Form 6-7654
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 102.6% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
08-06-2026 Carlisle Soft 4 1:59.71 119.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 39% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 10 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/1 OwnerMrs K S Pratt & M Dods
Sire Starspangledbanner Dam Bequia Damsire Helmet
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Taken down early - took keen hold - prominent on outer - led after 2f - clear after 4f - much reduced lead over 2f out - headed over 1f out - soon lost second - weakened inside final furlong (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 11/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
08-06-2026 Carlisle 4 0.3 Neutral finish
01-05-2026 Newcastle (AW) 5 1.2 Run faded
18-02-2026 Kempton (AW) 6 1.5 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 5 runs with an official OR.
28-10-2025 | Leicester
Rating 84 OR 78
03-12-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 78 OR 78
21-01-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 68 OR 77
18-02-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 59 OR 75
01-05-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 71 OR 73
08-06-2026 | Carlisle
Rating -- OR 72
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:59.71

Last 3 trip positions: 4

Approx winning time2m 04.09s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
08-06-2026 Carlisle | 9f | Soft | Class 5 4 5/1 72 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
01-05-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 5 5 14/1 73 71 41 1.2 2:14.93 GREY - below benchmark
18-02-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 5 6 11/2 75 59 48 1.5 1:38.78 GOLD - faster than par
21-01-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 7 9/2 77 68 58 3.8 1:39.75 GOLD - faster than par
03-12-2025 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 6 17/2 78 78 65 0.5 1:38.94 GOLD - faster than par
28-10-2025 Leicester | 1m | Soft | Class 4 2 11/1 78 84 37 1.2 1:49.32 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+10lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 76 and winning TS par is around 53.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.0 | TS edge +4.3. Benchmark fit: 0.8.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Poet's Dawn Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 44.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR67
Speed97
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-1lb near mark
FFR 67 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%even finish
101.5% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score23.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR67-1lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+16lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.5
Variance Very steady 2.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3
Ceiling Below requirement -1.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 York Competitive 12-06-2026
1 Musselburgh Strong run 05-06-2026
4 Beverley Troubled run 27-05-2026
1 Ripon Strong run 17-05-2026
9 Ripon Competitive 08-05-2026
4 Ripon Run faded 25-04-2026
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 0 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

3
12-06-2026 | York Finished 6

Beat: Glistening Nights (FR), Beach Point (IRE), Jez Bomb (GB)

05-06-2026 | Musselburgh Finished 1

Beat: Amidst The Chaos (IRE), Mayor Of Maghera (GB), Union Island (IRE) | Union Island (IRE) placed next/later

27-05-2026 | Beverley Finished 4

Beat: Hostelry (GB), Berning Hot (IRE), Ring Of Gold (GB) | Onemorenomore (GB) placed next/later, Penny Ghent (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 45%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs5/6
Best similar rating71
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 28 2W / 9P Peak rating 78
Good 18 3W / 8P Peak rating 77
Fast 9 1W / 4P Peak rating 77
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 26%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)12 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +16lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +16lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +16lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 68 | FFR 67 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge +16
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tim Easterby
Jockey Sean Kirrane
Age 11
Draw 5
OR 68
Avg OR 70.9
OR vs Field -2.9
Rating 65
TS 59
Form 491416
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Limited sectional edge
Evidence 15 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLimited sectional edge
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Limited sectional edge Limited
FSP% last 3 101.5% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 30.05s recorded | FSP 101.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile12
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
16-06-2025 Carlisle Soft 6 1:58.48 118.5
05-07-2025 Carlisle Soft 6 2:9.60 129.6
05-06-2026 Musselburgh Good 1 1:52.19 112.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 43% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 6 days Quick return
Micro score +0.0 headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP28/1 OwnerTimothy O'Gram & Partner
Sire Poet's Voice Dam Dudley Queen Damsire Excellent Art
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Prominent - no extra inside final furlong(op 8/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
12-06-2026 York 6 0.8 Neutral finish
05-06-2026 Musselburgh 1 0 Neutral finish
27-05-2026 Beverley 4 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 4 runs with an official OR.
25-04-2026 | Ripon
Rating 65 OR 64
08-05-2026 | Ripon
Rating 53 OR 63
17-05-2026 | Ripon
Rating 71 OR 60
27-05-2026 | Beverley
Rating 65 OR 64
05-06-2026 | Musselburgh
Rating -- OR 65
12-06-2026 | York
Rating -- OR 69
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip12 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:58.48 | 2:9.60 | 1:52.19

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 6 | 1

Approx winning time2m 04.09s
Last win at trip2:04.50 | Ripon | 17-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +0.41s | OR 60 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
12-06-2026 York | 10.5f | Good | Class 4 6 28/1 69 -- -- 0.8 -- GREY - no timing read
05-06-2026 Musselburgh | 9f | Good | Class 5 1 5/1 65 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
27-05-2026 Beverley | 1m½f | Good To Firm | Class 6 4 7/2 64 65 33 0.5 1:46.82 GOLD - faster than par
17-05-2026 Ripon | 1m2f | Good | Class 5 1 15/2 60 71 37 0 2:04.50 GREEN - within 1% of par
08-05-2026 Ripon | 1m2f | Good | Class 5 9 18/1 63 53 19 1 2:07.31 GREY - below benchmark
25-04-2026 Ripon | 1m | Good | Class 5 4 9/1 64 65 59 0.8 1:41.66 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+16lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 76 and winning TS par is around 53.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -11.1 | TS edge +5.3. Benchmark fit: -0.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Roc De Fer Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Yermanthere Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

3:05 | Ascot

3:05 | Ascot | 12f

Class 2 | Good To Firm | King George V Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)

Race Confidence 41 WATCH ONLY
Race DNAHigh-variance betting race
Chaos IndexHigh
Average OR89.519 rated runners | Top OR 100: Guildmaster
Winning Time Par2m 30.94s8 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.9, Centre 8.7, Far side 8.5, Round 7.6) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; Round - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-105
Primary ActionWATCH ONLY
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • High-variance betting race | chaos high
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Al Azd leads the contextual model at 57.8
  • Compressed top end: Joulany close enough to respect
  • Winning-time par: 2m 30.94s
Race shape High-variance betting race Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 2 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders10
Prominent2
Midfield3
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Al AzdRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 55.0 6-1-1-2-2-2 9-1 14 OR 92 91 -1lb 17/2 +2.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 53% 69% 4/6 101 D Ceiling +1 PRICE DEPENDENT
JoulanyRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 46.5 2-3-4-2 9-0 2 OR 91 95 +4lb 9/1 +1.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 51% 64% 4/6 105 E Ceiling +5 PRICE DEPENDENT
Waterford CastleRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 46.0 2-2-2-2-6-7 8-9 12 OR 86 91 +5lb 20/1 -3.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 53% 68% 4/6 99 D Workable +8 WATCH ONLY
GuildmasterRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 45.8 7-3-1 9-9 15 OR 100 87 -13lb 25/1 +10.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 50% 48% 3/6 94 E Stiff -9 CAUTION PROFILE
HeyzoomRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 44.0 1-2-3 8-8 7 OR 85 96 +11lb 13/2 -4.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 51% 59% 3/6 105 C Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
CannesRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 43.0 1-2-2 9-4 21 OR 95 86 -9lb 7/1 +5.5 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 51% 52% 3/6 100 D Stiff -8 CAUTION PROFILE
Arc Ole OleRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 42.5 1-1-1-5 8-8 20 OR 85 89 +4lb 12/1 -4.5 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 51% 58% 3/6 99 D Ceiling +4 CAUTION PROFILE
Birgham DubRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 39.0 5-1-1 9-2 5 OR 93 85 -8lb 40/1 +3.5 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 51% 47% 3/6 84 C Ceiling +1 CAUTION PROFILE
Galilean QualityRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 37.0 1-3-1-1-4-6 8-8 16 OR 85 98 +13lb 28/1 -4.5 Standard rest Big step up Strong field 60% 64% 2/6 99 C Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
GenchevRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 31.0 1-2-4-5-3 8-9 1 OR 86 85 -1lb 33/1 -3.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 42% 51% 2/6 98 C Stiff -1 CAUTION PROFILE
Into The LightRun style: Front-runnerFinish: No clear style 27.8 2-2-1 8-11 11 OR 88 86 -2lb 4/1 -1.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 45% 50% 1/6 97 C Ceiling +2 CAUTION PROFILE
Atomic CityRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 25.0 1-3-3-5-3 8-12 6 OR 89 87 -2lb 18/1 -0.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 52% 52% 3/6 102 D Stiff -2 CAUTION PROFILE
Tierra Del ToroRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 24.0 3-2-1-2 9-6 10 OR 97 94 -3lb 6/1 +7.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 42% 52% 2/6 102 E Stiff -2 PRICE DEPENDENT
Dial Me InRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 23.8 2-4-4-1 8-12 8 OR 89 85 -4lb 22/1 -0.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 52% 51% 2/6 101 D Stiff -3 CAUTION PROFILE
EnceladusRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 22.0 1-3-3 8-12 13 OR 89 86 -3lb 9/1 -0.5 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 45% 51% 2/6 100 D Stiff -3 CAUTION PROFILE
Golden KnightRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 16.9 6-10-1-4 8-10 22 OR 87 83 -4lb 18/1 -2.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Strong field 57% 59% 1/6 90 C Ceiling +0 CAUTION PROFILE
BelievedRun style: Front-runnerFinish: No clear style 16.6 1-2-4 8-11 4 OR 88 86 -2lb 17/2 -1.5 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 36% 46% 0/6 102 E Stiff -2 CAUTION PROFILE
Blue HerculesRun style: Front-runnerFinish: No clear style 15.6 2-4-8 8-8 3 OR 85 90 +5lb 33/1 -4.5 Standard rest Big step up Strong field 43% 57% 1/6 94 E Ceiling +5 CAUTION PROFILE
Amora QueenRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 4.5 9-5-2-10-1-1 8-13 9 OR 90 71 -19lb 50/1 +0.5 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 40% 42% 1/6 92 E Stiff -1 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Al Azd

Al Azd profiles as a front-runner with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 4/6. Draw data adds a small confidence boost. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Joulany

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Al Azd Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 55.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR91
Speed101
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-1lb near mark
FFR 91 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
109.5% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score57.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR91-1lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 5.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.4
Ceiling Par capable 4 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Newbury Competitive 16-05-2026
1 Doncaster Strong run 25-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 11-04-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 20-03-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Solid effort 14-02-2026
2 Kempton (AW) Run faded 28-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

6
16-05-2026 | Newbury Finished 6

Beat: Sintra (GB), Pearl River (GB), Capall Rasa (IRE) | Pearl River (GB) won next/later

25-04-2026 | Doncaster Finished 1

Beat: Lopeo (IRE), Stoneacre Donny (GB), Shushi (GB) | Lopeo (IRE) placed next/later, Stoneacre Donny (GB) placed next/later

11-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Sailor Song (GB), King Of Thebes (GB), Stepanov (IRE) | King Of Thebes (GB) placed next/later, Stepanov (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 53% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 65%
Pace shape 25%
Track / draw 66%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Track / draw Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating99
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 57
Good 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 93
Fast 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 99
All-weather 4 1W / 4P Peak rating 93
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 57%
Class fit 86%
Mark room 55%
Stable setup 70%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +1lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 92 | FFR 91 | Best FFR 93 | FFR edge +1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Roger Varian
Jockey Cieren Fallon
Age 3
Draw 14
OR 92
Avg OR 89.5
OR vs Field +2.5
Rating 99
TS 84
Form 222116
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 109.5% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m3f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 2:21.66 141.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 72% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 33 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +1.2 trainer RTF hot at 72%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: b; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearb | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP18/5 OwnerShadwell Estate Company Ltd
Sire Dubawi Dam Zeyaadah Damsire Tamayuz
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Bumped soon after start - took keen hold - in rear - switched right and headway over 2f out - pushed along to lead over 1f out - went further clear inside final furlong - easily(op 6/5)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
16-05-2026 Newbury 6 0.2 Fast finish
25-04-2026 Doncaster 1 0 Fast finish
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 5 runs with an official OR. 1 earlier run was unrated.
28-01-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 78 OR Unrated
14-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 76 OR 80
20-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 88 OR 80
11-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 93 OR 83
25-04-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 99 OR 85
16-05-2026 | Newbury
Rating 93 OR 92
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:21.66

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time2m 30.94s
Last win at trip2:31.51 | Doncaster | 25-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +0.57s | OR 85 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
16-05-2026 Newbury | 1m2f | Good | Class 2 6 18/5 92 93 73 0.2 2:06.35 GOLD - faster than par
25-04-2026 Doncaster | 1m4f | Good To Firm | Class 4 1 5/4F 85 99 84 0 2:31.51 GREEN - within 1% of par
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m3f | Standard | Class 3 1 6/4F 83 93 75 0 2:21.66 GOLD - faster than par
20-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 4 2 11/4 80 88 74 0.3 2:04.71 GOLD - faster than par
14-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 3 2 30/100F 80 76 42 1 2:07.24 GOLD - faster than par
28-01-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 2 5/2 -- 78 19 2.8 1:43.09 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.8 and winning TS par is around 88.9. Runner versus par: rating edge +11.2 | TS edge -4.9. Benchmark fit: 3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Joulany Prominent
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 46.5
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR95
Speed105
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+4lb near mark
FFR 95 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
105 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
108.7% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score44.2raw
Agreement4/6
FFR95+4lb vs OR
SpeedScore105Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+5lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Variable; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +3.5
Variance Variable 9.3% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.7
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 3
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Chester Run faded 08-05-2026
3 Newbury Solid effort 17-04-2026
4 York Finished well 11-10-2025
2 Kempton (AW) Solid effort 05-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

14
08-05-2026 | Chester Finished 2

Beat: Glory Of The Seas (GB), Eben Al Khawaneej (IRE), Take A Chill Pill (GB) | Glory Of The Seas (GB) won next/later

17-04-2026 | Newbury Finished 3

Beat: Shabab Al Ahli (GB), Sahara King (GB), Alfaraz (GB) | Maltese Cross (FR) won next/later | Barrister (GB) placed next/later, Easwrith Destiny (GB) placed next/later

11-10-2025 | York Finished 4

Beat: Emtinan (IRE), Howsham (GB), King Of Berkshire (IRE) | King Of Berkshire (IRE) won next/later, Morshdi (GB) won next/later | Arabian Desert (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 51% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 77%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Class Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 97
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 64% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 100%
Mark room 67%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 58%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +5lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +5lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 91 | FFR 95 | Best FFR 96 | FFR edge +5
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ralph Beckett
Jockey Hector Crouch
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 91
Avg OR 89.5
OR vs Field +1.5
Rating 93
TS 99
Form 24-32
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
17-04-2026 Newbury Good 3 2:6.13 126.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 57% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 41 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: t; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeart | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP10/11F OwnerAl Shaqab Racing, Amo Racing & Valmont
Sire Sea The Stars Dam Kitcara Damsire Shamardal
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last timeHC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Soon raced in second - chased clear leader after 3f - headway 3f out - pressed leaders from under 2f out - kept on(op 13/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
08-05-2026 Chester 2 2.2 Neutral finish
17-04-2026 Newbury 3 0.2 Fast finish
11-10-2025 York 4 2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
05-09-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 86 OR Unrated
11-10-2025 | York
Rating 77 OR Unrated
17-04-2026 | Newbury
Rating 93 OR Unrated
08-05-2026 | Chester
Rating 97 OR 91
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:6.13

Last 3 trip positions: 3

Approx winning time2m 30.94s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
08-05-2026 Chester | 1m4½f | Good | Class 2 2 10/11F 91 97 92 2.2 2:35.25 GREY - below benchmark
17-04-2026 Newbury | 1m2f | Good | Class 2 3 6/1 -- 93 99 0.2 2:06.13 GOLD - faster than par
11-10-2025 York | 1m | Good | Class 2 4 4/6F -- 77 37 2 1:42.28 GOLD - faster than par
05-09-2025 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 2 5/6F -- 86 81 0.5 1:26.67 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+5lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 5

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.8 and winning TS par is around 88.9. Runner versus par: rating edge +15.2 | TS edge +10.1. Benchmark fit: 5.4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Waterford Castle Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 46.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR91
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+5lb ahead of mark
FFR 91 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
108.2% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score26.7raw
Agreement4/6
FFR91+5lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+8lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 3.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 3.3 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Ascot Strong run 09-05-2026
2 Newmarket Troubled run 15-04-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Solid effort 23-03-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 23-02-2026
6 Ffos Las Finished well 13-08-2025
7 Ascot Run faded 21-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

8
09-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 2

Beat: Sassicaia (IRE), Devils Peak (GB), Enemy Agent (GB)

15-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 2

Beat: Ranga Tang (GB), Evanesco (GB), High Storm (GB) | Evanesco (GB) won next/later, Ranga Tang (GB) won next/later | Archers Bay (IRE) placed next/later, Impossible Mission (GB) placed next/later

23-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Gorey Gold (IRE), Born A Star (IRE) | Laureate Crown (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 53% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 62%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating91
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 86
Fast 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 91
All-weather 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 81
Placement evidence 68% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 82%
Mark room 76%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +8lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +8lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +8lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 86 | FFR 91 | Best FFR 94 | FFR edge +8
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer George Boughey
Jockey Zac Lloyd
Age 3
Draw 12
OR 86
Avg OR 89.5
OR vs Field -3.5
Rating 86
TS 79
Form 6-2222
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile2
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-04-2026 Newmarket Good 2 2:5.51 125.5
09-05-2026 Ascot Good To Firm 2 2:6.83 126.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 56% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 40 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/4F OwnerAura Racing & Teme Valley
Sire Sea The Stars Dam Deise Blue Damsire Dark Angel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Dwelt start and hampered start - soon in touch with leaders - headway and challenging over 2f out - pushed along and led narrowly over 1f out - ridden inside final furlong - kept on but headed final strides(op 13/2 tchd 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
09-05-2026 Ascot 2 1.2 Fast finish
15-04-2026 Newmarket 2 0.5 Fast finish
23-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 4 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
21-06-2025 | Ascot
Rating 76 OR Unrated
13-08-2025 | Ffos Las
Rating 68 OR Unrated
23-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 78 OR 81
23-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 81 OR 78
15-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 86 OR 80
09-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 91 OR 84
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:5.51 | 2:6.83

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 2

Approx winning time2m 30.94s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
09-05-2026 Ascot | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 3 2 7/4F 84 91 72 1.2 2:06.83 GOLD - faster than par
15-04-2026 Newmarket | 1m2f | Good | Class 3 2 15/2 80 86 79 0.5 2:05.51 GOLD - faster than par
23-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 2 4/6F 78 81 41 0.5 1:49.37 GOLD - faster than par
23-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 2 4/6F 81 78 54 2.8 1:28.40 GOLD - faster than par
13-08-2025 Ffos Las | 7½f | Good | Class 5 6 15/2 -- 68 31 0.2 1:31.88 GOLD - faster than par
21-06-2025 Ascot | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 1 7 40/1 -- 76 63 0.3 1:28.84 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+8lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.8 and winning TS par is around 88.9. Runner versus par: rating edge +9.2 | TS edge -9.9. Benchmark fit: 2.4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Guildmaster Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 45.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR87
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementCaution
FFR vs OR-13lb below mark
FFR 87 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
108.2% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score57.3raw
Agreement3/6
FFR87-13lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Very steady 4.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.1
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 York Run faded 14-05-2026
3 Newmarket Run faded 16-04-2026
1 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 22-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

17
14-05-2026 | York Finished 7

Beat: Wise Prince (IRE) | Christmas Day (IRE) won next/later

16-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 3

Beat: Galiyan (GB), Sir Griflet (IRE) | Galiyan (GB) won next/later | Amadeus Mozart (IRE) placed next/later

22-12-2025 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Northern Empire (IRE), The Stone Power (GB), Level Look (GB) | Buckland Belle (GB) won next/later, Felix Gem (GB) won next/later | Del Corso (GB) placed next/later, The Stone Power (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 50% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 50%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 66%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Track / draw Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 100
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 89
Placement evidence 48% Intent unclear
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 62%
Mark room 25%
Stable setup 74%
Recent evidence 42%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidenceRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: -9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -9lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 100 | FFR 87 | Best FFR 91 | FFR edge -9
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: finished 7th but still ran +8lb above the official mark.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Thady Gosden
Jockey Billy Loughnane
Age 3
Draw 15
OR 100
Avg OR 89.5
OR vs Field +10.5
Rating 93
TS 77
Form 1-37
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.67s recorded | FSP 108.2%
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2½f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2½f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
14-05-2026 York Good 7 2:12.30 132.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 68% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 35 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 68%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: b; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearb | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP28/1 OwnerGodolphin
Sire Teofilo Dam Gearanai Damsire Toccet
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
HC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Raced in third in touch with leaders - unbalanced 2f out - soon outpaced(op 7/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
14-05-2026 York 7 0.8 Run faded
16-04-2026 Newmarket 3 1.8 Run faded
22-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 1 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
22-12-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 89 OR Unrated
16-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 93 OR Unrated
14-05-2026 | York
Rating 100 OR 92
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:12.30

Last 3 trip positions: 7

Approx winning time2m 30.94s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
14-05-2026 York | 1m2½f | Good | Class 1 7 28/1 92 100 75 0.8 2:12.30 GOLD - faster than par
16-04-2026 Newmarket | 1m2f | Good | Class 2 3 100/30 -- 93 77 1.8 2:04.77 GOLD - faster than par
22-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 1 13/8F -- 89 58 0 1:38.11 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.8 and winning TS par is around 88.9. Runner versus par: rating edge +6.2 | TS edge -11.9. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Heyzoom Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 44.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR96
Speed105
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+11lb ahead of mark
FFR 96 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
105 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
109.8% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score33.4raw
Agreement3/6
FFR96+11lb vs OR
SpeedScore105Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+11lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 2.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 4.6 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Newbury Strong run 15-05-2026
2 Leicester Solid effort 25-04-2026
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 08-11-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

21
15-05-2026 | Newbury Finished 1

Beat: Besieged (GB), Salgados (GB), Echo Of Stars (IRE) | Besieged (GB) won next/later, Brocklesby Bill (GB) won next/later

25-04-2026 | Leicester Finished 2

Beat: King Of Thebes (GB), Yafreh (GB), Act Of Generosity (GB) | Yafreh (GB) placed next/later

08-11-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Mohaaraj (GB), Directors Cut (IRE), Hot And Cold (GB) | Directors Cut (IRE) won next/later, Hot And Cold (GB) won next/later | Qarreeb (GB) placed next/later, Sahara King (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 51% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 38%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/3
Best similar rating82
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 84
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 82
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 70
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 18%
Mark room 85%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +11lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +11lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +11lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 85 | FFR 96 | Best FFR 96 | FFR edge +11
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Owen Burrows
Jockey Saffie Osborne
Age 3
Draw 7
OR 85
Avg OR 89.5
OR vs Field -4.5
Rating 82
TS 54
Form 3-21
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 23.06s recorded | FSP 109.8%
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
25-04-2026 Leicester Good To Firm 2 2:9.11 129.1
15-05-2026 Newbury Good 1 2:5.19 125.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 63% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 34 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +1.2 trainer RTF positive at 63%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP2/1F OwnerShadwell Estate Company Ltd
Sire Dubawi Dam Alaflaak Damsire War Front
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
HC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Raced in second - pressed leader 4f out - ridden and led over 1f out - headed inside final furlong - kept on but no match for winner(op 9/4 tchd 6/5 and tchd 5/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
15-05-2026 Newbury 1 0 Fast finish
25-04-2026 Leicester 2 2 Fast finish
08-11-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) 3 1.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
08-11-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 70 OR Unrated
25-04-2026 | Leicester
Rating 82 OR Unrated
15-05-2026 | Newbury
Rating 84 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:9.11 | 2:5.19

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1

Approx winning time2m 30.94s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
15-05-2026 Newbury | 1m2f | Good | Class 3 1 2/1F -- 84 71 0 2:05.19 GOLD - faster than par
25-04-2026 Leicester | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 3 2 5/4F -- 82 54 2 2:09.11 GOLD - faster than par
08-11-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 5 3 10/11F -- 70 48 1.8 1:49.56 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+11lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.8 and winning TS par is around 88.9. Runner versus par: rating edge -8.8 | TS edge -34.9. Benchmark fit: -2.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Cannes Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 43.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Arc Ole Ole Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 42.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR89
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+4lb near mark
FFR 89 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.2% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score37.4raw
Agreement3/6
FFR89+4lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+4lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +2.5
Variance Very steady 3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.1
Ceiling Below requirement -0.7 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 York Finished well 14-05-2026
1 Doncaster Strong run 29-03-2026
1 Bath Strong run 30-10-2025
5 Newmarket Steady run 22-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

28
14-05-2026 | York Finished 1

Beat: Stoneacre Donny (GB), Baltic Fleet (IRE), Heroics (GB) | Heroics (GB) won next/later | Baltic Fleet (IRE) placed next/later, Dryburgh (IRE) placed next/later

29-03-2026 | Doncaster Finished 1

Beat: Siam Ruby (IRE), Dryburgh (IRE), Morbeh (GB) | Assaranca (IRE) won next/later, Kelly Burn (GB) won next/later | Dryburgh (IRE) placed next/later

30-10-2025 | Bath Finished 1

Beat: Heroics (GB), Alkumatic Jo Jo (IRE), Mohaab (GB) | Heroics (GB) won next/later, Kokoluna (GB) won next/later | Alkumatic Jo Jo (IRE) placed next/later, Blue Celestial (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 51% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 38%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 66%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Track / draw Question Class
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 2W / 2P Peak rating 77
Good 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 87
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 58% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 22%
Mark room 64%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +4lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +4lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 85 | FFR 89 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +4
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Dylan Cunha
Jockey Rowan Scott
Age 3
Draw 20
OR 85
Avg OR 89.5
OR vs Field -4.5
Rating 77
TS 46
Form 51-11
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m4f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
14-05-2026 York Good 1 2:34.08 154.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 37% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 35 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerGee Gees Racing & Partner
Sire Study Of Man Dam Alma Linda Damsire Invincible Spirit
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - steady headway over 2f out - joined leaders over 1f out - ridden and led narrowly final 110yds - just prevailed(op 13/8 tchd 11/8)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
14-05-2026 York 1 0 Fast finish
29-03-2026 Doncaster 1 0 Fast finish
30-10-2025 Bath 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 2 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
22-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 66 OR Unrated
30-10-2025 | Bath
Rating 71 OR Unrated
29-03-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 77 OR 71
14-05-2026 | York
Rating 87 OR 75
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:34.08

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time2m 30.94s
Last win at trip2:34.08 | York | 14-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +3.14s | OR 75 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
14-05-2026 York | 1m4f | Good | Class 4 1 100/30 75 87 75 0 2:34.08 AMBER - competitive
29-03-2026 Doncaster | 1m2f | Good To Soft | Class 5 1 6/4F 71 77 46 0 2:18.28 GOLD - faster than par
30-10-2025 Bath | 1m | Soft | Class 4 1 3/1 -- 71 60 0 1:46.02 GOLD - faster than par
22-10-2025 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 4 5 33/1 -- 66 62 3.2 1:40.53 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+4lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.8 and winning TS par is around 88.9. Runner versus par: rating edge -6.8 | TS edge -42.9. Benchmark fit: -2.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Birgham Dub Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 39.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR85
Speed84
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementCaution
FFR vs OR-8lb below mark
FFR 85 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
84 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
113.4% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score35.4raw
Agreement3/6
FFR85-8lb vs OR
SpeedScore84Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapNear ceiling+1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +2.0
Variance Reliable 8.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 3 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Longchamp Run faded 14-05-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 25-04-2026
1 Haydock Strong run 19-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

18
14-05-2026 | Longchamp Finished 5

Beat: Victoire Magique (GB), Derawar (IRE), Czajkowski (FR) | Rumoriste (GB) placed next/later, Victoire Magique (GB) placed next/later

25-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Florentine Law (IRE), Chasing Time (IRE), Kenneth (GB) | Chasing Time (IRE) won next/later, Ramli (GB) won next/later | Kenneth (GB) placed next/later

19-07-2025 | Haydock Finished 1

Beat: Haaderr (GB), Be The Standard (FR), Horu Kanu (GB) | Be The Standard (FR) won next/later, Haaderr (GB) won next/later | Horu Kanu (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 51% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 38%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 94
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 73
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 83
Placement evidence 47% Intent unclear
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 22%
Mark room 55%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 42%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +1lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 93 | FFR 85 | Best FFR 94 | FFR edge +1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam
Jockey David Egan
Age 3
Draw 5
OR 93
Avg OR 89.5
OR vs Field +3.5
Rating 83
TS 67
Form 1-15
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m4f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
25-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 2:37.55 157.6
14-05-2026 Longchamp (FR) Very Soft 5 2:43.64 163.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 45% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 35 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP67/10 OwnerP W Harris
Sire Sea The Moon Dam Guineve Damsire Frankel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripHC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - switched right after 4f - went second towards near side over 2f out - soon hung left - ridden to lead over 1f out - kept on final 110yds - comfortably(op 5/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
14-05-2026 Longchamp 5 3 Neutral finish
25-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
19-07-2025 Haydock 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
19-07-2025 | Haydock
Rating 73 OR Unrated
25-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 83 OR Unrated
14-05-2026 | Longchamp
Rating 94 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:37.55 | 2:43.64

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 5

Approx winning time2m 30.94s
Last win at trip2:37.55 | Southwell (AW) | 25-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +6.61s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
14-05-2026 Longchamp | 1m4f | Very Soft | Class 1 5 67/10 -- 94 47 3 2:43.64 GREY - below benchmark
25-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 3 1 4/1 -- 83 67 0 2:37.55 GREY - below benchmark
19-07-2025 Haydock | 7f | Good | Class 3 1 9/4 -- 73 20 0 1:29.23 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.8 and winning TS par is around 88.9. Runner versus par: rating edge -6.8 | TS edge -21.9. Benchmark fit: -2.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Galilean Quality Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 37.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR98
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+13lb ahead of mark
FFR 98 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.7% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score38.4raw
Agreement2/6
FFR98+13lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Below requirement -0.6 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 29-05-2026
3 Chester Strong run 07-05-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 11-04-2026
1 Pontefract Strong run 06-10-2025
4 Ayr Competitive 20-09-2025
6 Haydock Competitive 04-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 0 subsequent placer(s)

6
29-05-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Baltic Fleet (IRE), Mythical Bay (IRE), High Storm (GB) | Mythical Bay (IRE) won next/later

07-05-2026 | Chester Finished 3

Beat: Moment Of Light (GB), Be The Standard (FR), Oratorical (GB) | Mythical Bay (IRE) won next/later

11-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Magnetude (GB) | Magnetude (GB) won next/later

Today's conditions match 60% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 38%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 66%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 74
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 86
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 2W / 2P Peak rating 85
Placement evidence 64% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 20%
Mark room 91%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +13lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +13lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 85 | FFR 98 | Best FFR 98 | FFR edge +13
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer K R Burke
Jockey Pierre-Louis Jamin
Age 3
Draw 16
OR 85
Avg OR 89.5
OR vs Field -4.5
Rating 85
TS 35
Form 41-131
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 25.98s recorded | FSP 106.7%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m4f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 2:40.42 160.4
29-05-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 1 2:38.25 158.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 20 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerMiddleham Park Racing XV
Sire Teofilo Dam Dubai Quality Damsire Dubawi
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Made all - increased tempo over 3f out - shaken up and switched to near side over 2f out - ridden and hung right over 1f out - kept on well inside final furlong(tchd Evens)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
29-05-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
07-05-2026 Chester 3 1.5 Fast finish
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
04-09-2025 | Haydock
Rating 64 OR Unrated
20-09-2025 | Ayr
Rating 68 OR Unrated
06-10-2025 | Pontefract
Rating 74 OR Unrated
11-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 85 OR 78
07-05-2026 | Chester
Rating 86 OR 81
29-05-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating -- OR 81
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:40.42 | 2:38.25

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 1

Approx winning time2m 30.94s
Last win at trip-- | Wolverhampton (AW) | 29-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -- | OR 81 | weight 9-5

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
29-05-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 12f | Standard | Class 3 1 100/30 81 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
07-05-2026 Chester | 1m4½f | Good | Class 3 3 5/1 81 86 76 1.5 2:37.63 GREY - below benchmark
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 4 1 10/11 78 85 35 0 2:40.42 GREY - below benchmark
06-10-2025 Pontefract | 1m2f | Soft | Class 2 1 15/2 -- 74 27 0 2:18.87 GOLD - faster than par
20-09-2025 Ayr | 7f | Soft | Class 2 4 8/1 -- 68 22 2.8 1:36.05 GOLD - faster than par
04-09-2025 Haydock | 1m | Good | Class 3 6 15/2 -- 64 31 0.3 1:44.80 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.8 and winning TS par is around 88.9. Runner versus par: rating edge -7.8 | TS edge -53.9. Benchmark fit: -2.4.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Genchev Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 31.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Into The Light Front-runner
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 27.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Atomic City Late pressure closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 25.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Tierra Del Toro Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 24.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dial Me In Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 23.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Enceladus Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 22.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Golden Knight Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Believed Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Blue Hercules Front-runner
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 15.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Amora Queen Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

3:15 | Yarmouth

3:15 | Yarmouth | 10f

Class 4 | Good To Firm | QuinnBet Free Bet For Second To The SP Favourite Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

Race Confidence 67 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR73.47 rated runners | Top OR 77: Charlie's Choice
Winning Time Par2m 08.09s2 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 5.8) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; 1m6f - Stands' side; 1m2f - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-80
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos low
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • King's Hand leads the contextual model at 45.8
  • Clearer top profile: +9.0 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 08.09s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race Hold-up profile may be pace-compromised. 1 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield3
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
King's HandRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 87.0 2-1-4-2-1-3 9-7 6 OR 75 76 +1lb 10/3 +1.6 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 61% 73% 5/6 99 A Workable +10 BACKABLE PROFILE
Charlie's ChoiceRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 68.0 4-11-7-2-3-1 9-9 3 OR 77 84 +7lb 12/1 +3.6 Freshened up Big step up Solid field 64% 74% 4/6 99 D Well in +12 PRICE DEPENDENT
Penelope ValentineRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 58.8 2-3-9-1-4-5 9-5 4 OR 73 73 +0lb 12/5 -0.4 Standard rest Big step up Solid field 64% 68% 3/6 94 C Well in +16 PRICE DEPENDENT
Show Biz KidRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 56.2 1-4-6-7-4-8 9-4 7 OR 72 84 +12lb 9/2 -1.4 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 63% 72% 4/6 107 A Well in +14 WATCH ONLY
Sibling RivelryRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 50.5 7-1-3-1-6-1 9-3 5 OR 71 77 +6lb 9/2 -2.4 Standard rest Big drop back Solid field 58% 62% 2/6 95 C Well in +19 PRICE DEPENDENT
MoonjidRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 40.0 3-5-4-8-5-1 9-3 1 OR 71 69 -2lb 13/2 -2.4 Standard rest Big step up Solid field 57% 54% 2/6 105 E Well in +17 WATCH ONLY
NicatorRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 32.4 4-2-2-6 9-7 2 OR 75 75 +0lb 5/1 +1.6 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 59% 54% 2/6 96 E Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit King's Hand

King's Hand profiles as a closer with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A. Model alignment is 5/6. Draw data is a slight caution. Hold-up profile may be pace-compromised

Main Danger Charlie's Choice

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
King's Hand Closer
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 87.0
BACKABLE PROFILE
Decision read High-conviction profile where several independent layers agree.
Status BACKABLE PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR76
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+1lb near mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
114.6% 100% par
Best reasonClean current evidence; stake only if price is acceptable Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score45.8raw
Agreement5/6
FFR76+1lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWorkable mark+10lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 5.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 3.6 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Yarmouth Finished well 28-05-2026
1 Lingfield Strong run 18-05-2026
4 Kempton (AW) Run faded 18-03-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 28-02-2026
1 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 29-01-2026
3 Lingfield (AW) Solid effort 17-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

13
28-05-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 2

Beat: Harlington (FR), Man Of Desert (GB)

18-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 1

Beat: Dancing Tiger (IRE), Bobacious (GB), Oman (IRE) | Oman (IRE) won next/later | Dancing Tiger (IRE) placed next/later, Premier (FR) placed next/later

18-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Annexation (FR), Muy Muy Loco (IRE), Arths Gold (GB) | Arths Gold (GB) won next/later, Now The Eagle (FR) won next/later | Solanna (GB) placed next/later, Tortured Soul (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 61% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 55%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 78
Fast 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 55
All-weather 10 1W / 4P Peak rating 76
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 42%
Mark room 82%
Stable setup 64%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +10lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +10lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +10lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 75 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +10
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Joseph Parr
Jockey Jack Mitchell
Age 4
Draw 6
OR 75
Avg OR 73.4
OR vs Field +1.6
Rating 68
TS 57
Form 312412
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 5 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 114.6% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.60s recorded | FSP 114.6%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile6
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
28-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 2 2:6.07 126.1
18-05-2026 Lingfield Good 1 2:8.21 128.2
28-05-2026 Yarmouth Good To Firm 2 2:10.34 130.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 20% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 21 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 trainer RTF cold at 20%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: h; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearh | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP15/8 OwnerJ E Parr
Sire Kingman Dam Entity Damsire Shamardal
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Took keen hold - midfield - headway to lead after 2f - headed and weakened from over 1f out (jockey said gelding ran too free)(op 10/3 tchd 5/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
28-05-2026 Yarmouth 2 0.8 Fast finish
18-05-2026 Lingfield 1 0 Fast finish
18-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 4 2.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 5 runs with an official OR.
17-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 69 OR 66
29-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 74 OR 65
28-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 76 OR 69
18-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 68 OR 69
18-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating 78 OR 69
28-05-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating -- OR 74
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 2:6.07 | 2:8.21 | 2:10.34

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1 | 2

Approx winning time2m 08.09s
Last win at trip2:08.21 | Lingfield | 18-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +0.12s | OR 69 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
28-05-2026 Yarmouth | 10f | Good To Firm | Class 5 2 15/8 74 -- -- 0.8 -- GREY - no timing read
18-05-2026 Lingfield | 1m2f | Good | Class 5 1 9/2 69 78 57 0 2:08.21 GREEN - within 1% of par
18-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m3f | Standard To Slow | Class 5 4 11/4 69 68 31 2.5 2:23.83 GREY - below benchmark
28-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 5 2 13/8F 69 76 37 1 2:06.07 GOLD - faster than par
29-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 5 1 9/4J 65 74 -- 0 2:09.47 AMBER - competitive
17-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 5 3 7/2 66 69 57 2.5 2:04.89 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+10lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 83 and winning TS par is around 37. Runner versus par: rating edge -7.0 | TS edge +20.0. Benchmark fit: 1.1.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Charlie's Choice Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 68.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR84
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 84 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.6% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskFinishing speed may need a stronger pace
Model Score34.0raw
Agreement4/6
FFR84+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+12lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.4
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Windsor Finished well 18-05-2026
11 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 03-04-2026
7 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 21-03-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Solid effort 13-03-2026
3 Southwell (AW) Finished well 10-03-2026
1 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 28-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

15
18-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 4

Beat: Due To Henry (GB), Naval Command (GB), Don Simon (IRE) | Due To Henry (GB) placed next/later

03-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 11

Beat: Riyami (IRE), Appier (IRE), Diamond Bay (GB) | Appier (IRE) won next/later, Arc Zoosve (GB) won next/later | Dance Time (GB) placed next/later, Francesco Baracca (GB) placed next/later

21-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 7

Machete (FR) placed next/later, Rastnet (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 58%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 58%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 62
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 78
Fast 3 0W / 3P Peak rating 79
All-weather 40 6W / 21P Peak rating 85
Placement evidence 74% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 60%
Class fit 64%
Mark room 88%
Stable setup 80%
Recent evidence 76%
12 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +12lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +12lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +12lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 77 | FFR 84 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +12
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer David Simcock
Jockey Taryn Langley(5)
Age 6
Draw 3
OR 77
Avg OR 73.4
OR vs Field +3.6
Rating 68
TS 78
Form 132704
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 24 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 102.6% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 24.87s recorded | FSP 102.6%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile12
DEID
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
20-03-2025 Newcastle (AW) Standard To Slow 5 2:10.97 131
19-06-2025 Chelmsford (AW) Standard To Slow 3 2:5.00 125
25-11-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 2 2:5.22 125.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-1.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 11% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 31 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -1.2 trainer RTF cold at 11%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP25/1 OwnerThe Future
Sire Lightning Spear Dam Aliyana Damsire Iffraaj
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Always behind(op 18/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 4.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
18-05-2026 Windsor 4 2.5 Fast finish
03-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) 11 0.1 Neutral finish
21-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) 7 11 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
28-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 85 OR 77
10-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 80 OR 80
13-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 84 OR 80
21-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 56 OR 80
03-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 68 OR 79
18-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 78 OR 78
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip12 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 2:10.97 | 2:5.00 | 2:5.22

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 3 | 2

Approx winning time2m 08.09s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
18-05-2026 Windsor | 1m3½f | Good | Class 4 4 25/1 78 78 49 2.5 2:28.58 GREY - below benchmark
03-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 4 11 14/1 79 68 63 0.1 3:23.08 GREY - below benchmark
21-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m4½f | Standard | Class 4 7 9/1 80 56 38 11 2:44.92 GREY - below benchmark
13-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 3 2 7/2 80 84 35 2 3:03.71 GREY - below benchmark
10-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m3f | Standard | Class 4 3 4/1 80 80 59 4.2 2:23.68 GREY - below benchmark
28-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 5 1 5/2 77 85 78 0 2:30.50 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+12lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 83 and winning TS par is around 37. Runner versus par: rating edge +2.0 | TS edge +41.0. Benchmark fit: 1.8.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Penelope Valentine Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 58.8
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR73
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+0lb near mark
FFR 73 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.8% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score34.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR73+0lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+16lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +1.8
Variance Very steady 2.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.3
Ceiling Par capable 2.8 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Nottingham Solid effort 31-05-2026
3 Southwell (AW) Solid effort 11-03-2026
9 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 27-02-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 26-01-2026
4 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 31-12-2025
5 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 08-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

9
31-05-2026 | Nottingham Finished 2

Beat: Great Blasket (IRE), The Sweet Escape (GB), Bass Player (IRE)

11-03-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Cancelled (IRE), Safe Idea (GB) | Rockin The Boat (IRE) won next/later | Cancelled (IRE) placed next/later, Dream Illusion (GB) placed next/later

27-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Bear Rock (IRE), Cartwheel (GB) | Brazilian Rose (IRE) won next/later | Cartwheel (GB) placed next/later, Mereside Diva (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 57%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 58%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 56
Good 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 52
Fast 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 60
All-weather 18 4W / 10P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 68% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 52%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 70%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +16lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +16lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +16lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 73 | FFR 73 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +16
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer James Owen
Jockey Mason Paetel(5)
Age 4
Draw 4
OR 73
Avg OR 73.4
OR vs Field -0.4
Rating 73
TS 64
Form 4-1932
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 17 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 104.8% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 24.01s recorded | FSP 104.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m½f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m½f
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
26-01-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 1 1:48.81 108.8
31-05-2026 Nottingham Good 2 1:47.14 107.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 18 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerThe Rogues Gallery
Sire Blue Point Dam Paco's Angel Damsire Paco Boy
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In rear but in touch with leaders - headway over 1f out - no impression inside final furlong(op 9/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
31-05-2026 Nottingham 2 0.3 Neutral finish
11-03-2026 Southwell (AW) 3 3.5 Neutral finish
27-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) 9 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 5 runs with an official OR.
08-12-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 62 OR 69
31-12-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 71 OR 69
26-01-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 80 OR 69
27-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 73 OR 75
11-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 73 OR 74
31-05-2026 | Nottingham
Rating -- OR 72
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:48.81 | 1:47.14

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2

Approx winning time2m 08.09s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
31-05-2026 Nottingham | 8.5f | Good | Class 5 2 7/1 72 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
11-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 3 3/1 74 73 29 3.5 1:42.39 GOLD - faster than par
27-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 2 9 11/1 75 73 64 0.3 1:24.47 GOLD - faster than par
26-01-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 5 1 11/1 69 80 49 0 1:48.81 GOLD - faster than par
31-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 4 6/1 69 71 53 0.2 1:24.52 GOLD - faster than par
08-12-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 5 3/1 69 62 49 0.8 1:28.44 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+16lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 83 and winning TS par is around 37. Runner versus par: rating edge -3.0 | TS edge +27.0. Benchmark fit: 1.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Show Biz Kid Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 56.2
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR84
Speed107
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+12lb ahead of mark
FFR 84 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
107 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.5% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score31.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR84+12lb vs OR
SpeedScore107Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+14lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; Mild bounce watch; Minor upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.2
Variance Reliable 7.9% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 1.9
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 16.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Bath Finished well 26-05-2026
4 Windsor Finished well 11-05-2026
6 Nottingham Troubled run 18-04-2026
7 Southwell (AW) Run faded 12-12-2025
4 Southwell (AW) Finished well 26-11-2025
8 Yarmouth Troubled run 21-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

22
26-05-2026 | Bath Finished 1

Beat: Jimmy Mark (IRE), Knightmare (IRE), Bobby Dassler (IRE) | Bobby Dassler (IRE) won next/later | Knightmare (IRE) placed next/later, Racing Demon (GB) placed next/later

11-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 4

Beat: Little She (FR), Lennys Spirit (FR), Silver Gunn (IRE) | Hengest (GB) won next/later | Alazwar (IRE) placed next/later, Bownder (IRE) placed next/later

18-04-2026 | Nottingham Finished 6

Beat: Volto Di Medusa (IRE), In The Post (GB), Dream Pirate (GB) | Bay Dream Believer (IRE) won next/later, Joseph (GB) won next/later | Boubyan (IRE) placed next/later, Caph Star (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 63% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 51%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating77
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
Good 6 1W / 1P Peak rating 79
Fast 7 1W / 4P Peak rating 81
All-weather 8 0W / 2P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 34%
Mark room 94%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)9 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +14lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +14lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +14lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 84 | Best FFR 86 | FFR edge +14
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Julia & Shelley Birkett
Jockey Joe Bradnam(7)
Age 5
Draw 7
OR 72
Avg OR 73.4
OR vs Field -1.4
Rating 65
TS 54
Form 47-641
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 14 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 102.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 24.22s recorded | FSP 102.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile9
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
18-04-2026 Nottingham Good 6 2:13.29 133.3
11-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 4 2:10.41 130.4
26-05-2026 Bath Firm 1 2:7.37 127.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 55% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 23 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: b; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearb | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP4/1 OwnerIn It To Win Partnership
Sire Acclamation Dam Fashion Theory Damsire Dubawi
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Dwelt start - soon midfield - good headway over 2f out - soon not clear run and waiting for room - in the clear over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
26-05-2026 Bath 1 0 Fast finish
11-05-2026 Windsor 4 1.2 Fast finish
18-04-2026 Nottingham 6 1.8 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
21-10-2025 | Yarmouth
Rating 69 OR 71
26-11-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 72 OR 70
12-12-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 63 OR 69
18-04-2026 | Nottingham
Rating 65 OR 67
11-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 69 OR 66
26-05-2026 | Bath
Rating 77 OR 65
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 2:13.29 | 2:10.41 | 2:7.37

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 4 | 1

Approx winning time2m 08.09s
Last win at trip2:07.37 | Bath | 26-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -0.72s | OR 65 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
26-05-2026 Bath | 1m2f | Firm | Class 6 1 4/1 65 77 61 0 2:07.37 GOLD - faster than par
11-05-2026 Windsor | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 5 4 11/2 66 69 56 1.2 2:10.41 AMBER - competitive
18-04-2026 Nottingham | 1m2f | Good | Class 5 6 17/2 67 65 54 1.8 2:13.29 GREY - below benchmark
12-12-2025 Southwell (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 5 7 10/1 69 63 41 3.5 2:39.80 GREY - below benchmark
26-11-2025 Southwell (AW) | 1m3f | Standard | Class 5 4 20/1 70 72 63 2 2:24.06 GREY - below benchmark
21-10-2025 Yarmouth | 1m2f | Good To Soft | Class 5 8 33/1 71 69 62 1.8 2:07.64 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+14lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 83 and winning TS par is around 37. Runner versus par: rating edge -18.0 | TS edge +17.0. Benchmark fit: 0.3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sibling Rivelry Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 50.5
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement2/6
FFR77
Speed95
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+6lb ahead of mark
FFR 77 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
95 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.4% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score36.8raw
Agreement2/6
FFR77+6lb vs OR
SpeedScore95Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+19lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +3.5
Variance Reliable 8.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7
Ceiling Ceiling edge 10.3 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 Goodwood Run faded 22-05-2026
1 Windsor Troubled run 11-05-2026
3 Yarmouth Solid effort 21-10-2025
1 Newcastle (AW) Strong run 02-10-2025
6 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 04-09-2025
1 Goodwood Finished well 22-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

9
22-05-2026 | Goodwood Finished 7

Beat: Miss Dolly Rocker (GB), Amora Queen (GER) | Venetia (GB) won next/later | Quebella (GB) placed next/later

11-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 1

Beat: Kindly Queen (IRE), Lilly Lux (FR), Mrembo (GB) | Mrembo (GB) won next/later | Queen Of Astolat (IRE) placed next/later

21-10-2025 | Yarmouth Finished 3

Beat: Silver Chamber (GB), Sound Janet (GB), Gold Penny (GB) | Likealot (GB) won next/later | Gold Penny (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating75
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 69
Good 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 70
Fast 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 75
All-weather 4 2W / 2P Peak rating 71
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 42%
FFR vs OR gives +19lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +19lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +19lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 71 | FFR 77 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +19
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer David Simcock
Jockey Marco Ghiani
Age 4
Draw 5
OR 71
Avg OR 73.4
OR vs Field -2.4
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 613-17
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.4% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 22.92s recorded | FSP 100.4%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m3½f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m3½f
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
21-10-2025 Yarmouth Good To Soft 3 2:26.07 146.1
11-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 1 2:28.17 148.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 11% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 27 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.8 trainer RTF cold at 11%; recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP15/2 OwnerThe Future
Sire Lightning Spear Dam Aliyana Damsire Iffraaj
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
22-05-2026 Goodwood 7 5 Run faded
11-05-2026 Windsor 1 0 Fast finish
21-10-2025 Yarmouth 3 0.8 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
22-08-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 70 OR 62
04-09-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 66 OR 67
02-10-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 71 OR 66
21-10-2025 | Yarmouth
Rating 69 OR 67
11-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 75 OR 66
22-05-2026 | Goodwood
Rating 62 OR 71
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:26.07 | 2:28.17

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 1

Approx winning time2m 08.09s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
22-05-2026 Goodwood | 1m4f | Good | Class 3 7 15/2 71 62 12 5 2:41.78 GREY - below benchmark
11-05-2026 Windsor | 1m3½f | Good To Firm | Class 5 1 7/2 66 75 66 0 2:28.17 GREY - below benchmark
21-10-2025 Yarmouth | 1m3½f | Good To Soft | Class 4 3 11/1 67 69 59 0.8 2:26.00 GREY - below benchmark
02-10-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 1m4½f | Standard | Class 4 1 5/1 66 71 -- 0 2:48.76 GREY - below benchmark
04-09-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 4 6 13/2 67 66 26 1.2 2:34.78 GREY - below benchmark
22-08-2025 Goodwood | 1m4f | Good | Class 4 1 14/1 62 70 46 0 2:39.67 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+19lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 83 and winning TS par is around 37. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Moonjid Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 40.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance suitability is a caution (dei e).
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement2/6
FFR69
Speed105
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-2lb near mark
FFR 69 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
105 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score26.3raw
Agreement2/6
FFR69-2lb vs OR
SpeedScore105Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWell handicapped+17lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.4
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Beverley Solid effort 30-05-2026
5 Pontefract Run faded 22-05-2026
4 Nottingham Run faded 18-04-2026
8 Southwell (AW) Run faded 07-04-2026
5 Chelmsford (AW) Run faded 12-03-2026
1 Nottingham Strong run 15-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

9
30-05-2026 | Beverley Finished 3

Beat: Mafting (GB), Sir William (IRE) | Sportingsilvermine (IRE) placed next/later

22-05-2026 | Pontefract Finished 5

Beat: Powerful Response (IRE), Keats House (IRE), Mount King (IRE) | No Knee Never (IRE) placed next/later

18-04-2026 | Nottingham Finished 4

Beat: Pension Pot (GB), Kokanee (IRE), Influential (IRE) | Highland Olly (GB) won next/later, Influential (IRE) won next/later | Pension Pot (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 57% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 55%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 70
Good 7 1W / 2P Peak rating 82
Fast 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 73
All-weather 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 74
Placement evidence 54% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 44%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 34%
FFR vs OR gives +17lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedTrip evidence still asks questionsRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +17lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +17lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 71 | FFR 69 | Best FFR 88 | FFR edge +17
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Michael Appleby
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa
Age 4
Draw 1
OR 71
Avg OR 73.4
OR vs Field -2.4
Rating 77
TS 62
Form -58453
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 104.0% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 27.15s recorded | FSP 104.0%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile2
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
13-06-2025 Sandown Good 9 2:10.76 130.8
30-05-2026 Beverley Good To Firm 3 2:3.41 123.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 47% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 2/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/1 OwnerThe Horse Watchers 5
Sire Mohaather Dam Sweet Cecily Damsire Kodiac
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In touch with leaders - headway on outer over 2f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 7/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Beverley 3 0.3 Neutral finish
22-05-2026 Pontefract 5 1 Run faded
18-04-2026 Nottingham 4 0.1 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 5 runs with an official OR.
15-10-2025 | Nottingham
Rating 82 OR 69
12-03-2026 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 70 OR 74
07-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 72 OR 74
18-04-2026 | Nottingham
Rating 77 OR 73
22-05-2026 | Pontefract
Rating 70 OR 73
30-05-2026 | Beverley
Rating -- OR 72
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:10.76 | 2:3.41

Last 3 trip positions: 9 | 3

Approx winning time2m 08.09s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Beverley | 10f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 11/1 72 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
22-05-2026 Pontefract | 1m | Good To Soft | Class 5 5 11/1 73 70 47 1 1:46.06 GOLD - faster than par
18-04-2026 Nottingham | 1m½f | Good | Class 5 4 9/2 73 77 39 0.1 1:46.81 GOLD - faster than par
07-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 8 6/1 74 72 62 0.3 1:39.50 GOLD - faster than par
12-03-2026 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 5 9/2 74 70 46 0.5 1:39.34 GOLD - faster than par
15-10-2025 Nottingham | 1m½f | Good | Class 5 1 6/4F 69 82 66 0 1:47.13 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+17lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 83 and winning TS par is around 37. Runner versus par: rating edge -6.0 | TS edge +25.0. Benchmark fit: 1.1.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Nicator Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 32.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

3:25 | Ripon

3:25 | Ripon | 6f

Class 2 | Good | Ripon Races Ladies' Day Handicap

Race Confidence 72 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAPace-pressure sprint
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR86.67 rated runners | Top OR 95: Another Baar
Winning Time Par1m 10.70s6 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3)Stalls Straight - Stands' side; Round - Inside; 1m4f - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-105
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Pace-pressure sprint | chaos medium
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Wild Clary leads the contextual model at 46.5
  • Clearer top profile: +19.2 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 10.70s
Race shape Pace-pressure sprint Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race.
Leaders2
Prominent3
Midfield2
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Wild ClaryRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 84.0 1-3-2-4-2-2 9-1 2 OR 87 87 +0lb 8/11 +0.4 Quick return Same trip Strong field 63% 76% 4/6 109 B Well in +15 BACKABLE PROFILE
Another BaarRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 70.4 10-17-12-1-11-8 9-9 5 OR 95 83 -12lb 14/1 +8.4 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 59% 70% 3/6 90 B Ceiling +5 CAUTION PROFILE
Dark ThirtyRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 47.1 11-1-7-10-13-6 9-7 3 OR 93 73 -20lb 9/2 +6.4 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 54% 63% 3/6 98 A Ceiling +2 CAUTION PROFILE
MiraculousRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 26.6 3-9-5-5-6-9 8-4 4 OR 76 84 +8lb 5/1 -10.6 Quick return Same trip Strong field 58% 56% 3/6 95 C Well in +14 CAUTION PROFILE
Strong WarriorRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 21.3 12-10-14-11-2-1 9-3 6 OR 89 78 -11lb 11/1 +2.4 Long absence Up in trip Strong field 54% 48% 2/6 103 C Ceiling +0 CAUTION PROFILE
Dark Cloud RisingRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 9.9 16-9-10-5-1 9-2 7 OR 88 93 +5lb 12/1 +1.4 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 57% 63% 3/6 88 A Ceiling +5 CAUTION PROFILE
Vince L'AmourRun style: ProminentFinish: Sustained speed 6.1 6-13-13-1-8-2 8-6 1 OR 78 63 -15lb 12/1 -8.6 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 58% 59% 2/6 87 B Workable +10 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Wild Clary

Wild Clary profiles as a front-runner with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is B. Model alignment is 4/6. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Another Baar

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Wild Clary Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 84.0
BACKABLE PROFILE
Decision read High-conviction profile where several independent layers agree.
Status BACKABLE PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR87
Speed109
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR+0lb near mark
FFR 87 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
109 Par 100
FSP%even finish
99.7% 100% par
Best reasonClean current evidence; stake only if price is acceptable Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score46.5raw
Agreement4/6
FFR87+0lb vs OR
SpeedScore109Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+15lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 8.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.1
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 20.8 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Newbury Strong run 11-06-2026
3 Carlisle Solid effort 30-05-2026
2 Ripon Strong run 16-04-2026
4 Kempton (AW) Run faded 28-03-2026
2 Haydock Troubled run 27-09-2025
2 Yarmouth Run faded 17-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

9
11-06-2026 | Newbury Finished 1

Beat: Kiniro (GB), Pressure's On (FR), Never Just A Dream (IRE)

30-05-2026 | Carlisle Finished 3

Beat: Rousing Encore (IRE), Jordan Electrics (GB), Fivethousandtoone (IRE)

16-04-2026 | Ripon Finished 2

Beat: American Style (GB), Roberto Caro (IRE), Modern Times (GB) | Rock Opera (GB) won next/later | Almarada Prince (IRE) placed next/later, Fortamour (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 63% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 59%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 1W / 4P Peak rating 88
Good 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 78
Fast 5 0W / 4P Peak rating 79
All-weather 4 1W / 2P Peak rating 82
Placement evidence 76% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 43%
Mark room 97%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (B)12 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +15lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +15lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +15lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 87 | FFR 87 | Best FFR 102 | FFR edge +15
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Richard Hannon
Jockey Kevin Stott
Age 4
Draw 2
OR 87
Avg OR 86.6
OR vs Field +0.4
Rating 88
TS 83
Form 2-4231
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 99.7% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile12
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
16-04-2026 Ripon Good To Soft 2 1:11.65 71.7
30-05-2026 Carlisle Good To Firm 3 1:11.63 71.6
11-06-2026 Newbury Good To Soft 1 1:13.03 73
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 56% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 7 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/8F OwnerHollywood Racing & Barnane Stud
Sire Dark Angel Dam Chrysanthemum Damsire Danehill Dancer
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Raced near side - in touch with leaders - headway and pressed leaders over 1f out - went second inside final furlong - kept on final 110yds - just held - 2nd of 10 in group(op 13/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-06-2026 Newbury 1 0 Neutral finish
30-05-2026 Carlisle 3 0.3 Neutral finish
16-04-2026 Ripon 2 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 4 runs with an official OR.
17-09-2025 | Yarmouth
Rating 86 OR 78
27-09-2025 | Haydock
Rating 87 OR 80
28-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 80 OR 82
16-04-2026 | Ripon
Rating 88 OR 81
30-05-2026 | Carlisle
Rating -- OR 82
11-06-2026 | Newbury
Rating -- OR 82
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip12 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:11.65 | 1:11.63 | 1:13.03

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 3 | 1

Approx winning time1m 10.70s
Last win at trip-- | Newbury | 11-06-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -- | OR 82 | weight 9-6

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-06-2026 Newbury | 6f | Good To Soft | Class 4 1 11/8F 82 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
30-05-2026 Carlisle | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 3 3 13/2 82 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
16-04-2026 Ripon | 6f | Good To Soft | Class 4 2 6/1 81 88 83 0.3 1:11.65 AMBER - competitive
28-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 3 4 7/1 82 80 66 1.2 1:12.33 AMBER - competitive
27-09-2025 Haydock | 6f | Good To Soft | Class 3 2 8/1 80 87 -- 1.5 1:11.95 AMBER - competitive
17-09-2025 Yarmouth | 6f | Soft | Class 4 2 10/1 78 86 61 0.2 1:15.34 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+15lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 96.7 and winning TS par is around 71.2. Runner versus par: rating edge -8.7 | TS edge +11.8. Benchmark fit: 1.8.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Another Baar Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 70.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR83
Speed90
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-12lb below mark
FFR 83 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
9 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting profile, but FFR sits below today's mark Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score27.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR83-12lb vs OR
SpeedScore90Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapNear ceiling+5lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.4
Variance Very steady 2.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.6
Ceiling Below requirement -3.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
10 Epsom Competitive 06-06-2026
17 Bahrain Competitive 19-02-2026
12 Bahrain Run faded 29-01-2026
1 Bahrain Finished well 16-01-2026
11 Bahrain Run faded 02-01-2026
8 Bahrain Run faded 19-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

25
06-06-2026 | Epsom Finished 10

Beat: Ziggy's Triton (IRE), Dyonisos (FR), Brazen Bolt (GB) | Vintage Clarets (GB) placed next/later

19-02-2026 | Bahrain Finished 17

Beat: Nationwide (IRE) | Dream Out Loud (IRE) won next/later, Dubai Bling (IRE) won next/later | Desert Cop (GB) placed next/later, Grand Grey (IRE) placed next/later

29-01-2026 | Bahrain Finished 12

Beat: Inveigle (GB), Redemption Time (GB), Buffer Zone (GB) | Dream Out Loud (IRE) won next/later, Dubai Bling (IRE) won next/later | Desert Cop (GB) placed next/later, Kaasib (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 59% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 59%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating76
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 17 2W / 8P Peak rating 102
Good 9 1W / 3P Peak rating 89
Fast 15 6W / 9P Peak rating 100
All-weather 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 91
Placement evidence 70% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 67%
Mark room 67%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (B)17 similar-trip runs recordedTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +5lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +5lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 95 | FFR 83 | Best FFR 100 | FFR edge +5
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley
Jockey Mikey Sheehy
Age 6
Draw 5
OR 95
Avg OR 86.6
OR vs Field +8.4
Rating 73
TS --
Form -1000
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 11 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 103.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 24.49s recorded | FSP 103.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile17
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
06-09-2024 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 5 1:13.84 73.8
21-07-2025 Ayr Good To Soft 2 1:14.75 74.8
27-09-2025 Ripon Good 9 1:12.36 72.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 57% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 12 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP66/1 OwnerThink And Become
Sire Mayson Dam Rapid Recruit Damsire Fast Company
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Always behind

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
06-06-2026 Epsom 10 1.5 Neutral finish
19-02-2026 Bahrain 17 1.2 Neutral finish
29-01-2026 Bahrain 12 1 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 3 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
19-12-2025 | Bahrain
Rating 76 OR Unrated
02-01-2026 | Bahrain
Rating 43 OR Unrated
16-01-2026 | Bahrain
Rating 100 OR 88
29-01-2026 | Bahrain
Rating 84 OR 102
19-02-2026 | Bahrain
Rating 73 OR 100
06-06-2026 | Epsom
Rating -- OR 98
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip17 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:13.84 | 1:14.75 | 1:12.36

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 2 | 9

Approx winning time1m 10.70s
Last win at trip1:11.94 | Doncaster | 03-08-2024

Last distance win context: vs par +1.24s | OR 67 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
06-06-2026 Epsom | 5f | Good To Soft | Class 2 10 66/1 98 -- -- 1.5 -- GREY - no timing read
19-02-2026 Bahrain | 5f | Good To Firm | -- 17 -- 100 73 -- 1.2 1:00.45 GOLD - faster than par
29-01-2026 Bahrain | 6f | Good To Firm | -- 12 -- 102 84 -- 1 1:13.81 GREY - below benchmark
16-01-2026 Bahrain | 5f | Good To Firm | Class 1 1 -- 88 100 -- 0 0:59.64 GOLD - faster than par
02-01-2026 Bahrain | 6f | Good | -- 11 -- -- 43 -- 0.8 1:13.52 GREY - below benchmark
19-12-2025 Bahrain | 5f | Good | -- 8 -- -- 76 -- 2.8 1:00.57 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+5lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 96.7 and winning TS par is around 71.2. Runner versus par: rating edge +3.3. Benchmark fit: 1.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Dark Thirty Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 47.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR73
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-20lb below mark
FFR 73 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%faded late
97.8% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score27.4raw
Agreement3/6
FFR73-20lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapNear ceiling+2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.1
Variance Very steady 2.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.6
Ceiling Par capable 1.9 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
11 Thirsk Competitive 31-05-2026
1 York Strong run 13-05-2026
7 Newmarket Run faded 15-04-2026
10 Doncaster Run faded 29-03-2026
13 Ayr Run faded 20-09-2025
6 York Run faded 23-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

17
31-05-2026 | Thirsk Finished 11

Beat: Al Shabab Storm (GB), Annaf (IRE) | Toyotomi (FR) won next/later

13-05-2026 | York Finished 1

Beat: Binhareer (IRE), Fandom (GB), Pilgrim (GB) | Fandom (GB) won next/later, Sondad (GB) won next/later | Indian Run (IRE) placed next/later, Woven (GB) placed next/later

15-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 7

Beat: Divine Libra (IRE), Realign (FR), Humam (IRE) | Diligently (GB) won next/later, Double Rush (IRE) won next/later | Andesite (GB) placed next/later, Baldomero (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 54% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 38%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating98
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 9 0W / 2P Peak rating 99
Good 10 4W / 5P Peak rating 104
Fast 10 1W / 3P Peak rating 99
All-weather 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 92
Placement evidence 63% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 17%
Mark room 58%
Stable setup 64%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)17 similar-trip runs recordedTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +2lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 93 | FFR 73 | Best FFR 95 | FFR edge +2
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Sean Quinn
Jockey Jason Hart
Age 6
Draw 3
OR 93
Avg OR 86.6
OR vs Field +6.4
Rating 80
TS 65
Form 0-0710
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 97.8% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 24.25s recorded | FSP 97.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile17
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-04-2026 Newmarket Good 7 1:12.56 72.6
13-05-2026 York Good 1 1:11.91 71.9
31-05-2026 Thirsk Good 11 1:10.62 70.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 25% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 18 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 25%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerDark Thirty Partners
Sire Starspangledbanner Dam Beach Wedding Damsire Footstepsinthesand
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Disputed lead - outpaced and no chance with winner over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 20/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
31-05-2026 Thirsk 11 2.5 Neutral finish
13-05-2026 York 1 0 Fast finish
15-04-2026 Newmarket 7 0.5 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 5 runs with an official OR.
23-08-2025 | York
Rating 87 OR 92
20-09-2025 | Ayr
Rating 82 OR 92
29-03-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 71 OR 90
15-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 80 OR 89
13-05-2026 | York
Rating 98 OR 87
31-05-2026 | Thirsk
Rating -- OR 93
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip17 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:12.56 | 1:11.91 | 1:10.62

Last 3 trip positions: 7 | 1 | 11

Approx winning time1m 10.70s
Last win at trip1:11.91 | York | 13-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.21s | OR 87 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
31-05-2026 Thirsk | 6f | Good | Class 2 11 6/1 93 -- -- 2.5 -- GREY - no timing read
13-05-2026 York | 6f | Good | Class 2 1 11/1 87 98 80 0 1:11.91 AMBER - competitive
15-04-2026 Newmarket | 6f | Good | Class 2 7 22/1 89 80 65 0.5 1:12.56 GREY - below benchmark
29-03-2026 Doncaster | 6f | Good To Soft | Class 3 10 9/1 90 71 30 0.5 1:16.48 GREY - below benchmark
20-09-2025 Ayr | 6f | Soft | Class 2 13 22/1 92 82 75 0.2 1:13.66 GREY - below benchmark
23-08-2025 York | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 2 6 33/1 92 87 82 2.2 1:10.42 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 96.7 and winning TS par is around 71.2. Runner versus par: rating edge -16.7 | TS edge -6.2. Benchmark fit: -2.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Miraculous Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 26.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Strong Warrior Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 21.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dark Cloud Rising Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 9.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Vince L'Amour Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 6.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

3:40 | Ascot

3:40 | Ascot | 12f

Class 1 | Good To Firm | Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies)

Race Confidence 64 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR96.810 rated runners | Top OR 111: Legacy Link
Winning Time Par2m 29.89s10 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.9, Centre 8.7, Far side 8.5, Round 7.6) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; Round - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos medium
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Legacy Link leads the contextual model at 62.5
  • Clearer top profile: +13.1 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 29.89s
Race shape Balanced context race Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders4
Prominent3
Midfield0
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Legacy LinkRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 63.0 2-1-4-1-3 9-2 1 OR 111 111 +0lb 6/4 +14.2 Standard rest Big step up Strong field 53% 66% 3/6 97 D Ceiling +0 PRICE DEPENDENT
Earth ShotRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 44.0 2-1-2 9-2 6 OR 100 97 -3lb 4/1 +3.2 Standard rest Big step up Strong field 45% 59% 3/6 93 C Stiff -3 PRICE DEPENDENT
Johanna WalshRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 32.8 1-3-3 9-2 7 OR 92 86 -6lb 15/2 -4.8 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 39% 44% 2/6 100 D Stiff -6 CAUTION PROFILE
MaldivesRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 29.8 6-2-3-7-6-4 9-2 9 OR -- 81 +26lb 125/1 -- Freshened up Big step up Strong field 54% 49% 2/6 94 E Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
VenetiaRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 28.7 1-2-1-3-2-6 9-2 11 OR 82 120 +38lb 50/1 -14.8 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 64% 65% 1/6 99 C Well in +38 CAUTION PROFILE
Brilliant StarRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 17.3 5-1-1-2 9-2 2 OR 90 84 -6lb 33/1 -6.8 Standard rest Big step up Strong field 47% 57% 2/6 88 D Ceiling +3 CAUTION PROFILE
Dark LucindaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 16.7 1 9-2 10 OR -- 82 -- 16/1 -- Freshened up Big step up Strong field 51% 54% 0/6 95 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Golden OrbitRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 14.2 4-1 9-2 5 OR 86 91 +5lb 25/1 -10.8 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 49% 53% 1/6 96 E Workable +9 CAUTION PROFILE
ComposingRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 10.2 6-5-6-3-4-1 9-2 8 OR 102 94 -8lb 15/2 +5.2 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 34% 35% 1/6 99 E Stiff -8 CAUTION PROFILE
Gilded PrizeRun style: Front-runnerFinish: No clear style 7.8 5-1-1-1 9-2 3 OR 111 94 -17lb 4/1 +14.2 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 39% 38% 1/6 99 D Stiff -10 CAUTION PROFILE
Lady RoisiaRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 4.8 3-1-3 9-2 12 OR 92 95 +3lb 20/1 -4.8 Freshened up Big step up Strong field 50% 46% 1/6 98 E Ceiling +3 CAUTION PROFILE
Warriors WhisperRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 4.8 2-3-1 9-2 4 OR 102 93 -9lb 25/1 +5.2 Layoff check Big step up Strong field 39% 37% 0/6 98 D Stiff -6 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Legacy Link

Legacy Link profiles as a unclear with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 3/6. Draw data is a slight caution. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Earth Shot

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Legacy Link Context profile
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 63.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR111
Speed97
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+0lb near mark
FFR 111 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%faded late
97.6% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score62.5raw
Agreement3/6
FFR111+0lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+0lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Reliable 5.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.6
Ceiling Par capable 3.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Epsom Solid effort 05-06-2026
1 York Strong run 13-05-2026
4 Newmarket Competitive 10-10-2025
1 Haydock Strong run 05-09-2025
3 Newmarket (July) Finished well 08-08-2025
-- Auteuil (FR) Steady run 27-04-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

9
13-05-2026 | York Finished 1

Beat: Felicitas (GB), K Sarra (GB), Moments Of Joy (USA)

10-10-2025 | Newmarket Finished 4

Beat: Moments Of Joy (USA), Composing (IRE), Dance To The Music (GB) | Evolutionist (IRE) won next/later, Precise (IRE) won next/later | Amora Queen (GER) placed next/later, Dance To The Music (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 53% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 71%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Class Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating66
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 1P Peak rating --
Good 3 2W / 2P Peak rating 111
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 66
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 49
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 93%
Mark room 52%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +0lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +0lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 111 | FFR 111 | Best FFR 111 | FFR edge 0
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Thady Gosden
Jockey Colin Keane
Age 3
Draw 1
OR 111
Avg OR 96.8
OR vs Field +14.2
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 314-12
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 97.6% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2½f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2½f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
13-05-2026 York Good 1 2:11.15 131.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 66% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 13 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 66%; recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP3/1 OwnerJuddmonte
Sire Dubawi Dam Chiasma Damsire Galileo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
05-06-2026 Epsom 2 3.8 Neutral finish
13-05-2026 York 1 0 Neutral finish
10-10-2025 Newmarket 4 0.3 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
08-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 66 OR Unrated
05-09-2025 | Haydock
Rating 83 OR Unrated
10-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 99 OR Unrated
13-05-2026 | York
Rating 111 OR 105
05-06-2026 | Epsom
Rating -- OR 105
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:11.15

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time2m 29.89s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
05-06-2026 Epsom | 12f | Good To Soft | Class 1 2 3/1 105 -- -- 3.8 -- GREY - no timing read
13-05-2026 York | 1m2½f | Good | Class 1 1 6/4F 105 111 98 0 2:11.15 GOLD - faster than par
10-10-2025 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 1 4 9/1 -- 99 88 0.3 1:36.36 GOLD - faster than par
05-09-2025 Haydock | 1m | Good | Class 3 1 4/5F -- 83 66 0 1:41.94 GOLD - faster than par
08-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 100/30 -- 66 27 4.2 1:42.73 GOLD - faster than par
27-04-2024 Auteuil (FR) | -- | Very Soft | -- -- 87/1 -- -- -- -- -- GREY - no timing read
Handicap Near ceiling

+0lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 116.8 and winning TS par is around 98.3. Runner versus par: rating edge +13.2. Benchmark fit: 4.2.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Earth Shot Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 44.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Johanna Walsh Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 32.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Maldives Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 29.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Venetia Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 28.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Brilliant Star Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 17.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dark Lucinda Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Golden Orbit Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 14.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Composing Front-runner
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Gilded Prize Front-runner
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 7.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lady Roisia Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Warriors Whisper Prominent
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

3:50 | Yarmouth

3:50 | Yarmouth | 8f

Class 4 | Good To Firm | quinnbet.com Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 85 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR801 rated runner | Top OR 80: Celestra
Winning Time Par2m 01.52s10 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 5.8) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; 1m6f - Stands' side; 1m2f - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Celestra leads the contextual model at 43.8
  • Clearer top profile: +38.8 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 01.52s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 4 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent1
Midfield3
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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CelestraRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 3-2-2-2 9-2 9 OR 80 82 +2lb 8/13 0 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 64% 59% 4/6 92 D Workable +9 PRICE DEPENDENT
TopathemorningRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 10.2 5-6 9-2 3 OR -- 74 -- 11/2 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 46% 49% 1/6 96 E Developing WATCH ONLY
ElshieRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 5.2 7-6 9-2 8 OR -- 74 -- 14/1 -- Freshened up Up in trip Solid field 46% 47% 2/6 96 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
SummersonRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 -- 9-2 2 OR -- -- -- 5/2 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 48% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Blue HillRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 -- 9-2 1 OR -- -- -- 10/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 48% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
La MariposaRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 2.0 8-5 9-2 4 OR -- 60 -- -- -- Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 50% 50% 0/6 78 -- Developing CAUTION PROFILE
EsdaileRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -0.5 10 9-2 6 OR -- 45 -- 33/1 -- Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 48% 49% 0/6 -- E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Miss GuinevereRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style -2.9 5-9 9-2 7 OR -- 66 -- 14/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 44% 37% 0/6 96 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Delevingne DreamRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile -8.3 11-11 9-2 5 OR -- 66 -- 50/1 -- Long absence Same trip Solid field 42% 39% 1/6 86 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Celestra

Celestra profiles as a front-runner with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 4/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Topathemorning

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Celestra Front-end controller
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR82
Speed92
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+2lb near mark
FFR 82 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
92 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.8% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score43.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR82+2lb vs OR
SpeedScore92Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWorkable mark+9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +2.8
Variance Very steady 3.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.8
Ceiling Par capable 2.8 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 11-05-2026
2 Beverley Solid effort 15-04-2026
2 Newmarket (July) Solid effort 18-07-2025
2 Haydock Finished well 04-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

12
11-05-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Hot Silk (GB), Six Blue (GB), Musical Accord (GB) | Wild Violet (FR) won next/later

15-04-2026 | Beverley Finished 2

Beat: Lovers Leap (IRE), Sierra Sue (IRE), Yorkies Dream (GB) | Lillie Margot (GB) won next/later, Lovers Leap (IRE) won next/later | Wadacre Geisha (GB) placed next/later

18-07-2025 | Newmarket (July) Finished 2

Beat: Quadrillion (GB), Stay Sharp (GB), Sporty Socks (GB) | Stay Sharp (GB) won next/later | Quadrillion (GB) placed next/later, Sporty Socks (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Pace shape Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/4
Best similar rating79
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 82
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 75
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 79
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 74
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 35%
Mark room 79%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +9lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +9lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 80 | FFR 82 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +9
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Thady Gosden
Jockey Benoit De La Sayette
Age 3
Draw 9
OR 80
Avg OR 80
OR vs Field 0
Rating 82
TS 56
Form 22-23
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m½f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m½f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-04-2026 Beverley Good To Soft 2 1:47.14 107.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 64% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 38 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 64%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP30/100F OwnerPrince A A Faisal
Sire Kingman Dam Savaanah Damsire Olden Times
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Led - faced challenge over 2f out - headed inside final furlong - soon ridden and rallied - kept on and just held(op 8/15 tchd 4/9)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-05-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 3 1.5 Run faded
15-04-2026 Beverley 2 0.2 Fast finish
18-07-2025 Newmarket (July) 2 0.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
04-07-2025 | Haydock
Rating 75 OR Unrated
18-07-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 79 OR Unrated
15-04-2026 | Beverley
Rating 82 OR Unrated
11-05-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 74 OR 81
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:47.14

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-05-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m1½f | Standard | Class 3 3 30/100F 81 74 11 1.5 2:02.35 GREEN - within 1% of par
15-04-2026 Beverley | 1m½f | Good To Soft | Class 4 2 1/2F -- 82 56 0.2 1:47.13 GOLD - faster than par
18-07-2025 Newmarket (July) | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 2 15/8 -- 79 45 0.2 1:26.48 GOLD - faster than par
04-07-2025 Haydock | 7f | Good | Class 3 2 9/2 -- 75 14 1.5 1:30.72 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Runner versus par: rating edge -7.1 | TS edge +1.2. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Topathemorning Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Elshie Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 5.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Summerson Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Blue Hill Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

La Mariposa Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Esdaile Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Miss Guinevere Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Delevingne Dream Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

4:00 | Ripon

4:00 | Ripon | 8f

Class 3 | Good | Masons Gin 'Who Dares, Gins' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 87 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR761 rated runner | Top OR 76: Eklleem
Winning Time Par1m 40.06s39 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3)Stalls Straight - Stands' side; Round - Inside; 1m4f - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Eklleem leads the contextual model at 31.9
  • Clearer top profile: +19.7 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 40.06s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 4 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent1
Midfield1
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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EklleemRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 51.0 4-2-6 9-3 3 OR 76 79 +3lb 11/10 0 Freshened up Up in trip Solid field 60% 53% 2/6 92 D Workable +9 CAUTION PROFILE
ErvaniRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 14.2 4-2 9-3 5 OR -- 82 -- evn -- Freshened up Same trip Solid field 47% 50% 3/6 82 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Stolen KissesRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.2 5 9-8 1 OR -- 48 -- 40/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 48% 50% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Jetpack JimmyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-3 4 OR -- -- -- 25/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Ziggy BayRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.5 9-6 8-12 2 OR -- 36 -- 100/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 51% 0/6 90 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Carnival Of LightRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.0 -- 9-8 6 OR -- -- -- 9/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 47% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Ceinture d'OrionRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 0.2 6-4 8-12 7 OR -- 67 -- 17/2 -- Standard rest Big drop back Solid field 45% 45% 2/6 84 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Eklleem

Eklleem profiles as a front-runner with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 2/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Ervani

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Eklleem Front-end controller
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 51.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR79
Speed92
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+3lb near mark
FFR 79 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
92 Par 100
FSP%faded late
97.3% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score31.9raw
Agreement2/6
FFR79+3lb vs OR
SpeedScore92Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +2.2
Variance Very steady 4.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6
Ceiling Par capable 2 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 01-05-2026
2 Newmarket Solid effort 22-10-2025
6 Leicester Run faded 22-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

24
01-05-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Marhayb (GB), Eljowhary (GB), Thunder Rush (GB) | Grasmere Boy (GB) won next/later | Marhayb (GB) placed next/later, Record Day (GB) placed next/later

22-10-2025 | Newmarket Finished 2

Beat: Seeway (FR), Savvy Disko (IRE), Battosai (IRE) | Rockafeller Skank (IRE) won next/later, Savvy Disko (IRE) won next/later | Battosai (IRE) placed next/later, Major Neigh Sayer (IRE) placed next/later

22-09-2025 | Leicester Finished 6

Beat: Salkadan (GB), Hard Evidence (FR), Black Tango (IRE) | Go Rimbaud (GB) won next/later, Hard Evidence (FR) won next/later | Big Shot Veto (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 60% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 32%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Pace shape Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/3
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 78
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 53% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 16%
Mark room 79%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +9lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +9lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 76 | FFR 79 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +9
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer William Haggas
Jockey Jason Hart
Age 3
Draw 3
OR 76
Avg OR 76
OR vs Field 0
Rating 69
TS 34
Form 62-4
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 7f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile3
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
22-09-2025 Leicester Good To Soft 6 1:27.12 87.1
22-10-2025 Newmarket Good 2 1:25.84 85.8
01-05-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 4 1:30.15 90.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 68% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 48 days Standard layoff
Micro score +1.0 trainer RTF positive at 68%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP10/11F OwnerSheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum
Sire No Nay Never Dam Stone Roses Damsire Rip Van Winkle
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Prominent - briefly led over 1f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 4/5)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
01-05-2026 Newcastle (AW) 4 1 Run faded
22-10-2025 Newmarket 2 3.2 Fast finish
22-09-2025 Leicester 6 0.1 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
22-09-2025 | Leicester
Rating 69 OR Unrated
22-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 78 OR Unrated
01-05-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 69 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:27.12 | 1:25.84 | 1:30.15

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 2 | 4

Approx winning time1m 40.06s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
01-05-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 4 10/11F -- 69 34 1 1:30.15 GOLD - faster than par
22-10-2025 Newmarket | 7f | Good | Class 4 2 11/4F -- 78 76 3.2 1:25.84 GOLD - faster than par
22-09-2025 Leicester | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 3 6 4/1 -- 69 48 0.1 1:27.23 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 74.9 and winning TS par is around 55.7. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.9 | TS edge -21.7. Benchmark fit: -3.6.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Ervani Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 14.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Stolen Kisses Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Jetpack Jimmy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ziggy Bay Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Carnival Of Light Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ceinture d'Orion Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 0.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

4:15 | Ascot

4:15 | Ascot | 20f

Class 1 | Good To Firm | Gold Cup (Group 1)

Race Confidence 50 WATCH ONLY
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR113.911 rated runners | Top OR 121: Trawlerman
Winning Time Par4m 18.02s3 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.9, Centre 8.7, Far side 8.5, Round 7.6) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; Round - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionWATCH ONLY
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos medium
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Sweet William leads the contextual model at 53.9
  • Winning-time par: 4m 18.02s
Race shape Balanced context race Hold-up profile in a projected pace-pressure race. 4 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders3
Prominent1
Midfield2
Hold-up1
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Sweet WilliamRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 72.0 2-1-2-1-2-3 9-4 9 OR 117 121 +4lb 16/1 +3.1 Standard rest Big step up Elite field 56% 71% 4/6 100 C Ceiling +4 BACKABLE PROFILE
ScandinaviaRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 49.8 1-1-1-1-1-5 9-3 3 OR 117 101 -16lb 7/4 +3.1 Freshened up Big step up Elite field 49% 48% 4/6 100 D Stiff -13 CAUTION PROFILE
Caballo De MarRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 49.0 1-2-2-7-1-1 9-4 11 OR 115 103 -12lb 9/1 +1.1 Standard rest Big step up Elite field 47% 51% 4/6 100 D Stiff -12 CAUTION PROFILE
Dubai FutureRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 48.9 1-4-8-6-6-3 9-4 5 OR 113 123 +10lb 50/1 -0.9 Standard rest Big step up Elite field 56% 62% 3/6 97 E Workable +10 WATCH ONLY
Al NayyirRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 41.0 2-3-1-3-2-3 9-4 1 OR 113 97 -16lb 80/1 -0.9 Freshened up Big step up Elite field 47% 55% 4/6 96 D Stiff -12 CAUTION PROFILE
TrawlermanRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 35.5 1-1-1-1-5-3 9-4 2 OR 121 101 -20lb 10/3 +7.1 Long absence Big step up Elite field 52% 56% 3/6 100 C Stiff -16 CAUTION PROFILE
Miss AlpillesRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed 29.4 2-3-1-1-2-10 9-1 7 OR 100 88 -12lb 100/1 -13.9 Standard rest Big step up Elite field 64% 52% 3/6 81 C Ceiling +1 CAUTION PROFILE
RahiebbRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 26.5 1-2-4-3-2-2 9-3 10 OR 116 100 -16lb 9/2 +2.1 Freshened up Big step up Elite field 48% 50% 2/6 97 D Stiff -14 CAUTION PROFILE
Al RiffaRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 24.0 3-6-4-7-1-1 9-4 8 OR 120 100 -20lb 7/1 +6.1 Standard rest Big step up Elite field 46% 37% 2/6 100 D Stiff -20 CAUTION PROFILE
CarmersRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 15.5 1-5-5-2-1-1 9-3 4 OR 112 82 -30lb 20/1 -1.9 Standard rest Big step up Elite field 46% 42% 1/6 98 D Stiff -9 CAUTION PROFILE
FurthurRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 9.0 6-4-11-6-1-5 9-3 6 OR 109 107 -2lb 66/1 -4.9 Standard rest Big step up Elite field 45% 45% 1/6 94 E Stiff -2 WATCH ONLY
Main Context Fit Sweet William

Sweet William profiles as a front-runner with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 4/6. Hold-up profile in a projected pace-pressure race

Main Danger Scandinavia

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Sweet William Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 72.0
BACKABLE PROFILE
Decision read High-conviction profile where several independent layers agree.
Status BACKABLE PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR121
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+4lb near mark
FFR 121 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
100 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.3% 100% par
Best reasonClean current evidence; stake only if price is acceptable Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score53.9raw
Agreement4/6
FFR121+4lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapNear ceiling+4lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 3.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.1
Ceiling Par capable 3.9 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Sandown Finished well 28-05-2026
1 Ascot Strong run 01-05-2026
2 Ascot Strong run 18-10-2025
1 Doncaster Troubled run 12-09-2025
2 York Run faded 22-08-2025
3 Goodwood Finished well 29-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

10
28-05-2026 | Sandown Finished 2

Beat: Lazy Griff (GER), Epic Poet (IRE), Paradias (GER)

01-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 1

Beat: Caballo De Mar (IRE), Miss Alpilles (GB), Dubai Future (GB) | Caballo De Mar (IRE) won next/later, Dubai Future (GB) won next/later | Miss Alpilles (GB) placed next/later, Tabletalk (IRE) placed next/later

18-10-2025 | Ascot Finished 2

Beat: Al Qareem (IRE), Stay True (IRE), Saratoga (IRE) | Al Qareem (IRE) won next/later, Saratoga (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 65%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating119
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 8 4W / 8P Peak rating 118
Good 5 1W / 5P Peak rating 120
Fast 7 2W / 6P Peak rating 119
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 87
Placement evidence 71% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 86%
Mark room 64%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +4lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +4lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 117 | FFR 121 | Best FFR 121 | FFR edge +4
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Thady Gosden
Jockey Robert Havlin
Age 7
Draw 9
OR 117
Avg OR 113.9
OR vs Field +3.1
Rating 119
TS 110
Form 212-12
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.3% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 25.65s recorded | FSP 100.3%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 2m2f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance2m2f
Runs at profile3
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-09-2023 Doncaster Soft 2 4:5.86 245.9
13-09-2024 Doncaster Good To Soft 1 3:54.17 234.2
12-09-2025 Doncaster Good To Soft 1 3:52.24 232.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 68% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 21 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 trainer RTF positive at 68%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: v; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP8/13F OwnerNormandie Stud Ltd
Sire Sea The Stars Dam Gale Force Damsire Shirocco
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this courseBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Slowly into stride - soon midfield - headway halfway - pushed along and went second over 2f out - led narrowly and ridden 1f out - kept on and just did enough(op 4/5 tchd 10/11)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
28-05-2026 Sandown 2 0.3 Fast finish
01-05-2026 Ascot 1 0 Fast finish
18-10-2025 Ascot 2 1.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 5 runs with an official OR.
29-07-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 114 OR 116
22-08-2025 | York
Rating 116 OR 115
12-09-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 117 OR 115
18-10-2025 | Ascot
Rating 120 OR 115
01-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 119 OR 117
28-05-2026 | Sandown
Rating -- OR 117
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 4:5.86 | 3:54.17 | 3:52.24

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1 | 1

Approx winning time4m 18.02s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
28-05-2026 Sandown | 16f | Good | Class 1 2 8/13F 117 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
01-05-2026 Ascot | 2m | Good To Firm | Class 1 1 5/6F 117 119 110 0 3:24.97 GOLD - faster than par
18-10-2025 Ascot | 2m | Good | Class 1 2 5/2 115 120 121 1.5 3:22.54 GOLD - faster than par
12-09-2025 Doncaster | 2m2f | Good To Soft | Class 1 1 10/11F 115 117 106 0 3:52.24 GOLD - faster than par
22-08-2025 York | 2m½f | Good To Firm | Class 1 2 3/1 115 116 86 1.2 3:29.29 GOLD - faster than par
29-07-2025 Goodwood | 2m | Good | Class 1 3 4/1 116 114 92 2.5 3:28.61 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+4lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 121.3 and winning TS par is around 100.7. Runner versus par: rating edge +10.7 | TS edge +9.3. Benchmark fit: 3.1.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Scandinavia Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 49.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR101
Speed100
ConditionsCaution
PlacementCaution
FFR vs OR-16lb below mark
FFR 101 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
100 Par 100
FSP%even finish
101.9% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score52.2raw
Agreement4/6
FFR101-16lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.8
Variance Very steady 4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.2
Ceiling Par capable 5.8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Leopardstown Strong run 15-05-2026
1 Navan Finished well 25-04-2026
1 Doncaster Strong run 13-09-2025
1 Goodwood Troubled run 29-07-2025
1 Newmarket (July) Strong run 10-07-2025
5 Ascot Strong run 18-06-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 1 subsequent placer(s)

3
15-05-2026 | Leopardstown Finished 1

Beat: Happy Pharoah (IRE), Le Destrier (IRE), Leinster (IRE)

25-04-2026 | Navan Finished 1

Beat: Dallas Star (FR), Emit (IRE), Leinster (IRE) | Carmers (IRE) won next/later | Layfayette (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 49% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 44%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Pace shape Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating117
Best ground bandTesting
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 2W / 3P Peak rating 119
Good 5 3W / 4P Peak rating 119
Fast 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 117
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 48% Intent unclear
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 35%
Mark room 13%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -13lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 117 | FFR 101 | Best FFR 104 | FFR edge -13
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer A P O'Brien
Jockey Ryan Moore
Age 4
Draw 3
OR 117
Avg OR 113.9
OR vs Field +3.1
Rating 118
TS 55
Form 111-11
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 101.9% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 24.95s recorded | FSP 101.9%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 2m
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
29-07-2025 Goodwood Good 1 3:27.96 208
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 34 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP2/9F OwnerMichael Tabor & Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier
Sire Justify Dam Fabulous Damsire Galileo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In touch with leaders - disputing third 6f out - pushed along 2f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - ran on well - comfortably(op Evens tchd 6/5)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
15-05-2026 Leopardstown 1 0 Fast finish
25-04-2026 Navan 1 0 Fast finish
13-09-2025 Doncaster 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 5 of 6 runs with an official OR.
18-06-2025 | Ascot
Rating 108 OR 90
10-07-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 117 OR 103
29-07-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 119 OR 114
13-09-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 119 OR 117
25-04-2026 | Navan
Rating 118 OR 117
15-05-2026 | Leopardstown
Rating 115 OR 117
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 3:27.96

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time4m 18.02s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
15-05-2026 Leopardstown | 1m6f | Good | Class 1 1 2/9F 117 115 73 0 3:00.93 GOLD - faster than par
25-04-2026 Navan | 1m6f | Good To Yielding | Class 1 1 11/10F 117 118 55 0 3:03.28 GOLD - faster than par
13-09-2025 Doncaster | 1m6½f | Soft | Class 1 1 2/1F 117 119 116 0 3:4.63 GOLD - faster than par
29-07-2025 Goodwood | 2m | Good | Class 1 1 4/1 114 119 95 0 3:27.96 GOLD - faster than par
10-07-2025 Newmarket (July) | 1m5f | Good To Firm | Class 1 1 11/8F 103 117 105 0 2:42.30 GOLD - faster than par
18-06-2025 Ascot | 1m6f | Good To Firm | Class 1 5 16/1 90 108 100 0.3 2:59.83 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 121.3 and winning TS par is around 100.7. Runner versus par: rating edge -4.3 | TS edge -45.7. Benchmark fit: -1.1.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Caballo De Mar Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 49.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR103
Speed100
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-12lb below mark
FFR 103 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
100 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
111.4% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score52.3raw
Agreement4/6
FFR103-12lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-12lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 7.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 0 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Longchamp Strong run 21-05-2026
2 Ascot Solid effort 01-05-2026
2 Meydan Solid effort 28-03-2026
7 Saint-Cloud Run faded 26-10-2025
1 Longchamp (FR) Strong run 04-10-2025
1 Dortmund (GER) Finished well 21-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

11
21-05-2026 | Longchamp Finished 1

Beat: Santorini Star (IRE), Al Riffa (FR), Asmarani (IRE) | Rashford (FR) placed next/later

01-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 2

Beat: Miss Alpilles (GB), Dubai Future (GB), Tabletalk (IRE) | Dubai Future (GB) won next/later | Miss Alpilles (GB) placed next/later, Sweet William (IRE) placed next/later

28-03-2026 | Meydan Finished 2

Beat: Al Nayyir (GB), Sons And Lovers (GB), Epic Poet (IRE) | Dubai Future (GB) won next/later | Al Nayyir (GB) placed next/later, Al Riffa (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 47% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 55%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating118
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 3W / 3P Peak rating 117
Good 5 2W / 4P Peak rating 115
Fast 6 0W / 4P Peak rating 118
All-weather 4 3W / 4P Peak rating 91
Placement evidence 51% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 41%
Mark room 16%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -12lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -12lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 115 | FFR 103 | Best FFR 103 | FFR edge -12
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer George Scott
Jockey Oisin Murphy
Age 5
Draw 11
OR 115
Avg OR 113.9
OR vs Field +1.1
Rating 118
TS 112
Form 17-221
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 111.4% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 24.78s recorded | FSP 111.4%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 2m2½f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance2m2½f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
09-05-2025 Chester Good 2 4:5.93 245.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 68% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 28 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 68%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP18/1 OwnerVictorious Forever
Sire Phoenix Of Spain Dam Oberyn Damsire Holy Roman Emperor
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent - led 3f out - headed 1f out - kept on well and just held(op 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
21-05-2026 Longchamp 1 0 Fast finish
01-05-2026 Ascot 2 0.1 Fast finish
28-03-2026 Meydan 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 3 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
21-09-2025 | Dortmund (GER)
Rating 113 OR Unrated
04-10-2025 | Longchamp (FR)
Rating 117 OR Unrated
26-10-2025 | Saint-Cloud
Rating 106 OR Unrated
28-03-2026 | Meydan
Rating 115 OR 112
01-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 118 OR 114
21-05-2026 | Longchamp
Rating 117 OR 115
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 4:5.93

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time4m 18.02s
Last win at trip4:34.74 | Longchamp (FR) | 04-10-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +16.72s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
21-05-2026 Longchamp | 1m7½f | Soft | Class 1 1 18/1 115 117 92 0 3:21.11 GOLD - faster than par
01-05-2026 Ascot | 2m | Good To Firm | Class 1 2 4/1 114 118 112 0.1 3:24.99 GOLD - faster than par
28-03-2026 Meydan | 2m | Good | Class 1 2 15/2 112 115 90 0.5 3:22.44 GOLD - faster than par
26-10-2025 Saint-Cloud | 1m7½f | Very Soft | Class 1 7 16/5 -- 106 85 5.5 3:25.63 GOLD - faster than par
04-10-2025 Longchamp (FR) | 2m4f | Very Soft | -- 1 47/10 -- 117 58 0 4:34.74 GREY - below benchmark
21-09-2025 Dortmund (GER) | 1m6f | Good To Soft | -- 1 37/10 -- 113 -- 0 3:6.01 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-12lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 121.3 and winning TS par is around 100.7. Runner versus par: rating edge -7.3 | TS edge +11.3. Benchmark fit: 1.1.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Dubai Future Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 48.9
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement3/6
FFR123
Speed97
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+10lb ahead of mark
FFR 123 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.7% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score32.5raw
Agreement3/6
FFR123+10lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapWorkable mark+10lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.9
Variance Very steady 3.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.4
Ceiling Par capable 0.5 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Sandown Strong run 28-05-2026
4 Ascot Troubled run 01-05-2026
8 Meydan Run faded 28-03-2026
6 York Run faded 22-08-2025
6 Goodwood Competitive 29-07-2025
3 Ascot Solid effort 19-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

10
28-05-2026 | Sandown Finished 1

Beat: Sweet William (IRE), Lazy Griff (GER), Epic Poet (IRE)

01-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 4

Beat: Tabletalk (IRE), Deira Mile (IRE), Ascending (IRE) | Caballo De Mar (IRE) won next/later | Miss Alpilles (GB) placed next/later, Sweet William (IRE) placed next/later

28-03-2026 | Meydan Finished 8

Beat: Ruling Dynasty (GB), Sunway (FR) | Caballo De Mar (IRE) won next/later | Al Nayyir (GB) placed next/later, Al Riffa (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 53%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating109
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 81
Good 7 3W / 3P Peak rating 118
Fast 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 109
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 65%
Mark room 82%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +10lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +10lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +10lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 113 | FFR 123 | Best FFR 123 | FFR edge +10
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey David Probert
Age 10
Draw 5
OR 113
Avg OR 113.9
OR vs Field -0.9
Rating 101
TS 95
Form 66-841
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 2m4f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance2m4f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
19-06-2025 Ascot Good To Firm 3 4:17.35 257.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF -- Trainer recent-form data unavailable
Freshness 21 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP28/1 OwnerGodolphin
Sire Dubawi Dam Anjaz Damsire Street Cry
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this course
Race comment

Awkward start - in rear - slightly hampered then headway over 2f out - went third over 1f out - soon outpaced - lost third final strides(op 22/1 tchd 20/1 and tchd 28/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
28-05-2026 Sandown 1 0 Fast finish
01-05-2026 Ascot 4 0.3 Neutral finish
28-03-2026 Meydan 8 3.8 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 5 runs with an official OR.
19-06-2025 | Ascot
Rating 109 OR 116
29-07-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 108 OR 116
22-08-2025 | York
Rating 103 OR 114
28-03-2026 | Meydan
Rating 99 OR 113
01-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 101 OR 110
28-05-2026 | Sandown
Rating -- OR 109
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 4:17.35

Last 3 trip positions: 3

Approx winning time4m 18.02s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
28-05-2026 Sandown | 16f | Good | Class 1 1 28/1 109 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
01-05-2026 Ascot | 2m | Good To Firm | Class 1 4 25/1 110 101 95 0.3 3:26.39 GOLD - faster than par
28-03-2026 Meydan | 2m | Good | Class 1 8 20/1 113 99 73 3.8 3:24.90 GOLD - faster than par
22-08-2025 York | 2m½f | Good To Firm | Class 1 6 16/1 114 103 74 0.1 3:31.36 GOLD - faster than par
29-07-2025 Goodwood | 2m | Good | Class 1 6 28/1 116 108 87 0.1 3:29.48 GOLD - faster than par
19-06-2025 Ascot | 2m4f | Good To Firm | Class 1 3 28/1 116 109 98 7 4:17.82 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+10lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 121.3 and winning TS par is around 100.7. Runner versus par: rating edge +5.7 | TS edge -5.7. Benchmark fit: 0.7.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Al Nayyir Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 41.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR97
Speed96
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-16lb below mark
FFR 97 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.7% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score40.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR97-16lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-12lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 1.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.1
Ceiling Par capable 0 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 York Solid effort 15-05-2026
3 Meydan Run faded 28-03-2026
1 Meydan Strong run 20-02-2026
3 York Finished well 22-08-2025
2 Sandown Solid effort 04-07-2025
3 Sandown Run faded 29-05-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

6
15-05-2026 | York Finished 2

Beat: Epic Poet (IRE), Furthur (IRE), Tarriance (GB)

28-03-2026 | Meydan Finished 3

Beat: Sons And Lovers (GB), Epic Poet (IRE), Al Riffa (FR) | Caballo De Mar (IRE) won next/later, Dubai Future (GB) won next/later | Al Riffa (FR) placed next/later, Epic Poet (IRE) placed next/later

20-02-2026 | Meydan Finished 1

Beat: Sunway (FR), By The Book (IRE), Kihavah (GB)

Today's conditions match 47% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 57%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating111
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 8 3W / 4P Peak rating 115
Good 8 1W / 5P Peak rating 116
Fast 4 0W / 2P Peak rating 113
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 55% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 69%
Mark room 16%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -12lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -12lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 113 | FFR 97 | Best FFR 101 | FFR edge -12
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tom Clover
Jockey James Doyle
Age 8
Draw 1
OR 113
Avg OR 113.9
OR vs Field -0.9
Rating 112
TS 101
Form 23-132
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 104.7% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 2m½f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance2m½f
Runs at profile2
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
23-08-2024 York Good 2 3:28.56 208.6
22-08-2025 York Good To Firm 3 3:29.96 210
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 42% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 34 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 2/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/1 OwnerElbashir Salem AB Elhrari
Sire Dubawi Dam Bright Beacon Damsire Manduro
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent behind clear leader - headway and briefly went second over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
15-05-2026 York 2 2.2 Fast finish
28-03-2026 Meydan 3 3.2 Fast finish
20-02-2026 Meydan 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
29-05-2025 | Sandown
Rating 108 OR 113
04-07-2025 | Sandown
Rating 111 OR 111
22-08-2025 | York
Rating 111 OR 111
20-02-2026 | Meydan
Rating 113 OR 111
28-03-2026 | Meydan
Rating 112 OR 114
15-05-2026 | York
Rating 112 OR 113
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 3:28.56 | 3:29.96

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 3

Approx winning time4m 18.02s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
15-05-2026 York | 1m6f | Good | Class 1 2 11/1 113 112 76 2.2 3:01.07 GOLD - faster than par
28-03-2026 Meydan | 2m | Good | Class 1 3 10/1 114 112 86 3.2 3:22.99 GOLD - faster than par
20-02-2026 Meydan | 1m6f | Good | Class 1 1 15/2 111 113 101 0 2:56.38 GOLD - faster than par
22-08-2025 York | 2m½f | Good To Firm | Class 1 3 16/1 111 111 81 4.2 3:30.14 GOLD - faster than par
04-07-2025 Sandown | 2m | Good To Firm | Class 1 2 7/2 111 111 16 0.1 3:41.60 GOLD - faster than par
29-05-2025 Sandown | 2m | Good | Class 1 3 11/2 113 108 61 4.8 3:38.98 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-12lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 121.3 and winning TS par is around 100.7. Runner versus par: rating edge +5.7 | TS edge +0.3. Benchmark fit: 1.4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Trawlerman Context profile
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 35.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Miss Alpilles Late pressure closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 29.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Rahiebb Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 26.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Al Riffa Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 24.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Carmers Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 15.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Furthur Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

4:25 | Yarmouth

4:25 | Yarmouth | 8f

Class 4 | Good To Firm | Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap

Race Confidence 72 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR76.810 rated runners | Top OR 81: Rogue Encore
Winning Time Par2m 01.52s10 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 5.8) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; 1m6f - Stands' side; 1m2f - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-80
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Knights Gold leads the contextual model at 38.3
  • Winning-time par: 2m 01.52s
Race shape Controlled tactical race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 2 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent1
Midfield3
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Knights GoldRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 3-9-5-10-9-7 9-9 1 OR 80 71 -9lb 4/1 +3.2 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 64% 66% 4/6 103 A Workable +10 CAUTION PROFILE
Rogue EncoreRun style: ProminentFinish: Sustained speed 67.6 14-9-10-5-1-7 9-10 7 OR 81 78 -3lb 17/2 +4.2 Layoff check Same trip Solid field 71% 73% 5/6 97 A Well in +13 PRICE DEPENDENT
Sea SuiteRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 62.0 1-4-3-4-1-9 9-6 10 OR 77 86 +9lb 11/4 +0.2 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 58% 64% 3/6 107 E Well in +13 PRICE DEPENDENT
HitchedRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 57.0 6-13-4-4-5-1 9-5 6 OR 76 59 -17lb 20/1 -0.8 Standard rest Big drop back Solid field 74% 76% 5/6 96 A Well in +16 CAUTION PROFILE
Cancan In The RainRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 50.1 4-1-1-2-8-8 9-7 2 OR 78 82 +4lb 14/1 +1.2 Long absence Up in trip Solid field 63% 70% 2/6 98 A+ Workable +9 WATCH ONLY
InfluentialRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 48.2 1-2-7-2-5-5 9-7 8 OR 78 84 +6lb 9/4 +1.2 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 57% 62% 1/6 99 B Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Red Hat EagleRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 42.5 5-7-5-3-5-4 9-4 9 OR 75 61 -14lb 10/1 -1.8 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 70% 69% 5/6 93 A Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
KalamundaRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 29.5 6-4-4-10-4-5 9-0 5 OR 71 82 +11lb 14/1 -5.8 Long absence Same trip Solid field 66% 73% 3/6 95 A Well in +18 WATCH ONLY
Gorgeous Mr GeorgeRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 17.0 8-8-8-8-2-2 9-4 4 OR 75 45 -30lb 9/1 -1.8 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 66% 68% 3/6 104 B Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
ShihokuRun style: CloserFinish: Limited sectional edge 4.6 13-7-4-6-2-8 9-6 3 OR 77 58 -19lb 14/1 +0.2 Layoff check Big drop back Solid field 57% 57% 2/6 81 E Well in +12 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Knights Gold

Knights Gold profiles as a midfield with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A. Model alignment is 4/6. Draw data is a slight caution. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Rogue Encore

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Knights Gold Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR71
Speed103
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-9lb below mark
FFR 71 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
103 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting profile, but FFR sits below today's mark Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score38.3raw
Agreement4/6
FFR71-9lb vs OR
SpeedScore103Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWorkable mark+10lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 8.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.6
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 24 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Newbury Solid effort 01-06-2026
9 Newmarket Finished well 16-05-2026
5 Epsom Competitive 28-04-2026
10 Doncaster Competitive 29-03-2026
9 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 07-03-2026
7 Goodwood Finished well 12-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

7
01-06-2026 | Newbury Finished 3

Beat: Classic Encounter (IRE), Herculeus (GB), Electrifarhh (GB)

16-05-2026 | Newmarket Finished 9

Beat: Wheres Freddy (IRE), Phone Tag (GB), Indian Spirit (IRE) | Twisting Physics (GB) placed next/later

28-04-2026 | Epsom Finished 5

Beat: Kaleido (GB), Tribal Rhythm (GB), Tronido (GB) | Sweet Reward (IRE) won next/later, Tronido (GB) won next/later | Amused (IRE) placed next/later, Organ (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 62%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 1W / 2P Peak rating 90
Good 6 0W / 1P Peak rating 87
Fast 5 2W / 4P Peak rating 88
All-weather 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 51%
Mark room 82%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 34%
Proven trip profile (A)9 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +10lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +10lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +10lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 80 | FFR 71 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +10
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole
Jockey Jack Doughty
Age 4
Draw 1
OR 80
Avg OR 76.8
OR vs Field +3.2
Rating 82
TS 72
Form -90593
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 9 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 104.0% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 24.37s recorded | FSP 104.0%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile9
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
12-10-2025 Goodwood Good 7 1:39.28 99.3
16-05-2026 Newmarket Good 9 1:37.66 97.7
01-06-2026 Newbury Good To Firm 3 1:37.10 97.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 54% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 17 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/1 OwnerA J Spratt
Sire Dark Angel Dam Samira Gold Damsire Gold Away
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In rear - switched right and some headway over 1f out - never on terms(op 17/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
01-06-2026 Newbury 3 1.8 Neutral finish
16-05-2026 Newmarket 9 1.5 Fast finish
28-04-2026 Epsom 5 1.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 5 runs with an official OR.
12-10-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 87 OR 86
07-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 80 OR 86
29-03-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 73 OR 85
28-04-2026 | Epsom
Rating 82 OR 84
16-05-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 74 OR 83
01-06-2026 | Newbury
Rating -- OR 81
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:39.28 | 1:37.66 | 1:37.10

Last 3 trip positions: 7 | 9 | 3

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at trip1:41.40 | Ascot | 11-07-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -20.12s | OR 80 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
01-06-2026 Newbury | 8f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 9/1 81 -- -- 1.8 -- GREY - no timing read
16-05-2026 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 4 9 20/1 83 74 66 1.5 1:37.66 GOLD - faster than par
28-04-2026 Epsom | 1m½f | Good | Class 4 5 9/1 84 82 72 1.8 1:46.72 GOLD - faster than par
29-03-2026 Doncaster | 1m2f | Good To Soft | Class 3 10 11/1 85 73 50 1.8 2:16.09 GREY - below benchmark
07-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 2 9 50/1 86 80 59 2.5 1:47.50 GOLD - faster than par
12-10-2025 Goodwood | 1m | Good | Class 2 7 18/1 86 87 56 0.5 1:39.39 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+10lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Runner versus par: rating edge -7.1 | TS edge +17.2. Benchmark fit: 2.5.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Rogue Encore Prominent
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 67.6
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR78
Speed97
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-3lb near mark
FFR 78 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.4% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score32.5raw
Agreement5/6
FFR78-3lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +3.6
Variance Very steady 3.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.5
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.9 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
14 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 03-04-2026
9 Newcastle (AW) Troubled run 27-03-2026
10 Southwell (AW) Run faded 20-02-2026
5 Newcastle (AW) Competitive 16-01-2026
1 Newcastle (AW) Strong run 28-09-2025
7 Ripon Run faded 25-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

16
03-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 14

Shafdar (IRE) won next/later | Blue Rc (IRE) placed next/later, Storm Star (GB) placed next/later

27-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Degale (GB), Brewing (GB), Maestro Bernstein (IRE) | Degale (GB) placed next/later, Flying Fletcher (GB) placed next/later

20-02-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 10

Beat: Unassuming (FR), Londoner (IRE) | Angel Hunter (GB) won next/later, Londoner (IRE) won next/later | Dingle (IRE) placed next/later, Dosman (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 71% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 62%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 66
Good 4 0W / 2P Peak rating 86
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 75
All-weather 14 3W / 4P Peak rating 93
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 67%
Mark room 91%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A)17 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +13lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +13lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 81 | FFR 78 | Best FFR 94 | FFR edge +13
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam
Jockey Benoit De La Sayette
Age 5
Draw 7
OR 81
Avg OR 76.8
OR vs Field +4.2
Rating 70
TS 62
Form 1-5090
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 106.4% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 25.75s recorded | FSP 106.4%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile17
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
20-02-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 10 1:41.42 101.4
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 9 1:41.13 101.1
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 14 1:42.00 102
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 67% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 76 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 trainer RTF positive at 67%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP50/1 OwnerThe Rogues Gallery
Sire Kodiac Dam Encore L'Amour Damsire Azamour
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent - weakened from over 2f out(op 33/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) 14 3 Run faded
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) 9 0.8 Run faded
20-02-2026 Southwell (AW) 10 1 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
25-08-2025 | Ripon
Rating 75 OR 85
28-09-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 93 OR 84
16-01-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 90 OR 87
20-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 80 OR 86
27-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 78 OR 85
03-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 70 OR 85
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip17 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:41.42 | 1:41.13 | 1:42.00

Last 3 trip positions: 10 | 9 | 14

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at trip1:39.94 | Newcastle (AW) | 28-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -21.58s | OR 84 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 14 50/1 85 70 25 3 1:42.00 GOLD - faster than par
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 9 4/1 85 78 62 0.8 1:41.13 GOLD - faster than par
20-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 3 10 16/1 86 80 57 1 1:41.17 GOLD - faster than par
16-01-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 5 18/1 87 90 52 0.3 1:39.40 GOLD - faster than par
28-09-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 1 11/2 84 93 82 0 1:39.94 GOLD - faster than par
25-08-2025 Ripon | 1m | Good | Class 2 7 8/1 85 75 49 1.5 1:38.84 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +0.9 | TS edge +7.2. Benchmark fit: 2.5.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sea Suite Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 62.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR86
Speed107
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+9lb ahead of mark
FFR 86 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
107 Par 100
FSP%faded late
93% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score50.3raw
Agreement3/6
FFR86+9lb vs OR
SpeedScore107Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI EMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 7.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6
Ceiling Ceiling edge 7 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Yarmouth Strong run 28-05-2026
4 Kempton (AW) Finished well 20-05-2026
3 Wetherby Strong run 26-04-2026
4 Musselburgh Run faded 12-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 21-03-2026
9 Newmarket Run faded 31-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

9
28-05-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 1

Beat: Zubaru (GB), Stenmark (IRE), Berry Clever (GB)

20-05-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Farasi Lane (IRE), Rock Iguana (IRE), Melvin Udall (IRE)

26-04-2026 | Wetherby Finished 3

Beat: Zarathos (IRE), Harswell Ruby (IRE), Lever Up (GB) | Dovey Moon (GB) won next/later, Zarathos (IRE) won next/later | Dark Rosa (IRE) placed next/later, Hale End (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 62%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating82
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 80
Good 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 79
Fast 3 1W / 2P Peak rating 82
All-weather 5 1W / 2P Peak rating 84
Placement evidence 64% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 30%
Class fit 55%
Mark room 91%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
7 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +13lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +13lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 77 | FFR 86 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +13
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer James Owen
Jockey Mason Paetel(5)
Age 4
Draw 10
OR 77
Avg OR 76.8
OR vs Field +0.2
Rating 82
TS 74
Form -14341
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Limited sectional edge
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLimited sectional edge
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Limited sectional edge Limited
FSP% last 3 93.0% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 24.09s recorded | FSP 93.0%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile7
DEIE
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
14-10-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 10 1:38.01 98
31-10-2025 Newmarket Good 9 1:44.18 104.2
26-04-2026 Wetherby Good To Firm 3 1:38.07 98.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 21 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: v; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP3/1 OwnerHoughton And Lang
Sire Sea The Stars Dam Sweet Affection Damsire Exceed And Excel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this course
Race comment

In touch with leaders - headway and pressed leader over 1f out - led and faced challenge inside final furlong - headed towards finish(op 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
28-05-2026 Yarmouth 1 0 Fast finish
20-05-2026 Kempton (AW) 4 0.5 Fast finish
26-04-2026 Wetherby 3 0.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 5 runs with an official OR.
31-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 30 OR 73
21-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 84 OR 72
12-04-2026 | Musselburgh
Rating 79 OR 74
26-04-2026 | Wetherby
Rating 82 OR 74
20-05-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 82 OR 77
28-05-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating -- OR 75
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip7 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:38.01 | 1:44.18 | 1:38.07

Last 3 trip positions: 10 | 9 | 3

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
28-05-2026 Yarmouth | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 1 3/1 75 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
20-05-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 4 9/2 77 82 68 0.5 1:24.75 GOLD - faster than par
26-04-2026 Wetherby | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 5 3 9/2 74 82 74 0.2 1:38.07 GOLD - faster than par
12-04-2026 Musselburgh | 7f | Good | Class 4 4 7/2 74 79 46 0.8 1:28.71 GOLD - faster than par
21-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 9/2J 72 84 68 0 1:28.18 GOLD - faster than par
31-10-2025 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 5 9 16/1 73 30 12 1.5 1:44.18 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.1 | TS edge +19.2. Benchmark fit: 2.5.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Hitched Front-end controller
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 57.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR59
Speed96
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR-17lb below mark
FFR 59 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
109.2% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score34.1raw
Agreement5/6
FFR59-17lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+16lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Reliable 5.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 5.4 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Lingfield Competitive 30-05-2026
13 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 03-04-2026
4 Wolverhampton (AW) Troubled run 13-03-2026
4 Chelmsford (AW) Competitive 26-02-2026
5 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 12-02-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 30-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

8
30-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 6

Beat: Post Rider (GB) | Post Rider (GB) placed next/later

03-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 13

Beat: San Andreas (IRE) | Night Breeze (IRE) won next/later | Cristo (GB) placed next/later, Eupator (FR) placed next/later

13-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Tribal Wisdom (IRE), Star Studied (GB), Tasdeed (FR) | Bravo Zulu (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 74% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 67%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 54
Good 3 1W / 1P Peak rating 64
Fast 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 69
All-weather 33 7W / 17P Peak rating 85
Placement evidence 76% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 62%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (A)19 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +16lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +16lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +16lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 76 | FFR 59 | Best FFR 92 | FFR edge +16
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer David Simcock
Jockey Daniel Muscutt
Age 6
Draw 6
OR 76
Avg OR 76.8
OR vs Field -0.8
Rating 74
TS 76
Form 154406
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 27 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 109.2% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.35s recorded | FSP 109.2%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile19
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
31-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 2 1:40.24 100.2
12-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 5 1:37.60 97.6
26-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 4 1:39.93 99.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-1.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 11% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -1.2 trainer RTF cold at 11%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: h; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearh | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP28/1 OwnerThe Future
Sire Cotai Glory Dam Newlywed Damsire Authorized
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Always behind(tchd 16/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Lingfield 6 0.8 Neutral finish
03-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) 13 0.3 Neutral finish
13-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 4 2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 5 runs with an official OR.
30-01-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 85 OR 78
12-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 81 OR 80
26-02-2026 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 76 OR 80
13-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 77 OR 79
03-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 74 OR 79
30-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating -- OR 78
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip19 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:40.24 | 1:37.60 | 1:39.93

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 5 | 4

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at trip1:41.09 | Newcastle (AW) | 22-11-2024

Last distance win context: vs par -20.43s | OR 69 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Lingfield | 9f | Good To Firm | Class 4 6 28/1 78 -- -- 0.8 -- GREY - no timing read
03-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 3 13 18/1 79 74 21 0.3 2:06.95 GREY - below benchmark
13-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 4 14/1 79 77 45 2 1:49.39 GOLD - faster than par
26-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 4 10/1 80 76 37 1 1:39.93 GOLD - faster than par
12-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 5 6/1 80 81 47 0.1 1:37.60 GOLD - faster than par
30-01-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 1 7/1 78 85 76 0 1:47.77 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+16lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Runner versus par: rating edge -4.1 | TS edge +21.2. Benchmark fit: 3.4.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Cancan In The Rain Distance specialist
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 50.1
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: draw data is a negative nudge.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement2/6
FFR82
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+4lb near mark
FFR 82 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%faded late
97.7% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score31.0raw
Agreement2/6
FFR82+4lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI A+MEDIUM
HandicapWorkable mark+9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.1
Variance Very steady 2.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.3
Ceiling Par capable 5.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Ascot Run faded 03-10-2025
1 Newmarket (July) Finished well 15-08-2025
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 01-08-2025
2 Doncaster Run faded 04-07-2025
8 Yarmouth Competitive 29-05-2025
8 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 18-11-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 9 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

43
03-10-2025 | Ascot Finished 4

Beat: Stenmark (IRE), Dannick (GB), Ribenska (IRE) | Lady Mariko (GB) won next/later, Northcliff (IRE) won next/later | Amused (IRE) placed next/later, I Still Have Faith (GB) placed next/later

15-08-2025 | Newmarket (July) Finished 1

Beat: Just Typical (GB), Pink Lily (GB), Renesmee (GB) | Bella Bisbee (GB) won next/later, Dream Pirate (GB) won next/later | Artificer (IRE) placed next/later

01-08-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Berry Clever (GB), Lumenbourg (GB), Tea Sea (FR) | Berry Clever (GB) won next/later, Lumenbourg (GB) won next/later | Thursdays Child (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 63% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 96%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating84
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 79
Good 4 1W / 2P Peak rating 82
Fast 6 1W / 3P Peak rating 84
All-weather 7 1W / 3P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 70% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 79%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (A+)9 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +9lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +9lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 78 | FFR 82 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +9
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Charlie Johnston
Jockey Liam Wright(5)
Age 4
Draw 2
OR 78
Avg OR 76.8
OR vs Field +1.2
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 82114-
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 97.7% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 25.38s recorded | FSP 97.7%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile9
DEIA+
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
29-09-2024 Southwell (AW) Standard 2 1:40.78 100.8
04-07-2025 Doncaster Good To Firm 2 1:39.83 99.8
15-08-2025 Newmarket (July) Good To Firm 1 1:39.25 99.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 258 days Freshness caution
Micro score +0.0 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; freshness caution after 258 days off; headgear declared: v; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/1 OwnerIan Robinson
Sire Muhaarar Dam Sprinkling Damsire Quality Road
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this courseDistance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
03-10-2025 Ascot 4 1.5 Fast finish
15-08-2025 Newmarket (July) 1 0 Fast finish
01-08-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
18-11-2024 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 66 OR 72
29-05-2025 | Yarmouth
Rating 46 OR 71
04-07-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 75 OR 68
01-08-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 78 OR 69
15-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 84 OR 72
03-10-2025 | Ascot
Rating 79 OR 78
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:40.78 | 1:39.83 | 1:39.25

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 2 | 1

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at trip1:39.25 | Newmarket (July) | 15-08-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -22.27s | OR 72 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
03-10-2025 Ascot | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 4 4 11/1 78 79 69 1.5 1:31.29 GOLD - faster than par
15-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 5 1 85/40F 72 84 75 0 1:39.25 GOLD - faster than par
01-08-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 7/2 69 78 57 0 1:26.98 GOLD - faster than par
04-07-2025 Doncaster | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 5 2 15/2 68 75 43 1.5 1:39.88 GOLD - faster than par
29-05-2025 Yarmouth | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 5 8 25/1 71 46 41 2.8 1:27.82 GOLD - faster than par
18-11-2024 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 8 100/30F 72 66 57 0.8 1:28.38 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Influential Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 48.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement1/6
FFR84
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+6lb ahead of mark
FFR 84 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%faded late
89.3% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskRaw score needs more support
Model Score36.9raw
Agreement1/6
FFR84+6lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapWorkable mark+6lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Variable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Improving

confidence nudge +2.2
Variance Variable 10.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7
Ceiling Below requirement -0.6 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Kempton (AW) Strong run 20-05-2026
2 Kempton (AW) Run faded 04-05-2026
7 Nottingham Run faded 18-04-2026
2 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 04-10-2025
5 Pontefract Run faded 18-09-2025
5 Yarmouth Finished well 01-05-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

12
20-05-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Billy Mill (GB), Bubbles Wonky (IRE), Lady Manzor (GB) | Kaaranah (IRE) won next/later | Billy Mill (GB) placed next/later

04-05-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Bubbles Wonky (IRE), Grey Soul (IRE), Man Of Desert (GB) | Grey Soul (IRE) won next/later | Bubbles Wonky (IRE) placed next/later

18-04-2026 | Nottingham Finished 7

Beat: Eagle Day (IRE), Oceans Five (IRE) | Highland Olly (GB) won next/later, Kokanee (IRE) won next/later | Moonjid (GB) placed next/later, Pension Pot (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 57% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 33%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating73
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 40
Good 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 102
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 73
All-weather 3 1W / 3P Peak rating 83
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 11%
Mark room 70%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (B)5 similar-trip runs recordedTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +6lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +6lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 78 | FFR 84 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge +6
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Roger Varian
Jockey Robbie Downey
Age 4
Draw 8
OR 78
Avg OR 76.8
OR vs Field +1.2
Rating 66
TS 48
Form 52-721
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Limited sectional edge
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLimited sectional edge
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Limited sectional edge Limited
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 30.64s recorded | FSP 89.3%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile5
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
04-10-2025 Newcastle (AW) Standard 2 1:48.95 109
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 2 1:40.41 100.4
20-05-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 1 1:40.16 100.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 71% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 29 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF hot at 71%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP4/1 OwnerHighclere Thoroughbred Racing - Swift
Sire Wootton Bassett Dam Shenanigans Damsire Arcano
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent - pressed leader over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 6/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
20-05-2026 Kempton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) 2 1.2 Neutral finish
18-04-2026 Nottingham 7 4.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 3 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
01-05-2025 | Yarmouth
Rating 73 OR Unrated
18-09-2025 | Pontefract
Rating 40 OR Unrated
04-10-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 79 OR Unrated
18-04-2026 | Nottingham
Rating 66 OR 75
04-05-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 79 OR 74
20-05-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 83 OR 75
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:48.95 | 1:40.41 | 1:40.16

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 2 | 1

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at trip1:40.16 | Kempton (AW) | 20-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -21.36s | OR 75 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
20-05-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 5 1 4/1 75 83 46 0 1:40.16 GOLD - faster than par
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 5 2 5/1 74 79 48 1.2 1:40.37 GOLD - faster than par
18-04-2026 Nottingham | 1m½f | Good | Class 5 7 100/30 75 66 28 4.2 1:47.75 GOLD - faster than par
04-10-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 2 11/4 -- 79 -- 5 1:49.12 GOLD - faster than par
18-09-2025 Pontefract | 1m | Good To Soft | Class 5 5 100/30 -- 40 10 2.2 1:50.45 GOLD - faster than par
01-05-2025 Yarmouth | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 5 5 12/1 -- 73 48 0.5 1:39.42 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+6lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Runner versus par: rating edge -23.1 | TS edge -6.8. Benchmark fit: -3.4.

Model agreement 1/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Red Hat Eagle Closer
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 42.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR61
Speed93
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-14lb below mark
FFR 61 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
93 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.4% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score20.6raw
Agreement5/6
FFR61-14lb vs OR
SpeedScore93Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+18lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +1.5
Variance Very steady 2.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.1
Ceiling Par capable 1.2 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Lingfield Steady run 30-05-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 20-03-2026
5 Southwell (AW) Competitive 28-02-2026
3 Chelmsford (AW) Finished well 12-10-2024
5 Ayr Competitive 21-09-2024
4 Haydock Run faded 07-09-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

12
30-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 5

Beat: Hitched (IRE), Post Rider (GB) | Post Rider (GB) placed next/later

20-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 7

Beat: Bravo Zulu (IRE), Warning Sign (FR), Good Speed (FR) | Foreseen (GB) won next/later, Warning Sign (FR) won next/later | Bravo Zulu (IRE) placed next/later, Goldmoyne (IRE) placed next/later

28-02-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Bravo Zulu (IRE), Aisling Oscar (IRE), Golden Pharaoh (IRE) | Saytarr (GB) won next/later | Aisling Oscar (IRE) placed next/later, Bravo Zulu (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 70% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 54%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating87
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 55
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 87
Fast 5 1W / 2P Peak rating 91
All-weather 13 3W / 8P Peak rating 91
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 37%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 34%
Proven trip profile (A)15 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +18lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +18lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +18lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 75 | FFR 61 | Best FFR 93 | FFR edge +18
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer William Knight
Jockey Marco Ghiani
Age 6
Draw 9
OR 75
Avg OR 76.8
OR vs Field -1.8
Rating 76
TS 71
Form 53/575
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile15
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
12-10-2024 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 3 1:37.15 97.2
28-02-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 5 1:41.11 101.1
20-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 7 1:38.99 99
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 33% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP13/2 OwnerPmg Partnership
Sire Gleneagles Dam Sabaweeya Damsire Street Cry
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In touch with leaders - headway over 2f out - went third over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 15/2 tchd 13/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Lingfield 5 4.2 Neutral finish
20-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) 7 1.2 Neutral finish
28-02-2026 Southwell (AW) 5 1.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
07-09-2024 | Haydock
Rating 87 OR 85
21-09-2024 | Ayr
Rating 87 OR 84
12-10-2024 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 91 OR 83
28-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 76 OR 80
20-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 76 OR 78
30-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating -- OR 77
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip15 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:37.15 | 1:41.11 | 1:38.99

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 5 | 7

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at trip1:37.02 | Chelmsford (AW) | 07-07-2024

Last distance win context: vs par -24.5s | OR 77 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Lingfield | 9f | Good To Firm | Class 4 5 13/2 77 -- -- 4.2 -- GREY - no timing read
20-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 7 17/2 78 76 45 1.2 1:38.99 GOLD - faster than par
28-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 5 18/1 80 76 71 1.2 1:40.89 GOLD - faster than par
12-10-2024 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 3 18/5 83 91 59 0.8 1:37.20 GOLD - faster than par
21-09-2024 Ayr | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 2 5 16/1 84 87 76 0.2 1:38.61 GOLD - faster than par
07-09-2024 Haydock | 1m | Good | Class 4 4 14/1 85 87 79 2.8 1:41.86 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+18lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Runner versus par: rating edge -13.1 | TS edge +16.2. Benchmark fit: 0.8.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Kalamunda Distance specialist
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 29.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Gorgeous Mr George Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 17.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Shihoku Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 4.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

4:35 | Leopardstown

4:35 | Leopardstown | 7f

| Good | Irish EBF Auction Series Race (IRE Incentive Race)

Race Confidence 40 WATCH ONLY
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR--0 rated runners | No official ratings yet
Winning Time Par1m 29.26s3 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionWATCH ONLY
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos medium
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Apollo's Comet leads the contextual model at 12.2
  • Clearer top profile: +7.0 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 29.26s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 11 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent0
Midfield0
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Apollo's CometRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 29.0 3 9-2 5 OR -- 63 -- 3/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 48% 50% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Tosca No CandisRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 8.0 -- 9-0 1 OR -- -- -- 9/2 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Sea Of RainRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 7.2 4 8-8 2 OR -- 78 -- 7/2 -- Freshened up Trip move developing Field strength developing 48% 54% 0/6 95 E Developing WATCH ONLY
Miss Ellie MaeRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 5.0 -- 8-12 10 OR -- -- -- 10/3 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Dakota JackRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-9 4 OR -- -- -- 28/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
LeadlightRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-9 9 OR -- -- -- 17/2 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
MatrookRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-9 6 OR -- -- -- 28/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Miss CorneliaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-2 11 OR -- -- -- 8/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
DocksRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-1 7 OR -- -- -- 40/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Bold MoveRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 8-13 8 OR -- -- -- 12/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Chiquitita BeeRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 0.0 10-9 8-8 3 OR -- 36 -- 66/1 -- Standard rest Up in trip Field strength developing 48% 49% 0/6 81 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Apollo's Comet

Apollo's Comet profiles as a unclear with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is E. Model alignment is 0/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Tosca No Candis

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Apollo's Comet Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 29.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Tosca No Candis Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sea Of Rain Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 7.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Miss Ellie Mae Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dakota Jack Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Leadlight Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Matrook Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Miss Cornelia Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Docks Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bold Move Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Chiquitita Bee Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

4:38 | Ripon

4:38 | Ripon | 6f

Class 6 | Good | Napoleons Casino And Restaurant Leeds Handicap

Race Confidence 52 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR60.48 rated runners | Top OR 65: Mr Cool
Winning Time Par1m 12.00s15 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3)Stalls Straight - Stands' side; Round - Inside; 1m4f - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-65
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos low
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Mr Cool leads the contextual model at 44.7
  • Compressed top end: Rajstar close enough to respect
  • Winning-time par: 1m 12.00s
Race shape Balanced context race Balanced setup suits adaptable/prominent profile.
Leaders0
Prominent3
Midfield3
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Mr CoolRun style: ProminentFinish: Sustained speed 67.1 7-4-6-3-5-3 9-9 4 OR 65 55 -10lb 9/2 +4.6 Standard rest Big drop back Modest field 68% 77% 5/6 99 C Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
RajstarRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 60.3 8-1-5-5-6 9-3 1 OR 59 66 +7lb 10/1 -1.4 Long absence Same trip Modest field 60% 62% 4/6 95 C Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Fan MailRun style: ProminentFinish: Sustained speed 59.7 5-2-6-5-7-7 9-6 6 OR 62 55 -7lb 5/2 +1.6 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 69% 83% 4/6 89 C Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
LiosaRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 57.7 6-4-10-3-3-4 9-7 3 OR 63 78 +15lb 9/2 +2.6 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 62% 65% 3/6 105 B Well in +23 CAUTION PROFILE
Fircombe HallRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 51.1 9-5-2-2-6-1 8-12 5 OR 54 45 -9lb 12/1 -6.4 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 64% 69% 4/6 98 B Well in +30 WATCH ONLY
Federal EnvoyRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 50.0 5-10-9-6-4-11 9-1 7 OR 57 78 +21lb 10/3 -3.4 Layoff check Down in trip Modest field 59% 57% 4/6 106 E Well in +21 WATCH ONLY
Big Apple JackRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 39.4 8-2-10-7-4-8 9-4 2 OR 60 70 +10lb 15/2 -0.4 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 62% 62% 3/6 100 D Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
Wish ThisRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 38.1 5-8-6-6-1-5 9-7 8 OR 63 52 -11lb 9/1 +2.6 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 67% 65% 3/6 80 A Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Mr Cool

Mr Cool profiles as a prominent with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 5/6. Draw data is a slight caution. Balanced setup suits adaptable/prominent profile

Main Danger Rajstar

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Mr Cool Prominent
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 67.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR55
Speed99
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR-10lb below mark
FFR 55 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskTop of the market is compressed
Model Score44.7raw
Agreement5/6
FFR55-10lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+22lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.1
Variance Very steady 2.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.5
Ceiling Par capable 0.6 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 Pontefract Run faded 02-06-2026
4 Happy Valley Run faded 27-05-2026
6 Ayr Run faded 20-05-2026
3 Sha Tin Troubled run 03-05-2026
5 Doncaster Run faded 02-05-2026
3 Sha Tin Strong run 06-04-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

9
02-06-2026 | Pontefract Finished 7

Beat: Dashing Dick (IRE), Bravo Zulu (IRE) | Alpha Capture (IRE) won next/later

27-05-2026 | Happy Valley Finished 4

Beat: Romantic Laos (NZ), Prestige Ricky (GB), Beauty Viva (GB) | Legend Winner (AUS) won next/later

20-05-2026 | Ayr Finished 6

Beat: Maui Breeze (GB), Royal Blaze (GB), Elizabeth Bay (GB) | Roaring Ralph (GB) won next/later | Novak (GB) placed next/later, Royal Blaze (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 68% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 79%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating61
Best ground bandTesting
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 75
Good 15 3W / 10P Peak rating 85
Fast 8 0W / 1P Peak rating 71
All-weather 12 0W / 5P Peak rating 84
Placement evidence 77% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 78%
Class fit 93%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 50%
Proven trip profile (C)18 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +22lb roomRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +22lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +22lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 65 | FFR 55 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +22
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Charlie Johnston
Jockey Connor Beasley
Age 4
Draw 4
OR 65
Avg OR 60.4
OR vs Field +4.6
Rating 61
TS 64
Form 472567
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 9 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 106.5% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 23.20s recorded | FSP 106.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile18
DEIC
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
01-01-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 12 1:15.96 76
21-01-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 6 1:12.84 72.8
02-06-2026 Pontefract Good 7 1:16.22 76.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 42% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 16 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP17/2 OwnerMiddleham Park Racing IX
Sire Kodiac Dam Moojha Damsire Forest Wildcat
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Prominent on inner - not clear run and switched left over 1f out - challenging inside final furlong - kept on

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
02-06-2026 Pontefract 7 0.3 Run faded
27-05-2026 Happy Valley 4 1.8 Fast finish
20-05-2026 Ayr 6 0.8 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 4 runs with an official OR.
06-04-2026 | Sha Tin
Rating 61 OR 56
02-05-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 63 OR 70
03-05-2026 | Sha Tin
Rating 61 OR 55
20-05-2026 | Ayr
Rating 71 OR 69
27-05-2026 | Happy Valley
Rating -- OR 56
02-06-2026 | Pontefract
Rating -- OR 67
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip18 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:15.96 | 1:12.84 | 1:16.22

Last 3 trip positions: 12 | 6 | 7

Approx winning time1m 12.00s
Last win at trip1:11.70 | Ripon | 18-06-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -0.3s | OR 77 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
02-06-2026 Pontefract | 6f | Good | Class 4 7 17/2 67 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
27-05-2026 Happy Valley | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 4 4 5/1 56 -- 28 1.8 1:39.65 GREY - below benchmark
20-05-2026 Ayr | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 5 6 14/1 69 71 52 0.8 1:28.83 GREY - below benchmark
03-05-2026 Sha Tin | 1m1f | Soft | Class 4 3 2/1F 55 61 -- 0.1 1:50.23 GREY - below benchmark
02-05-2026 Doncaster | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 5 5 11/1 70 63 53 2 1:25.67 GREY - below benchmark
06-04-2026 Sha Tin | 1m | Good | Class 4 3 27/10F 56 61 43 0.2 1:35.93 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+22lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 6

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 69.9 and winning TS par is around 53. Runner versus par: rating edge +4.1 | TS edge +11.0. Benchmark fit: 6.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Rajstar Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 60.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR66
Speed95
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 66 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
95 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.1% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score30.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR66+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore95Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+22lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Variable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +2.3
Variance Variable 9.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.1
Ceiling Par capable 0.2 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Newcastle (AW) Troubled run 14-02-2026
1 Newcastle (AW) Finished well 04-02-2026
5 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 10-01-2026
5 Newcastle (AW) Steady run 16-12-2025
6 Curragh (IRE) Run faded 10-08-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

17
14-02-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 8

Beat: Spartan Fighter (GB), Teardrops (GB) | Andalprofit (IRE) won next/later, Mayo County (GB) won next/later | Teardrops (GB) placed next/later

04-02-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Spun To Gold (USA), Yaahobby (IRE), Wingstar (IRE) | Pebble Dash (IRE) placed next/later, Spun To Gold (USA) placed next/later

10-01-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 5

Inspired (IRE) placed next/later, Ted Le Saux (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 60% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 33%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on fast ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/5
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandFast
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on fast ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
All-weather 4 1W / 1P Peak rating 63
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 15%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +22lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +22lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +22lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 59 | FFR 66 | Best FFR 81 | FFR edge +22
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ben Haslam
Jockey Oliver Stammers
Age 4
Draw 1
OR 59
Avg OR 60.4
OR vs Field -1.4
Rating 47
TS 41
Form /5-518
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
04-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 1 1:13.28 73.3
14-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard To Slow 8 1:14.53 74.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 45% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 124 days Freshness caution
Micro score +0.0 API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerDaniel Creighton
Sire Blue Point Dam Alezia Damsire Dansili
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Ducked left start - towards rear - no impression when bit short of room 1f out(op 8/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 6.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
14-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) 8 0.1 Run faded
04-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
10-01-2026 Newcastle (AW) 5 19 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
10-08-2024 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 69 OR Unrated
16-12-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 44 OR Unrated
10-01-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 5 OR Unrated
04-02-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 63 OR 55
14-02-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 47 OR 60
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:13.28 | 1:14.53

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 8

Approx winning time1m 12.00s
Last win at trip1:13.28 | Newcastle (AW) | 04-02-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.28s | OR 55 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
14-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 6 8 7/1 60 47 41 0.1 1:14.30 GREY - below benchmark
04-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 1 15/2 55 63 34 0 1:13.28 AMBER - competitive
10-01-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 3 5 125/1 -- 5 -- 19 1:45.86 GREY - below benchmark
16-12-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 3 5 15/2 -- 44 -- 5 1:44.63 GREY - below benchmark
10-08-2024 Curragh (IRE) | 7f | Good To Firm | -- 6 25/1 -- 69 32 1.8 1:26.87 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+22lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 69.9 and winning TS par is around 53. Runner versus par: rating edge -6.9 | TS edge -12.0. Benchmark fit: -3.4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Fan Mail Prominent
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 59.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR55
Speed89
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR-7lb below mark
FFR 55 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
89 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score43.7raw
Agreement4/6
FFR55-7lb vs OR
SpeedScore89Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI CHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+21lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +1.6
Variance Very steady 3.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.6
Ceiling Par capable 1.6 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Thirsk Competitive 05-06-2026
2 Carlisle Strong run 18-05-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Competitive 29-04-2026
5 Newcastle (AW) Competitive 27-03-2026
7 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 12-03-2026
7 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 24-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

15
05-06-2026 | Thirsk Finished 5

Beat: Sherlock (IRE), Woodhay Whisper (IRE), Imperial Guard (IRE) | Elvetham (IRE) placed next/later

18-05-2026 | Carlisle Finished 2

Beat: Surprised (GB), Raft Up (IRE), Ran Amok (IRE) | Invincible Ruby (IRE) won next/later, Iris Dancer (GB) won next/later | Impressor (IRE) placed next/later, Ran Amok (IRE) placed next/later

29-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Shazani (FR), Thurso (GB) | Belsito (GER) won next/later, Neyva's Angel (GB) won next/later | Dicko The Legend (IRE) placed next/later, Shazani (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 69% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 79%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 66
Good 5 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 54
All-weather 12 2W / 3P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 83% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 78%
Class fit 93%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (C)19 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +21lb roomNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +21lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +21lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 62 | FFR 55 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge +21
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tim Easterby
Jockey David Allan
Age 4
Draw 6
OR 62
Avg OR 60.4
OR vs Field +1.6
Rating 69
TS 64
Form 775625
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 105.5% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 26.32s recorded | FSP 105.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile19
DEIC
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
29-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 6 1:14.31 74.3
18-05-2026 Carlisle Good To Soft 2 1:17.51 77.5
05-06-2026 Thirsk Good 5 1:12.15 72.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 43% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 13 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/1 OwnerL Bond/Sheikh Aymen Jawad Al Hamandi/Ptr
Sire Mayson Dam Fanfair Damsire Royal Applause
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In rear - headway over 2f out - no impression from 1f out(op 10/3)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
05-06-2026 Thirsk 5 0.8 Neutral finish
18-05-2026 Carlisle 2 0.3 Fast finish
29-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 6 0.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 4 runs with an official OR.
24-02-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 69 OR 72
12-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 69 OR 70
27-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 69 OR 69
29-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating -- OR 68
18-05-2026 | Carlisle
Rating 66 OR 61
05-06-2026 | Thirsk
Rating -- OR 62
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip19 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:14.31 | 1:17.51 | 1:12.15

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 2 | 5

Approx winning time1m 12.00s
Last win at trip1:15.10 | Southwell (AW) | 03-10-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +3.1s | OR 69 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
05-06-2026 Thirsk | 6f | Good | Class 6 5 5/1 62 -- -- 0.8 -- GREY - no timing read
18-05-2026 Carlisle | 6f | Good To Soft | Class 5 2 7/1 61 66 20 0.3 1:17.51 GREY - below benchmark
29-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 6 11/4F 68 -- 36 0.5 1:14.23 GREY - below benchmark
27-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 5 11/1 69 69 61 0.3 1:14.03 GREY - below benchmark
12-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 4 7 11/2 70 69 37 0.2 1:13.67 AMBER - competitive
24-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 7 8/1 72 69 64 0.2 1:14.15 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+21lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 6

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 69.9 and winning TS par is around 53. Runner versus par: rating edge +4.1 | TS edge +11.0. Benchmark fit: 6.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Liosa Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 57.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR78
Speed105
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+15lb ahead of mark
FFR 78 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
105 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.4% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score20.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR78+15lb vs OR
SpeedScore105Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+23lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.7
Variance Very steady 3.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.7
Ceiling Par capable 5.9 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Windsor Competitive 23-05-2026
4 Leicester Run faded 13-04-2026
10 Southwell (AW) Competitive 23-10-2025
3 Kempton (AW) Run faded 08-10-2025
3 Kempton (AW) Run faded 24-09-2025
4 Haydock Finished well 05-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

19
23-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 6

Beat: Insuspense (GB), Moonhall Lass (IRE), Danger Alert (GB) | Distant Rumble (GB) placed next/later, Elvetham (IRE) placed next/later

13-04-2026 | Leicester Finished 4

Beat: Thunderous Love (GB), Bay Breeze (GB), Savannah Smiles (IRE) | Al Barez (GB) placed next/later, Bay Breeze (GB) placed next/later

23-10-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 10

Beat: Baba Reza (GB), Zero Carbon (FR) | Dark Side Thunder (GB) won next/later, Mission Command (IRE) won next/later | Baba Reza (GB) placed next/later, Hoodie Hoo (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 24%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating72
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 72
Fast 6 0W / 1P Peak rating 72
All-weather 12 4W / 9P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 65% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 1%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (B)18 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +23lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +23lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +23lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 63 | FFR 78 | Best FFR 86 | FFR edge +23
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Zoe Hawkins
Jockey Kevin Stott
Age 6
Draw 3
OR 63
Avg OR 60.4
OR vs Field +2.6
Rating 48
TS 31
Form 330-46
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 9 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 105.4% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile18
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
23-10-2025 Southwell (AW) Standard 10 1:15.14 75.1
13-04-2026 Leicester Good 4 1:12.27 72.3
23-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 6 1:10.86 70.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 67% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 67%; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP14/1 OwnerMrs P E Hawkings
Sire The Last Lion Dam Sally Is The Boss Damsire Orpen
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In rear - headway on far side of group 3f out - outpaced 2f out - hung right over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 5/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 Windsor 6 0.5 Neutral finish
13-04-2026 Leicester 4 1 Run faded
23-10-2025 Southwell (AW) 10 1.8 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
05-07-2025 | Haydock
Rating 72 OR 70
24-09-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 81 OR 77
08-10-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 78 OR 76
23-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 65 OR 76
13-04-2026 | Leicester
Rating 48 OR 67
23-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 65 OR 65
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip18 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:15.14 | 1:12.27 | 1:10.86

Last 3 trip positions: 10 | 4 | 6

Approx winning time1m 12.00s
Last win at trip1:11.23 | Kempton (AW) | 15-04-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -0.77s | OR 72 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 Windsor | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 6 6 14/1 65 65 61 0.5 1:10.86 GOLD - faster than par
13-04-2026 Leicester | 6f | Good | Class 5 4 7/1 67 48 31 1 1:12.27 GREEN - within 1% of par
23-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 4 10 8/1 76 65 28 1.8 1:14.96 GREY - below benchmark
08-10-2025 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 3 4/1 76 78 63 1.2 1:11.86 GOLD - faster than par
24-09-2025 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 3 33/1 77 81 58 1.5 1:25.02 GREY - below benchmark
05-07-2025 Haydock | 6f | Good | Class 4 4 16/1 70 72 56 1 1:13.75 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Well handicapped

+23lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -5

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 69.9 and winning TS par is around 53. Runner versus par: rating edge -21.9 | TS edge -22.0. Benchmark fit: -5.1.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Fircombe Hall Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 51.1
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR45
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-9lb below mark
FFR 45 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score29.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR45-9lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+30lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +3.1
Variance Very steady 3.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.4
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Wolverhampton (AW) Competitive 01-06-2026
5 Redcar Competitive 26-05-2026
2 Southwell (AW) Run faded 23-04-2026
2 Newcastle (AW) Strong run 20-04-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Troubled run 11-04-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 30-03-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

15
01-06-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Punchbowl Flyer (IRE), Happier (IRE) | Punchbowl Flyer (IRE) won next/later | Amaysmont (GB) placed next/later, Good Karma (GB) placed next/later

26-05-2026 | Redcar Finished 5

Beat: Dream Deal (GB), Mister Sky Blue (IRE), Lets Go Hugo (IRE) | Bayraat (GB) won next/later, Dream Deal (GB) won next/later | Mart (GB) placed next/later, Mister Sky Blue (IRE) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Moostar (GB), Megaphone (GB), Blackjack (GB) | Raft Up (IRE) won next/later | Moostar (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 50%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 56
Good 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 51
Fast 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 61
All-weather 44 5W / 19P Peak rating 63
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 32%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (B)66 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +30lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +30lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +30lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 54 | FFR 45 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge +30
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Philip Kirby
Jockey Cam Hardie
Age 8
Draw 5
OR 54
Avg OR 60.4
OR vs Field -6.4
Rating 57
TS 54
Form 162259
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 13 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 100.0% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile66
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
20-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 2 1:12.08 72.1
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 2 1:15.19 75.2
26-05-2026 Redcar Good To Firm 5 1:11.20 71.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 15% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 17 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.8 trainer RTF cold at 15%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP18/1 OwnerP Kirby
Sire Charming Thought Dam Marmot Bay Damsire Kodiac
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In touch with leaders - headway and briefly led over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 7/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
01-06-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 9 0.5 Neutral finish
26-05-2026 Redcar 5 0.2 Fast finish
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 2 2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 4 runs with an official OR.
30-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 60 OR 51
11-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 47 OR 54
20-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 61 OR 54
23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 57 OR 54
26-05-2026 | Redcar
Rating -- OR 55
01-06-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating -- OR 55
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip66 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:12.08 | 1:15.19 | 1:11.20

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 2 | 5

Approx winning time1m 12.00s
Last win at trip1:15.10 | Wolverhampton (AW) | 30-03-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +3.1s | OR 51 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
01-06-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 6 9 18/1 55 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
26-05-2026 Redcar | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 6 5 20/1 55 -- 52 0.2 1:11.20 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 2 3/1 54 57 37 2 1:15.12 GREY - below benchmark
20-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 2 15/2 54 61 54 0.3 1:12.08 GREEN - within 1% of par
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 6 9/2 54 47 27 2.2 1:15.52 GREY - below benchmark
30-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 1 9/1 51 60 47 0 1:15.10 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+30lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 69.9 and winning TS par is around 53. Runner versus par: rating edge -8.9 | TS edge +1.0. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Federal Envoy Prominent
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 50.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR78
Speed106
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+21lb ahead of mark
FFR 78 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
106 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score23.7raw
Agreement4/6
FFR78+21lb vs OR
SpeedScore106Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWell handicapped+21lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; Mild bounce watch; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.2
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.3 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Southwell (AW) Run faded 07-04-2026
10 Newcastle (AW) Below best 12-03-2026
9 Southwell (AW) Troubled run 20-02-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Run faded 30-01-2026
4 Southwell (AW) Run faded 19-12-2025
11 Southwell (AW) Below best 21-11-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 8 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

30
07-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Camera Shy (IRE), Embarked (IRE), Raft Up (IRE) | Bomb Squad (IRE) won next/later, Raft Up (IRE) won next/later | Cuban Girl (GB) placed next/later

12-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 10

Havana Prince (GB) won next/later, Trilby (GB) won next/later | Aisling Oscar (IRE) placed next/later, Dorney Lake (GB) placed next/later

20-02-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Pearly Squirrel (IRE), Bella Bisbee (GB), The Caribbean (IRE) | Asian Journey (IRE) won next/later, Bella Bisbee (GB) won next/later

Today's conditions match 59% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 58%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 74
Fast 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 67
All-weather 12 2W / 2P Peak rating 84
Placement evidence 57% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 52%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
FFR vs OR gives +21lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +21lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +21lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 57 | FFR 78 | Best FFR 78 | FFR edge +21
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Iain Jardine
Jockey Jason Hart
Age 5
Draw 7
OR 57
Avg OR 60.4
OR vs Field -3.4
Rating 66
TS 59
Form 4-6905
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 100.0% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile3
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
02-04-2024 Pontefract Heavy 5 1:23.73 83.7
13-05-2024 Windsor Good To Firm 7 1:12.89 72.9
12-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 10 1:13.84 73.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 60% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 72 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.5 trainer RTF positive at 60%
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/2 OwnerLet's Be Lucky Racing 37 & David Carroll
Sire Bated Breath Dam Caped Lady Damsire Cape Cross
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In touch with leaders - prominent over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 13/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
07-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 5 0.5 Run faded
12-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) 10 6 Neutral finish
20-02-2026 Southwell (AW) 9 2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
21-11-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 48 OR 75
19-12-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 73 OR 74
30-01-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 64 OR 72
20-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 55 OR 70
12-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 46 OR 68
07-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 66 OR 65
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:23.73 | 1:12.89 | 1:13.84

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 7 | 10

Approx winning time1m 12.00s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
07-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 6 5 11/2 65 66 59 0.5 1:26.60 GREY - below benchmark
12-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 4 10 22/1 68 46 31 6 1:13.84 GREY - below benchmark
20-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 9 13/2 70 55 28 2 1:29.76 GREY - below benchmark
30-01-2026 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 6 13/2 72 64 56 2 1:28.31 GREY - below benchmark
19-12-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 4 7/2 74 73 43 1 1:28.31 GREY - below benchmark
21-11-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 11 13/2 75 48 36 3.8 1:28.96 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+21lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 69.9 and winning TS par is around 53. Runner versus par: rating edge -3.9 | TS edge +6.0. Benchmark fit: 1.7.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Big Apple Jack Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 39.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR70
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+10lb ahead of mark
FFR 70 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.5% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score24.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR70+10lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+18lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.4
Variance Very steady 3.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.7
Ceiling Par capable 5 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Southwell (AW) Competitive 21-05-2026
2 Nottingham Finished well 26-04-2026
10 Redcar Finished well 27-10-2025
7 Leicester Troubled run 07-10-2025
4 Ripon Finished well 27-09-2025
8 York Run faded 25-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

13
21-05-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 8

Beat: Iconic Times (GB), One More Dream (GB), Watermelon Sugar (IRE) | Daytona Lady (IRE) placed next/later

26-04-2026 | Nottingham Finished 2

Beat: Ishe Worth Agamble (GB), Phoenix Moon (IRE), Beaming Light (GB) | Winchurch (IRE) won next/later | Ishe Worth Agamble (GB) placed next/later, Phoenix Moon (IRE) placed next/later

27-10-2025 | Redcar Finished 10

Beat: Solid Bond (IRE), Isla Bella (GB), Silver Arrow (IRE) | I Need Your Love (GB) won next/later, Iris Dancer (GB) won next/later | Isla Bella (GB) placed next/later, Laurens Dream (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 41%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating69
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 54
Good 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 69
Fast 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 70
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 48
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 21%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 58%
9 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +18lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +18lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +18lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 60 | FFR 70 | Best FFR 78 | FFR edge +18
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Michael & David Easterby
Jockey Joanna Mason
Age 4
Draw 2
OR 60
Avg OR 60.4
OR vs Field -0.4
Rating 60
TS 47
Form 470-28
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 102.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 26.33s recorded | FSP 102.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile9
DEID
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
27-10-2025 Redcar Good To Soft 10 1:13.38 73.4
26-04-2026 Nottingham Good 2 1:14.00 74
21-05-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 8 1:14.96 75
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 40% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 28 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: v
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/1 OwnerMark Hickling Racing
Sire Mayson Dam Amour Fou Damsire Piccolo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Held up in rear - headway from over 2f out - hung left over 1f out - no chance with winner but went second inside final furlong - kept on(op 17/2 tchd 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
21-05-2026 Southwell (AW) 8 0.8 Neutral finish
26-04-2026 Nottingham 2 3.8 Fast finish
27-10-2025 Redcar 10 1.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
25-07-2025 | York
Rating 55 OR 65
27-09-2025 | Ripon
Rating 69 OR 64
07-10-2025 | Leicester
Rating 54 OR 64
27-10-2025 | Redcar
Rating 47 OR 63
26-04-2026 | Nottingham
Rating 60 OR 61
21-05-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 48 OR 61
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:13.38 | 1:14.00 | 1:14.96

Last 3 trip positions: 10 | 2 | 8

Approx winning time1m 12.00s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
21-05-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 8 9/1 61 48 40 0.8 1:14.73 GREY - below benchmark
26-04-2026 Nottingham | 6f | Good | Class 6 2 6/1 61 60 47 3.8 1:14.00 GREY - below benchmark
27-10-2025 Redcar | 6f | Good To Soft | Class 6 10 15/2 63 47 27 1.8 1:13.28 AMBER - competitive
07-10-2025 Leicester | 6f | Good To Soft | Class 5 7 13/2 64 54 44 0.5 1:12.79 AMBER - competitive
27-09-2025 Ripon | 6f | Good | Class 6 4 11/1 64 69 62 0.2 1:12.78 AMBER - competitive
25-07-2025 York | 5½f | Good | Class 4 8 16/1 65 55 46 2 1:5.25 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+18lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 69.9 and winning TS par is around 53. Runner versus par: rating edge -9.9 | TS edge -6.0. Benchmark fit: -1.7.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Wish This Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 38.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR52
Speed80
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-11lb below mark
FFR 52 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
8 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.3% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score22.9raw
Agreement3/6
FFR52-11lb vs OR
SpeedScore80Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+21lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Regressing

confidence nudge +0.1
Variance Reliable 7.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.5
Ceiling Par capable 2.4 vs par
Curve Regressing Trend -2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Hamilton Competitive 04-06-2026
8 Carlisle Run faded 18-05-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Troubled run 28-04-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Run faded 11-04-2026
1 Newcastle (AW) Strong run 01-11-2025
5 Hamilton Competitive 22-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

9
04-06-2026 | Hamilton Finished 5

Beat: Iris Dancer (GB), Pickersgill (IRE), Kelpie Grey (GB) | Invincible Ruby (IRE) won next/later, Iris Dancer (GB) won next/later

18-05-2026 | Carlisle Finished 8

Beat: William Dewhirst (IRE), Detective (GB) | Bay Breeze (GB) placed next/later, Black Storm (IRE) placed next/later

28-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Stoneywell (GB) | Dapper Gee Gee (GB) won next/later

Today's conditions match 67% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 45%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 0W / 0P Peak rating 75
Good 5 0W / 1P Peak rating 70
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 4 1W / 1P Peak rating 72
Placement evidence 65% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 27%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 34%
Proven trip profile (A)7 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +21lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +21lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +21lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 63 | FFR 52 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge +21
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Alan Brown
Jockey Luke Morris
Age 4
Draw 8
OR 63
Avg OR 60.4
OR vs Field +2.6
Rating 61
TS 52
Form 1-6685
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 5 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 103.3% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 26.30s recorded | FSP 103.3%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile7
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
01-11-2025 Newcastle (AW) Standard 1 1:13.92 73.9
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 6 1:14.23 74.2
04-06-2026 Hamilton Good 5 1:13.19 73.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 21% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 14 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 21%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: b; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearb | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/1 OwnerS McMillan & F Reay
Sire Aclaim Dam Warsash Damsire War Command
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent - pressed leader over 1f out - soon bit short of room and outpaced - weakened final 110yds(op 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
04-06-2026 Hamilton 5 2 Neutral finish
18-05-2026 Carlisle 8 1 Run faded
28-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 6 2 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 4 runs with an official OR.
22-09-2025 | Hamilton
Rating 51 OR 67
01-11-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 72 OR 64
11-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 61 OR 67
28-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating -- OR 67
18-05-2026 | Carlisle
Rating 45 OR 66
04-06-2026 | Hamilton
Rating -- OR 65
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip7 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:13.92 | 1:14.23 | 1:13.19

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 6 | 5

Approx winning time1m 12.00s
Last win at trip1:13.92 | Newcastle (AW) | 01-11-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +1.92s | OR 64 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
04-06-2026 Hamilton | 6f | Good | Class 5 5 9/1 65 -- -- 2 -- GREY - no timing read
18-05-2026 Carlisle | 7f | Soft | Class 5 8 18/1 66 45 24 1 1:34.33 GREY - below benchmark
28-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 6 12/1 67 -- 39 2 1:28.32 GREY - below benchmark
11-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 6 18/1 67 61 52 0.1 1:14.06 GREY - below benchmark
01-11-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 1 9/1 64 72 42 0 1:13.92 GREY - below benchmark
22-09-2025 Hamilton | 6f | Soft | Class 5 5 11/1 67 51 39 1.2 1:14.83 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+21lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 69.9 and winning TS par is around 53. Runner versus par: rating edge -8.9 | TS edge -1.0. Benchmark fit: -0.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
4:41 | Lingfield

4:41 | Lingfield | 10f

Class 5 | Good | Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap

Race Confidence 60 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR72.910 rated runners | Top OR 75: Tai Hang Pegasus
Winning Time Par2m 07.98s2 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-75
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos medium
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Alice De Clare leads the contextual model at 42.9
  • Moderate edge over next best: +3.0
  • Winning-time par: 2m 07.98s
Race shape Controlled tactical race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 4 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent2
Midfield3
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Alice De ClareRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 54.7 1-1-2-4-7-9 9-6 5 OR 72 83 +11lb 5/2 -0.9 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 61% 66% 2/6 94 C Well in +12 CAUTION PROFILE
Oh Yes You DoRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 45.4 4-2-1-4 9-5 1 OR 71 82 +11lb 10/3 -1.9 Freshened up Big step up Solid field 57% 65% 2/6 99 D Well in +17 CAUTION PROFILE
Light DreamerRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 36.5 2-7-5-2 9-8 6 OR 74 80 +6lb 17/2 +1.1 Standard rest Big step up Solid field 56% 60% 3/6 98 E Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
Molo Del PalazzoRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 34.5 3-6-5 9-9 10 OR 75 77 +2lb 11/1 +2.1 Standard rest Big step up Solid field 52% 54% 0/6 96 D Ceiling +3 WATCH ONLY
Tai Hang PegasusRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 18.6 7-4-6-3-3 9-9 3 OR 75 68 -7lb 20/1 +2.1 Long absence Big step up Solid field 58% 46% 1/6 89 E Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
WindbreakerRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 17.8 3-3-5 9-7 9 OR 73 84 +11lb 9/2 +0.1 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 53% 54% 0/6 97 E Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
Last VerseRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 17.5 3-5-3 9-7 2 OR 73 70 -3lb 15/2 +0.1 Long absence Big step up Solid field 53% 55% 0/6 83 E Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
MostaanRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 14.7 5-5-5 9-8 8 OR 74 80 +6lb 9/2 +1.1 Standard rest Big step up Solid field 55% 52% 0/6 96 D Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Blue NoonRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 11.8 6-3-4-4 9-9 7 OR 75 69 -6lb 12/1 +2.1 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 57% 59% 1/6 98 D Workable +10 CAUTION PROFILE
AntiquarianRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 4.2 4-10-6-1-8-5 9-1 4 OR 67 61 -6lb 33/1 -5.9 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 56% 60% 0/6 96 E Well in +33 WATCH ONLY
Main Context Fit Alice De Clare

Alice De Clare profiles as a midfield with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 2/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Oh Yes You Do

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Alice De Clare Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 54.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR83
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+11lb ahead of mark
FFR 83 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%even finish
101.6% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score42.9raw
Agreement2/6
FFR83+11lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+12lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +1.7
Variance Reliable 8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.7
Ceiling Par capable 5.7 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Leicester Finished well 26-05-2026
1 Yarmouth Strong run 30-04-2026
2 Beverley Finished well 23-04-2026
4 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 23-03-2026
7 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 09-03-2026
9 Kempton (AW) Competitive 04-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

7
26-05-2026 | Leicester Finished 1

Beat: Pentonville (GB), Zooter (GB), Fille Imbassee (GB) | Pentonville (GB) won next/later

30-04-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 1

Beat: Sports Day (IRE), Time To Sparkle (GB), Grindleton (GB) | Grindleton (GB) placed next/later, Heart Sign (GB) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Beverley Finished 2

Beat: Von Dutch (IRE), Dream Of Ithaca (GB), Laser Luck (GB) | Barbury Boy (GB) won next/later

Today's conditions match 61% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 48%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on fast ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandFast
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on fast ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 3 2W / 3P Peak rating 73
All-weather 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 54
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 29%
Mark room 88%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +12lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +12lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +12lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 83 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge +12
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer James Fanshawe
Jockey George Wood
Age 3
Draw 5
OR 72
Avg OR 72.9
OR vs Field -0.9
Rating 71
TS 64
Form 974211
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile3
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
23-04-2026 Beverley Good To Firm 2 2:4.05 124
30-04-2026 Yarmouth Good To Firm 1 2:6.01 126
26-05-2026 Leicester Good To Firm 1 2:9.69 129.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 52% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 23 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP2/7F OwnerPaul Whight
Sire Space Blues Dam Elegant Maxime Damsire Maxios
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Midfield - angled right over 3f out - headway over 2f out - shaken up and led over 1f out - edged left and clear inside final furlong - eased towards finish(op 5/6 tchd 4/5 and tchd Evens)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
26-05-2026 Leicester 1 0 Fast finish
30-04-2026 Yarmouth 1 0 Fast finish
23-04-2026 Beverley 2 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
04-02-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 18 OR Unrated
09-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 51 OR Unrated
23-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 54 OR Unrated
23-04-2026 | Beverley
Rating 71 OR 59
30-04-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating -- OR 59
26-05-2026 | Leicester
Rating 73 OR 68
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:4.05 | 2:6.01 | 2:9.69

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1 | 1

Approx winning time2m 07.98s
Last win at trip2:09.69 | Leicester | 26-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.71s | OR 68 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
26-05-2026 Leicester | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 5 1 2/7F 68 73 36 0 2:09.69 AMBER - competitive
30-04-2026 Yarmouth | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 6 1 10/11F 59 -- 64 0 2:06.01 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Beverley | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 6 2 10/1 59 71 62 0.3 2:04.05 GOLD - faster than par
23-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 4 200/1 -- 54 -- 0.5 1:52.59 GOLD - faster than par
09-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m1½f | Standard | Class 4 7 150/1 -- 51 19 0.5 2:03.44 GOLD - faster than par
04-02-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 9 22/1 -- 18 -- 2.2 1:43.42 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+12lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 80.5 and winning TS par is around 68. Runner versus par: rating edge -9.5 | TS edge -4.0. Benchmark fit: -0.3.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Oh Yes You Do Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 45.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR82
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+11lb ahead of mark
FFR 82 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.3% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score39.9raw
Agreement2/6
FFR82+11lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+17lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +2.4
Variance Very steady 3.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.4
Ceiling Below requirement -1.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Windsor Finished well 18-05-2026
2 Doncaster Strong run 24-04-2026
1 Leicester Finished well 07-10-2025
4 Goodwood Run faded 23-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

14
18-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 4

Beat: Wardlaw (USA), Sir Griflet (IRE), Grey Sands (IRE) | Any Which Way (GB) won next/later, King Of Berkshire (IRE) won next/later | Wardlaw (USA) placed next/later

24-04-2026 | Doncaster Finished 2

Beat: Myrrh (GB), Finally Escaped (GB), Little Miss India (IRE) | Alkumatic Jo Jo (IRE) placed next/later

07-10-2025 | Leicester Finished 1

Beat: Emmas Letter (GB), Charlotte Corday (IRE), Ammoony (FR) | Ammoony (FR) won next/later, Charlotte Corday (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 57% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 43%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/4
Best similar rating74
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 64
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 74
Fast 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 74
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 65% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 28%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +17lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +17lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +17lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 71 | FFR 82 | Best FFR 88 | FFR edge +17
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer David Menuisier
Jockey Dylan Hogan
Age 3
Draw 1
OR 71
Avg OR 72.9
OR vs Field -1.9
Rating 74
TS 46
Form 41-24
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-04-2026 Doncaster Good To Firm 2 2:11.11 131.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 71% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 31 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +1.2 trainer RTF hot at 71%; recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerJayar Investments
Sire Zarak Dam Dearfuturehusband Damsire Elusive Quality
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In touch with leaders - steady headway over 2f out - went second over 1f out - kept on(op 13/8)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
18-05-2026 Windsor 4 0.5 Fast finish
24-04-2026 Doncaster 2 1.2 Fast finish
07-10-2025 Leicester 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 2 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
23-08-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 57 OR Unrated
07-10-2025 | Leicester
Rating 64 OR Unrated
24-04-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 74 OR 69
18-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 74 OR 71
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:11.11

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time2m 07.98s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
18-05-2026 Windsor | 1m3½f | Good | Class 5 4 6/1 71 74 60 0.5 2:29.03 GREY - below benchmark
24-04-2026 Doncaster | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 5 2 11/8F 69 74 46 1.2 2:11.11 AMBER - competitive
07-10-2025 Leicester | 1m | Good To Soft | Class 4 1 4/1 -- 64 17 0 1:48.05 GOLD - faster than par
23-08-2025 Goodwood | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 2 4 12/1 -- 57 38 5.5 1:41.56 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+17lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 80.5 and winning TS par is around 68. Runner versus par: rating edge -6.5 | TS edge -22.0. Benchmark fit: -1.4.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Light Dreamer Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 36.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Molo Del Palazzo Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 34.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Tai Hang Pegasus Front-end controller
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 18.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Windbreaker Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 17.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Last Verse Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 17.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Mostaan Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 14.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Blue Noon Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 11.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Antiquarian Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

4:50 | Ascot

4:50 | Ascot | 8f

Class 2 | Good To Firm | Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings)

Race Confidence 66 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNAPace-pressure sprint
Chaos IndexHigh
Average OR93.931 rated runners | Top OR 103: Pathein
Winning Time Par1m 39.77s16 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.9, Centre 8.7, Far side 8.5, Round 7.6) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; Round - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-105
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Pace-pressure sprint | chaos high
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Organise leads the contextual model at 65.2
  • Clearer top profile: +12.2 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 39.77s
Race shape Pace-pressure sprint Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 6 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders13
Prominent2
Midfield7
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
OrganiseRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 2-1-1 9-7 9 OR 101 94 -7lb 17/2 +7.1 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 53% 66% 4/6 100 C Stiff -7 CAUTION PROFILE
St AntonRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 62.8 1-1-3-2-2-3 8-11 21 OR 91 87 -4lb 25/1 -2.9 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 56% 61% 5/6 100 C Ceiling +1 PRICE DEPENDENT
Blue CourvoisierRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 61.0 1-4-2-2-1 8-12 1 OR 92 104 +12lb 14/1 -1.9 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 60% 67% 4/6 100 C Well in +12 PRICE DEPENDENT
Laureate CrownRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 57.3 1-1-6-5-8-1 9-4 16 OR 98 97 -1lb 12/1 +4.1 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 63% 72% 4/6 100 C Stiff -1 PRICE DEPENDENT
LangstoneRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 54.8 2-1-1-5 8-13 20 OR 93 99 +6lb 12/1 -0.9 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 58% 67% 4/6 99 D Workable +6 PRICE DEPENDENT
We're GoosersRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 53.0 1-6-1-2-2 9-1 7 OR 95 92 -3lb 17/2 +1.1 Freshened up Up in trip Strong field 41% 54% 4/6 110 E Stiff -3 PRICE DEPENDENT
PatheinRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 52.0 3-3-5-1 9-9 26 OR 103 91 -12lb 18/1 +9.1 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 54% 61% 4/6 99 C Stiff -6 CAUTION PROFILE
Tales Of WisdomRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 51.0 1-5-1 9-6 8 OR 100 93 -7lb 16/1 +6.1 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 46% 57% 4/6 106 D Stiff -7 CAUTION PROFILE
Wise PrinceRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 49.8 4-8-3-1 9-8 15 OR 102 93 -9lb 40/1 +8.1 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 53% 52% 5/6 94 E Stiff -7 CAUTION PROFILE
Crest Of FireRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 46.0 3-1-2-3-4-2 8-11 5 OR 91 97 +6lb 18/1 -2.9 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 55% 66% 3/6 104 C Workable +6 WATCH ONLY
Capall RasaRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 46.0 9-4-1-1-8-3 8-11 30 OR 91 86 -5lb 66/1 -2.9 Freshened up Big drop back Strong field 48% 59% 4/6 100 C Stiff -2 WATCH ONLY
ConclaveRun style: Front-runnerFinish: No clear style 45.8 1-2-1 9-3 29 OR 97 94 -3lb 20/1 +3.1 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 53% 71% 3/6 96 C Stiff -2 PRICE DEPENDENT
Richie's RocketRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 43.8 7-5-4-1-3 9-0 31 OR 94 85 -9lb 33/1 +0.1 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 57% 66% 3/6 97 C Ceiling +3 WATCH ONLY
JamestownRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 37.5 1-2-2-4 8-10 25 OR 90 86 -4lb 15/2 -3.9 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 52% 56% 3/6 103 D Ceiling +1 CAUTION PROFILE
Winding StreamRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 37.4 6-2-1 8-9 24 OR 89 84 -5lb 40/1 -4.9 Freshened up Big drop back Strong field 44% 52% 3/6 92 D Stiff -5 CAUTION PROFILE
Outback HeatRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 35.0 1-3-1 8-11 18 OR 91 89 -2lb 10/1 -2.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 44% 57% 2/6 102 C Stiff -2 CAUTION PROFILE
Noelan StarRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 31.0 3-1-1 8-12 17 OR 92 78 -14lb 40/1 -1.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 44% 51% 2/6 102 C Stiff -2 CAUTION PROFILE
Bobby McGeeRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 30.0 1-1-1-4-3-4 8-13 11 OR 93 83 -10lb 20/1 -0.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 41% 49% 3/6 92 -- Stiff -4 CAUTION PROFILE
HilitanyRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 25.0 12-1-9-4-4-7 9-6 23 OR 100 78 -22lb 66/1 +6.1 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 59% 66% 2/6 95 C Ceiling +0 CAUTION PROFILE
WechaadRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 22.5 4-3-1-2-3-6 9-1 27 OR 95 89 -6lb 17/2 +1.1 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 57% 70% 2/6 98 C Ceiling +3 PRICE DEPENDENT
New MonarchRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 19.9 6-7-1-4-4-2 8-11 13 OR 91 83 -8lb 66/1 -2.9 Standard rest Up in trip Strong field 47% 54% 1/6 97 E Ceiling +2 CAUTION PROFILE
Exclusive CodeRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 18.0 1-4-4 8-10 3 OR 90 88 -2lb 18/1 -3.9 Layoff check Same trip Strong field 49% 61% 3/6 100 D Ceiling +3 WATCH ONLY
New ConnectionRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 16.9 4-4 9-1 6 OR 95 80 -15lb 25/1 +1.1 Freshened up Big drop back Strong field 39% 39% 0/6 99 E Stiff -15 CAUTION PROFILE
CharlyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 16.8 1-3-1-1-4 8-13 4 OR 93 89 -4lb 28/1 -0.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 45% 53% 0/6 109 C Stiff -4 CAUTION PROFILE
MoonfallRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 16.5 5-7-1-3-2 8-10 28 OR 90 92 +2lb 10/1 -3.9 Freshened up Trip move developing Strong field 48% 55% 3/6 99 E Ceiling +2 WATCH ONLY
Victory TipRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 8.8 2-9-1 8-13 10 OR 93 78 -15lb 40/1 -0.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 56% 51% 1/6 92 C Stiff -12 CAUTION PROFILE
Lion Of AlbaRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 8.7 7-1-5-5 8-10 32 OR 90 87 -3lb 40/1 -3.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 52% 59% 2/6 99 E Ceiling +4 WATCH ONLY
Intense VisionRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 8.3 3 8-11 2 OR 91 75 -16lb 50/1 -2.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 38% 33% 0/6 78 E Stiff -16 CAUTION PROFILE
Vincenzo PeruggiaRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 8.0 7-2-10-1-3 8-11 12 OR 91 80 -11lb 50/1 -2.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 52% 62% 2/6 96 D Stiff -3 CAUTION PROFILE
Flushing MeadowsRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 2.7 5-5-8-2-2-1 9-5 22 OR 99 68 -31lb 11/1 +5.1 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 54% 45% 2/6 100 D Stiff -9 CAUTION PROFILE
RunmanRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 1.0 4-1-1 8-11 14 OR 91 85 -6lb 40/1 -2.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 41% 51% 2/6 104 D Stiff -3 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Organise

Organise profiles as a front-runner with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 4/6. Draw data is a slight caution. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger St Anton

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Organise Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR94
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-7lb below mark
FFR 94 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
107.2% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting profile, but FFR sits below today's mark Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score65.2raw
Agreement4/6
FFR94-7lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-7lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Very steady 0.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.2
Ceiling Below requirement -0.3 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Sandown Strong run 24-04-2026
1 Yarmouth Strong run 11-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 26-11-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

17
24-04-2026 | Sandown Finished 2

Beat: Nobody Knows (IRE), Capall Rasa (IRE), Suspended Sentence (FR)

11-04-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 1

Beat: Weheedd (IRE), Outback Heat (GB), Ya Karim (IRE) | Hengest (GB) won next/later, Outback Heat (GB) won next/later | Ya Karim (IRE) placed next/later

26-11-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: The Stone Power (GB), Breathe Easy (IRE), Big Money (GB) | Barbury Boy (GB) won next/later, Breathe Easy (IRE) won next/later | John Harrison (GB) placed next/later, Rogue Invincible (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 53% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 88%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 104
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 95
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 63%
Class fit 100%
Mark room 31%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -7lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -7lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 101 | FFR 94 | Best FFR 94 | FFR edge -7
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Thady Gosden
Jockey James Doyle
Age 3
Draw 9
OR 101
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field +7.1
Rating 104
TS 88
Form 1-12
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-04-2026 Yarmouth Good 1 1:38.45 98.5
24-04-2026 Sandown Good 2 1:43.66 103.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 68% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 55 days Standard layoff
Micro score +1.0 trainer RTF positive at 68%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP10/11F OwnerWathnan Racing
Sire Night Of Thunder Dam Maid To Dream Damsire Oasis Dream
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Took keen hold - briefly led - soon steadied and in touch with leaders - ridden and led again over 1f out - headed inside final 110yds - kept on(tchd 5/6)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
24-04-2026 Sandown 2 0.5 Fast finish
11-04-2026 Yarmouth 1 0 Fast finish
26-11-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 1 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
26-11-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 95 OR Unrated
11-04-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating 91 OR Unrated
24-04-2026 | Sandown
Rating 104 OR 97
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:38.45 | 1:43.66

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip1:38.45 | Yarmouth | 11-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -1.32s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
24-04-2026 Sandown | 1m | Good | Class 2 2 10/11F 97 104 88 0.5 1:43.66 GREY - below benchmark
11-04-2026 Yarmouth | 1m | Good | Class 4 1 8/15F -- 91 58 0 1:38.45 GOLD - faster than par
26-11-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 1 11/10F -- 95 65 0 1:27.86 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-7lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 8

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +11.3 | TS edge +9.6. Benchmark fit: 7.7.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
St Anton Midfield
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 62.8
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR87
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-4lb below mark
FFR 87 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.4% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score38.2raw
Agreement5/6
FFR87-4lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapNear ceiling+1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Very steady 1.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 0.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Carlisle Strong run 30-05-2026
1 Newmarket Finished well 01-05-2026
3 Newmarket Finished well 14-04-2026
2 Salisbury Solid effort 02-10-2025
2 Epsom Run faded 11-09-2025
3 Newmarket (July) Solid effort 22-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

13
30-05-2026 | Carlisle Finished 1

Beat: Wild Thoughts (IRE), Kanishka (IRE), Secret History (IRE) | Factual (IRE) placed next/later

01-05-2026 | Newmarket Finished 1

Beat: Comic Hero (IRE), Fort Rock (GB), Lake Como (IRE) | Royal Bodyguard (IRE) placed next/later

14-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 3

Beat: Arbaawy (GB), Luzon Heights (GB), Were Goosers (IRE) | Blue Courvoisier (GB) won next/later, Were Goosers (IRE) won next/later | Akho Mezzna (FR) placed next/later, Arbaawy (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 54%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating91
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 77
Good 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 86
Fast 3 2W / 3P Peak rating 91
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 61% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 73%
Class fit 37%
Mark room 55%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (C)Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +1lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 91 | FFR 87 | Best FFR 92 | FFR edge +1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Richard Hannon
Jockey Sean Levey
Age 3
Draw 21
OR 91
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field -2.9
Rating 91
TS 82
Form 22-311
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
14-04-2026 Newmarket Good 3 1:38.75 98.8
01-05-2026 Newmarket Good To Firm 1 1:38.33 98.3
30-05-2026 Carlisle Good To Firm 1 1:39.48 99.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 58% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/4F OwnerStall Perlen
Sire Mehmas Dam Jeva Damsire Sea The Stars
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Ducked right start - held up in rear - headway and pressed leader over 1f out - soon ridden and edged right - led towards finish(op 9/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Carlisle 1 0 Neutral finish
01-05-2026 Newmarket 1 0 Fast finish
14-04-2026 Newmarket 3 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
22-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 75 OR Unrated
11-09-2025 | Epsom
Rating 77 OR Unrated
02-10-2025 | Salisbury
Rating 80 OR Unrated
14-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 86 OR 82
01-05-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 91 OR 82
30-05-2026 | Carlisle
Rating -- OR 85
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:38.75 | 1:38.33 | 1:39.48

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 1 | 1

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip-- | Carlisle | 30-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -- | OR 85 | weight 9-9

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Carlisle | 8f | Good To Firm | Class 4 1 7/4F 85 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
01-05-2026 Newmarket | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 3 1 4/1 82 91 73 0 1:38.33 GOLD - faster than par
14-04-2026 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 4 3 5/1 82 86 82 0.3 1:38.75 GOLD - faster than par
02-10-2025 Salisbury | 1m | Good | Class 4 2 5/2J -- 80 71 2.8 1:44.55 GREY - below benchmark
11-09-2025 Epsom | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 4 2 5/6F -- 77 50 0.8 1:26.58 GOLD - faster than par
22-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 15/2 -- 75 58 2.2 1:26.98 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge -9.7 | TS edge +3.6. Benchmark fit: 0.8.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Blue Courvoisier Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 61.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR104
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+12lb ahead of mark
FFR 104 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.9% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score37.5raw
Agreement4/6
FFR104+12lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+12lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.7
Ceiling Ceiling edge 8 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Carlisle Strong run 30-05-2026
4 Ascot Run faded 08-05-2026
2 Newmarket Strong run 14-04-2026
2 Bath Run faded 30-09-2025
1 Leicester Finished well 09-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

11
30-05-2026 | Carlisle Finished 1

Beat: Langstone (GB), Crest Of Fire (IRE), Princling (GB)

14-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 2

Beat: St Anton (IRE), Arbaawy (GB), Luzon Heights (GB) | St Anton (IRE) won next/later, Were Goosers (IRE) won next/later | Akho Mezzna (FR) placed next/later, Arbaawy (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 60% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 71%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/5
Best similar rating73
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 1W / 2P Peak rating 87
Fast 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 73
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 63%
Class fit 84%
Mark room 88%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 42%
Class benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +12lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +12lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +12lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 92 | FFR 104 | Best FFR 104 | FFR edge +12
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Clive Cox
Jockey Saffie Osborne
Age 3
Draw 1
OR 92
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field -1.9
Rating 87
TS 83
Form 12-241
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
14-04-2026 Newmarket Good 2 1:38.71 98.7
08-05-2026 Ascot Good 4 1:41.49 101.5
30-05-2026 Carlisle Good To Firm 1 1:37.51 97.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 47% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/1 OwnerA D Spence & I Madueke
Sire Sea The Stars Dam Priceless Damsire Exceed And Excel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Took keen hold - led narrowly - ridden and headed over 1f out - kept on(op 13/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Carlisle 1 0 Neutral finish
08-05-2026 Ascot 4 0.8 Neutral finish
14-04-2026 Newmarket 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 2 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
09-09-2025 | Leicester
Rating 76 OR Unrated
30-09-2025 | Bath
Rating 73 OR Unrated
14-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 87 OR 82
08-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 84 OR 83
30-05-2026 | Carlisle
Rating -- OR 83
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:38.71 | 1:41.49 | 1:37.51

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 4 | 1

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip-- | Carlisle | 30-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -- | OR 83 | weight 8-7

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Carlisle | 8f | Good To Firm | Class 2 1 5/1 83 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
08-05-2026 Ascot | 1m | Good | Class 4 4 9/4F 83 84 60 0.8 1:41.49 AMBER - competitive
14-04-2026 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 4 2 11/2 82 87 83 0.5 1:38.71 GOLD - faster than par
30-09-2025 Bath | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 4 2 11/8 -- 73 57 3.5 1:40.81 AMBER - competitive
09-09-2025 Leicester | 7f | Good | Class 4 1 6/1 -- 76 68 0 1:22.58 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+12lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +4.3 | TS edge +4.6. Benchmark fit: 4.2.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Laureate Crown Late pressure closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 57.3
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR97
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-1lb near mark
FFR 97 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
100 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.5% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score51.0raw
Agreement4/6
FFR97-1lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.3
Variance Reliable 7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.1
Ceiling Ceiling edge 10.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Sandown Strong run 24-04-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 23-03-2026
6 Doncaster Run faded 11-09-2025
5 Deauville (FR) Run faded 17-08-2025
8 Goodwood Troubled run 29-07-2025
1 Ascot Finished well 12-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

9
24-04-2026 | Sandown Finished 1

Beat: Organise (GB), Nobody Knows (IRE), Capall Rasa (IRE)

23-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Waterford Castle (IRE), Gorey Gold (IRE), Born A Star (IRE) | Waterford Castle (IRE) placed next/later

11-09-2025 | Doncaster Finished 6

Beat: Pacifica Pier (IRE), Daydreama (GB) | Crest Of Fire (IRE) won next/later, McMurray (IRE) won next/later | Boiling Over (IRE) placed next/later, Daydreama (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 63% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 79%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Pace shape Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating84
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 79
Good 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 101
Fast 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 84
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 94
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 100%
Mark room 49%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -1lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 98 | FFR 97 | Best FFR 97 | FFR edge -1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Hugo Palmer
Jockey Jamie Spencer
Age 3
Draw 16
OR 98
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field +4.1
Rating 101
TS 85
Form 856-11
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-09-2025 Doncaster Good To Soft 6 1:42.44 102.4
24-04-2026 Sandown Good 1 1:43.58 103.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 59% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 55 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerMrs Fitri Hay
Sire Victor Ludorum Dam Petit Trianon Damsire Dansili
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this courseDistance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Dwelt start - raced in last - steady headway going easily over 2f out - ridden to lead inside final 110yds - kept on(op 9/1 tchd 10/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
24-04-2026 Sandown 1 0 Fast finish
23-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
11-09-2025 Doncaster 6 3.8 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 3 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
12-07-2025 | Ascot
Rating 84 OR Unrated
29-07-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 86 OR Unrated
17-08-2025 | Deauville (FR)
Rating 79 OR Unrated
11-09-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 70 OR 90
23-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 94 OR 87
24-04-2026 | Sandown
Rating 101 OR 93
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:42.44 | 1:43.58

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 1

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip1:43.58 | Sandown | 24-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +3.81s | OR 93 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
24-04-2026 Sandown | 1m | Good | Class 2 1 7/1 93 101 85 0 1:43.58 GREY - below benchmark
23-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 4 1 7/4 87 94 51 0 1:49.29 GREY - below benchmark
11-09-2025 Doncaster | 1m | Good To Soft | Class 3 6 11/2 90 70 59 3.8 1:42.59 GREY - below benchmark
17-08-2025 Deauville (FR) | 7f | Good To Soft | -- 5 25/1 -- 79 75 5.5 1:23.29 GOLD - faster than par
29-07-2025 Goodwood | 7f | Good | Class 1 8 18/1 -- 86 56 4 1:27.93 GOLD - faster than par
12-07-2025 Ascot | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 1 14/1 -- 84 73 0 1:26.46 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 6

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +12.3 | TS edge +6.6. Benchmark fit: 6.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Langstone Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 54.8
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR99
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+6lb ahead of mark
FFR 99 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score43.5raw
Agreement4/6
FFR99+6lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWorkable mark+6lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +2.8
Variance Very steady 2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Par capable 0 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Carlisle Solid effort 30-05-2026
1 Kempton (AW) Finished well 30-04-2026
1 Doncaster Troubled run 29-03-2026
5 Leicester Competitive 28-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

13
30-05-2026 | Carlisle Finished 2

Beat: Crest Of Fire (IRE), Princling (GB), Delinquent (IRE)

30-04-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Makerstoun (IRE), Tigers Nest (FR), Trelissick (GB) | Tales Of Wisdom (IRE) won next/later | Makerstoun (IRE) placed next/later, Ray Mon Dough (GB) placed next/later

29-03-2026 | Doncaster Finished 1

Beat: King Of Earth (GB), Naval Light (GB), The Golden Snitch (IRE) | King Of Earth (GB) won next/later, Naval Light (GB) won next/later | Brave Hunter (GB) placed next/later, Record Day (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 58%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 86
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 74%
Mark room 70%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +6lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +6lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 93 | FFR 99 | Best FFR 99 | FFR edge +6
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Clive Cox
Jockey Rob Hornby
Age 3
Draw 20
OR 93
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field -0.9
Rating 86
TS 71
Form 5-112
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
30-05-2026 Carlisle Good To Firm 2 1:37.76 97.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 47% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/2 OwnerTeme Valley & Aura Racing
Sire Mayson Dam Volition Damsire Dark Angel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent - carried left and lost position over 1f out - ran on well to lead inside final 110yds - won going away

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Carlisle 2 1.5 Neutral finish
30-04-2026 Kempton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
29-03-2026 Doncaster 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
28-10-2025 | Leicester
Rating 58 OR Unrated
29-03-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 86 OR Unrated
30-05-2026 | Carlisle
Rating -- OR 87
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:37.76

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Carlisle | 8f | Good To Firm | Class 2 2 11/2 87 -- -- 1.5 -- GREY - no timing read
30-04-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 1 8/1 -- -- 71 0 1:26.71 GOLD - faster than par
29-03-2026 Doncaster | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 4 1 10/1 -- 86 48 0 1:30.74 GOLD - faster than par
28-10-2025 Leicester | 6f | Soft | Class 4 5 9/2 -- 58 32 0.8 1:16.66 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+6lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +7.3 | TS edge -7.4. Benchmark fit: 1.7.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
We're Goosers Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 53.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR92
Speed110
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-3lb near mark
FFR 92 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
11 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.5% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score41.0raw
Agreement4/6
FFR92-3lb vs OR
SpeedScore110Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-3lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 7.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Ceiling edge 9.5 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 3
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Newmarket Strong run 15-05-2026
6 Newmarket Run faded 14-04-2026
1 Newcastle (AW) Finished well 07-11-2025
2 Southwell (AW) Solid effort 16-10-2025
2 Newmarket Solid effort 04-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

18
15-05-2026 | Newmarket Finished 1

Beat: Just A Girl (GB), Deluded (IRE), Magic Box (IRE) | Deluded (IRE) placed next/later, Just A Girl (GB) placed next/later

14-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 6

Beat: Raging Raj (IRE), Akho Mezzna (FR), Blue To Blue (IRE) | Blue Courvoisier (GB) won next/later, St Anton (IRE) won next/later | Akho Mezzna (FR) placed next/later, Arbaawy (GB) placed next/later

07-11-2025 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Kaindy (IRE), Fyreline (IRE), Inferno (GB) | Liquid Cooled (IRE) won next/later, Tarmonbarry Kid (IRE) won next/later | Inferno (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 41% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 38%
Class 58%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/5
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 1W / 2P Peak rating 102
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 54% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 35%
Class fit 56%
Mark room 43%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -3lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -3lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 95 | FFR 92 | Best FFR 92 | FFR edge -3
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Hugo Palmer
Jockey Oisin Murphy
Age 3
Draw 7
OR 95
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field +1.1
Rating 87
TS 82
Form 221-61
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 103.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
14-04-2026 Newmarket Good 6 1:38.88 98.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 59% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 34 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP4/11F OwnerIan Jones
Sire Starman Dam Nova Aquilae Damsire Sea The Stars
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent on far side of group - led over 1f out - soon 2 lengths ahead - reduced lead final 110yds - weakened and headed towards finish(op 5/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
15-05-2026 Newmarket 1 0 Neutral finish
14-04-2026 Newmarket 6 0.5 Run faded
07-11-2025 Newcastle (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
04-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 82 OR Unrated
16-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 80 OR Unrated
07-11-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 86 OR Unrated
14-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 87 OR 84
15-05-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 102 OR 84
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:38.88

Last 3 trip positions: 6

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
15-05-2026 Newmarket | 7f | Good | Class 4 1 4/11F 84 102 84 0 1:24.09 GOLD - faster than par
14-04-2026 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 4 6 2/1F 84 87 82 0.5 1:38.88 GOLD - faster than par
07-11-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 1/2F -- 86 76 0 1:26.88 GOLD - faster than par
16-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 2 11/10F -- 80 22 0.3 1:30.37 GOLD - faster than par
04-10-2025 Newmarket | 7f | Good | Class 2 2 13/2 -- 82 25 0.3 1:27.65 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-3lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge -1.7 | TS edge +3.6. Benchmark fit: 1.7.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Pathein Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 52.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR91
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-12lb below mark
FFR 91 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting profile, but FFR sits below today's mark Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score48.2raw
Agreement4/6
FFR91-12lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-6lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 2.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.1
Ceiling Par capable 1.5 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Goodwood Solid effort 23-05-2026
3 Goodwood Run faded 01-05-2026
5 Newmarket Run faded 11-10-2025
1 Doncaster Finished well 13-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

8
23-05-2026 | Goodwood Finished 3

Beat: Wechaad (IRE), Ironwill (IRE), New Monarch (IRE) | Ironwill (IRE) placed next/later, Strength Of Spirit (IRE) placed next/later

01-05-2026 | Goodwood Finished 3

Beat: Allegresse (GB) | Pacific Avenue (IRE) placed next/later

11-10-2025 | Newmarket Finished 5

Beat: Straight Up (IRE), Archer Royal (IRE) | Al Zanati (GB) won next/later | Hankelow (IRE) placed next/later, New Zealand (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 54% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 67%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/4
Best similar rating99
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 90
Good 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 106
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 99
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 61% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 88%
Mark room 34%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 50%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -6lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -6lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 103 | FFR 91 | Best FFR 97 | FFR edge -6
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ed Dunlop
Jockey Rossa Ryan
Age 3
Draw 26
OR 103
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field +9.1
Rating 98
TS 71
Form 15-33
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 24.30s recorded | FSP 106.0%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile3
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
13-09-2025 Doncaster Soft 1 1:40.63 100.6
11-10-2025 Newmarket Good To Firm 5 1:38.41 98.4
01-05-2026 Goodwood Good 3 1:39.61 99.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 38% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/2 OwnerK Balasuriya
Sire St Mark's Basilica Dam Excellent View Damsire Shamardal
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In touch with leaders - headway and challenging over 1f out - no extra final 110yds(op 7/2 tchd 3/1 and tchd 4/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 Goodwood 3 1 Fast finish
01-05-2026 Goodwood 3 1.2 Fast finish
11-10-2025 Newmarket 5 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 2 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
13-09-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 90 OR Unrated
11-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 99 OR Unrated
01-05-2026 | Goodwood
Rating 98 OR 103
23-05-2026 | Goodwood
Rating 106 OR 103
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:40.63 | 1:38.41 | 1:39.61

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 5 | 3

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip1:40.63 | Doncaster | 13-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +0.86s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 Goodwood | 7f | Good | Class 2 3 11/2 103 106 86 1 1:26.09 GOLD - faster than par
01-05-2026 Goodwood | 1m | Good | Class 2 3 100/30 103 98 71 1.2 1:39.61 GOLD - faster than par
11-10-2025 Newmarket | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 1 5 10/1 -- 99 83 0.3 1:38.47 GOLD - faster than par
13-09-2025 Doncaster | 1m | Soft | Class 2 1 28/1 -- 90 65 0 1:40.63 GREEN - within 1% of par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-6lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +15.3 | TS edge -7.4. Benchmark fit: 3.4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Tales Of Wisdom Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 51.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR93
Speed106
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-7lb below mark
FFR 93 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
106 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
109.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting profile, but FFR sits below today's mark Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score48.3raw
Agreement4/6
FFR93-7lb vs OR
SpeedScore106Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-7lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 5.7% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 5.7 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Newmarket Strong run 15-05-2026
5 Kempton (AW) Competitive 30-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 12-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

14
15-05-2026 | Newmarket Finished 1

Beat: Bayaann (GB), Queens Companion (GB), Quartermaster (IRE) | Bayaann (GB) won next/later, Cuff It (FR) won next/later | I Got Rhythm (GER) placed next/later

30-04-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Ray Mon Dough (GB), Golden Conqueror (GB), Flying Squad (IRE) | Langstone (GB) placed next/later, Makerstoun (IRE) placed next/later

12-12-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: John Harrison (GB), Rawson (GB), Big Moonrise (GB) | Aneirins Sword (IRE) won next/later, Nanas Boy George (IRE) won next/later | Big Moonrise (GB) placed next/later, Empirical (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 46% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Pace shape Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 103
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 90
Placement evidence 57% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 57%
Class fit 60%
Mark room 31%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -7lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -7lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 100 | FFR 93 | Best FFR 93 | FFR edge -7
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Charlie Appleby
Jockey William Buick
Age 3
Draw 8
OR 100
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field +6.1
Rating No rating yet
TS 62
Form 1-51
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-05-2026 Newmarket Good 1 1:36.84 96.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 56% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 34 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/4 OwnerGodolphin
Sire Blue Point Dam La Rosetta Damsire New Approach
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripHC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Raced wide - midfield - headway from over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - did well in the circumstances (jockey said gelding ran green on the bend)(op 3/1 tchd 10/3)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
15-05-2026 Newmarket 1 0 Fast finish
30-04-2026 Kempton (AW) 5 0.3 Fast finish
12-12-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 1 runs with an official OR. 1 earlier run was unrated.
12-12-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 90 OR Unrated
15-05-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 103 OR 95
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:36.84

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip1:36.84 | Newmarket | 15-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -2.93s | OR 95 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
15-05-2026 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 4 1 11/4 95 103 90 0 1:36.84 GOLD - faster than par
30-04-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 5 5/2 -- -- 62 0.3 1:27.29 GOLD - faster than par
12-12-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 8/11F -- 90 38 0 1:29.97 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-7lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +5.3 | TS edge -16.4. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Wise Prince Midfield
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 49.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR93
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-9lb below mark
FFR 93 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
108% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score49.5raw
Agreement5/6
FFR93-9lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-7lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Very steady 1.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.6
Ceiling Below requirement -3.4 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Sandown Run faded 28-05-2026
8 York Run faded 14-05-2026
3 Sandown Troubled run 24-04-2026
1 Nottingham Strong run 08-10-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

4
28-05-2026 | Sandown Finished 4

Beat: Nation's Hope (IRE), Golden Knight (IRE), Maximized (GB) | Talk Of New York (GB) placed next/later

14-05-2026 | York Finished 8

Christmas Day (IRE) won next/later

24-04-2026 | Sandown Finished 3

Beat: Action (IRE), Spyce (GB), Winding Stream (IRE) | Action (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 53% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 88%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 85
Good 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 104
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 52% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 35%
Class fit 100%
Mark room 31%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 34%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedTrip evidence still asks questionsCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidenceRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: -7lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -7lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 102 | FFR 93 | Best FFR 95 | FFR edge -7
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Thady Gosden
Jockey Toby Moore(7)
Age 3
Draw 15
OR 102
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field +8.1
Rating 104
TS 88
Form 1-384
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
28-05-2026 Sandown Good 4 1:41.87 101.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 68% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 21 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 68%; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP18/1 OwnerHood, Philipps & Wrigley
Sire Ghaiyyath Dam Militate Damsire Oasis Dream
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
HC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Took keen hold - in touch with leaders - not clear run and switched left over 2f out - soon went second - lost second final 110yds - no extra final 110yds(op 11/2 tchd 13/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
28-05-2026 Sandown 4 3.2 Run faded
14-05-2026 York 8 0.1 Neutral finish
24-04-2026 Sandown 3 1.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
08-10-2025 | Nottingham
Rating 85 OR Unrated
24-04-2026 | Sandown
Rating 104 OR Unrated
14-05-2026 | York
Rating 99 OR 104
28-05-2026 | Sandown
Rating -- OR 104
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:41.87

Last 3 trip positions: 4

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
28-05-2026 Sandown | 8f | Good | Class 1 4 18/1 104 -- -- 3.2 -- GREY - no timing read
14-05-2026 York | 1m2½f | Good | Class 1 8 10/1 104 99 75 0.1 2:12.31 GREY - below benchmark
24-04-2026 Sandown | 1m2f | Good | Class 1 3 6/1 -- 104 88 1.2 2:10.11 GREY - below benchmark
08-10-2025 Nottingham | 1m½f | Good To Soft | Class 2 1 9/2 -- 85 32 0 1:50.69 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-7lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 8

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +12.3 | TS edge +9.6. Benchmark fit: 7.7.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Crest Of Fire Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 46.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement3/6
FFR97
Speed104
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+6lb ahead of mark
FFR 97 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
104 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
107.1% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score30.5raw
Agreement3/6
FFR97+6lb vs OR
SpeedScore104Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+6lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 3.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 3.9 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Carlisle Solid effort 30-05-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 26-03-2026
2 Doncaster Solid effort 11-09-2025
3 Ffos Las Solid effort 13-08-2025
4 Ascot Competitive 12-07-2025
2 York Solid effort 28-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

14
30-05-2026 | Carlisle Finished 3

Beat: Princling (GB), Delinquent (IRE), Synners Kid (IRE)

26-03-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Superfortress (IRE), Powder Monkey (IRE), King Of Berkshire (IRE) | King Of Berkshire (IRE) won next/later, Regulus Black (GB) won next/later | Finlaggan (GB) placed next/later, Superfortress (IRE) placed next/later

11-09-2025 | Doncaster Finished 2

Beat: Royal Bodyguard (IRE), Boiling Over (IRE), Mogbbel (IRE) | Laureate Crown (IRE) won next/later, McMurray (IRE) won next/later | Boiling Over (IRE) placed next/later, Daydreama (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 55% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 58%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating79
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 82
Good 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 79
Fast 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 79
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 91
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 63%
Class fit 78%
Mark room 70%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 58%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +6lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +6lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 91 | FFR 97 | Best FFR 97 | FFR edge +6
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jack Channon
Jockey Tom Marquand
Age 3
Draw 5
OR 91
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field -2.9
Rating 91
TS 62
Form 432-13
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile3
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-09-2025 Doncaster Good To Soft 2 1:40.94 100.9
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 1:39.74 99.7
30-05-2026 Carlisle Good To Firm 3 1:37.84 97.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 65% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 65%; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerCrest Racing Ix
Sire Phoenix Of Spain Dam Chicita Banana Damsire Danehill Dancer
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Made all - nudged along over 2f out - went clear over 1f out - eased towards finish - easily

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Carlisle 3 0.5 Neutral finish
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Neutral finish
11-09-2025 Doncaster 2 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 3 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
28-06-2025 | York
Rating 79 OR Unrated
12-07-2025 | Ascot
Rating 79 OR Unrated
13-08-2025 | Ffos Las
Rating 74 OR 84
11-09-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 82 OR 83
26-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 91 OR 86
30-05-2026 | Carlisle
Rating -- OR 86
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:40.94 | 1:39.74 | 1:37.84

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1 | 3

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip1:39.74 | Southwell (AW) | 26-03-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -0.03s | OR 86 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Carlisle | 8f | Good To Firm | Class 2 3 100/30 86 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 1 2/5F 86 91 62 0 1:39.74 GOLD - faster than par
11-09-2025 Doncaster | 1m | Good To Soft | Class 3 2 6/1 83 82 71 0.3 1:40.95 AMBER - competitive
13-08-2025 Ffos Las | 7½f | Good | Class 5 3 9/4J 84 74 37 0.8 1:31.34 GOLD - faster than par
12-07-2025 Ascot | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 4 15/8 -- 79 68 0.5 1:26.86 GOLD - faster than par
28-06-2025 York | 7f | Good | Class 2 2 7/4F -- 79 70 2.2 1:25.76 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+6lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +9.3 | TS edge -16.4. Benchmark fit: 1.7.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Capall Rasa Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 46.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR86
Speed100
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-5lb below mark
FFR 86 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
108.4% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score28.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR86-5lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 7.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.2
Ceiling Par capable 0.3 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 3
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Newbury Troubled run 16-05-2026
4 Sandown Run faded 24-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 20-11-2025
1 Southwell (AW) Finished well 03-10-2025
8 Haydock Competitive 04-09-2025
3 Yarmouth Solid effort 15-08-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 1 subsequent placer(s)

3
16-05-2026 | Newbury Finished 9

Beat: Bourbon Blues (GB) | Pearl River (GB) won next/later

24-04-2026 | Sandown Finished 4

Beat: Suspended Sentence (FR), Goodwood Galaxy (GB), Look To The Stars (IRE)

20-11-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Aleen (GB), Galileo Island (IRE), Uncertainty (IRE) | Galileo Island (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 48% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 66%
Class 54%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating56
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 93
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 56
All-weather 2 2W / 2P Peak rating 93
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 57%
Mark room 46%
Stable setup 64%
Recent evidence 58%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -2lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 91 | FFR 86 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge -2
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tom Dascombe
Jockey Richard Kingscote
Age 3
Draw 30
OR 91
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field -2.9
Rating 93
TS 77
Form 811-49
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
20-11-2025 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 1:42.34 102.3
24-04-2026 Sandown Good 4 1:44.08 104.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 31% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 33 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP25/1 OwnerLaurence Bellman And Partner
Sire Footstepsinthesand Dam Point Reyes Damsire Competitive Edge
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Pressed leader - led narrowly over 2f out - headed over 1f out - no extra final 110yds(op 18/1 tchd 28/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
16-05-2026 Newbury 9 1 Run faded
24-04-2026 Sandown 4 2.2 Neutral finish
20-11-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 3 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
15-08-2025 | Yarmouth
Rating 56 OR Unrated
04-09-2025 | Haydock
Rating 58 OR Unrated
03-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 87 OR Unrated
20-11-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 93 OR 80
24-04-2026 | Sandown
Rating 93 OR 92
16-05-2026 | Newbury
Rating 89 OR 92
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:42.34 | 1:44.08

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 4

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip1:42.34 | Southwell (AW) | 20-11-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +2.57s | OR 80 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
16-05-2026 Newbury | 1m2f | Good | Class 2 9 25/1 92 89 69 1 2:06.61 GREY - below benchmark
24-04-2026 Sandown | 1m | Good | Class 2 4 25/1 92 93 77 2.2 1:44.08 GREY - below benchmark
20-11-2025 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 1 8/11F 80 93 63 0 1:42.34 GREY - below benchmark
03-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 11/2 -- 87 55 0 1:28.81 GOLD - faster than par
04-09-2025 Haydock | 7f | Good | Class 5 8 16/1 -- 58 7 0.5 1:33.09 GOLD - faster than par
15-08-2025 Yarmouth | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 18/1 -- 56 12 1.8 1:26.39 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +1.3 | TS edge -1.4. Benchmark fit: 0.8.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Conclave Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 45.8
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR94
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-3lb near mark
FFR 94 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score53.0raw
Agreement3/6
FFR94-3lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +2.8
Variance Very steady 3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Par capable 1.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Hamilton Strong run 03-05-2026
2 Kempton (AW) Solid effort 28-03-2026
1 Kempton (AW) Finished well 04-03-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

8
03-05-2026 | Hamilton Finished 1

Beat: Haayimm (IRE), Proud Nation (IRE)

28-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Lake Como (IRE), Lord Britain (GB), Sin City (GB) | Lord Britain (GB) won next/later | Sunset On Leros (GB) placed next/later

04-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Pentonville (GB), Picture Palace (IRE), Baron Wagstaff (GB) | Penny Time (IRE) won next/later, Pentonville (GB) won next/later | Picture Palace (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 53% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 79%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 95
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 99
Placement evidence 71% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 98%
Mark room 46%
Stable setup 64%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -2lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 97 | FFR 94 | Best FFR 95 | FFR edge -2
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Balding
Jockey P J McDonald
Age 3
Draw 29
OR 97
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field +3.1
Rating 95
TS 94
Form 121
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
04-03-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 1 1:41.28 101.3
28-03-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 2 1:38.42 98.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 57% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 46 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/8F OwnerHighclere Thoroughbred Racing - Cypress
Sire Sioux Nation Dam Anniemaymarie Damsire Cacique
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripHC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Made all - joined over 3f out - pushed along over 2f out - ridden and edged left inside final furlong - kept on well(op 6/5 tchd 6/4)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
03-05-2026 Hamilton 1 0 Fast finish
28-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 2 1 Fast finish
04-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 1 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
04-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 75 OR Unrated
28-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 99 OR Unrated
03-05-2026 | Hamilton
Rating 95 OR 97
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:41.28 | 1:38.42

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at trip1:41.27 | Kempton (AW) | 04-03-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.5s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
03-05-2026 Hamilton | 1m½f | Good | Class 2 1 11/8F 97 95 53 0 1:47.89 GREY - below benchmark
28-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 2 2 20/1 -- 99 94 1 1:38.39 GOLD - faster than par
04-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 1 9/2 -- 75 31 0.3 1:41.27 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 6

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +6.3 | TS edge +15.6. Benchmark fit: 6.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Richie's Rocket Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 43.8
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement3/6
FFR85
Speed97
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-9lb below mark
FFR 85 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.2% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score21.0raw
Agreement3/6
FFR85-9lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CMEDIUM
HandicapNear ceiling+3lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Very steady 2.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4
Ceiling Par capable 0.6 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 Goodwood Competitive 23-05-2026
5 Newmarket Run faded 14-04-2026
4 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 28-02-2026
1 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 20-11-2025
3 Newmarket Solid effort 31-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

6
23-05-2026 | Goodwood Finished 7

Beat: Hasbro Market (IRE), Strength Of Spirit (IRE), Shaman Champion (IRE) | Ironwill (IRE) placed next/later, Strength Of Spirit (IRE) placed next/later

14-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 5

Talk Of New York (GB) won next/later

28-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Sir Albert (IRE), Starfinch (IRE), Shahik (GB) | Ten Carat Harry (GB) won next/later

Today's conditions match 57% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 58%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/5
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 87
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 94
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 66%
Class fit 74%
Mark room 61%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 68%
5 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +3lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +3lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 94 | FFR 85 | Best FFR 97 | FFR edge +3
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ralph Beckett
Jockey Hector Crouch
Age 3
Draw 31
OR 94
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field +0.1
Rating 78
TS 72
Form 31-457
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.60s recorded | FSP 106.2%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 7f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile5
DEIC
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
28-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 4 1:24.88 84.9
14-04-2026 Newmarket Good 5 1:26.34 86.3
23-05-2026 Goodwood Good 7 1:26.69 86.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 57% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP16/1 OwnerPalmont
Sire New Bay Dam White Bullet Damsire Exceed And Excel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In touch with leaders - edged left and weakened over 1f out(op 7/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 Goodwood 7 0.1 Fast finish
14-04-2026 Newmarket 5 0.5 Run faded
28-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) 4 0.1 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
31-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 78 OR Unrated
20-11-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 90 OR Unrated
28-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 94 OR Unrated
14-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 78 OR 97
23-05-2026 | Goodwood
Rating 87 OR 96
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:24.88 | 1:26.34 | 1:26.69

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 5 | 7

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 Goodwood | 7f | Good | Class 2 7 16/1 96 87 69 0.1 1:26.69 GOLD - faster than par
14-04-2026 Newmarket | 7f | Good | Class 2 5 9/2 97 78 72 0.5 1:26.34 GOLD - faster than par
28-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 1 4 EvensF -- 94 54 0.1 1:24.88 GOLD - faster than par
20-11-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 1 30/100F -- 90 85 0 1:24.03 GOLD - faster than par
31-10-2025 Newmarket | 7f | Good | Class 4 3 22/1 -- 78 63 1.8 1:27.64 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+3lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge +7.3 | TS edge -6.4. Benchmark fit: 1.7.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Jamestown Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 37.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR86
Speed103
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-4lb below mark
FFR 86 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
103 Par 100
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score29.4raw
Agreement3/6
FFR86-4lb vs OR
SpeedScore103Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.5
Variance Very steady 4.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Ceiling edge 8.3 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Dundalk (AW) Strong run 26-05-2026
2 Naas Finished well 27-04-2026
2 Gowran Park Finished well 08-04-2026
4 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 20-03-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

22
26-05-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Nautic Star (IRE), Ribble Emperor (IRE), Rayzera (IRE) | Gilts (IRE) won next/later

27-04-2026 | Naas Finished 2

Beat: Manton Bay (IRE), Howsthebai (IRE), Son Of Beauty (IRE) | Bobby McGee (GB) won next/later, How'sthebai (IRE) won next/later | Manton Bay (IRE) placed next/later, Son Of Beauty (IRE) placed next/later

08-04-2026 | Gowran Park Finished 2

Beat: Harmani (IRE), Shaws Bay (IRE), Satoyama (GER) | Bobby McGee (GB) won next/later, Harmani (IRE) won next/later | Absoluteassignment (IRE) placed next/later, Kilmac Air (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 52% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 45%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Pace shape Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 87
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 84
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 74
Placement evidence 56% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 33%
Mark room 55%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +1lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 90 | FFR 86 | Best FFR 91 | FFR edge +1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer David Marnane
Jockey Luke McAteer
Age 3
Draw 25
OR 90
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field -3.9
Rating 84
TS 75
Form 4221
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
27-04-2026 Naas (IRE) Good 2 1:39.97 100
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 40% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 23 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP8/11F OwnerMRC International
Sire Ulysses Dam Posh Claret Damsire Royal Applause
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In rear - headway on outer 3f out - pressed leaders over 1f out - ran on inside final furlong - just held(tchd 6/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
26-05-2026 Dundalk (AW) 1 0 Neutral finish
27-04-2026 Naas 2 0.1 Fast finish
08-04-2026 Gowran Park 2 0.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 1 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
20-03-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 74 OR Unrated
08-04-2026 | Gowran Park
Rating 87 OR Unrated
27-04-2026 | Naas
Rating 84 OR 81
26-05-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating -- OR 84
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:39.97

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
26-05-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 1 8/11F 84 -- 82 0 1:26.21 GOLD - faster than par
27-04-2026 Naas | 1m | Good | -- 2 13/2 81 84 49 0.1 1:39.97 GREEN - within 1% of par
08-04-2026 Gowran Park | 7f | Soft | -- 2 6/1 -- 87 75 0.8 1:31.89 GOLD - faster than par
20-03-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 4 14/1 -- 74 43 0.3 1:27.94 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.7 | TS edge -3.4. Benchmark fit: -0.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Winding Stream Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 37.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR84
Speed92
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-5lb below mark
FFR 84 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
92 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score25.0raw
Agreement3/6
FFR84-5lb vs OR
SpeedScore92Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-5lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.4
Variance Very steady 3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.4
Ceiling Below requirement -3.8 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Sandown Run faded 24-04-2026
2 Kempton (AW) Solid effort 01-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Troubled run 03-10-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 0 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

3
24-04-2026 | Sandown Finished 6

Beat: Oceans Four (GB) | Action (IRE) placed next/later

01-04-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Magic Trip (GB), Claytons Kolatonic (GB), Fizzy Bear (IRE) | Balzac (GER) placed next/later

03-10-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Medyg (GB), Strong Voice (IRE), This Rib (GB) | Mr Nippy (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 44% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 91
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 81
Placement evidence 52% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 48%
Mark room 37%
Stable setup 64%
Recent evidence 58%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidenceRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: -5lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -5lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 89 | FFR 84 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge -5
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Richard Hughes
Jockey Rowan Scott
Age 3
Draw 24
OR 89
Avg OR 93.9
OR vs Field -4.9
Rating 91
TS 75
Form 1-26
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
01-04-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 2 1:40.76 100.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 43% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 55 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP80/1 OwnerAbdulla Al Mansoori
Sire Almanzor Dam Joie De Vivre Damsire Invincible Spirit
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
HC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Took keen hold - led - went clear after 3f - reduced lead 4f out - headed over 2f out - weakened over 1f out(op 66/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
24-04-2026 Sandown 6 1.2 Run faded
01-04-2026 Kempton (AW) 2 1.2 Fast finish
03-10-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 1 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
03-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 77 OR Unrated
01-04-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 81 OR Unrated
24-04-2026 | Sandown
Rating 91 OR 85
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:40.76

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time1m 39.77s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
24-04-2026 Sandown | 1m2f | Good | Class 1 6 80/1 85 91 75 1.2 2:11.15 GREY - below benchmark
01-04-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 2 11/4 -- 81 42 1.2 1:40.72 GREEN - within 1% of par
03-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 6/5F -- 77 27 0 1:30.61 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-5lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.7 and winning TS par is around 78.4. Runner versus par: rating edge -0.7 | TS edge -3.4. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Outback Heat Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 35.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Noelan Star Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 31.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bobby McGee Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 30.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Hilitany Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 25.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Wechaad Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 22.5
PRICE DEPENDENT
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

New Monarch Front-runner
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 19.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Exclusive Code Context profile
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 18.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

New Connection Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Charly Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Moonfall Context profile
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 16.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Victory Tip Late pressure closer
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lion Of Alba Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 8.7
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Intense Vision Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Vincenzo Peruggia Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 8.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Flushing Meadows Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 2.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Runman Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 1.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

5:10 | Leopardstown

5:10 | Leopardstown | 7f

| Good | BOYLE Sports Money Back If 2nd To SP Fav Handicap

Race Confidence 80 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAPace-pressure sprint
Chaos IndexHigh
Average OR67.517 rated runners | Top OR 72: Faoladh
Winning Time Par1m 29.26s3 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Pace-pressure sprint | chaos high
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Apache Outlaw leads the contextual model at 36.3
  • Moderate edge over next best: +3.8
  • Winning-time par: 1m 29.26s
Race shape Pace-pressure sprint Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders3
Prominent3
Midfield2
Hold-up4
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Apache OutlawRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 82.0 6-11-8-6-3-4 10-0 11 OR 70 64 -6lb 14/1 +2.5 Standard rest Up in trip Modest field 70% 77% 5/6 99 A Well in +20 PRICE DEPENDENT
Goal ExceededRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 74.0 3-10-2-6-8-5 9-10 4 OR 66 84 +18lb 9/2 -1.5 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 74% 69% 3/6 106 B Well in +23 PRICE DEPENDENT
Send HarryRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 59.2 6-10-2-1-3-3 10-1 12 OR 71 73 +2lb 18/1 +3.5 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 66% 72% 4/6 101 A Well in +16 PRICE DEPENDENT
Perfect BaseRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 46.5 3-11-2-6 10-1 10 OR 71 74 +3lb 14/1 +3.5 Long absence Same trip Modest field 56% 59% 2/6 96 D Workable +11 WATCH ONLY
FaoladhRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Limited sectional edge 31.3 1-3-6-4-9-10 10-2 14 OR 72 80 +8lb 4/1 +4.5 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 58% 62% 0/6 111 C Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
ReposadoRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 20.0 8-2-2-6-2-4 9-13 8 OR 69 68 -1lb 11/2 +1.5 Standard rest Big step up Modest field 57% 60% 2/6 91 D Well in +14 CAUTION PROFILE
LoingseoirRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 16.5 4-4-7-9-14-1 9-12 15 OR 68 70 +2lb 9/1 +0.5 Quick return Down in trip Modest field 72% 69% 2/6 93 B Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
Irish RumourRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 12.2 2-15-5-2-8-5 9-8 16 OR 64 73 +9lb 11/2 -3.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Modest field 58% 62% 2/6 81 D Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Buttermere RidgeRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 9.5 14-13-6-10-19 10-1 3 OR 71 60 -11lb 60/1 +3.5 Long absence Down in trip Modest field 58% 66% 0/6 87 D Well in +37 CAUTION PROFILE
Free SoloRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 9.4 6-11-7-11-13-12 9-10 5 OR 66 59 -7lb 16/1 -1.5 Quick return Trip move developing Modest field 65% 59% 2/6 93 D Workable +7 CAUTION PROFILE
Phoenix PaircRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 8.3 11-9-1-3-4-4 9-13 9 OR 69 70 +1lb 20/1 +1.5 Long absence Same trip Modest field 61% 65% 1/6 99 C Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
Mickey The SteelRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 7.5 7-3-13-2-3-3 9-9 7 OR 65 62 -3lb 11/1 -2.5 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 57% 55% 1/6 93 D Well in +17 CAUTION PROFILE
HexagonalRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 5.9 9-4-2-8-7-13 9-8 13 OR 64 49 -15lb 16/1 -3.5 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 54% 52% 2/6 96 E Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
NavagioRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 2.5 14-6-15-15-18-12 9-12 6 OR 68 67 -1lb 22/1 +0.5 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 53% 51% 2/6 92 E Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Eichan SanRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 1.4 5-8-11-4-19-7 9-6 2 OR 62 60 -2lb 11/2 -5.5 Standard rest Big step up Modest field 64% 57% 2/6 92 E Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
ArdeurRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Limited sectional edge 0.6 15-15-8-9-7-4 10-0 1 OR 70 60 -10lb 40/1 +2.5 Layoff check Down in trip Modest field 49% 53% 0/6 88 E Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
Caffu ZafeenRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile -1.2 18-6-6-6-6-6 9-6 17 OR 62 34 -28lb 28/1 -5.5 Standard rest Up in trip Modest field 58% 60% 1/6 94 D Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Apache Outlaw

Apache Outlaw profiles as a midfield with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A. Model alignment is 5/6. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Goal Exceeded

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Apache Outlaw Midfield
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 82.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR64
Speed99
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR-6lb below mark
FFR 64 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.1% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score36.3raw
Agreement5/6
FFR64-6lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+20lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.8
Ceiling Ceiling edge 8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Listowel (IRE) Competitive 31-05-2026
11 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 03-04-2026
8 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 20-02-2026
6 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 06-02-2026
3 Dundalk (AW) Solid effort 16-01-2026
4 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 17-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

20
31-05-2026 | Listowel (IRE) Finished 6

Beat: Alfred Tennyson (IRE), Mint Man (GB), Altimara (IRE) | Alfred Tennyson (IRE) placed next/later

03-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 11

Betsen (GB) won next/later, Justcallmepete (GB) won next/later | Accrual (GB) placed next/later, Carbine Harvester (FR) placed next/later

20-02-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 8

Beat: Little Queenie (IRE), Prairie Girl (IRE) | Clonmacash (GB) won next/later | Alfred Tennyson (IRE) placed next/later, Collective Power (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 70% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 57%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 11 0W / 2P Peak rating 96
Good 18 1W / 2P Peak rating 101
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 15 3W / 7P Peak rating 104
Placement evidence 77% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 63%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (A)10 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +20lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +20lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +20lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 70 | FFR 64 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +20
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Adrian McGuinness
Jockey Leigh Roche
Age 6
Draw 11
OR 70
Avg OR 67.5
OR vs Field +2.5
Rating 80
TS 81
Form -36806
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 14 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.1% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 23.09s recorded | FSP 100.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile10
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
07-08-2025 Chepstow Good To Soft 10 1:23.46 83.5
17-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 4 1:26.34 86.3
16-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 3 1:25.09 85.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 31% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 18 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerDooley Thoroughbreds & J Fairhurst
Sire Churchill Dam Focus Of Attention Damsire Intense Focus
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Slowly away - towards rear throughout (jockey said gelding accelerated the gate and was slowly as a result)(tchd 12/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) 6 0.5 Neutral finish
03-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) 11 1.5 Neutral finish
20-02-2026 Dundalk (AW) 8 0.1 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 5 runs with an official OR.
17-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 99 OR 96
16-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 95 OR 94
06-02-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 91 OR 93
20-02-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 82 OR 92
03-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 80 OR 90
31-05-2026 | Listowel (IRE)
Rating -- OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip10 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:23.46 | 1:26.34 | 1:25.09

Last 3 trip positions: 10 | 4 | 3

Approx winning time1m 29.26s
Last win at trip1:25.86 | Dundalk (AW) (IRE) | 18-12-2024

Last distance win context: vs par -3.4s | OR 94 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) | 6.5f | Good | -- 6 7/1 73 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
03-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 3 11 14/1 90 80 67 1.5 1:10.80 GOLD - faster than par
20-02-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 6f | Standard | -- 8 9/2 92 82 33 0.1 1:14.20 GOLD - faster than par
06-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 3 6 12/1 93 91 81 0.1 0:57.83 GOLD - faster than par
16-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 3 9/1 94 95 68 1.2 1:25.09 GOLD - faster than par
17-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 4 22/1 96 99 67 0.5 1:26.34 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+20lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 93 and winning TS par is around 61.7. Runner versus par: rating edge +2.0 | TS edge +19.3. Benchmark fit: 1.6.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Goal Exceeded Late pressure closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR84
Speed106
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+18lb ahead of mark
FFR 84 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
106 Par 100
FSP%even finish
98.6% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score32.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR84+18lb vs OR
SpeedScore106Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+23lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.8
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 17.4 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Cork Run faded 19-05-2026
10 Curragh Run faded 19-04-2026
2 Leopardstown Finished well 15-04-2026
6 Curragh Run faded 02-11-2025
8 Curragh Finished well 16-10-2025
5 Curragh (IRE) Run faded 04-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

18
19-05-2026 | Cork Finished 3

Beat: Brewing (GB), Gleneagle Bay (IRE), Send Harry (IRE) | Gleneagle Bay (IRE) won next/later

19-04-2026 | Curragh Finished 10

Beat: Smoke Them Out (IRE), Lahore Da King (IRE), Mickey The Steel (GB) | Jon Riggens (IRE) won next/later, L L Koulsty (IRE) won next/later | Earls (IRE) placed next/later, Hexagonal (IRE) placed next/later

15-04-2026 | Leopardstown Finished 2

Beat: Greek Flower (IRE), Sennas Girl (IRE), Chester Nimitz (IRE) | Anvika (IRE) placed next/later, Hugos Girl (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 74% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 51%
Pace shape 100%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Pace shape Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 12 1W / 3P Peak rating 85
Good 8 1W / 2P Peak rating 85
Fast 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 77
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 33%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (B)11 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +23lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +23lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +23lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 66 | FFR 84 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +23
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Adrian McGuinness
Jockey Adam Caffrey
Age 5
Draw 4
OR 66
Avg OR 67.5
OR vs Field -1.5
Rating 58
TS 70
Form 86-203
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 98.6% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile11
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-04-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Yielding To Soft 2 1:30.90 90.9
19-04-2026 Curragh (IRE) Soft 10 1:32.30 92.3
19-05-2026 Cork (IRE) Soft To Heavy 3 1:30.48 90.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 31% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 30 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: t; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeart | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP3/1J OwnerMs H McGuinness/Martin W White/Declan Sheridan/Breen White
Sire Iffraaj Dam Twinkle Twinkle Damsire Exceed And Excel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Towards rear - headway on near side of group 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 3/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-05-2026 Cork 3 1 Neutral finish
19-04-2026 Curragh 10 1 Neutral finish
15-04-2026 Leopardstown 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
04-10-2025 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 61 OR 72
16-10-2025 | Curragh
Rating 66 OR 70
02-11-2025 | Curragh
Rating 64 OR 68
15-04-2026 | Leopardstown
Rating 73 OR 67
19-04-2026 | Curragh
Rating 58 OR 67
19-05-2026 | Cork
Rating 73 OR 69
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip11 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:30.90 | 1:32.30 | 1:30.48

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 10 | 3

Approx winning time1m 29.26s
Last win at trip1:26.09 | Curragh (IRE) | 24-05-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -3.17s | OR 73 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-05-2026 Cork | 7f | Soft To Heavy | -- 3 3/1J 69 73 63 1 1:30.48 AMBER - competitive
19-04-2026 Curragh | 7f | Soft | -- 10 100/30 67 58 35 1 1:32.30 GREY - below benchmark
15-04-2026 Leopardstown | 7f | Yielding To Soft | -- 2 11/2 67 73 70 0.5 1:30.90 AMBER - competitive
02-11-2025 Curragh | 7f | Heavy | -- 6 14/1 68 64 33 0.2 1:32.95 GREY - below benchmark
16-10-2025 Curragh | 7f | Yielding | -- 8 9/1 70 66 25 0.2 1:31.99 GREY - below benchmark
04-10-2025 Curragh (IRE) | 6f | Soft To Heavy | -- 5 13/2 72 61 48 0.5 1:16.26 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+23lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 93 and winning TS par is around 61.7. Runner versus par: rating edge -20.0 | TS edge +8.3. Benchmark fit: 0.3.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Send Harry Prominent
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 59.2
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR73
Speed101
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+2lb near mark
FFR 73 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
107% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score24.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR73+2lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+16lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.2
Variance Very steady 2.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.7
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Cork Run faded 19-05-2026
10 Curragh Run faded 04-05-2026
2 Dundalk (AW) Strong run 12-11-2025
1 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Strong run 19-09-2025
3 Curragh (IRE) Strong run 30-08-2025
3 Curragh (IRE) Solid effort 16-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

17
19-05-2026 | Cork Finished 6

Beat: Usuario Amigo (GB), Dragon Of Malta (IRE) | Gleneagle Bay (IRE) won next/later

04-05-2026 | Curragh Finished 10

Beat: Rappell (IRE), Platino Bianco (IRE), Blue Anthem (GB) | I'm Spartacus (IRE) won next/later, Jon Riggens (IRE) won next/later | Amerilis (GB) placed next/later, Genesis (IRE) placed next/later

12-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Jazzy Dancer (IRE), Im Spartacus (IRE), Prime Sign (IRE) | Im Spartacus (IRE) won next/later, Jazzy Dancer (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 51%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating68
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 0W / 3P Peak rating 74
Good 5 0W / 2P Peak rating 68
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 4 1W / 2P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 51%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A)5 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +16lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +16lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +16lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 71 | FFR 73 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +16
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Miss Evanna McCutcheon
Jockey Jimmy Dalton(7)
Age 4
Draw 12
OR 71
Avg OR 67.5
OR vs Field +3.5
Rating No rating yet
TS 64
Form 312-06
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 107.0% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile5
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
19-09-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 1 1:27.00 87
12-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 2 1:26.11 86.1
19-05-2026 Cork (IRE) Soft To Heavy 6 1:31.68 91.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 33% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 30 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: ht; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearht | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP8/1 OwnerGolden Brown Syndicate
Sire Harry Angel Dam Send Up Damsire Fastnet Rock
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent and alone up the centre - joined main group after 2f - outpaced over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 18/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-05-2026 Cork 6 1.5 Run faded
04-05-2026 Curragh 10 1 Run faded
12-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) 2 0.3 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
16-08-2025 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 68 OR 67
30-08-2025 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 74 OR 67
19-09-2025 | Dundalk (AW) (IRE)
Rating 75 OR 67
12-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 79 OR 72
04-05-2026 | Curragh
Rating 68 OR 75
19-05-2026 | Cork
Rating 62 OR 74
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:27.00 | 1:26.11 | 1:31.68

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2 | 6

Approx winning time1m 29.26s
Last win at trip1:27.00 | Dundalk (AW) (IRE) | 19-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -2.26s | OR 67 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-05-2026 Cork | 7f | Soft To Heavy | -- 6 8/1 74 62 51 1.5 1:31.68 GREY - below benchmark
04-05-2026 Curragh | 6f | Good | -- 10 16/1 75 68 64 1 1:12.86 GOLD - faster than par
12-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 2 5/2F 72 79 72 0.3 1:26.11 GOLD - faster than par
19-09-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) | 7f | Standard | -- 1 4/1 67 75 60 0 1:27.00 GOLD - faster than par
30-08-2025 Curragh (IRE) | 6f | Good To Yielding | -- 3 7/1 67 74 67 0.3 1:11.70 GOLD - faster than par
16-08-2025 Curragh (IRE) | 6f | Good | -- 3 12/1 67 68 62 2 1:12.41 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+16lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 93 and winning TS par is around 61.7. Runner versus par: TS edge +2.3. Benchmark fit: 0.3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Perfect Base Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 46.5
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement2/6
FFR74
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+3lb near mark
FFR 74 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.6% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score25.5raw
Agreement2/6
FFR74+3lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+11lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.5
Variance Very steady 3.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7
Ceiling Par capable 2.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
-- Down Royal (IRE) Run faded 29-09-2025
3 Roscommon (IRE) Solid effort 19-08-2025
11 Naas (IRE) Troubled run 04-08-2025
2 Fairyhouse (IRE) Solid effort 09-07-2025
6 Punchestown (IRE) Competitive 17-09-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

20
19-08-2025 | Roscommon (IRE) Finished 3

Beat: Faberi (IRE), Ready To Mingle (IRE), Suerte (IRE) | Proxima Centauri (FR) won next/later, Syzygy (GB) won next/later | Ready To Mingle (IRE) placed next/later

04-08-2025 | Naas (IRE) Finished 11

Beat: Guarded (IRE), Dolly Hello (IRE), Saintly One (IRE) | Adrienne (IRE) won next/later, Cash Me (IRE) won next/later | Dolly Hello (IRE) placed next/later, Kakori (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/5
Best similar rating72
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 67
Good 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 72
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 85%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 50%
FFR vs OR gives +11lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +11lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +11lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 71 | FFR 74 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +11
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Miss Natalia Lupini
Jockey Paddy Harnett(5)
Age 2
Draw 10
OR 71
Avg OR 67.5
OR vs Field +3.5
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form /2034D-
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile3
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
17-09-2024 Punchestown (IRE) Good 6 1:29.75 89.8
09-07-2025 Fairyhouse (IRE) Good 2 1:27.22 87.2
29-09-2025 Down Royal (IRE) Yielding DSQ 1:31.25 91.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-1.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 17% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 262 days Freshness caution
Micro score -1.0 trainer RTF cold at 17%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; freshness caution after 262 days off; headgear declared: b; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearb | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP8/1 OwnerCondron Concrete Ltd
Sire Acclamation Dam Positive Step Damsire Footstepsinthesand
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
HC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
29-09-2025 Down Royal (IRE) -- 0.3 Run faded
19-08-2025 Roscommon (IRE) 3 0.5 Neutral finish
04-08-2025 Naas (IRE) 11 1.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 4 earlier runs were unrated.
17-09-2024 | Punchestown (IRE)
Rating 60 OR Unrated
09-07-2025 | Fairyhouse (IRE)
Rating 72 OR Unrated
04-08-2025 | Naas (IRE)
Rating 63 OR Unrated
19-08-2025 | Roscommon (IRE)
Rating 72 OR Unrated
29-09-2025 | Down Royal (IRE)
Rating 67 OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:29.75 | 1:27.22 | 1:31.25

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 2 | DSQ

Approx winning time1m 29.26s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
29-09-2025 Down Royal (IRE) | 7f | Yielding | -- -- 8/1 73 67 43 0.3 1:31.25 AMBER - competitive
19-08-2025 Roscommon (IRE) | 7½f | Good | -- 3 11/4 -- 72 54 0.5 1:33.57 GREY - below benchmark
04-08-2025 Naas (IRE) | 1m | Good To Yielding | -- 11 4/1 -- 63 53 1.2 1:44.24 GREY - below benchmark
09-07-2025 Fairyhouse (IRE) | 7f | Good | -- 2 5/1 -- 72 41 2.8 1:27.31 GOLD - faster than par
17-09-2024 Punchestown (IRE) | 7f | Good | -- 6 20/1 -- 60 50 3 1:30.02 GREEN - within 1% of par
Handicap Workable mark

+11lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 93 and winning TS par is around 61.7. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Faoladh Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 31.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Reposado Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 20.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Loingseoir Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 16.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Irish Rumour Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 12.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Buttermere Ridge Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Free Solo Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 9.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Phoenix Pairc Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Mickey The Steel Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 7.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Hexagonal Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 5.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Navagio Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 2.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Eichan San Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 1.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ardeur Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Caffu Zafeen Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

5:15 | Ripon

5:15 | Ripon | 8f

Class 6 | Good | Your Harrogate Ladies' Day Handicap

Race Confidence 76 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR51.29 rated runners | Top OR 55: Hatamoto
Winning Time Par1m 40.28s16 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3)Stalls Straight - Stands' side; Round - Inside; 1m4f - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-55
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Shes Got The Blues leads the contextual model at 28.9
  • Clearer top profile: +8.0 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 40.28s
Race shape Controlled tactical race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 1 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield4
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Shes Got The BluesRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 52.0 1-4-5-3-2-5 9-8 9 OR 54 65 +11lb 3/1 +2.8 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 52% 53% 1/6 105 D Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
Trucial PearlRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed 46.7 3-5-6-3-2-4 9-1 6 OR 47 76 +29lb 7/2 -4.2 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 59% 2/6 96 D Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
HatamotoRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 18.2 7-3-2-6-5-5 9-9 3 OR 55 39 -16lb 11/4 +3.8 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 53% 59% 1/6 96 D Well in +23 CAUTION PROFILE
Hood WinkRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 14.8 6-4-1-7-11-4 9-3 8 OR 49 67 +18lb 9/2 -2.2 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 59% 61% 1/6 94 A Well in +32 CAUTION PROFILE
Regal KnightRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 7.2 5-4-8-7-11 9-0 7 OR 46 64 +18lb 13/2 -5.2 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 55% 44% 2/6 89 E Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
Shimmering SpiritRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 5.4 11-6-4-4 9-8 5 OR 54 60 +6lb 25/1 +2.8 Layoff check Up in trip Weak field 50% 52% 0/6 91 E Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
A Boy Named MaryRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 5.2 8-10-7-10-4-9 9-4 2 OR 50 66 +16lb 20/1 -1.2 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 60% 0/6 91 E Well in +16 CAUTION PROFILE
Lc TiffenRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 4.7 9-11-5-6-5 9-8 1 OR 54 52 -2lb 50/1 +2.8 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 54% 50% 1/6 92 E Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
Raven's ViewRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 2.0 7-4-9-6-7-6 9-6 4 OR 52 67 +15lb 6/1 +0.8 Freshened up Big drop back Weak field 54% 48% 2/6 94 E Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Shes Got The Blues

Shes Got The Blues profiles as a midfield with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 1/6. Draw data is a slight caution. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Trucial Pearl

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Shes Got The Blues Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 52.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: draw data is a negative nudge.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement1/6
FFR65
Speed105
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+11lb ahead of mark
FFR 65 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
105 Par 100
FSP%even finish
99.1% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDraw data is a negative nudge
Model Score28.9raw
Agreement1/6
FFR65+11lb vs OR
SpeedScore105Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+26lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.5
Variance Very steady 3.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.1
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Leicester Strong run 08-06-2026
4 Windsor Run faded 25-05-2026
5 Bath Run faded 04-05-2026
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Solid effort 27-04-2026
2 Southwell (AW) Solid effort 09-04-2026
5 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 23-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

8
08-06-2026 | Leicester Finished 1

Beat: Demetris Mouflon (GB), Shark Two One (GB), Bungle Bay (IRE)

25-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 4

Beat: Marveling (GB), Beryls Girl (GB), Takeitorleaveit (IRE) | Fans Favourite (GB) won next/later | Buckland Belle (GB) placed next/later, My Old Mate (IRE) placed next/later

04-05-2026 | Bath Finished 5

Beat: Grand Echo (IRE), Resalah (IRE), Pams Sonnet (GB) | Sail On Sailor (GB) won next/later | Alice's Influence (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 52% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 33%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating38
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 50
Good 4 1W / 1P Peak rating 44
Fast 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 51
All-weather 7 0W / 2P Peak rating 50
Placement evidence 53% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 11%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 42%
7 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +26lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +26lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +26lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 54 | FFR 65 | Best FFR 80 | FFR edge +26
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tony Carroll
Jockey Kieren Fox
Age 3
Draw 9
OR 54
Avg OR 51.2
OR vs Field +2.8
Rating 42
TS 41
Form 523541
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 99.1% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 24.51s recorded | FSP 99.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile7
DEID
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 2 1:41.76 101.8
04-05-2026 Bath Good 5 1:41.79 101.8
25-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 4 1:42.14 102.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 58% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 10 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/4F OwnerIan Furlong
Sire Space Blues Dam Valtina Damsire Teofilo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Slowly into stride - in rear - headway over 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 10/3)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
08-06-2026 Leicester 1 0 Neutral finish
25-05-2026 Windsor 4 0.5 Run faded
04-05-2026 Bath 5 4.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 5 runs with an official OR.
23-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 41 OR 47
09-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 50 OR 46
27-04-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 42 OR 49
04-05-2026 | Bath
Rating 38 OR 49
25-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 49 OR 49
08-06-2026 | Leicester
Rating -- OR 48
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip7 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:41.76 | 1:41.79 | 1:42.14

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 5 | 4

Approx winning time1m 40.28s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
08-06-2026 Leicester | 7f | Good | Class 6 1 7/4F 48 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
25-05-2026 Windsor | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 6 4 11/1 49 49 46 0.5 1:42.14 AMBER - competitive
04-05-2026 Bath | 1m | Good | Class 6 5 7/2 49 38 27 4.5 1:41.79 AMBER - competitive
27-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 6 3 9/2 49 42 41 0.3 1:28.80 GOLD - faster than par
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 6 2 10/1 46 50 40 0.1 1:41.76 AMBER - competitive
23-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m1½f | Standard | Class 6 5 28/1 47 41 37 1.5 2:00.76 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+26lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65.9 and winning TS par is around 49.1. Runner versus par: rating edge -15.9 | TS edge -8.1. Benchmark fit: -3.4.

Model agreement 1/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Trucial Pearl Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 46.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR76
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+29lb ahead of mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.5% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score20.9raw
Agreement2/6
FFR76+29lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+29lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.7
Variance Very steady 1.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.8
Ceiling Below requirement -3.6 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Catterick Finished well 21-05-2026
5 Doncaster Run faded 02-05-2026
6 Pontefract Competitive 07-04-2026
3 Newcastle (AW) Finished well 19-03-2026
2 Chelmsford (AW) Finished well 12-03-2026
4 Wolverhampton (AW) Troubled run 27-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

16
21-05-2026 | Catterick Finished 3

Beat: Belling The Cat (GB), Musical Soldier (IRE), Hood Wink (GB) | South Coast Star (IRE) won next/later | Lope Y Linda (GB) placed next/later, Musical Soldier (IRE) placed next/later

02-05-2026 | Doncaster Finished 5

Beat: Go Teejay (GB), Vegas Virtue (IRE), Too Darn Spicy (GB) | Thornaby Annie (IRE) won next/later | Tekitoff (GB) placed next/later, Vega's Virtue (IRE) placed next/later

07-04-2026 | Pontefract Finished 6

Beat: Telling Time (GB), Antique Blue (IRE), Full Gas (IRE) | Miss Magic Dragon (GB) won next/later, The Tunguska Event (IRE) won next/later | Baldosa (IRE) placed next/later, Battenburg Belle (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 33%
Pace shape 55%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating46
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 35
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 46
Fast 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 47
All-weather 6 0W / 2P Peak rating 50
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 11%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 68%
FFR vs OR gives +29lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +29lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +29lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 47 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 76 | FFR edge +29
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Michael & David Easterby
Jockey Joanna Mason
Age 3
Draw 6
OR 47
Avg OR 51.2
OR vs Field -4.2
Rating 42
TS 41
Form 423653
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 104.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 7f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile4
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
19-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 3 1:28.97 89
02-05-2026 Doncaster Good To Firm 5 1:27.37 87.4
21-05-2026 Catterick Good 3 1:26.60 86.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 40% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 28 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: v
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2 OwnerMick & David Easterby 50 Racing
Sire Ardad Dam Emirates Rewards Damsire Dubawi
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Midfield - in touch with leaders over 2f out - weakened final 110yds - carried left towards finish(op 9/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
21-05-2026 Catterick 3 2.2 Fast finish
02-05-2026 Doncaster 5 0.8 Run faded
07-04-2026 Pontefract 6 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
27-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 38 OR 48
12-03-2026 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 50 OR 47
19-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 40 OR 47
07-04-2026 | Pontefract
Rating 35 OR 48
02-05-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 42 OR 47
21-05-2026 | Catterick
Rating 46 OR 47
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:28.97 | 1:27.37 | 1:26.60

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 5 | 3

Approx winning time1m 40.28s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
21-05-2026 Catterick | 7f | Good | Class 6 3 9/2 47 46 39 2.2 1:26.60 GOLD - faster than par
02-05-2026 Doncaster | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 6 5 4/1 47 42 17 0.8 1:27.37 GOLD - faster than par
07-04-2026 Pontefract | 6f | Good To Soft | Class 6 6 11/2 48 35 20 0.5 1:20.80 GOLD - faster than par
19-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 6 3 11/8F 47 40 32 0.3 1:28.97 GOLD - faster than par
12-03-2026 Chelmsford (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 6 2 12/1 47 50 37 0.2 1:27.00 GOLD - faster than par
27-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 4 7/2F 48 38 33 2.5 1:14.96 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+29lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65.9 and winning TS par is around 49.1. Runner versus par: rating edge -15.9 | TS edge -8.1. Benchmark fit: -3.4.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Hatamoto Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 18.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Hood Wink Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 14.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Regal Knight Front-end controller
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 7.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Shimmering Spirit Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

A Boy Named Mary Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lc Tiffen Closer
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Raven's View Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

5:20 | Lingfield

5:20 | Lingfield | 10f

Class 6 | Good | Sandy Is Going The Distance At 80 Classified Stakes (Div I)

Race Confidence 68 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR46.912 rated runners | Top OR 50: Belle Of Kt
Winning Time Par2m 09.53s2 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-50
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos medium
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Myna leads the contextual model at 28.9
  • Winning-time par: 2m 09.53s
Race shape Balanced context race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 1 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders2
Prominent3
Midfield1
Hold-up5
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
MynaRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 59.0 4-1-6-3-2-5 9-9 11 OR 49 77 +28lb 10/3 +2.1 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 62% 72% 2/6 103 B Well in +30 CAUTION PROFILE
Belle Of KtRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 56.5 3-1-3-2-3-8 9-9 9 OR 50 76 +26lb 11/4 +3.1 Layoff check Big drop back Weak field 58% 57% 3/6 96 E Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
QaaeaddRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 52.1 9-7-5-7-5-2 9-9 7 OR 50 30 -20lb 12/1 +3.1 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 57% 56% 3/6 92 E Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Pureis KingRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 14.9 8-8-10-11-9-1 9-9 6 OR 50 59 +9lb 10/3 +3.1 Freshened up Big step up Weak field 56% 53% 1/6 79 E Well in +53 CAUTION PROFILE
ShifraRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 11.2 2-8-16-9-12 9-9 3 OR 46 61 +15lb 4/1 -0.9 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 58% 54% 1/6 97 D Well in +65 CAUTION PROFILE
Pure TheoryRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 9.6 10-11-9-6-4-5 9-9 2 OR 44 54 +10lb 33/1 -2.9 Freshened up Same trip Weak field 58% 56% 3/6 85 D Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
HenfieldRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 8.2 9-10-8-5 8-11 5 OR 48 76 +28lb 5/1 +1.1 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 56% 61% 1/6 104 E Well in +28 WATCH ONLY
Dubai ImmoRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 5.0 12-8-5-10-7-8 9-9 12 OR 45 65 +20lb 9/1 -1.9 Layoff check Big drop back Weak field 64% 69% 2/6 95 A Well in +30 CAUTION PROFILE
Summer EveningRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 0.4 4-21-6-5-3-2 9-9 10 OR 47 71 +24lb 16/1 +0.1 Layoff check Same trip Weak field 54% 53% 0/6 92 D Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
High BoltageRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile -0.6 5-10-8-8-13 8-11 1 OR 46 69 +23lb 20/1 -0.9 Layoff check Big step up Weak field 54% 53% 0/6 92 E Well in +23 CAUTION PROFILE
RuizRun style: CloserFinish: Limited sectional edge -3.3 10-11-9-12 8-11 4 OR 40 21 -19lb 66/1 -6.9 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 55% 61% 0/6 86 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Harry Don't BiteRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile -4.8 10-7-6-9-9-7 9-9 8 OR 48 23 -25lb 40/1 +1.1 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 52% 54% 0/6 94 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Myna

Myna profiles as a front-runner with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is B. Model alignment is 2/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Belle Of Kt

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Myna Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 59.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no major model risk flagged.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR77
Speed103
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+28lb ahead of mark
FFR 77 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
103 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.4% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score28.9raw
Agreement2/6
FFR77+28lb vs OR
SpeedScore103Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+30lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.6
Ceiling Par capable 2.9 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Leicester Competitive 26-05-2026
1 Leicester Finished well 09-05-2026
6 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 25-03-2026
3 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 12-03-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Solid effort 23-02-2026
5 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 31-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

10
26-05-2026 | Leicester Finished 4

Beat: Beauty Generation (IRE), Staffordshire (IRE), San Francisco Bay (IRE) | Ottoman (IRE) placed next/later, Study Up (GB) placed next/later

09-05-2026 | Leicester Finished 1

Beat: Gert Lush (IRE), Oasis Sunrise (IRE), Clipsham Noble (IRE) | Clipsham Noble (IRE) won next/later, Oasis Sunrise (IRE) won next/later | Mooretown Lad (IRE) placed next/later, Versatile (IRE) placed next/later

25-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Celebrating Ethel (IRE), Hijo De La Luna (GER), Angels Call (IRE) | Desiderata (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 43%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on fast ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandFast
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on fast ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 66
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 68
Fast 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 67
All-weather 12 1W / 3P Peak rating 61
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 23%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (B)17 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +30lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +30lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +30lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 49 | FFR 77 | Best FFR 79 | FFR edge +30
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tony Carroll
Jockey William Carson
Age 5
Draw 11
OR 49
Avg OR 46.9
OR vs Field +2.1
Rating 46
TS 43
Form 523614
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 106.4% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 24.44s recorded | FSP 106.4%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile17
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
25-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 6 2:7.11 127.1
09-05-2026 Leicester Good To Firm 1 2:10.40 130.4
26-05-2026 Leicester Good To Firm 4 2:7.26 127.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 58% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 23 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: h; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearh | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2 OwnerGullick, McLaughlin, Ward & Ward
Sire Make Believe Dam Quicksand Damsire Footstepsinthesand
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Raced wide - held up in midfield - some headway on turn over 2f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 10/3 tchd 7/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
26-05-2026 Leicester 4 0.2 Neutral finish
09-05-2026 Leicester 1 0 Fast finish
25-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) 6 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 43 OR 48
23-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 51 OR 48
12-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 53 OR 48
25-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 46 OR 48
09-05-2026 | Leicester
Rating 55 OR 48
26-05-2026 | Leicester
Rating 52 OR 49
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip17 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 2:7.11 | 2:10.40 | 2:7.26

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 1 | 4

Approx winning time2m 09.53s
Last win at trip2:10.40 | Leicester | 09-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +0.87s | OR 48 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
26-05-2026 Leicester | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 6 4 9/2 49 52 44 0.2 2:07.26 GOLD - faster than par
09-05-2026 Leicester | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 6 1 8/1 48 55 32 0 2:10.40 GREEN - within 1% of par
25-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 6 3/1 48 46 30 0.3 2:07.11 GOLD - faster than par
12-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 3 16/1 48 53 23 1.5 2:14.19 GREY - below benchmark
23-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m1½f | Standard | Class 6 2 7/1 48 51 29 0.1 2:02.00 GOLD - faster than par
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 5 5/2C 48 43 9 2.5 2:10.01 GREEN - within 1% of par
Handicap Well handicapped

+30lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65 and winning TS par is around 50.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -12.0 | TS edge -7.5. Benchmark fit: -1.4.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Belle Of Kt Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 56.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR76
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+26lb ahead of mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.8% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score47.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR76+26lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWell handicapped+31lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.5
Variance Very steady 3.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.8
Ceiling Par capable 3.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 25-03-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 10-03-2026
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 02-03-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 17-02-2026
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 09-02-2026
8 Wolverhampton (AW) Competitive 16-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

11
25-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Pablo Prince (GB), Spaceage Love Song (IRE), My O My (FR) | Beaune (IRE) won next/later | Everest (GB) placed next/later, My O My (FR) placed next/later

10-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Late Claim (FR), Man Is King (IRE), Argentum (IRE) | Man Is King (IRE) won next/later

02-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Billy Bathgate (GB), Charlie Darling (FR), Arenas Del Tiempo (GB) | Charlie Darling (FR) won next/later | Billy Bathgate (GB) placed next/later, Queensland Boy (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 48%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 10 1W / 6P Peak rating 56
Placement evidence 57% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 29%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +31lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +31lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +31lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 50 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 81 | FFR edge +31
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer J S Moore
Jockey Taylor Fisher
Age 5
Draw 9
OR 50
Avg OR 46.9
OR vs Field +3.1
Rating 54
TS 48
Form 832313
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 5 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 102.8% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 25.33s recorded | FSP 102.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile2
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
02-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 3 2:8.28 128.3
15-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 12 2:9.69 129.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 30% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 85 days Standard layoff
Micro score -0.5 trainer RTF quiet at 30%
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/4 OwnerH Maye
Sire Postponed Dam So Belle Damsire Singspiel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Soon in touch with leaders - headway 3f out - disputed lead 2f out - led narrowly over 1f out - headed inside final 110yds - soon lost second and no extra(op 5/2 tchd 3/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
25-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) 3 1.2 Fast finish
10-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
02-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 3 1.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 5 of 6 runs with an official OR.
16-01-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 41 OR 50
09-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 52 OR 47
17-02-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 55 OR 47
02-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 54 OR 49
10-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 56 OR 49
25-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 54 OR 50
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:8.28 | 2:9.69

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 12

Approx winning time2m 09.53s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
25-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 3 11/4 50 54 29 1.2 2:35.05 GREY - below benchmark
10-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 1 9/2 49 56 44 0 2:40.95 GREY - below benchmark
02-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 2m½f | Standard | Class 6 3 11/4 49 54 1 1.2 3:43.75 GREY - below benchmark
17-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 6 2 7/1 47 55 33 0.2 3:04.65 GREY - below benchmark
09-02-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 3 14/1 47 52 48 0.1 2:39.29 GREY - below benchmark
16-01-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 8 28/1 50 41 17 0.1 2:42.29 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+31lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65 and winning TS par is around 50.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -9.0 | TS edge -2.5. Benchmark fit: -0.3.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Qaaeadd Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 52.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR30
Speed92
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-20lb below mark
FFR 30 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
92 Par 100
FSP%even finish
98.8% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score26.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR30-20lb vs OR
SpeedScore92Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+29lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.1
Variance Very steady 4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.4
Ceiling Par capable 1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Windsor Competitive 08-06-2026
7 Bath Troubled run 27-04-2026
5 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 03-03-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 27-02-2026
5 Salisbury Troubled run 26-07-2025
2 Leicester Run faded 17-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

16
08-06-2026 | Windsor Finished 9

Beat: Scammer (GB), Majestic Leo (IRE), Lawn Ranger (GB)

27-04-2026 | Bath Finished 7

Beat: Itsgottobefun (IRE) | Bohemian Breeze (IRE) won next/later, Moon Over The Sea (GB) won next/later | Endofastorm (IRE) placed next/later, Knightmare (IRE) placed next/later

03-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Moon Over The Sea (GB), Port Noir (GB), Al Baahy (GB) | Moon Over The Sea (GB) won next/later, Port Noir (GB) won next/later | Arlecchinos Rex (GB) placed next/later, Mooretown Lad (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 57% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 46%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 5 0W / 1P Peak rating 60
All-weather 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 57
Placement evidence 56% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 35%
Class fit 29%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 50%
FFR vs OR gives +29lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +29lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +29lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 50 | FFR 30 | Best FFR 79 | FFR edge +29
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Mark Usher
Jockey Callum Rodriguez
Age 4
Draw 7
OR 50
Avg OR 46.9
OR vs Field +3.1
Rating 30
TS 45
Form 5-7579
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 98.8% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 23.97s recorded | FSP 98.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
27-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 7 2:7.75 127.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 36% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 10 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: t
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeart | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP18/1 OwnerMatt Salaman & Friends
Sire Earthlight Dam Adutchgirl Damsire Dutch Art
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Towards rear - midfield over 6f out - headway when short of room against far rail under 3f out - soon lost ground - never dangerous(op 7/1 tchd 13/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 4.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
08-06-2026 Windsor 9 3 Neutral finish
27-04-2026 Bath 7 9 Fast finish
03-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 5 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 5 runs with an official OR.
17-07-2025 | Leicester
Rating 57 OR 55
26-07-2025 | Salisbury
Rating 48 OR 55
27-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 49 OR 54
03-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 57 OR 54
27-04-2026 | Bath
Rating 30 OR 52
08-06-2026 | Windsor
Rating -- OR 50
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:7.75

Last 3 trip positions: 7

Approx winning time2m 09.53s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
08-06-2026 Windsor | 11.5f | Good To Soft | Class 6 9 18/1 50 -- -- 3 -- GREY - no timing read
27-04-2026 Bath | 1m3½f | Firm | Class 6 7 17/2 52 30 24 9 2:31.95 GREY - below benchmark
03-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m1½f | Standard | Class 6 5 33/1 54 57 45 0.3 2:00.43 GOLD - faster than par
27-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 7 50/1 54 49 32 0.5 2:07.75 GOLD - faster than par
26-07-2025 Salisbury | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 6 5 4/1 55 48 36 0.8 1:45.19 GOLD - faster than par
17-07-2025 Leicester | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 6 2 7/2F 55 57 40 1.2 1:24.99 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+29lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65 and winning TS par is around 50.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -8.0 | TS edge -5.5. Benchmark fit: -0.7.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Pureis King Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 14.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Shifra Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 11.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Pure Theory Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 9.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Henfield Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dubai Immo Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 5.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Summer Evening Closer
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

High Boltage Closer
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ruiz Closer
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Harry Don't Bite Closer
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

5:35 | Ascot

5:35 | Ascot | 10f

Class 1 | Good To Firm | Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)

Race Confidence 60 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR10410 rated runners | Top OR 112: Oxagon
Winning Time Par2m 03.92s7 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.9, Centre 8.7, Far side 8.5, Round 7.6) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; Round - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos medium
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • My Love Is King leads the contextual model at 53.1
  • Moderate edge over next best: +5.8
  • Winning-time par: 2m 03.92s
Race shape Balanced context race Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 2 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders6
Prominent0
Midfield1
Hold-up1
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
My Love Is KingRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 2-2-1 9-2 6 OR 96 98 +2lb 11/1 -8 Freshened up Same trip Elite field 51% 51% 4/6 98 D Ceiling +2 PRICE DEPENDENT
Maho BayRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 52.0 4-1-1 9-2 1 OR 104 91 -13lb 7/1 0 Freshened up Big step up Elite field 44% 54% 4/6 96 D Stiff -5 CAUTION PROFILE
GenericRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 48.8 2-1-2 9-2 3 OR 102 99 -3lb 15/2 -2 Freshened up Big step up Elite field 46% 49% 3/6 104 C Stiff -3 CAUTION PROFILE
MorshdiRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 45.0 5-1-1-2 9-2 4 OR 110 91 -19lb 13/2 +6 Freshened up Big step up Elite field 49% 49% 3/6 95 D Stiff -10 CAUTION PROFILE
GlaciusRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 31.8 3-4-1 9-2 5 OR 104 94 -10lb 22/1 0 Long absence Big step up Elite field 53% 49% 2/6 94 C Stiff -9 CAUTION PROFILE
Oceans FourRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 28.1 7-1-3-1-9 9-6 10 OR 104 77 -27lb 60/1 0 Freshened up Same trip Elite field 39% 40% 1/6 88 E Stiff -3 CAUTION PROFILE
EndorsementRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 21.0 1-3-2-8-2-1 9-2 7 OR 107 80 -27lb 9/4 +3 Standard rest Same trip Elite field 39% 48% 3/6 107 D Stiff -5 CAUTION PROFILE
Mountain CatRun style: Front-runnerFinish: No clear style 19.1 1-1 9-2 9 OR 90 86 -4lb 10/1 -14 Freshened up Big step up Elite field 39% 48% 1/6 103 D Stiff -3 CAUTION PROFILE
ItalyRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 18.4 4-8-3-2-2-1 9-2 8 OR 111 94 -17lb 6/1 +7 Layoff check Same trip Elite field 49% 41% 3/6 92 E Stiff -14 CAUTION PROFILE
OxagonRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Limited sectional edge 2.0 12-6-1-5-5-2 9-6 2 OR 112 57 -55lb 7/1 +8 Standard rest Big step up Elite field 42% 45% 0/6 97 C Stiff -11 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit My Love Is King

My Love Is King profiles as a front-runner with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 4/6. Draw data adds a small confidence boost. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Maho Bay

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
My Love Is King Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR98
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+2lb near mark
FFR 98 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.7% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score53.1raw
Agreement4/6
FFR98+2lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapNear ceiling+2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 8.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.1
Ceiling Par capable 1.8 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Newmarket Run faded 01-05-2026
2 Newbury Solid effort 17-04-2026
1 Newcastle (AW) Strong run 17-11-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

7
01-05-2026 | Newmarket Finished 2

Beat: Archers Bay (IRE), Lyneham (IRE), Poseidons Warrior (IRE)

17-04-2026 | Newbury Finished 2

Beat: Joulany (IRE), Shabab Al Ahli (GB), Sahara King (GB) | Maltese Cross (FR) won next/later | Barrister (GB) placed next/later, Easwrith Destiny (GB) placed next/later

17-11-2025 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Ilraawi (GB), Arc La Shari (GB), A Boy Named Mary (IRE)

Today's conditions match 51% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 53%
Pace shape 25%
Track / draw 66%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Track / draw Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/3
Best similar rating103
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 97
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 103
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 81
Placement evidence 51% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 43%
Mark room 58%
Stable setup 70%
Recent evidence 42%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +2lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 96 | FFR 98 | Best FFR 98 | FFR edge +2
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Thady Gosden
Jockey Robert Havlin
Age 3
Draw 6
OR 96
Avg OR 104
OR vs Field -8
Rating 103
TS 104
Form 1-22
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile2
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
17-04-2026 Newbury Good 2 2:6.10 126.1
01-05-2026 Newmarket Good To Firm 2 2:4.13 124.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 66% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 48 days Standard layoff
Micro score +1.0 trainer RTF positive at 66%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 2/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerNormandie Stud Ltd
Sire Kingman Dam Fallen In Love Damsire Galileo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Raced centre - in touch with leaders - headway and joined winner over 1f out - no extra inside final 110yds(op 11/4 tchd 5/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
01-05-2026 Newmarket 2 2 Fast finish
17-04-2026 Newbury 2 0.3 Fast finish
17-11-2025 Newcastle (AW) 1 0 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 1 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
17-11-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 81 OR Unrated
17-04-2026 | Newbury
Rating 97 OR Unrated
01-05-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 103 OR 95
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:6.10 | 2:4.13

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 2

Approx winning time2m 03.92s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
01-05-2026 Newmarket | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 1 2 100/30 95 103 85 2 2:04.13 GREEN - within 1% of par
17-04-2026 Newbury | 1m2f | Good | Class 2 2 16/1 -- 97 104 0.3 2:06.10 AMBER - competitive
17-11-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 4/6F -- 81 -- 0 1:32.36 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 119.3 and winning TS par is around 96.1. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.3 | TS edge +7.8. Benchmark fit: 0.6.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Maho Bay Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 52.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR91
Speed96
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-13lb below mark
FFR 91 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
112.2% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score40.0raw
Agreement4/6
FFR91-13lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-5lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Ceiling edge 7.7 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Lingfield Competitive 09-05-2026
1 Newmarket Strong run 16-04-2026
1 Kempton (AW) Finished well 17-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

10
09-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 4

Beat: Isaac Newton (IRE), A Taste Of Glory (GER) | Isaac Newton (IRE) won next/later | Maltese Cross (FR) placed next/later

16-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 1

Beat: Amadeus Mozart (IRE), Guildmaster (IRE), Galiyan (GB) | Galiyan (GB) won next/later | Amadeus Mozart (IRE) placed next/later

17-12-2025 | Kempton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Veritable (GB), Outflank (IRE), Kindly Queen (IRE) | Mythical Valentine (IRE) won next/later | Kindly Queen (IRE) placed next/later, Outflank (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 44% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 56%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/3
Best similar rating97
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 103
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 97
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 54% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 64%
Mark room 37%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 58%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -5lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -5lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 104 | FFR 91 | Best FFR 99 | FFR edge -5
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Charlie Appleby
Jockey William Buick
Age 3
Draw 1
OR 104
Avg OR 104
OR vs Field 0
Rating 103
TS 87
Form 1-14
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
16-04-2026 Newmarket Good 1 2:3.89 123.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 56% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 40 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/8F OwnerGodolphin
Sire Dubawi Dam La Pelosa Damsire Dandy Man
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Made all - ridden 1f out - went clear final 110yds - comfortably(op 5/6)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
09-05-2026 Lingfield 4 0.8 Neutral finish
16-04-2026 Newmarket 1 0 Neutral finish
17-12-2025 Kempton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
17-12-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 86 OR Unrated
16-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 103 OR Unrated
09-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating 97 OR 104
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:3.89

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time2m 03.92s
Last win at trip2:03.89 | Newmarket | 16-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -0.03s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
09-05-2026 Lingfield | 1m3½f | Good To Firm | Class 1 4 11/8F 104 97 77 0.8 2:30.47 GREY - below benchmark
16-04-2026 Newmarket | 1m2f | Good | Class 2 1 11/10F -- 103 87 0 2:03.89 GOLD - faster than par
17-12-2025 Kempton (AW) | 1m3f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 1 5/6F -- 86 35 0 2:20.85 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-5lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 119.3 and winning TS par is around 96.1. Runner versus par: rating edge +3.7 | TS edge -9.1. Benchmark fit: 1.2.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Generic Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 48.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR99
Speed104
ConditionsCaution
PlacementCaution
FFR vs OR-3lb near mark
FFR 99 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
104 Par 100
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score36.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR99-3lb vs OR
SpeedScore104Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-3lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Very steady 4.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Par capable 4.3 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Chester Troubled run 07-05-2026
1 Yarmouth Strong run 11-04-2026
2 Kempton (AW) Solid effort 25-03-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

13
07-05-2026 | Chester Finished 2

Beat: Golden Story (IRE), Shayem (IRE), Flushing Meadows (USA) | Constitution River (FR) won next/later, Golden Story (IRE) won next/later | Shayem (IRE) placed next/later

11-04-2026 | Yarmouth Finished 1

Beat: My Mate Roger (IRE), Thunderhoof (GB), Sharp Romance (GB) | Sharp Romance (GB) won next/later | My Mate Roger (IRE) placed next/later, Thunderhoof (GB) placed next/later

25-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Franschhoek (GB), The Bureau Club (FR), Midnight Media (GB) | Freda (IRE) won next/later, Receipt (GB) won next/later

Today's conditions match 46% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 66%
Class 32%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 105
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 49% Intent unclear
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 10%
Mark room 43%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -3lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -3lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 102 | FFR 99 | Best FFR 99 | FFR edge -3
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Balding
Jockey James Doyle
Age 3
Draw 3
OR 102
Avg OR 104
OR vs Field -2
Rating 83
TS 62
Form 212
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 2 1:39.84 99.8
11-04-2026 Yarmouth Good 1 1:39.97 100
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 56% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 42 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP22/1 OwnerJ C Smith
Sire Kameko Dam Adalene Damsire Makfi
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Made virtually all - pushed along under 2f out - ridden clear inside final furlong - readily(op 11/8)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
07-05-2026 Chester 2 7 Fast finish
11-04-2026 Yarmouth 1 0 Neutral finish
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 2 0.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
25-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 78 OR Unrated
11-04-2026 | Yarmouth
Rating 83 OR Unrated
07-05-2026 | Chester
Rating 105 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:39.84 | 1:39.97

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1

Approx winning time2m 03.92s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
07-05-2026 Chester | 1m2½f | Good | Class 1 2 22/1 -- 105 103 7 2:07.71 GREY - below benchmark
11-04-2026 Yarmouth | 1m | Good | Class 4 1 9/4 -- 83 30 0 1:39.97 GOLD - faster than par
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 2 7/2 -- 78 62 0.2 1:39.83 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-3lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 119.3 and winning TS par is around 96.1. Runner versus par: rating edge -11.3 | TS edge -34.1. Benchmark fit: -3.6.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Morshdi Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 45.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR91
Speed95
ConditionsCaution
PlacementCaution
FFR vs OR-19lb below mark
FFR 91 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
95 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
109.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score47.3raw
Agreement3/6
FFR91-19lb vs OR
SpeedScore95Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-10lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 5.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.6
Ceiling Below requirement -1.9 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 York Run faded 14-05-2026
1 Newmarket Strong run 15-04-2026
1 York Strong run 11-10-2025
2 Sandown Solid effort 17-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

11
14-05-2026 | York Finished 5

Beat: Al Zanati (GB), Guildmaster (IRE), Wise Prince (IRE) | Christmas Day (IRE) won next/later

15-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 1

Beat: Poseidons Warrior (IRE), Bourbon Blues (GB), Isaac Newton (IRE) | Isaac Newton (IRE) won next/later, Wareeth (IRE) won next/later | Shayem (IRE) placed next/later

11-10-2025 | York Finished 1

Beat: Arabian Desert (GB), Valenday (GB), Joulany (IRE) | King Of Berkshire (IRE) won next/later | Arabian Desert (GB) placed next/later, Joulany (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 49% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 66%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Track / draw Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 81
Good 3 2W / 2P Peak rating 108
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 49% Intent unclear
Trip evidence 57%
Class fit 47%
Mark room 22%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidenceRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: -10lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -10lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 110 | FFR 91 | Best FFR 100 | FFR edge -10
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer William Haggas
Jockey Tom Marquand
Age 3
Draw 4
OR 110
Avg OR 104
OR vs Field +6
Rating 108
TS 95
Form 21-15
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-04-2026 Newmarket Good 1 1:50.79 110.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 66% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 35 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 66%; recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerSheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum
Sire Dubawi Dam Into The Mystic Damsire Galileo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent behind clear leader - disputed lead from 2f out - ridden and led clearly inside final furlong - soon edged right - kept on(op 10/1 tchd 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
14-05-2026 York 5 0.5 Neutral finish
15-04-2026 Newmarket 1 0 Fast finish
11-10-2025 York 1 0 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
17-09-2025 | Sandown
Rating 81 OR Unrated
11-10-2025 | York
Rating 87 OR Unrated
15-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 108 OR Unrated
14-05-2026 | York
Rating 105 OR 111
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:50.79

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time2m 03.92s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
14-05-2026 York | 1m2½f | Good | Class 1 5 100/30 111 105 80 0.5 2:11.84 GREY - below benchmark
15-04-2026 Newmarket | 1m1f | Good | Class 1 1 14/1 -- 108 95 0 1:50.79 GOLD - faster than par
11-10-2025 York | 1m | Good | Class 2 1 100/30 -- 87 47 0 1:41.48 GOLD - faster than par
17-09-2025 Sandown | 7f | Soft | Class 4 2 10/11F -- 81 40 1.2 1:35.73 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-10lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 119.3 and winning TS par is around 96.1. Runner versus par: rating edge -1.3 | TS edge -1.1. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Glacius Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 31.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Oceans Four Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 28.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Endorsement Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 21.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Mountain Cat Front-runner
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 19.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Italy Late pressure closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 18.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Oxagon Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

5:45 | Leopardstown

5:45 | Leopardstown | 8f

| Good | Bulmers Live Handicap

Race Confidence 76 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAPace-pressure sprint
Chaos IndexHigh
Average OR63.418 rated runners | Top OR 73: Local Lad
Winning Time Par1m 40.98s3 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Pace-pressure sprint | chaos high
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Bucaneer's Spirit leads the contextual model at 29.4
  • Winning-time par: 1m 40.98s
Race shape Pace-pressure sprint Hold-up profile in a projected pace-pressure race. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders3
Prominent0
Midfield8
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Bucaneer's SpiritRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 65.3 3-3-6-1-14-11 9-10 10 OR 66 76 +10lb 9/2 +2.6 Standard rest Trip move developing Modest field 66% 71% 4/6 98 A Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
Local LadRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed 54.0 15-3-8-3-3-4 10-3 2 OR 73 66 -7lb 25/1 +9.6 Freshened up Up in trip Modest field 64% 53% 3/6 91 E Well in +12 CAUTION PROFILE
Running PointRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 43.7 8-6-3-2-5 9-4 6 OR 70 70 +0lb 11/1 +6.6 Freshened up Trip move developing Modest field 56% 60% 2/6 95 E Well in +15 WATCH ONLY
Perfect JudgementRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 31.8 7-7-7-4-12-10 9-6 14 OR 62 67 +5lb 11/1 -1.4 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 66% 71% 4/6 108 A Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
Bay Of DreamsRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 26.8 9-14-12-2-2-1 9-6 7 OR 62 63 +1lb 20/1 -1.4 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 63% 64% 4/6 102 C Well in +18 WATCH ONLY
Ocean EchoRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 26.0 4-2-6-14 9-4 12 OR 70 64 -6lb 5/1 +6.6 Standard rest Up in trip Modest field 56% 54% 1/6 98 E Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
Cosmic FunkRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 25.8 2-7-4-5-10-8 8-13 16 OR 65 66 +1lb 5/1 +1.6 Standard rest Trip move developing Modest field 64% 51% 1/6 94 E Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
ZaraahmandoRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 24.9 6-13-4-5-1-3 9-13 3 OR 69 74 +5lb 14/1 +5.6 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 62% 69% 4/6 94 A Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
Battle BorneRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 19.4 2-15-17-10-11-1 9-8 1 OR 64 76 +12lb 14/1 +0.6 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 49% 54% 3/6 93 E Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
FleetfootsoldierRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 17.8 9-8-9-2-9-1 9-2 4 OR 58 42 -16lb 33/1 -5.4 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 66% 67% 4/6 92 A Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Go OutRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 15.4 9-6-7-7-8-2 9-8 8 OR 64 68 +4lb 12/1 +0.6 Freshened up Trip move developing Modest field 54% 50% 1/6 93 E Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
SmithfieldRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 10.9 12-4-15-7-8-4 9-10 18 OR 66 35 -31lb 17/2 +2.6 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 53% 54% 2/6 90 E Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
Sayfa FadRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 3.5 13-7-1-8-10-2 8-10 15 OR 52 54 +2lb 22/1 -11.4 Long absence Same trip Modest field 64% 69% 0/6 77 B Well in +37 CAUTION PROFILE
HeliogabalusRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 1.8 13-13-1-3-11-2 9-12 5 OR 68 58 -10lb 25/1 +4.6 Long absence Same trip Modest field 56% 61% 0/6 82 E Well in +19 CAUTION PROFILE
MillhoneRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 0.2 7-14-11-10-9 8-7 9 OR 59 57 -2lb 40/1 -4.4 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 53% 56% 0/6 62 E Workable +10 CAUTION PROFILE
Dawn FlameRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed -1.1 12-9-4-1-8-10 8-9 11 OR 61 36 -25lb 33/1 -2.4 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 57% 63% 2/6 88 C Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Navajo PointRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge -1.5 15-6-10-13-9 9-2 17 OR 58 51 -7lb 22/1 -5.4 Long absence Up in trip Modest field 56% 65% 0/6 70 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
VerhoyenRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge -5.6 8-6-4-11-14-18 8-12 13 OR 54 54 +0lb 9/1 -9.4 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 56% 50% 2/6 95 E Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Bucaneer's Spirit

Bucaneer's Spirit profiles as a midfield with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A. Model alignment is 4/6. Hold-up profile in a projected pace-pressure race

Main Danger Local Lad

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Bucaneer's Spirit Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 65.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR76
Speed98
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+10lb ahead of mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%even finish
99.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score29.4raw
Agreement4/6
FFR76+10lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+21lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +3.4
Variance Reliable 7.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.4
Ceiling Ceiling edge 10 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Limerick (IRE) Troubled run 10-06-2026
3 Roscommon Solid effort 18-05-2026
6 Leopardstown Competitive 15-05-2026
1 Cork Strong run 24-04-2026
14 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 29-10-2025
11 Curragh (IRE) Competitive 28-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

18
10-06-2026 | Limerick (IRE) Finished 3

Beat: Friars Gate (IRE), Notforalongtime (GB), Goofy Gander (IRE) | Java Wood (IRE) placed next/later

18-05-2026 | Roscommon Finished 3

Beat: Mercurial (IRE), Bella Colombia (IRE), Royal Impact (IRE) | Queen Aethelflaed (IRE) won next/later, Thrifty Of Digby (IRE) won next/later | Irish Rumour (IRE) placed next/later, Mercurial (IRE) placed next/later

15-05-2026 | Leopardstown Finished 6

Beat: Perfect Judgement (IRE), Proleek Prince (IRE), Rappell (IRE) | Faoladh (IRE) won next/later, Java Wood (IRE) won next/later | Battle Borne (IRE) placed next/later, Land Of The Giants (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 40%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating64
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 2W / 4P Peak rating 69
Good 10 1W / 2P Peak rating 86
Fast 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 79
All-weather 7 0W / 1P Peak rating 84
Placement evidence 71% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 20%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 68%
Proven trip profile (A)13 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +21lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +21lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +21lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 66 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +21
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue
Jockey Adam Caffrey
Age 5
Draw 10
OR 66
Avg OR 63.4
OR vs Field +2.6
Rating 68
TS 61
Form 0-1633
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 99.5% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile13
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-04-2026 Cork (IRE) Good To Yielding 1 1:42.04 102
15-05-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Good 6 1:42.06 102.1
10-06-2026 Limerick (IRE) Yielding 3 1:48.87 108.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 30% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 8 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 30%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerHoggies Bar Syndicate
Sire Invincible Spirit Dam Anne Bonney Damsire Jade Robbery
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Midfield - waiting for room over 2f out - headway when in the clear over 1f out - ridden to lead inside final 110yds - kept on well - always doing enough(op 4/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
10-06-2026 Limerick (IRE) 3 0.5 Fast finish
18-05-2026 Roscommon 3 0.8 Neutral finish
15-05-2026 Leopardstown 6 0.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 5 runs with an official OR.
28-09-2025 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 42 OR 62
29-10-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 30 OR 61
24-04-2026 | Cork
Rating 68 OR 60
15-05-2026 | Leopardstown
Rating 64 OR 66
18-05-2026 | Roscommon
Rating 67 OR 66
10-06-2026 | Limerick (IRE)
Rating -- OR 64
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip13 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:42.04 | 1:42.06 | 1:48.87

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 6 | 3

Approx winning time1m 40.98s
Last win at trip1:42.04 | Cork | 24-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.06s | OR 60 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
10-06-2026 Limerick (IRE) | 8f | Yielding | -- 3 7/1 64 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
18-05-2026 Roscommon | 7½f | Good To Yielding | -- 3 9/2 66 67 61 0.8 1:34.18 GOLD - faster than par
15-05-2026 Leopardstown | 1m | Good | -- 6 20/1 66 64 63 0.8 1:42.06 AMBER - competitive
24-04-2026 Cork | 1m | Good To Yielding | -- 1 5/1 60 68 61 0 1:42.04 AMBER - competitive
29-10-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 14 11/1 61 30 1 2 1:43.10 AMBER - competitive
28-09-2025 Curragh (IRE) | 1m2f | Yielding | -- 11 40/1 62 42 35 1.8 2:15.79 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+21lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 92.3 and winning TS par is around 83.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -24.3 | TS edge -22.3. Benchmark fit: -1.9.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Local Lad Late pressure closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 54.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR66
Speed91
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-7lb below mark
FFR 66 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
91 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.6% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score34.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR66-7lb vs OR
SpeedScore91Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWell handicapped+12lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Variable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +1.1
Variance Variable 10.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.2
Ceiling Ceiling edge 8.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
15 Curragh Troubled run 19-04-2026
3 Dundalk (AW) Solid effort 05-11-2025
8 Galway Run faded 27-10-2025
3 Roscommon (IRE) Troubled run 13-10-2025
3 Fairyhouse (IRE) Solid effort 06-06-2025
4 Kempton (AW) Run faded 29-03-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

17
19-04-2026 | Curragh Finished 15

Beat: Earls (IRE), San Aer (IRE) | Jon Riggens (IRE) won next/later, L L Koulsty (IRE) won next/later | Earls (IRE) placed next/later, Goal Exceeded (GB) placed next/later

05-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Zesty Belle (IRE), Spirit Of Indalo (IRE), La Flute (IRE) | Ready To Mingle (IRE) placed next/later

27-10-2025 | Galway Finished 8

Beat: Talk Show Host (IRE), Not So Profitable (IRE), La Campanella (IRE) | Seola (IRE) won next/later | Talk Show Host (IRE) placed next/later, Thru And Thru (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 40%
Pace shape 100%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Pace shape Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating80
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 5 0W / 3P Peak rating 85
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 92
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 53% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 20%
Mark room 88%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +12lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +12lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +12lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 73 | FFR 66 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +12
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Gerard O'Leary
Jockey Darragh O'Sullivan(7)
Age 4
Draw 2
OR 73
Avg OR 63.4
OR vs Field +9.6
Rating 52
TS 27
Form 3383-0
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 103.6% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile2
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
12-10-2024 Naas (IRE) Good To Yielding 2 1:45.66 105.7
29-03-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 4 1:40.09 100.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 33% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 60 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 No extra micro-intel adjustment
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP40/1 OwnerLance Bloodstock Limited
Sire Sea The Moon Dam Local Time Damsire Invincible Spirit
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

In rear throughout - hampered inside final furlong

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-04-2026 Curragh 15 0.5 Neutral finish
05-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) 3 0.8 Fast finish
27-10-2025 Galway 8 0.8 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 6 runs with an official OR.
29-03-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 86 OR 95
06-06-2025 | Fairyhouse (IRE)
Rating 80 OR 92
13-10-2025 | Roscommon (IRE)
Rating 39 OR 87
27-10-2025 | Galway
Rating 58 OR 85
05-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 80 OR 80
19-04-2026 | Curragh
Rating 52 OR 76
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:45.66 | 1:40.09

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 4

Approx winning time1m 40.98s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-04-2026 Curragh | 7f | Soft | -- 15 40/1 76 52 27 0.5 1:33.50 GOLD - faster than par
05-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 3 13/8F 80 80 33 0.8 1:27.62 GOLD - faster than par
27-10-2025 Galway | 7f | Heavy | -- 8 9/2 85 58 -- 0.8 1:38.40 GOLD - faster than par
13-10-2025 Roscommon (IRE) | 1m2½f | Soft | -- 3 5/2 87 39 -- 24 2:30.73 GREY - below benchmark
06-06-2025 Fairyhouse (IRE) | 1m2f | Good | -- 3 11/4F 92 80 66 3 2:7.79 GREY - below benchmark
29-03-2025 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 2 4 10/1 95 86 56 3 1:40.09 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+12lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 92.3 and winning TS par is around 83.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -40.3 | TS edge -56.3. Benchmark fit: -1.9.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Running Point Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 43.7
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance suitability is a caution (dei e).
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement2/6
FFR70
Speed95
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+0lb near mark
FFR 70 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
95 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.3% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score27.8raw
Agreement2/6
FFR70+0lb vs OR
SpeedScore95Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+15lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +2.7
Variance Very steady 3.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.9
Ceiling Below requirement -1.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Roscommon Competitive 11-05-2026
6 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 29-10-2025
3 Down Royal (IRE) Run faded 29-09-2025
2 Naas (IRE) Troubled run 24-08-2025
5 Leopardstown (IRE) Competitive 17-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

20
11-05-2026 | Roscommon Finished 8

Beat: Love Orchid (IRE), Alandownunder (IRE), Sunrise Angel (IRE) | Fortuity (IRE) won next/later | Elly Bay (IRE) placed next/later, Substance (IRE) placed next/later

29-10-2025 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Purely (IRE), Naughty Nina (IRE), Take A Bow (IRE) | Guardian Of Realm (GB) won next/later, What About Us (GB) won next/later | Anushka (IRE) placed next/later, Astronomically (IRE) placed next/later

29-09-2025 | Down Royal (IRE) Finished 3

Beat: Tharaka (IRE), Idiocracy (IRE), Matilda Joslyngage (IRE) | Apiary (IRE) won next/later, Fortuity (IRE) won next/later | Aquilla Star (IRE) placed next/later, Celestial Siren (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/5
Best similar rating75
Best ground bandTesting
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 68
Good 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 75
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 60% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 97%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 50%
FFR vs OR gives +15lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +15lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +15lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 70 | FFR 70 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +15
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jarlath P Fahey
Jockey Chris Hayes
Age 3
Draw 6
OR 70
Avg OR 63.4
OR vs Field +6.6
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 5236-8
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 24.51s recorded | FSP 106.3%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 7½f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance7½f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-05-2026 Roscommon (IRE) Good 8 1:34.95 95
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 56% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 38 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: tp
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeartp | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerMrs Catherine Harrison
Sire Elzaam Dam Lyrical Attraction Damsire Dandy Man
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-05-2026 Roscommon 8 1.8 Fast finish
29-10-2025 Dundalk (AW) 6 2.5 Fast finish
29-09-2025 Down Royal (IRE) 3 0.5 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
17-07-2025 | Leopardstown (IRE)
Rating 75 OR Unrated
24-08-2025 | Naas (IRE)
Rating 73 OR Unrated
29-09-2025 | Down Royal (IRE)
Rating 68 OR Unrated
29-10-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 69 OR 74
11-05-2026 | Roscommon
Rating 53 OR 72
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:34.95

Last 3 trip positions: 8

Approx winning time1m 40.98s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-05-2026 Roscommon | 7½f | Good | -- 8 6/1 72 53 39 1.8 1:34.95 GOLD - faster than par
29-10-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 6 10/1 74 69 26 2.5 1:29.09 GOLD - faster than par
29-09-2025 Down Royal (IRE) | 7f | Yielding | -- 3 2/1 -- 68 57 0.5 1:30.61 GOLD - faster than par
24-08-2025 Naas (IRE) | 7f | Good | -- 2 7/1 -- 73 -- 1.2 1:29.03 GOLD - faster than par
17-07-2025 Leopardstown (IRE) | 6½f | Good | -- 5 200/1 -- 75 58 0.5 1:23.68 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+15lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 92.3 and winning TS par is around 83.3. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Perfect Judgement Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 31.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bay Of Dreams Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 26.8
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ocean Echo Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 26.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Cosmic Funk Late pressure closer
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 25.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Zaraahmando Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 24.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Battle Borne Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 19.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Fleetfootsoldier Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 17.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Go Out Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 15.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Smithfield Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 10.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sayfa Fad Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Heliogabalus Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Millhone Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dawn Flame Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Navajo Point Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Verhoyen Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

5:55 | Southwell (AW)

5:55 | Southwell (AW) | 5f

Class 6 | Standard | VIP Enhancement Packages At Southwell Racecourse Classified Stakes

Race Confidence 84 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR46.111 rated runners | Top OR 50: Desert Champion
Winning Time Par58.75s75 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-50
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Sir Benedict leads the contextual model at 34.8
  • Clearer top profile: +9.0 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 58.75s
Race shape Controlled tactical race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent1
Midfield2
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Compare
Sir BenedictRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 4-3-4-5-2-6 9-9 2 OR 49 57 +8lb 15/8 +2.9 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 61% 66% 4/6 99 C Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Desert ChampionRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 37.7 6-8-7-8-8-2 9-9 10 OR 50 38 -12lb 7/2 +3.9 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 66% 62% 2/6 81 C Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Uncle SamRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 19.4 11-2-8-6-3-7 9-9 8 OR 50 55 +5lb 5/1 +3.9 Long absence Down in trip Weak field 56% 58% 0/6 87 E Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
Havin A FlyerRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 15.8 3-4-8-8-4-3 9-3 7 OR 50 46 -4lb 4/1 +3.9 Quick return Same trip Weak field 54% 52% 1/6 90 D Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Top StarRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 14.8 5-5-10-4-7-2 9-9 11 OR 45 49 +4lb 8/1 -1.1 Quick return Same trip Weak field 56% 56% 2/6 90 D Well in +34 CAUTION PROFILE
Bust A MoonRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 11.2 11-6-11-10-3-9 9-9 4 OR 48 28 -20lb 12/1 +1.9 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 58% 64% 1/6 95 D Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
Highfield JewelRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 8.8 9-9-6-4-6 9-9 3 OR 48 25 -23lb 16/1 +1.9 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 50% 48% 1/6 93 E Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
Dottie DiamondRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 5.8 4-6-6-9-10-13 9-9 9 OR 40 51 +11lb 10/1 -6.1 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 58% 62% 1/6 94 D Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Posh MaisieRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 2.2 9-8-12-5-7-7 9-9 6 OR 43 24 -19lb 33/1 -3.1 Quick return Down in trip Weak field 58% 62% 0/6 99 D Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Drish SamphireRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 1.5 8-9-5-12-13-11 9-9 1 OR 40 64 +24lb 25/1 -6.1 Long absence Down in trip Weak field 56% 58% 1/6 86 E Well in +32 CAUTION PROFILE
BlueawayRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced -0.2 12-6-6-6-5-5 9-3 5 OR 44 45 +1lb 25/1 -2.1 Freshened up Big drop back Weak field 55% 56% 2/6 68 D Well in +28 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Sir Benedict

Sir Benedict profiles as a closer with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 4/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Desert Champion

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Sir Benedict Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR57
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+8lb ahead of mark
FFR 57 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score34.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR57+8lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+31lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Very steady 4.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.2
Ceiling Par capable 3.4 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Wetherby Competitive 04-06-2026
3 Musselburgh Strong run 21-05-2026
4 Hamilton Troubled run 03-05-2026
5 Catterick Run faded 08-04-2026
2 Newcastle (AW) Troubled run 12-03-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Troubled run 24-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

12
04-06-2026 | Wetherby Finished 4

Beat: Dragon God (GB), Amerjeet (GB), Mrs Trump (IRE) | Crocus Time (IRE) won next/later

21-05-2026 | Musselburgh Finished 3

Beat: Invincible Crown (IRE), Ganesha (GB), Royal Duke (GB) | Canaria Queen (GB) won next/later | Royal Duke (GB) placed next/later

03-05-2026 | Hamilton Finished 4

Beat: Doon The Glen (GB), Ganesha (GB), Thunderstorm Katie (GB) | Doon The Glen (GB) won next/later, King Of The Jungle (IRE) won next/later | Hi Lord (GB) placed next/later, Midnight Lir (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 61% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 35%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating51
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 9 1W / 1P Peak rating 57
Good 8 1W / 3P Peak rating 64
Fast 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 49
All-weather 30 0W / 6P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 74%
Class fit 14%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 68%
Proven trip profile (C)49 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +31lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +31lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +31lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 49 | FFR 57 | Best FFR 80 | FFR edge +31
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ben Haslam
Jockey Andrew Mullen
Age 8
Draw 2
OR 49
Avg OR 46.1
OR vs Field +2.9
Rating 50
TS 43
Form 625434
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 16 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 102.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 23.83s recorded | FSP 102.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 5f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile49
DEIC
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
08-04-2026 Catterick Good 5 0:58.99 59
03-05-2026 Hamilton Good 4 0:59.75 59.8
21-05-2026 Musselburgh Good 3 0:59.89 59.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 45% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 14 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerVillage Racing
Sire Dandy Man Dam Kingdomforthebride Damsire Titus Livius
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Towards rear - headway 2f out - hampered inside final furlong - kept on well towards finish - bit short of room final strides (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run approaching line)(op 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
04-06-2026 Wetherby 4 0.5 Neutral finish
21-05-2026 Musselburgh 3 0.2 Fast finish
03-05-2026 Hamilton 4 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
24-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 35 OR 49
12-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 51 OR 47
08-04-2026 | Catterick
Rating 47 OR 48
03-05-2026 | Hamilton
Rating 50 OR 48
21-05-2026 | Musselburgh
Rating 53 OR 48
04-06-2026 | Wetherby
Rating -- OR 49
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip49 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 0:58.99 | 0:59.75 | 0:59.89

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 4 | 3

Approx winning time58.75s
Last win at trip1:1.10 | Hamilton | 21-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +2.35s | OR 46 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
04-06-2026 Wetherby | 5.5f | Good To Firm | Class 6 4 7/1 49 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
21-05-2026 Musselburgh | 5f | Good | Class 6 3 5/1 48 53 47 0.2 0:59.89 AMBER - competitive
03-05-2026 Hamilton | 5f | Good | Class 6 4 9/2 48 50 30 0.3 0:59.75 AMBER - competitive
08-04-2026 Catterick | 5f | Good | Class 6 5 9/2F 48 47 37 1.5 0:58.99 GREEN - within 1% of par
12-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 2 4/1 47 51 41 1.5 1:00.44 GREY - below benchmark
24-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 6 11/4F 49 35 32 1.2 1:00.21 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Well handicapped

+31lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65.6 and winning TS par is around 46.7. Runner versus par: rating edge -12.6 | TS edge -3.7. Benchmark fit: -3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Desert Champion Front-end controller
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 37.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Uncle Sam Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 19.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Havin A Flyer Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 15.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Top Star Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 14.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bust A Moon Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 11.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Highfield Jewel Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dottie Diamond Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Posh Maisie Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Drish Samphire Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Blueaway Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:00 | Lingfield

6:00 | Lingfield | 10f

Class 6 | Good | Sandy Is Going The Distance At 80 Classified Stakes (Div II)

Race Confidence 65 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR4512 rated runners | Top OR 50: Moonlit Cloud
Winning Time Par2m 09.53s2 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-50
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos medium
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Monks Mead leads the contextual model at 27.4
  • Moderate edge over next best: +4.3
  • Winning-time par: 2m 09.53s
Race shape Balanced context race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent2
Midfield4
Hold-up1
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Monks MeadRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed 65.0 8-2-3-4-2-1 9-9 12 OR 47 70 +23lb 9/1 +2 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 62% 67% 2/6 100 B Well in +33 CAUTION PROFILE
Hawaiian KingRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 49.0 7-10-6-8-4-4 9-9 3 OR 47 60 +13lb 22/1 +2 Freshened up Same trip Weak field 57% 57% 3/6 90 E Well in +30 CAUTION PROFILE
Moonlit CloudRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 47.5 9-5-4-7-8-6 9-9 10 OR 50 23 -27lb 11/2 +5 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 64% 63% 2/6 96 B Well in +24 CAUTION PROFILE
Pablo PrinceRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 21.3 7-6-4-2-6-2 9-9 4 OR 49 76 +27lb 6/1 +4 Freshened up Big drop back Weak field 58% 61% 2/6 96 D Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Rockafeller SkankRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 19.0 1-1-1-15-11-7 10-1 8 OR 25 67 +42lb 2/5 -20 Quick return Big step up Weak field 58% 66% 0/6 71 D Well in +43 CAUTION PROFILE
Pam's SonnetRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 9.7 6-8-8-6-5 8-11 1 OR 48 51 +3lb 20/1 +3 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 56% 51% 1/6 88 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Amalfi BluebellRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 9.5 7-7-5-10 8-11 7 OR 47 49 +2lb 33/1 +2 Long absence Big step up Weak field 56% 61% 0/6 72 E Well in +16 CAUTION PROFILE
Lady AiyanaRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 9.2 8-6-6-4-3-8 9-9 2 OR 47 46 -1lb 28/1 +2 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 58% 59% 0/6 53 D Well in +33 CAUTION PROFILE
Raise The StakesRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 9.2 9-10-10-6-9 8-11 6 OR 48 39 -9lb 20/1 +3 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 56% 62% 0/6 93 E Well in +30 CAUTION PROFILE
Sir PatchyRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 1.9 8-5-8-3-2-7 9-9 5 OR 44 72 +28lb -- -1 Freshened up Big drop back Weak field 56% 57% 0/6 96 -- Well in +37 CAUTION PROFILE
Reel PowerRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced -1.3 10-8-8-9-4-7 9-9 9 OR 43 54 +11lb 40/1 -2 Freshened up Trip move developing Weak field 57% 53% 2/6 85 E Well in +30 CAUTION PROFILE
Eager PucciniRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced -1.4 8-6-10-10-7-11 9-9 11 OR 45 59 +14lb 25/1 0 Freshened up Same trip Weak field 56% 53% 1/6 87 E Well in +24 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Monks Mead

Monks Mead profiles as a closer with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is B. Model alignment is 2/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Hawaiian King

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Monks Mead Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 65.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR70
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+23lb ahead of mark
FFR 70 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.3% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score27.4raw
Agreement2/6
FFR70+23lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+33lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Very steady 2.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5
Ceiling Par capable 1.8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Windsor Competitive 23-05-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 25-03-2026
3 Lingfield (AW) Troubled run 25-02-2026
4 Chelmsford (AW) Competitive 08-02-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 31-01-2026
1 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 21-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

11
23-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 8

Beat: Majestic Leo (IRE), Naughty Niall (GB), Read All About It (GB) | Guinness Lad (IRE) won next/later, Pride Of Nepal (GB) won next/later | Galactic Glow (IRE) placed next/later, Night Bear (GB) placed next/later

25-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Desiderata (IRE), Celtic John (IRE), Kaaress (IRE) | Desiderata (IRE) won next/later, Myna (IRE) won next/later

25-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Spirit Charmer (GB), Pyrrhic Dancer (IRE), Iftikhaar (IRE) | Nicely Curved (USA) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 43%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 8 0W / 6P Peak rating 67
Fast 12 1W / 5P Peak rating 67
All-weather 15 2W / 6P Peak rating 62
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 23%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (B)6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +33lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +33lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +33lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 47 | FFR 70 | Best FFR 80 | FFR edge +33
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Mark Usher
Jockey George Bass
Age 5
Draw 12
OR 47
Avg OR 45
OR vs Field +2
Rating 54
TS 44
Form 124328
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 104.3% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 23.71s recorded | FSP 104.3%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile6
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
08-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 4 2:8.86 128.9
25-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 2 2:6.49 126.5
23-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 8 2:8.58 128.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 36% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP17/2 OwnerRowdown Racing Partnership
Sire Outstrip Dam Abbotsfield Damsire Sakhee's Secret
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this courseDistance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Raced wide early - soon prominent - led after 1f - headed inside final 110yds - soon no extra(op 8/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 Windsor 8 0.1 Neutral finish
25-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) 2 1.2 Neutral finish
25-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) 3 1.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
21-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 55 OR 48
31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 53 OR 50
08-02-2026 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 48 OR 50
25-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 48 OR 49
25-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 54 OR 48
23-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 41 OR 48
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 2:8.86 | 2:6.49 | 2:8.58

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 2 | 8

Approx winning time2m 09.53s
Last win at trip2:07.51 | Lingfield (AW) | 21-01-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -2.02s | OR 48 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 Windsor | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 6 8 17/2 48 41 22 0.1 2:08.58 GOLD - faster than par
25-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 2 9/1 48 54 38 1.2 2:06.49 GOLD - faster than par
25-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 6 3 7/2 49 48 44 1.5 1:38.44 GOLD - faster than par
08-02-2026 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 4 3/1C 50 48 27 0.3 2:08.86 GOLD - faster than par
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 2 5/2 50 53 28 1.2 2:08.39 GOLD - faster than par
21-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 1 100/30 48 55 44 0 2:07.51 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+33lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65 and winning TS par is around 50.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -10.0 | TS edge -6.5. Benchmark fit: -1.4.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Hawaiian King Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 49.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR60
Speed90
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+13lb ahead of mark
FFR 60 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
9 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
109.2% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score23.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR60+13lb vs OR
SpeedScore90Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWell handicapped+30lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.0
Variance Reliable 5.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.2
Ceiling Par capable 0.3 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 Windsor Below best 07-05-2026
10 Bath Troubled run 05-04-2026
6 Kempton (AW) Competitive 02-03-2026
8 Lingfield (AW) Troubled run 10-02-2026
4 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 24-01-2026
4 Wolverhampton (AW) Troubled run 02-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

15
07-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 7

Beat: Read All About It (GB) | Bizou (GB) won next/later | Happy Chandler (GB) placed next/later

05-04-2026 | Bath Finished 10

Beat: Majestic Leo (IRE), Miss Moonshine (GB), Cherry Hill (GB) | Happy Chandler (GB) won next/later | Baynoona (IRE) placed next/later, Ciotog (IRE) placed next/later

02-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Celtic John (IRE), Marchetti (IRE), Charming Fellow (GB) | Cezarro (IRE) placed next/later, Dodging The Bullet (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 57% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 46%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating14
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 29
All-weather 8 0W / 1P Peak rating 63
Placement evidence 57% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 35%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +30lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +30lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +30lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 47 | FFR 60 | Best FFR 77 | FFR edge +30
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Michael Madgwick
Jockey Jack Dace(5)
Age 4
Draw 3
OR 47
Avg OR 45
OR vs Field +2
Rating 14
TS 42
Form 448607
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 109.2% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 23.94s recorded | FSP 109.2%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile2
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 4 2:8.57 128.6
07-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 7 2:12.00 132
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF -- Trainer recent-form data unavailable
Freshness 42 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP28/1 OwnerAura Racing, Dave Brown, Joe Lane
Sire Lord Kanaloa Dam Flutter Damsire Galileo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent early - in touch with leaders after 1f - short of room when weakening over 1f out(op 16/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 3.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
07-05-2026 Windsor 7 9.5 Neutral finish
05-04-2026 Bath 10 0.1 Neutral finish
02-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 6 0.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
02-01-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 60 OR 60
24-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 60 OR 59
10-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 56 OR 57
02-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 56 OR 55
05-04-2026 | Bath
Rating 14 OR 52
07-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 29 OR 49
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:8.57 | 2:12.00

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 7

Approx winning time2m 09.53s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
07-05-2026 Windsor | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 6 7 28/1 49 29 3 9.5 2:12.00 AMBER - competitive
05-04-2026 Bath | 1m | Good | Class 6 10 20/1 52 14 -- 0.1 1:45.15 GOLD - faster than par
02-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 6 6 8/1 55 56 39 0.8 1:40.77 GOLD - faster than par
10-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 8 18/1 57 56 16 1.2 2:36.97 GREY - below benchmark
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 4 12/1 59 60 19 2 2:08.57 GOLD - faster than par
02-01-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m1½f | Standard | Class 6 4 9/2 60 60 42 1.2 2:00.66 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+30lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65 and winning TS par is around 50.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.0 | TS edge -8.5. Benchmark fit: -0.7.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Moonlit Cloud Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 47.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no major model risk flagged.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR23
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-27lb below mark
FFR 23 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.5% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score21.1raw
Agreement2/6
FFR23-27lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+24lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small caution nudge

Variable; High bounce risk; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge -1.5
Variance Variable 9.6% volatility
Bounce High bounce risk Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.1
Ceiling Below requirement -1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Bath Steady run 05-06-2026
5 Windsor Run faded 04-05-2026
4 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 21-04-2026
7 Nottingham Run faded 23-10-2025
8 Chelmsford (AW) Run faded 02-10-2025
6 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 02-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

12
05-06-2026 | Bath Finished 9

Bobby Dassler (IRE) won next/later | Galactic Glow (IRE) placed next/later

04-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 5

Beat: Revich (IRE), Lady Of The Isles (IRE) | Seventy (GB) won next/later | Fast Steps (IRE) placed next/later, Revich (IRE) placed next/later

21-04-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Nuptown Girl (GB), Distinction (IRE) | Kaaranah (IRE) won next/later | Distinction (IRE) placed next/later, Karakula (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 39%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Has experience, but limited strong evidence
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandFast
Read Has experience, but limited strong evidence Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 9 2W / 2P Peak rating 82
Good 7 0W / 2P Peak rating 80
Fast 5 1W / 2P Peak rating 77
All-weather 9 0W / 2P Peak rating 73
Placement evidence 63% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 19%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 34%
Proven trip profile (B)22 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +24lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +24lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +24lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 50 | FFR 23 | Best FFR 74 | FFR edge +24
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Dean Ivory
Jockey Josephine Gordon
Age 8
Draw 10
OR 50
Avg OR 45
OR vs Field +5
Rating 54
TS 28
Form 87-459
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 9 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 105.5% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 28.37s recorded | FSP 105.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile22
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
23-10-2025 Nottingham Heavy 7 2:32.80 152.8
04-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 5 2:10.06 130.1
05-06-2026 Bath Good 9 2:20.41 140.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF -- Trainer recent-form data unavailable
Freshness 13 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP4/1J OwnerK T Ivory
Sire Sea The Moon Dam Apple Blossom Damsire Danehill Dancer
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Took keen hold - held up in rear - headway over 2f out - pressed leader over 1f out - weakened towards finish(op 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 16.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
05-06-2026 Bath 9 47 Neutral finish
04-05-2026 Windsor 5 0.2 Neutral finish
21-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 4 2 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 5 runs with an official OR.
02-09-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 36 OR 62
02-10-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 55 OR 60
23-10-2025 | Nottingham
Rating 20 OR 58
21-04-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 54 OR 56
04-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 54 OR 54
05-06-2026 | Bath
Rating -- OR 52
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip22 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 2:32.80 | 2:10.06 | 2:20.41

Last 3 trip positions: 7 | 5 | 9

Approx winning time2m 09.53s
Last win at trip2:20.14 | Bath | 06-05-2024

Last distance win context: vs par +10.61s | OR 70 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
05-06-2026 Bath | 10f | Good | Class 6 9 4/1J 52 -- -- 47 -- GREY - no timing read
04-05-2026 Windsor | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 6 5 11/1 54 54 28 0.2 2:10.06 GREEN - within 1% of par
21-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m1½f | Standard | Class 6 4 25/1 56 54 -- 2 2:05.83 GOLD - faster than par
23-10-2025 Nottingham | 1m2f | Heavy | Class 6 7 8/1 58 20 -- 13 2:32.80 GREY - below benchmark
02-10-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m2f | Standard | Class 6 8 12/1 60 55 30 1 2:7.13 GOLD - faster than par
02-09-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 6 6 16/1 62 36 26 15 2:40.93 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+24lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65 and winning TS par is around 50.5. Runner versus par: rating edge -11.0 | TS edge -22.5. Benchmark fit: -2.1.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Pablo Prince Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 21.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Rockafeller Skank Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 19.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Pam's Sonnet Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Amalfi Bluebell Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lady Aiyana Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Raise The Stakes Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sir Patchy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Reel Power Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Eager Puccini Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:10 | Ascot

6:10 | Ascot | 7f

Class 2 | Good To Firm | Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap)

Race Confidence 62 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNAPace-pressure sprint
Chaos IndexHigh
Average OR97.929 rated runners | Top OR 105: Room Service
Winning Time Par1m 25.60s9 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.9, Centre 8.7, Far side 8.5, Round 7.6) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; Round - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-105
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Pace-pressure sprint | chaos high
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Cosi Bello leads the contextual model at 66.9
  • Moderate edge over next best: +4.9
  • Winning-time par: 1m 25.60s
Race shape Pace-pressure sprint Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 9 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders7
Prominent5
Midfield5
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Cosi BelloRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 76.0 1-4-2-1-1 9-4 26 OR 97 97 +0lb 15/2 -0.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 62% 72% 5/6 100 C Ceiling +0 BACKABLE PROFILE
Great AcclaimRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 63.0 2-3-16-14-4-2 9-7 23 OR 100 100 +0lb 16/1 +2.1 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 64% 77% 5/6 108 A Ceiling +1 PRICE DEPENDENT
The Wizard Of EyeRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 62.0 1-9-3-11-6-1 9-11 29 OR 104 102 -2lb 12/1 +6.1 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 58% 75% 4/6 109 A Stiff -2 PRICE DEPENDENT
English OakRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 60.8 6-1-1-13-2-25 9-10 10 OR 103 95 -8lb 20/1 +5.1 Layoff check Same trip Strong field 53% 71% 4/6 96 B Stiff -5 CAUTION PROFILE
ApiaristRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 60.0 6-12-3-1-4-3 9-5 18 OR 98 93 -5lb 20/1 +0.1 Freshened up Down in trip Strong field 59% 73% 6/6 100 A Stiff -1 PRICE DEPENDENT
Royal VelvetRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 56.6 1-1-5-1-8-1 9-9 24 OR 102 100 -2lb 11/1 +4.1 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 57% 73% 5/6 96 A+ Stiff -2 PRICE DEPENDENT
The Lost KingRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 55.0 4-3-1-2-1-12 9-4 4 OR 97 91 -6lb 28/1 -0.9 Freshened up Big drop back Strong field 52% 60% 4/6 97 C Ceiling +1 PRICE DEPENDENT
The Fingal RavenRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 53.9 5-5-1-4-6-3 9-2 12 OR 95 77 -18lb 33/1 -2.9 Layoff check Down in trip Strong field 64% 60% 3/6 98 B Stiff -8 WATCH ONLY
Golden MindRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 52.0 8-4-2-7-1-20 9-10 22 OR 103 83 -20lb 25/1 +5.1 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 67% 75% 4/6 108 B Stiff -6 CAUTION PROFILE
Dance In The StormRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 52.0 5-1-10-3-2-4 9-3 2 OR 96 88 -8lb 11/1 -1.9 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 62% 77% 4/6 101 A Workable +8 WATCH ONLY
MezcalaRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 49.8 3-1-7-2-1-2 9-1 30 OR 94 90 -4lb 9/1 -3.9 Freshened up Down in trip Strong field 63% 74% 5/6 94 A+ Ceiling +2 PRICE DEPENDENT
StratusnineRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 49.0 2-2-5-2 9-2 13 OR 95 95 +0lb 25/1 -2.9 Standard rest Big step up Strong field 58% 75% 4/6 98 D Well in +23 WATCH ONLY
River KingRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 48.3 1-2-1-3-2-4 9-2 14 OR 95 87 -8lb 12/1 -2.9 Standard rest Big drop back Strong field 48% 55% 3/6 100 D Stiff -8 WATCH ONLY
VafortinoRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 44.1 8-7-10-5-4-7 9-8 20 OR 101 88 -13lb 33/1 +3.1 Freshened up Down in trip Strong field 59% 69% 4/6 98 A Stiff -3 WATCH ONLY
Defence MinisterRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 44.0 17-1-9-4-2-15 9-3 8 OR 96 83 -13lb 28/1 -1.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 49% 65% 4/6 103 B Stiff -2 WATCH ONLY
ElarakRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 41.0 4-4-1-6-7-1 9-10 31 OR 103 91 -12lb 12/1 +5.1 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 53% 58% 3/6 104 C Stiff -7 CAUTION PROFILE
Arctic DawnRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 40.0 1-3-5-8-1-5 9-7 3 OR 100 96 -4lb 16/1 +2.1 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 52% 60% 3/6 99 A Stiff -4 PRICE DEPENDENT
Storm StarRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 38.0 2-10-6-6-3-1 9-3 25 OR 96 90 -6lb 28/1 -1.9 Freshened up Down in trip Strong field 58% 68% 3/6 99 D Workable +9 WATCH ONLY
Fondo BlancoRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 37.3 4-1-2-2-7-2 9-10 6 OR 103 91 -12lb 16/1 +5.1 Long absence Down in trip Strong field 47% 54% 3/6 91 D Stiff -4 CAUTION PROFILE
Room ServiceRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 35.9 5-7-8-2-4-1 9-12 5 OR 105 95 -10lb 80/1 +7.1 Long absence Same trip Strong field 47% 57% 2/6 97 D Stiff -4 CAUTION PROFILE
MirskyRun style: ProminentFinish: Sustained speed 34.6 11-15-1-3-9-13 9-2 15 OR 95 81 -14lb 40/1 -2.9 Standard rest Down in trip Strong field 49% 52% 4/6 94 E Ceiling +3 CAUTION PROFILE
Brasil PowerRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 33.0 9-10-6-1-4-4 9-1 27 OR 94 85 -9lb 60/1 -3.9 Freshened up Big drop back Strong field 68% 65% 5/6 99 A Stiff -1 WATCH ONLY
So Darn HotRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 26.0 7-6-12-5-3-1 9-1 7 OR 94 90 -4lb 33/1 -3.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 51% 54% 3/6 106 D Ceiling +0 WATCH ONLY
PellitoryRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 23.4 16-13-5-5-8-7 9-2 19 OR 95 82 -13lb 60/1 -2.9 Freshened up Same trip Strong field 61% 69% 4/6 103 A Ceiling +1 WATCH ONLY
HickoryRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 21.0 6-18-2-1-2-5 9-2 17 OR 95 79 -16lb 22/1 -2.9 Standard rest Same trip Strong field 56% 62% 2/6 102 B Ceiling +0 WATCH ONLY
Blue BrotherRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 9.5 18-6-2-1-1-5 9-5 28 OR 98 80 -18lb 13/2 +0.1 Long absence Down in trip Strong field 48% 52% 0/6 96 D Stiff -10 CAUTION PROFILE
Rock Of CashelRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 8.2 12-11-11-6-19-6 9-2 1 OR 95 66 -29lb 33/1 -2.9 Standard rest Big drop back Strong field 51% 46% 1/6 89 B Stiff -17 CAUTION PROFILE
ColombierRun style: Front-runnerFinish: No clear style 4.3 1-10-16-6-6-3 9-3 16 OR 96 107 +11lb 10/1 -1.9 Standard rest Down in trip Strong field 50% 57% 0/6 91 D Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
NizamRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style -5.5 7-23-6-5-1-7 9-1 11 OR 94 91 -3lb 40/1 -3.9 Standard rest Down in trip Strong field 48% 49% 1/6 89 E Ceiling +0 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Cosi Bello

Cosi Bello profiles as a midfield with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 5/6. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Great Acclaim

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Cosi Bello Midfield
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 76.0
BACKABLE PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status BACKABLE PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR97
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+0lb near mark
FFR 97 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
100 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.4% 100% par
Best reasonStrong score and current evidence; price still matters Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score66.9raw
Agreement5/6
FFR97+0lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapNear ceiling+0lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 8.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.4
Ceiling Ceiling edge 9.9 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Haydock Troubled run 25-04-2026
4 Ascot Competitive 26-07-2025
2 Chester Finished well 28-06-2025
1 Kempton (AW) Finished well 21-05-2025
1 Chelmsford (AW) Finished well 18-04-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

29
25-04-2026 | Haydock Finished 1

Beat: Sarab Star (GB), Great Acclaim (GB), Cerulean Bay (IRE) | Cerulean Bay (IRE) placed next/later, Great Acclaim (GB) placed next/later

26-07-2025 | Ascot Finished 4

Beat: Talis Evolvere (IRE), Cogitate (IRE), Supido (FR) | Bullet Point (GB) won next/later, Dukes Command (GB) won next/later | Bopedro (FR) placed next/later, Cogitate (IRE) placed next/later

28-06-2025 | Chester Finished 2

Beat: Milford (GB), Perfect Part (IRE), Royalty Bay (IRE) | Mayday Malone (GB) won next/later, Royalty Bay (IRE) won next/later | Catalyse (IRE) placed next/later, Gallant (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 77%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Class Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/5
Best similar rating103
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 100
Fast 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 103
All-weather 2 2W / 2P Peak rating 94
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 100%
Mark room 52%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +0lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +0lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 97 | FFR 97 | Best FFR 97 | FFR edge 0
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Charlie Fellowes
Jockey Paddy Bradley
Age 4
Draw 26
OR 97
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -0.9
Rating 103
TS 97
Form 1124-1
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 103.4% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 23.31s recorded | FSP 103.4%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
21-05-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 1 1:24.11 84.1
28-06-2025 Chester Good 2 1:25.27 85.3
25-04-2026 Haydock Good To Firm 1 1:28.63 88.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 37% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 54 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.5 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/2F OwnerBedford House Racing Iiii
Sire Bated Breath Dam Fauran Damsire Shamardal
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In touch with leaders - waiting for room over 2f out - short of room and hampered rival when headway over 1f out - ridden to lead inside final 110yds - kept on(op 11/4 tchd 3/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
25-04-2026 Haydock 1 0 Fast finish
26-07-2025 Ascot 4 3 Fast finish
28-06-2025 Chester 2 0.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 3 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
18-04-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 88 OR Unrated
21-05-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 94 OR Unrated
28-06-2025 | Chester
Rating 100 OR 93
26-07-2025 | Ascot
Rating 95 OR 95
25-04-2026 | Haydock
Rating 103 OR 95
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:24.11 | 1:25.27 | 1:28.63

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2 | 1

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:28.63 | Haydock | 25-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +3.03s | OR 95 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
25-04-2026 Haydock | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 1 5/2F 95 103 97 0 1:28.63 GREY - below benchmark
26-07-2025 Ascot | 1m | Good | Class 2 4 13/2 95 95 42 3 1:41.94 GREY - below benchmark
28-06-2025 Chester | 7f | Good | Class 3 2 2/1F 93 100 77 0.2 1:25.28 GOLD - faster than par
21-05-2025 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 5 1 1/2F -- 94 86 0 1:24.11 GOLD - faster than par
18-04-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 2 1 11/2 -- 88 44 0 1:26.55 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Near ceiling

+0lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 5

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +9.1 | TS edge +12.2. Benchmark fit: 5.4.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Great Acclaim Prominent
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 63.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR100
Speed108
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR+0lb near mark
FFR 100 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
108 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.6% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score38.0raw
Agreement5/6
FFR100+0lb vs OR
SpeedScore108Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapNear ceiling+1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 7% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 14.7 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Ascot Finished well 09-05-2026
3 Haydock Strong run 25-04-2026
16 Doncaster Run faded 28-03-2026
14 Ascot Run faded 18-10-2025
4 Ascot Troubled run 04-10-2025
2 Ascot Strong run 06-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

13
09-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 2

Beat: Tribal Chief (FR), Golden Mind (IRE), Royal Zabeel (IRE) | Serengeti (FR) won next/later | Nostrum (GB) placed next/later, Ten Pounds (IRE) placed next/later

25-04-2026 | Haydock Finished 3

Beat: Cerulean Bay (IRE), Khafiz (IRE), Darkness (FR) | Cerulean Bay (IRE) placed next/later

28-03-2026 | Doncaster Finished 16

Beat: Anno Domini (GB), Tarkhan (GER), Mirabeau (GB) | Mirabeau (GB) won next/later, Rogue Diplomat (IRE) won next/later | Christian David (IRE) placed next/later, Eternal Force (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 71%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating104
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 105
Good 6 2W / 3P Peak rating 107
Fast 12 3W / 8P Peak rating 104
All-weather 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 97
Placement evidence 77% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 87%
Mark room 55%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)9 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +1lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 100 | FFR 100 | Best FFR 101 | FFR edge +1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton
Jockey Charles Bishop
Age 5
Draw 23
OR 100
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field +2.1
Rating 104
TS 99
Form 40-032
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 104.6% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile9
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
04-10-2025 Ascot Soft 4 1:31.49 91.5
25-04-2026 Haydock Good To Firm 3 1:28.71 88.7
09-05-2026 Ascot Good 2 1:24.98 85
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 40 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: v; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP12/1 OwnerG Owen
Sire Aclaim Dam Freedom Spirit Damsire Muhaarar
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In touch with leaders - steady headway over 3f out - pressed leaders over 2f out - led over 1f out - headed inside final furlong - lost second inside final 110yds - kept on(op 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
09-05-2026 Ascot 2 1 Fast finish
25-04-2026 Haydock 3 0.3 Fast finish
28-03-2026 Doncaster 16 3 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
06-09-2025 | Ascot
Rating 105 OR 97
04-10-2025 | Ascot
Rating 104 OR 100
18-10-2025 | Ascot
Rating 91 OR 100
28-03-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 88 OR 100
25-04-2026 | Haydock
Rating 104 OR 98
09-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 107 OR 98
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:31.49 | 1:28.71 | 1:24.98

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 3 | 2

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:21.24 | Chepstow | 07-08-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -4.36s | OR 94 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
09-05-2026 Ascot | 7f | Good | Class 2 2 12/1 98 107 99 1 1:24.98 GOLD - faster than par
25-04-2026 Haydock | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 3 6/1 98 104 99 0.3 1:28.71 GREY - below benchmark
28-03-2026 Doncaster | 1m | Good To Soft | Class 2 16 50/1 100 88 71 3 1:42.80 GREY - below benchmark
18-10-2025 Ascot | 1m | Good | Class 2 14 25/1 100 91 70 1 1:40.72 GREY - below benchmark
04-10-2025 Ascot | 7f | Soft | Class 2 4 16/1 100 104 86 0.5 1:31.49 GREY - below benchmark
06-09-2025 Ascot | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 2 2 11/1 97 105 83 1.5 1:27.29 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Near ceiling

+1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +6.1 | TS edge +14.2. Benchmark fit: 4.2.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
The Wizard Of Eye Distance specialist
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 62.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR102
Speed109
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-2lb near mark
FFR 102 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
109 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.5% 100% par
Best reasonRecent form and class support, but not a full-stake profile Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score51.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR102-2lb vs OR
SpeedScore109Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapMark looks stiff-2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 3.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.2
Ceiling Ceiling edge 9 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Ascot Strong run 09-05-2026
9 Kempton (AW) Competitive 03-11-2025
3 Newcastle (AW) Strong run 28-09-2025
11 Ascot Run faded 07-09-2024
6 Ascot Finished well 22-06-2024
1 Ascot Strong run 11-05-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

30
09-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 1

Beat: Great Acclaim (GB), Tribal Chief (FR), Golden Mind (IRE) | Serengeti (FR) won next/later | Nostrum (GB) placed next/later, Ten Pounds (IRE) placed next/later

03-11-2025 | Kempton (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Real Gain (IRE), Streets Of Gold (IRE), Dutch Kingdom (IRE) | Chancellor (GB) won next/later, Kingdom Come (IRE) won next/later | Back In Black (IRE) placed next/later

28-09-2025 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Telemark (IRE), Streets Of Gold (IRE), Grand Traverse (IRE) | Golden Mind (IRE) won next/later, Havana Pusey (GB) won next/later | Akkadian Thunder (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 65%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating104
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 104
Good 4 2W / 2P Peak rating 111
Fast 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 104
All-weather 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 111
Placement evidence 75% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 86%
Mark room 46%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)13 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -2lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 104 | FFR 102 | Best FFR 102 | FFR edge -2
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tom Clover
Jockey Neil Callan
Age 7
Draw 29
OR 104
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field +6.1
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 0/39-1
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile13
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
28-09-2025 Newcastle (AW) Standard 3 1:26.97 87
03-11-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 9 1:25.80 85.8
09-05-2026 Ascot Good 1 1:24.81 84.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 42% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 40 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP20/1 OwnerR Humphrey O Humphrey A Favell
Sire Galileo Gold Dam Prom Dress Damsire Mount Nelson
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
09-05-2026 Ascot 1 0 Fast finish
03-11-2025 Kempton (AW) 9 0.8 Neutral finish
28-09-2025 Newcastle (AW) 3 1 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
11-05-2024 | Ascot
Rating 109 OR 99
22-06-2024 | Ascot
Rating 104 OR 102
07-09-2024 | Ascot
Rating 95 OR 102
28-09-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 106 OR 100
03-11-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 90 OR 100
09-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 111 OR 99
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip13 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:26.97 | 1:25.80 | 1:24.81

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 9 | 1

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:24.81 | Ascot | 09-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -0.79s | OR 99 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
09-05-2026 Ascot | 7f | Good | Class 2 1 20/1 99 111 102 0 1:24.81 GOLD - faster than par
03-11-2025 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 2 9 18/1 100 90 70 0.8 1:25.54 GOLD - faster than par
28-09-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 2 3 13/2 100 106 73 1 1:27.03 AMBER - competitive
07-09-2024 Ascot | 7f | Soft | Class 2 11 9/2F 102 95 70 2 1:31.28 GREY - below benchmark
22-06-2024 Ascot | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 1 6 11/1 102 104 88 0.3 1:13.15 GOLD - faster than par
11-05-2024 Ascot | 7f | Good | Class 2 1 7/1 99 109 72 0 1:26.58 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +13.1. Benchmark fit: 3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
English Oak Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 60.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR95
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-8lb below mark
FFR 95 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.6% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting profile, but FFR sits below today's mark Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score45.7raw
Agreement4/6
FFR95-8lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapMark looks stiff-5lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Reliable 6.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.1
Ceiling Ceiling edge 9.9 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Meydan Finished well 06-03-2026
1 Meydan Strong run 13-02-2026
1 Meydan Troubled run 16-01-2026
13 Goodwood Competitive 29-07-2025
2 Hamilton Strong run 17-07-2025
25 Ascot Run faded 19-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

14
06-03-2026 | Meydan Finished 6

Beat: Vafortino (IRE), Witness Stand (GB), Khanjar (IRE) | Fort Payne (FR) won next/later | Andreas Vesalius (IRE) placed next/later, Audience (GB) placed next/later

13-02-2026 | Meydan Finished 1

Beat: Hallasan (GB), Cavallo Bay (GB), Bombay Bazaar (GB) | Native Approach (GB) won next/later | Cavallo Bay (GB) placed next/later, Indian Springs (IRE) placed next/later

16-01-2026 | Meydan Finished 1

Beat: Laneqash (GB), First Sight (GB), War Socks (GB) | Mostabshir (GB) won next/later, Vercors (IRE) won next/later | War Socks (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 53% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 71%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating61
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 1W / 2P Peak rating 109
Good 10 2W / 6P Peak rating 106
Fast 7 2W / 2P Peak rating 117
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 71% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 85%
Mark room 37%
Stable setup 64%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (B)12 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -5lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -5lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 103 | FFR 95 | Best FFR 98 | FFR edge -5
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Hamad Al Jehani
Jockey Faleh Bughenaim
Age 6
Draw 10
OR 103
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field +5.1
Rating 102
TS 94
Form 20-116
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile12
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
19-06-2025 Ascot Good To Firm 25 1:27.28 87.3
13-02-2026 Meydan (UAE) Good 1 1:23.84 83.8
06-03-2026 Meydan (UAE) Good 6 1:23.69 83.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 104 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.5 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2 OwnerWathnan Racing
Sire Wootton Bassett Dam Forest Crown Damsire Royal Applause
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Towards rear - headway over 1f out - kept on final 110yds - not pace to challenge

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
06-03-2026 Meydan 6 0.3 Fast finish
13-02-2026 Meydan 1 0 Fast finish
16-01-2026 Meydan 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
19-06-2025 | Ascot
Rating 61 OR 100
17-07-2025 | Hamilton
Rating 103 OR 97
29-07-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 89 OR 97
16-01-2026 | Meydan
Rating 103 OR 97
13-02-2026 | Meydan
Rating 106 OR 100
06-03-2026 | Meydan
Rating 102 OR 103
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip12 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:27.28 | 1:23.84 | 1:23.69

Last 3 trip positions: 25 | 1 | 6

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:23.84 | Meydan | 13-02-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -1.76s | OR 100 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
06-03-2026 Meydan | 7f | Good | Class 1 6 9/2 103 102 90 0.3 1:23.69 GOLD - faster than par
13-02-2026 Meydan | 7f | Good | -- 1 11/4F 100 106 94 0 1:23.84 GOLD - faster than par
16-01-2026 Meydan | 1m | Good | -- 1 17/2 97 103 89 0 1:35.51 GREY - below benchmark
29-07-2025 Goodwood | 1m2f | Good | Class 2 13 12/1 97 89 67 0.3 2:7.17 GREY - below benchmark
17-07-2025 Hamilton | 1m½f | Good | Class 2 2 17/2 97 103 100 2 1:44.10 GREY - below benchmark
19-06-2025 Ascot | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 25 5/1 100 61 49 2.2 1:27.95 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-5lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +5.1 | TS edge +9.2. Benchmark fit: 4.2.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Apiarist Midfield
Model agreement 6/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 60.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement6/6
FFR93
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-5lb below mark
FFR 93 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
107.1% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score34.5raw
Agreement6/6
FFR93-5lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapMark looks stiff-1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 3.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.3
Ceiling Ceiling edge 7 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Thirsk Troubled run 02-05-2026
12 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 03-04-2026
3 Kempton (AW) Run faded 18-03-2026
1 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 27-02-2026
4 Newcastle (AW) Troubled run 16-01-2026
3 Ascot Troubled run 04-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

10
02-05-2026 | Thirsk Finished 6

Beat: Dashing Darcey (GB), Esherann (FR), City Of Poets (IRE) | A War Eagle (IRE) placed next/later, Blue Rc (IRE) placed next/later

03-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 12

Beat: Shafdar (IRE), Rogue Encore (GB) | Shafdar (IRE) won next/later | Blue Rc (IRE) placed next/later, Storm Star (GB) placed next/later

18-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: God Of War (GB), Serengeti (FR), Tiger Crusade (FR) | Serengeti (FR) won next/later | Golden Mind (IRE) placed next/later, Sarab Star (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 59% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 65%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating102
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 10 1W / 4P Peak rating 102
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 81
Fast 7 0W / 0P Peak rating 102
All-weather 10 4W / 7P Peak rating 104
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 76%
Mark room 49%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)9 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -1lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 98 | FFR 93 | Best FFR 97 | FFR edge -1
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Kevin Ryan
Jockey Jack Callan(3)
Age 5
Draw 18
OR 98
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field +0.1
Rating 103
TS 92
Form -41306
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 11 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 107.1% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 24.51s recorded | FSP 107.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile9
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
03-08-2025 Galway (IRE) Soft 4 1:28.92 88.9
04-10-2025 Ascot Soft 3 1:31.39 91.4
18-03-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 3 1:26.19 86.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-1.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 28% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 47 days Standard layoff
Micro score -1.0 trainer RTF quiet at 28%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP8/1 OwnerSteve Ryan
Sire Night Of Thunder Dam Samdaniya Damsire Machiavellian
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Towards rear - headway against far rail 2f out - soon not clear run then switched right - kept on well when in the clear final 110yds - eyecatcher (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run approximately 2f out)(tchd 15/2 and tchd 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
02-05-2026 Thirsk 6 0.1 Fast finish
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) 12 0.1 Neutral finish
18-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 3 1.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 5 of 6 runs with an official OR.
04-10-2025 | Ascot
Rating 102 OR 95
16-01-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 100 OR 96
27-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 104 OR 96
18-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 102 OR 99
03-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 92 OR 99
02-05-2026 | Thirsk
Rating 102 OR 98
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:28.92 | 1:31.39 | 1:26.19

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 3 | 3

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:26.81 | Southwell (AW) | 14-02-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +1.21s | OR 93 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
02-05-2026 Thirsk | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 2 6 8/1 98 102 69 0.1 1:39.02 GREY - below benchmark
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 12 22/1 99 92 47 0.1 1:41.43 GREY - below benchmark
18-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 2 3 7/2 99 102 63 1.8 1:26.11 GREEN - within 1% of par
27-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 1 9/4F 96 104 92 0 1:36.43 GREY - below benchmark
16-01-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 4 9/2 96 100 62 0.5 1:39.36 GREY - below benchmark
04-10-2025 Ascot | 7f | Soft | Class 2 3 11/2 95 102 83 0.8 1:31.39 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +4.1 | TS edge +7.2. Benchmark fit: 3.

Model agreement 6/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Royal Velvet Front-runner
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 56.6
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR100
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-2lb near mark
FFR 100 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.5% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score43.6raw
Agreement5/6
FFR100-2lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI A+HIGH
HandicapMark looks stiff-2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.6
Variance Very steady 2.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.4
Ceiling Par capable 2.8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Lingfield Finished well 09-05-2026
1 Newmarket Finished well 16-04-2026
5 Newmarket Competitive 25-09-2025
1 York Finished well 21-08-2025
8 Newmarket (July) Run faded 09-08-2025
1 Newmarket (July) Finished well 12-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

17
09-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 1

Beat: La Brodeuse (GB), Havana Pusey (GB), Sunlit Uplands (IRE) | Sunlit Uplands (IRE) placed next/later

16-04-2026 | Newmarket Finished 1

Beat: Jordan Electrics (GB), Crimson Spirit (GB), Eminency (IRE) | Crimson Spirit (GB) won next/later, Havana Pusey (GB) won next/later | Bold Impact (IRE) placed next/later, Dragon Leader (IRE) placed next/later

25-09-2025 | Newmarket Finished 5

Beat: Jumbeau (GB), Harvanna (GB), Shallow (GB) | Cinque Verde (GB) won next/later | Angel Shared (GB) placed next/later, Hurt You Never (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 57% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 96%
Class 62%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs4/6
Best similar rating108
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 57
Good 7 2W / 2P Peak rating 102
Fast 9 5W / 6P Peak rating 108
All-weather 4 1W / 1P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 76%
Mark room 46%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A+)10 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -2lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 102 | FFR 100 | Best FFR 100 | FFR edge -2
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer William Knight
Jockey William Buick
Age 5
Draw 24
OR 102
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field +4.1
Rating 102
TS 85
Form 815-11
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 103.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile10
DEIA+
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
21-08-2025 York Good To Firm 1 1:23.46 83.5
16-04-2026 Newmarket Good 1 1:23.65 83.7
09-05-2026 Lingfield Good To Firm 1 1:22.76 82.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 35% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 40 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/8F OwnerMrs Susie Hartley
Sire Lightning Spear Dam Velvet Morn Damsire Epaulette
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Raced in last - switched left 2f out - ridden and good headway on near side of group from 1f out - led final 110yds - soon clear and ran on well - impressive(tchd 6/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
09-05-2026 Lingfield 1 0 Fast finish
16-04-2026 Newmarket 1 0 Fast finish
25-09-2025 Newmarket 5 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 5 of 6 runs with an official OR.
12-07-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 93 OR 82
09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 78 OR 86
21-08-2025 | York
Rating 97 OR 86
25-09-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 92 OR 91
16-04-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 102 OR 91
09-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating 108 OR 99
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip10 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:23.46 | 1:23.65 | 1:22.76

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 1 | 1

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:22.76 | Lingfield | 09-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -2.84s | OR 99 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
09-05-2026 Lingfield | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 1 1 11/8F 99 108 53 0 1:22.76 GOLD - faster than par
16-04-2026 Newmarket | 7f | Good | Class 3 1 13/2C 91 102 85 0 1:23.65 GOLD - faster than par
25-09-2025 Newmarket | 6f | Good | Class 2 5 4/1 91 92 87 0.5 1:11.64 GOLD - faster than par
21-08-2025 York | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 1 12/1 86 97 86 0 1:23.46 GOLD - faster than par
09-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 8 13/8F 86 78 58 0.8 1:24.74 GOLD - faster than par
12-07-2025 Newmarket (July) | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 1 4/1 82 93 82 0 1:25.31 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +6.1 | TS edge +0.2. Benchmark fit: 2.4.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
The Lost King Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 55.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR91
Speed97
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-6lb below mark
FFR 91 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
108.2% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score44.4raw
Agreement4/6
FFR91-6lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapNear ceiling+1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 2.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.4
Ceiling Par capable 3.2 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Newmarket Run faded 02-05-2026
3 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 03-04-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 07-03-2026
2 Kempton (AW) Strong run 04-02-2026
1 Kempton (AW) Finished well 07-01-2026
12 Ascot Troubled run 19-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

13
02-05-2026 | Newmarket Finished 4

Beat: Alcarath (IRE), Mister Winston (GB), Bullet Point (GB) | Mister Winston (GB) won next/later | Alcarath (IRE) placed next/later

03-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Dosman (GB), Chancellor (GB), Nikovo (GB) | Shafdar (IRE) won next/later | Blue Rc (IRE) placed next/later, Storm Star (GB) placed next/later

07-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: First Principle (GB), Two Tempting (IRE), La Botte (GB) | First Principle (GB) won next/later, Superposition (GB) won next/later | Christian David (IRE) placed next/later, Knights Gold (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 52% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 62%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating100
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 90
Fast 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 100
All-weather 5 2W / 4P Peak rating 104
Placement evidence 60% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 74%
Mark room 55%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 42%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +1lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 97 | FFR 91 | Best FFR 98 | FFR edge +1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Balding
Jockey P J McDonald
Age 4
Draw 4
OR 97
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -0.9
Rating 100
TS 86
Form -12134
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 108.2% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile3
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
07-08-2024 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 9 1:28.67 88.7
23-08-2024 Newmarket (July) Good 1 1:25.36 85.4
07-01-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 1 1:25.38 85.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 57% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 47 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP17/2 OwnerKing Power Racing Co Ltd
Sire Kingman Dam King Power Damsire Frankel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Raced centre - took keen hold - in rear - headway over 2f out - soon edged right - went fourth 1f out - no extra towards finish - 3rd of 8 in group(tchd 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
02-05-2026 Newmarket 4 1.8 Fast finish
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) 3 0.1 Neutral finish
07-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 5 of 6 runs with an official OR.
19-06-2025 | Ascot
Rating 84 OR 90
07-01-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 99 OR 90
04-02-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 98 OR 91
07-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 101 OR 92
03-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 104 OR 97
02-05-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 100 OR 97
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:28.67 | 1:25.36 | 1:25.38

Last 3 trip positions: 9 | 1 | 1

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:25.38 | Kempton (AW) | 07-01-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -0.22s | OR 90 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
02-05-2026 Newmarket | 1m1f | Good To Firm | Class 2 4 17/2 97 100 86 1.8 1:50.61 GREY - below benchmark
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 3 7/2 97 104 60 0.1 1:40.39 GREY - below benchmark
07-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m½f | Standard | Class 2 1 3/1F 92 101 79 0 1:46.38 GREY - below benchmark
04-02-2026 Kempton (AW) | 1m | Standard To Slow | Class 3 2 6/5F 91 98 27 0.8 1:40.27 GREY - below benchmark
07-01-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 2 1 12/1 90 99 66 0 1:25.38 GOLD - faster than par
19-06-2025 Ascot | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 2 12 16/1 90 84 58 0.2 1:39.99 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Near ceiling

+1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +5.1 | TS edge +1.2. Benchmark fit: 2.4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
The Fingal Raven Late pressure closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 53.9
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement3/6
FFR77
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-18lb below mark
FFR 77 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.9% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score33.0raw
Agreement3/6
FFR77-18lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapMark looks stiff-8lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.9
Variance Very steady 1.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.6
Ceiling Par capable 2.7 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Meydan Run faded 13-03-2026
5 Meydan Run faded 13-02-2026
1 Meydan Finished well 30-01-2026
4 Meydan Finished well 09-01-2026
6 Epsom Competitive 25-08-2025
3 Newmarket (July) Solid effort 09-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

15
13-03-2026 | Meydan Finished 5

Beat: Regheeb (IRE), Majestic Pride (GB), Laneqash (GB)

13-02-2026 | Meydan Finished 5

Beat: Hawksbill (GB), Indian Springs (IRE), Molaqab (GB) | Native Approach (GB) won next/later | Cavallo Bay (GB) placed next/later, Indian Springs (IRE) placed next/later

30-01-2026 | Meydan Finished 1

Beat: Ruler Of Time (USA), War Socks (GB), San Sebastian (FR) | Blue Trail (IRE) won next/later, Impressive Act (GB) won next/later | Jolly Roger (IRE) placed next/later, Ruler Of Time (USA) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 62%
Pace shape 100%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Pace shape Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating90
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 58
Good 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 95
Fast 6 0W / 4P Peak rating 95
All-weather 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 83
Placement evidence 60% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 70%
Mark room 28%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (B)7 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidenceRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: -8lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -8lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 95 | FFR 77 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge -8
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jamie Osborne
Jockey Saffie Osborne
Age 4
Draw 12
OR 95
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -2.9
Rating 87
TS 87
Form 6-4155
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile7
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
25-08-2025 Epsom Good 6 1:22.08 82.1
09-01-2026 Meydan (UAE) Good 4 1:22.92 82.9
13-02-2026 Meydan (UAE) Good 5 1:24.06 84.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 29% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 97 days Standard layoff
Micro score -0.5 trainer RTF quiet at 29%; headgear declared: t; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeart | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerDominic Griffiths And David Kavanagh
Sire Mehmas Dam Chupalla Damsire Helmet
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In touch with leaders - steady headway over 2f out - went second over 1f out - weakened gradually inside final 110yds

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
13-03-2026 Meydan 5 0.8 Neutral finish
13-02-2026 Meydan 5 0.1 Neutral finish
30-01-2026 Meydan 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
09-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 90 OR 91
25-08-2025 | Epsom
Rating 86 OR 90
09-01-2026 | Meydan
Rating 90 OR 89
30-01-2026 | Meydan
Rating 94 OR 90
13-02-2026 | Meydan
Rating 94 OR 95
13-03-2026 | Meydan
Rating 87 OR 95
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip7 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:22.08 | 1:22.92 | 1:24.06

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 4 | 5

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:25.67 | Kempton (AW) | 04-09-2024

Last distance win context: vs par +0.07s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
13-03-2026 Meydan | 1m | Good | -- 5 7/1 95 87 82 0.8 1:36.97 GREY - below benchmark
13-02-2026 Meydan | 7f | Good | -- 5 10/1 95 94 85 0.1 1:24.06 GOLD - faster than par
30-01-2026 Meydan | 1m | Good | -- 1 11/4F 90 94 87 0 1:36.76 GREY - below benchmark
09-01-2026 Meydan | 7f | Good | -- 4 11/2 89 90 87 0.2 1:22.92 GOLD - faster than par
25-08-2025 Epsom | 7f | Good | Class 3 6 12/1 90 86 76 0.8 1:22.23 GOLD - faster than par
09-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 3 3 100/30 91 90 81 1.2 1:38.46 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-8lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +3.1 | TS edge +2.2. Benchmark fit: 2.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Golden Mind Late pressure closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 52.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR83
Speed108
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-20lb below mark
FFR 83 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
108 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.6% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score54.5raw
Agreement4/6
FFR83-20lb vs OR
SpeedScore108Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapMark looks stiff-6lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; Bounce watch; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 5.5% volatility
Bounce Bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.2
Ceiling Ceiling edge 7.6 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 3
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Epsom Competitive 06-06-2026
4 Ascot Strong run 09-05-2026
2 Musselburgh Finished well 04-04-2026
7 Kempton (AW) Below best 18-03-2026
1 Doncaster Strong run 08-11-2025
20 Ascot Competitive 18-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

10
09-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 4

Beat: Royal Zabeel (IRE), Jordan Electrics (GB), So Darn Hot (GB) | Serengeti (FR) won next/later | Nostrum (GB) placed next/later, Ten Pounds (IRE) placed next/later

04-04-2026 | Musselburgh Finished 2

Beat: Goldmoyne (IRE), Royal Zabeel (IRE), Al Arbeed (GB) | A War Eagle (IRE) won next/later, Bellarchi (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 67% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 71%
Pace shape 100%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Pace shape Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 8 1W / 5P Peak rating 107
Good 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 109
Fast 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 96
All-weather 9 2W / 2P Peak rating 107
Placement evidence 75% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 93%
Mark room 34%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (B)15 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -6lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -6lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 103 | FFR 83 | Best FFR 97 | FFR edge -6
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey
Jockey Oisin Orr
Age 5
Draw 22
OR 103
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field +5.1
Rating 107
TS 90
Form 1-7248
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 12 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 103.6% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 23.37s recorded | FSP 103.6%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile15
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
04-04-2026 Musselburgh Good To Soft 2 1:28.03 88
09-05-2026 Ascot Good 4 1:25.14 85.1
06-06-2026 Epsom Good To Soft 8 1:25.97 86
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 12 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: t; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeart | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP14/1 OwnerAidan J Ryan & Partner
Sire Galileo Gold Dam Sagely Damsire Frozen Power
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Held up in rear - steady headway against rail over 2f out - pressed winner towards finish - just held(op 12/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
06-06-2026 Epsom 8 1.8 Neutral finish
09-05-2026 Ascot 4 0.3 Fast finish
04-04-2026 Musselburgh 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
18-10-2025 | Ascot
Rating 81 OR 100
08-11-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 107 OR 99
18-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 76 OR 102
04-04-2026 | Musselburgh
Rating 107 OR 102
09-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 109 OR 103
06-06-2026 | Epsom
Rating -- OR 103
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip15 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:28.03 | 1:25.14 | 1:25.97

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 4 | 8

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:26.43 | Newcastle (AW) | 21-08-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +0.83s | OR 98 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
06-06-2026 Epsom | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 1 8 14/1 103 -- -- 1.8 -- GREY - no timing read
09-05-2026 Ascot | 7f | Good | Class 2 4 33/1 103 109 101 0.3 1:25.14 GOLD - faster than par
04-04-2026 Musselburgh | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 2 2 10/1 102 107 90 0.5 1:28.02 GREY - below benchmark
18-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 2 7 22/1 102 76 37 3.8 1:27.91 GREY - below benchmark
08-11-2025 Doncaster | 6f | Heavy | Class 2 1 33/1 99 107 64 0 1:17.84 GOLD - faster than par
18-10-2025 Ascot | 1m | Good | Class 2 20 33/1 100 81 59 1.5 1:41.47 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-6lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +12.1 | TS edge +5.2. Benchmark fit: 4.2.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Dance In The Storm Distance specialist
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 52.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR88
Speed101
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR-8lb below mark
FFR 88 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.3% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score35.0raw
Agreement4/6
FFR88-8lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWorkable mark+8lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.3
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 12.7 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Epsom Competitive 05-06-2026
1 Chester Strong run 06-05-2026
10 Newmarket Run faded 27-09-2025
3 York Troubled run 21-08-2025
2 Goodwood Finished well 02-08-2025
4 Sandown Troubled run 05-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

19
05-06-2026 | Epsom Finished 5

Beat: Arctic Thunder (IRE), Son (GB), Musical Angel (GB) | Son (GB) placed next/later, Sunny Smile (IRE) placed next/later

06-05-2026 | Chester Finished 1

Beat: Sujet (GB), Pietro (IRE), Miami Matrix (IRE) | Crimson Spirit (GB) won next/later, Rare Change (IRE) won next/later | A War Eagle (IRE) placed next/later, Bell Shot (IRE) placed next/later

27-09-2025 | Newmarket Finished 10

Beat: Aalto (FR), Rare Change (IRE), Pellitory (GB) | Completely Random (GB) won next/later, Our Havana (GB) won next/later | Indian Springs (IRE) placed next/later, Leadman (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 59%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating95
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 95
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 105
Fast 4 1W / 2P Peak rating 95
All-weather 3 1W / 1P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 77% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 75%
Mark room 76%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)10 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +8lb roomNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +8lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +8lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 96 | FFR 88 | Best FFR 104 | FFR edge +8
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Balding
Jockey Oisin Murphy
Age 4
Draw 2
OR 96
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -1.9
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 230-15
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 104.3% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 24.38s recorded | FSP 104.3%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile10
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
27-09-2025 Newmarket Good To Firm 10 1:26.23 86.2
06-05-2026 Chester Good 1 1:26.83 86.8
05-06-2026 Epsom Good To Soft 5 1:24.32 84.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 57% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 13 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: h; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearh | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP15/8F OwnerJ C Smith
Sire Night Of Thunder Dam Strictly Dancing Damsire Danehill Dancer
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
05-06-2026 Epsom 5 1.2 Neutral finish
06-05-2026 Chester 1 0 Fast finish
27-09-2025 Newmarket 10 0.2 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
05-07-2025 | Sandown
Rating 82 OR 87
02-08-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 95 OR 87
21-08-2025 | York
Rating 95 OR 90
27-09-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 87 OR 91
06-05-2026 | Chester
Rating 105 OR 90
05-06-2026 | Epsom
Rating -- OR 96
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip10 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:26.23 | 1:26.83 | 1:24.32

Last 3 trip positions: 10 | 1 | 5

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:26.83 | Chester | 06-05-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.23s | OR 90 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
05-06-2026 Epsom | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 2 5 15/8F 96 -- -- 1.2 -- GREY - no timing read
06-05-2026 Chester | 7f | Good | Class 3 1 5/2F 90 105 63 0 1:26.83 AMBER - competitive
27-09-2025 Newmarket | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 10 11/4 91 87 56 0.2 1:26.41 GREEN - within 1% of par
21-08-2025 York | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 3 7/4F 90 95 84 0.3 1:23.71 GOLD - faster than par
02-08-2025 Goodwood | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 2 2 14/1 87 95 73 0.1 1:25.84 GREEN - within 1% of par
05-07-2025 Sandown | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 3 4 11/8F 87 82 70 3.2 1:28.19 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Workable mark

+8lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +7.1. Benchmark fit: 1.8.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Mezcala Front-runner
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 49.8
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR90
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-4lb below mark
FFR 90 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
108% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score47.0raw
Agreement5/6
FFR90-4lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI A+MEDIUM
HandicapNear ceiling+2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Cooling

confidence nudge +3.8
Variance Reliable 8.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.3
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 15.1 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Newbury Run faded 16-05-2026
1 Doncaster Finished well 28-03-2026
7 Newmarket Run faded 26-09-2025
2 Haydock Run faded 06-09-2025
1 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 21-08-2025
2 Nottingham Solid effort 31-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

37
16-05-2026 | Newbury Finished 3

Beat: Ebts Guard (GB), Man Of La Mancha (GB), Checkandchallenge (GB) | Blue Rc (IRE) placed next/later, Indalo (IRE) placed next/later

28-03-2026 | Doncaster Finished 1

Beat: Far From Dandy (IRE), Lir Speciale (IRE), Perfect Part (IRE) | Classic Encounter (IRE) won next/later, Milteye (GB) won next/later | Carron (IRE) placed next/later, Far From Dandy (IRE) placed next/later

26-09-2025 | Newmarket Finished 7

Beat: Mythical Guest (IRE), Mr Baloo (IRE), Thunder Wonder (IRE) | Boyfriend (GB) won next/later, Brasil Power (FR) won next/later | Man Of La Mancha (GB) placed next/later, Mythical Guest (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 63% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 96%
Class 71%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating89
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 99
Good 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 99
Fast 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 89
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 74% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 93%
Mark room 58%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (A+)5 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +2lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 94 | FFR 90 | Best FFR 96 | FFR edge +2
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jack Channon
Jockey Tom Marquand
Age 4
Draw 30
OR 94
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -3.9
Rating 99
TS 90
Form 127-13
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 108.0% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.55s recorded | FSP 108.0%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile5
DEIA+
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
06-09-2025 Haydock Good 2 1:38.14 98.1
28-03-2026 Doncaster Good To Soft 1 1:41.42 101.4
16-05-2026 Newbury Good 3 1:39.14 99.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 65% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 33 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +1.2 trainer RTF positive at 65%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/4F OwnerJon and Julia Aisbitt
Sire Expert Eye Dam Why We Dream Damsire Al Kazeem
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Towards rear - switched right soon after start - smooth headway on outer from over 3f out - shaken up and led over 1f out - ridden briefly and went clear inside final furlong - soon edged right - kept on well - comfortably(op 7/1 tchd 15/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
16-05-2026 Newbury 3 1.2 Fast finish
28-03-2026 Doncaster 1 0 Fast finish
26-09-2025 Newmarket 7 0.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 4 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
31-07-2025 | Nottingham
Rating 78 OR Unrated
21-08-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 86 OR Unrated
06-09-2025 | Haydock
Rating 90 OR 84
26-09-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 89 OR 85
28-03-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 99 OR 85
16-05-2026 | Newbury
Rating 99 OR 93
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:38.14 | 1:41.42 | 1:39.14

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1 | 3

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
16-05-2026 Newbury | 1m | Good | Class 2 3 11/4F 93 99 69 1.2 1:39.14 GREY - below benchmark
28-03-2026 Doncaster | 1m | Good To Soft | Class 2 1 11/2J 85 99 90 0 1:41.42 GREY - below benchmark
26-09-2025 Newmarket | 1m1f | Good To Firm | Class 3 7 7/2F 85 89 72 0.5 1:51.34 GREY - below benchmark
06-09-2025 Haydock | 1m | Good | Class 4 2 9/4F 84 90 88 0.5 1:38.16 GREY - below benchmark
21-08-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 1 10/11F -- 86 69 0 1:37.40 GREY - below benchmark
31-07-2025 Nottingham | 1m½f | Good To Soft | Class 5 2 11/4 -- 78 37 0.5 1:47.11 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Near ceiling

+2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +15.1 | TS edge +5.2. Benchmark fit: 4.2.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Stratusnine Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 49.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR95
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+0lb near mark
FFR 95 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%even finish
102% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score26.9raw
Agreement4/6
FFR95+0lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+23lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 2.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.1
Ceiling Par capable 3.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 York Finished well 23-05-2026
-- Chester Run faded 07-05-2026
2 Newcastle (AW) Strong run 19-03-2026
5 Kempton (AW) Run faded 11-02-2026
-- Lingfield (AW) Steady run 31-01-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 26-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

7
23-05-2026 | York Finished 2

Beat: Toca Madera (IRE), Fortification (GB), Air Force One (IRE) | Toca Madera (IRE) won next/later | Fortification (GB) placed next/later, Partisan Hero (IRE) placed next/later

19-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 2

Beat: We Never Stop (IRE), Albasheer (IRE), Heavenly Heather (GB) | Albasheer (IRE) placed next/later, Heavenly Heather (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 68%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 84
Good 3 1W / 2P Peak rating 99
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 84
All-weather 6 1W / 3P Peak rating 98
Placement evidence 75% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 89%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 64%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +23lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +23lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +23lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 95 | FFR 95 | Best FFR 118 | FFR edge +23
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Hugo Palmer
Jockey Kieran Shoemark
Age 4
Draw 13
OR 95
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -2.9
Rating 98
TS 87
Form -U52P2
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 5 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 102.0% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 25.32s recorded | FSP 102.0%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile2
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-10-2024 York Soft 2 1:29.04 89
26-12-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 2 1:27.56 87.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 59% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP12/1 OwnerStratus9 Consulting Limited
Sire Far Above Dam Teide Lady Damsire Nashwan
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Midfield - headway from over 1f out - switched right and kept on inside final furlong(tchd 3/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 York 2 0.2 Fast finish
07-05-2026 Chester -- -- Run faded
19-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) 2 1.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 4 runs with an official OR.
26-12-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 96 OR 92
31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating -- OR 92
11-02-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 92 OR 92
19-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 98 OR 91
07-05-2026 | Chester
Rating -- OR 92
23-05-2026 | York
Rating 99 OR 92
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:29.04 | 1:27.56

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 2

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 York | 5f | Good | Class 2 2 12/1 92 99 68 0.2 0:58.37 GOLD - faster than par
07-05-2026 Chester | 5f | Good | Class 2 -- 9/1 92 -- -- -- - GREY - no timing read
19-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 2 2 7/2 91 98 87 1.2 1:11.47 GOLD - faster than par
11-02-2026 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 2 5 13/2 92 92 65 0.3 1:11.89 GOLD - faster than par
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 1 -- 33/1 92 -- -- -- - GREY - no timing read
26-12-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 3 2 6/5F 92 96 77 1.2 1:27.56 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Well handicapped

+23lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +10.1 | TS edge +2.2. Benchmark fit: 3.6.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
River King Context profile
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 48.3
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement3/6
FFR87
Speed100
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-8lb below mark
FFR 87 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score34.5raw
Agreement3/6
FFR87-8lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-8lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +2.3
Variance Reliable 5.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.3
Ceiling Ceiling edge 9 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Newbury Strong run 01-06-2026
2 Chepstow Strong run 21-05-2026
1 Windsor Strong run 16-06-2025
3 Chelmsford (AW) Run faded 22-05-2025
2 Nottingham Finished well 09-05-2025
4 Kempton (AW) Finished well 07-08-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

7
01-06-2026 | Newbury Finished 1

Beat: The Third Star (GB), Knights Gold (IRE), Classic Encounter (IRE)

21-05-2026 | Chepstow Finished 2

Beat: Naples (IRE), Crystal Mariner (IRE), Alcaraz (FR) | The Green Mile (IRE) placed next/later

16-06-2025 | Windsor Finished 1

Beat: Life Is Rosie (GB), Masolar (GB), Rogue Identity (GB) | Life Is Rosie (GB) won next/later, Masolar (GB) won next/later | Rogue Identity (GB) placed next/later, Treasured Angel (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 48% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 59%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating85
Best ground bandTesting
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 92
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 84
Fast 2 2W / 2P Peak rating 85
All-weather 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 83
Placement evidence 55% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 67%
Mark room 28%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -8lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -8lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 95 | FFR 87 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge -8
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Richard Hannon
Jockey Pat Dobbs
Age 4
Draw 14
OR 95
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -2.9
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 231-21
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 105.0% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile2
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
07-08-2024 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 4 1:28.27 88.3
25-04-2025 Doncaster Good To Firm 3 1:25.74 85.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 58% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 17 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30J OwnerGrande Motte
Sire King Of Change Dam Precipitous Damsire Indian Ridge
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
01-06-2026 Newbury 1 0 Neutral finish
21-05-2026 Chepstow 2 0.3 Fast finish
16-06-2025 Windsor 1 0 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 3 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
07-08-2024 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 72 OR Unrated
09-05-2025 | Nottingham
Rating 84 OR Unrated
22-05-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 83 OR 85
16-06-2025 | Windsor
Rating 85 OR 85
21-05-2026 | Chepstow
Rating 92 OR 84
01-06-2026 | Newbury
Rating -- OR 87
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:28.27 | 1:25.74

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 3

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
01-06-2026 Newbury | 8f | Good To Firm | Class 4 1 100/30J 87 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
21-05-2026 Chepstow | 1m2f | Good To Soft | Class 4 2 8/13F 84 92 36 0.3 2:10.19 GREY - below benchmark
16-06-2025 Windsor | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 5 1 4/11F 85 85 74 0 2:7.59 GREY - below benchmark
22-05-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 3 15/8F 85 83 68 3.2 1:36.88 GREY - below benchmark
09-05-2025 Nottingham | 1m½f | Good | Class 5 2 5/6F -- 84 64 5 1:43.75 GREY - below benchmark
07-08-2024 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 4 40/1 -- 72 33 0.5 1:28.27 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-8lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +3.1. Benchmark fit: 1.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Vafortino Prominent
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 44.1
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR88
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-13lb below mark
FFR 88 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%even finish
99.7% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score22.5raw
Agreement4/6
FFR88-13lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapMark looks stiff-3lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +2.1
Variance Very steady 1.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 1.3
Ceiling Below requirement -0.2 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 York Run faded 14-05-2026
7 Meydan Competitive 06-03-2026
10 Abu Dhabi Run faded 07-02-2026
5 Meydan Run faded 23-01-2026
4 Meydan Run faded 02-01-2026
7 Meydan Competitive 19-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

16
14-05-2026 | York Finished 8

Beat: Croupier (IRE), Godwinson (GB), Thunder Roar (GB) | Diego Ventura (IRE) won next/later, Point Of Contact (IRE) won next/later

06-03-2026 | Meydan Finished 7

Beat: Witness Stand (GB), Khanjar (IRE), Hawksbill (GB) | Fort Payne (FR) won next/later | Andreas Vesalius (IRE) placed next/later, Audience (GB) placed next/later

07-02-2026 | Abu Dhabi Finished 10

Beat: Maljoom (IRE), Aomori City (FR), Folk Festival (IRE) | Comanche Brave (IRE) won next/later, Jonquil (GB) won next/later | Andreas Vesalius (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 59% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 71%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Handicap
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 8 0W / 3P Peak rating 112
Good 11 2W / 3P Peak rating 113
Fast 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 111
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 109
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 93%
Mark room 43%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A)24 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidenceRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: -3lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -3lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 101 | FFR 88 | Best FFR 98 | FFR edge -3
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Charlie Fellowes
Jockey Christophe Soumillon
Age 8
Draw 20
OR 101
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field +3.1
Rating 101
TS 91
Form -45078
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 23.97s recorded | FSP 99.7%
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile24
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
28-09-2025 Cologne (GER) Good To Soft 5 1:22.49 82.5
19-12-2025 Meydan (UAE) Yielding 7 1:23.53 83.5
06-03-2026 Meydan (UAE) Good 7 1:23.76 83.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 37% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 35 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/1 OwnerD MacAuliffe, Anoj Don & Dahab Racing
Sire New Bay Dam Arbaah Damsire Invasor
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

In rear - headway inside final furlong - never dangerous

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
14-05-2026 York 8 0.2 Neutral finish
06-03-2026 Meydan 7 0.2 Fast finish
07-02-2026 Abu Dhabi 10 1 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
19-12-2025 | Meydan
Rating 103 OR 104
02-01-2026 | Meydan
Rating 107 OR 102
23-01-2026 | Meydan
Rating 104 OR 102
07-02-2026 | Abu Dhabi
Rating 100 OR 105
06-03-2026 | Meydan
Rating 101 OR 105
14-05-2026 | York
Rating 104 OR 103
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip24 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:22.49 | 1:23.53 | 1:23.76

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 7 | 7

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:22.23 | Meydan (UAE) | 22-12-2023

Last distance win context: vs par -3.37s | OR 106 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
14-05-2026 York | 1m | Good | Class 2 8 11/1 103 104 79 0.2 1:37.90 GREY - below benchmark
06-03-2026 Meydan | 7f | Good | Class 1 7 33/1 105 101 90 0.2 1:23.76 GOLD - faster than par
07-02-2026 Abu Dhabi | 1m | Good | Class 1 10 -- 105 100 -- 1 1:35.02 GREY - below benchmark
23-01-2026 Meydan | 1m1f | Good | Class 1 5 25/1 102 104 91 3.2 1:48.81 GREY - below benchmark
02-01-2026 Meydan | 1m | Good | Class 1 4 30/1 102 107 86 0.1 1:36.12 GREY - below benchmark
19-12-2025 Meydan | 7f | Yielding | Class 1 7 25/1 104 103 101 0.1 1:23.53 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-3lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +13.1 | TS edge +6.2. Benchmark fit: 4.2.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Defence Minister Front-runner
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 44.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement4/6
FFR83
Speed103
ConditionsCaution
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-13lb below mark
FFR 83 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
103 Par 100
FSP%even finish
98.9% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score27.1raw
Agreement4/6
FFR83-13lb vs OR
SpeedScore103Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapMark looks stiff-2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Ceiling edge; Edging forward

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 3.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 1.8
Ceiling Ceiling edge 9 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
17 Ascot Competitive 09-05-2026
1 Kempton (AW) Strong run 28-03-2026
9 Doncaster Run faded 14-09-2025
4 Goodwood Competitive 30-07-2025
2 Sandown Finished well 05-07-2025
15 Ascot Finished well 19-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

29
09-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 17

Beat: Hickory (IRE), Storm Free (GB), Witch Hunter (FR) | Serengeti (FR) won next/later | Nostrum (GB) placed next/later, Ten Pounds (IRE) placed next/later

28-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Cogitate (IRE), Golden Redemption (USA), Im Workin On It (GB) | Im Workin On It (GB) won next/later | Bold Impact (IRE) placed next/later, Cogitate (IRE) placed next/later

14-09-2025 | Doncaster Finished 9

Beat: Spell Master (GB), Tiger Mask (IRE), God Of War (GB) | Angel Hunter (GB) won next/later, Brighton Boy (IRE) won next/later | Andesite (GB) placed next/later, Back In Black (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 49% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 78%
Class 59%
Pace shape 40%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating97
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 1W / 1P Peak rating 93
Good 3 1W / 1P Peak rating 97
Fast 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 97
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 101
Placement evidence 65% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 75%
Mark room 46%
Stable setup 60%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (B)5 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -2lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 96 | FFR 83 | Best FFR 94 | FFR edge -2
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Hamad Al Jehani
Jockey James McDonald
Age 4
Draw 8
OR 96
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -1.9
Rating 101
TS 80
Form 249-10
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 24.54s recorded | FSP 98.9%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile5
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
14-09-2025 Doncaster Good To Soft 9 1:25.35 85.3
28-03-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 1 1:25.55 85.5
09-05-2026 Ascot Good 17 1:26.32 86.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 40 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/1 OwnerWathnan Racing
Sire Too Darn Hot Dam Tears Of The Sun Damsire Mastercraftsman
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Dwelt start and ducked left start - took keen hold - in rear - smooth headway from over 2f out - ridden and led 1f out - carried left by loose horse but kept on well inside final furlong(op 5/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
09-05-2026 Ascot 17 0.1 Neutral finish
28-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
14-09-2025 Doncaster 9 0.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
19-06-2025 | Ascot
Rating 86 OR 94
05-07-2025 | Sandown
Rating 97 OR 92
30-07-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 97 OR 93
14-09-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 90 OR 93
28-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 101 OR 92
09-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 83 OR 96
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:25.35 | 1:25.55 | 1:26.32

Last 3 trip positions: 9 | 1 | 17

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at trip1:25.55 | Kempton (AW) | 28-03-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -0.05s | OR 92 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
09-05-2026 Ascot | 7f | Good | Class 2 17 11/1 96 83 76 0.1 1:26.32 GREEN - within 1% of par
28-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 3 1 9/4F 92 101 80 0 1:25.55 GOLD - faster than par
14-09-2025 Doncaster | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 2 9 9/2F 93 90 59 0.5 1:25.42 GOLD - faster than par
30-07-2025 Goodwood | 7f | Good | Class 3 4 5/1 93 97 87 0.3 1:25.41 GOLD - faster than par
05-07-2025 Sandown | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 3 2 6/1 92 97 85 0.5 1:27.49 AMBER - competitive
19-06-2025 Ascot | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 2 15 33/1 94 86 60 0.3 1:40.10 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +7.1 | TS edge -4.8. Benchmark fit: 1.8.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Elarak Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 41.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Arctic Dawn Distance specialist
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 40.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Storm Star Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 38.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement3/6
FFR90
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-6lb below mark
FFR 90 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%even finish
99.9% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score23.9raw
Agreement3/6
FFR90-6lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 7.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.1
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 18.8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Ascot Finished well 01-05-2026
10 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 03-04-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Run faded 07-02-2026
6 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 16-01-2026
3 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 13-12-2025
1 Newcastle (AW) Strong run 18-04-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

11
01-05-2026 | Ascot Finished 2

Beat: Saytarr (GB), Greek Order (GB), Dosman (GB) | Colombier (GB) won next/later

03-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 10

Beat: First Principle (GB), Apiarist (IRE), Shafdar (IRE) | Shafdar (IRE) won next/later | Blue Rc (IRE) placed next/later

07-02-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Dear My Friend (GB) | Skylight Brochard (HOL) won next/later, Tyrrhenian Sea (IRE) won next/later | Chancellor (GB) placed next/later, Two Tempting (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 62%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating102
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 85
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 91
Fast 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 102
All-weather 11 4W / 7P Peak rating 106
Placement evidence 68% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 72%
Mark room 79%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Class benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +9lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +9lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 96 | FFR 90 | Best FFR 105 | FFR edge +9
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Balding
Jockey Alfie Redman(7)
Age 5
Draw 25
OR 96
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -1.9
Rating 102
TS 85
Form 3-6602
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 99.9% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile4
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
06-07-2024 Sandown Soft 3 1:33.24 93.2
25-07-2024 Yarmouth Good To Firm 2 1:24.16 84.2
13-12-2025 Newcastle (AW) Standard 3 1:27.09 87.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 57% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 48 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 No extra micro-intel adjustment
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP12/1 OwnerJ C Smith
Sire Night Of Thunder Dam Dancing Star Damsire Aqlaam
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Towards rear - headway 2f out - pressed leaders over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - went second post(op 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
01-05-2026 Ascot 2 1.8 Fast finish
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) 10 0.3 Run faded
07-02-2026 Southwell (AW) 6 2.5 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
18-04-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 106 OR 95
13-12-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 104 OR 100
16-01-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 102 OR 100
07-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 92 OR 99
03-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 94 OR 98
01-05-2026 | Ascot
Rating 102 OR 95
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:33.24 | 1:24.16 | 1:27.09

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 2 | 3

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
01-05-2026 Ascot | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 3 2 12/1 95 102 85 1.8 1:39.48 GREY - below benchmark
03-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 10 12/1 98 94 50 0.3 1:41.17 GREY - below benchmark
07-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 1 6 12/1 99 92 80 2.5 1:40.08 GREY - below benchmark
16-01-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 6 7/4F 100 102 64 0.5 1:39.48 GREY - below benchmark
13-12-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 2 3 11/4 100 104 76 1.2 1:27.09 AMBER - competitive
18-04-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 2 1 5/2F 95 106 97 0 1:36.22 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Workable mark

+9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +4.1 | TS edge +0.2. Benchmark fit: 2.4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Fondo Blanco Context profile
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 37.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Room Service Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 35.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR95
Speed97
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-10lb below mark
FFR 95 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%faded late
95.8% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskRaw score needs more support
Model Score37.5raw
Agreement2/6
FFR95-10lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DMEDIUM
HandicapMark looks stiff-4lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.9
Variance Very steady 4.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.4
Ceiling Below requirement -0.9 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Redcar Finished well 04-10-2025
7 Doncaster Run faded 13-09-2025
8 Curragh (IRE) Run faded 20-07-2025
2 York Finished well 28-06-2025
4 Haydock Finished well 31-05-2025
1 Doncaster Finished well 09-11-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 8 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

26
04-10-2025 | Redcar Finished 5

Beat: Palmar Bay (FR), Perfect Part (IRE), Tropical Island (GB) | Great Dream (GB) won next/later, Myal (GB) won next/later | Perfect Part (IRE) placed next/later, Volterra (IRE) placed next/later

13-09-2025 | Doncaster Finished 7

Beat: Ten Bob Tony (IRE), Shadow Of Light (GB), East Hampton (GB) | Quinault (GER) won next/later, Ten Bob Tony (IRE) won next/later | Audience (GB) placed next/later, East Hampton (GB) placed next/later

20-07-2025 | Curragh (IRE) Finished 8

Beat: Chicago Critic (GB), Easy (IRE) | Big Gossey (IRE) won next/later, California Dreamer (GB) won next/later | Chicago Critic (GB) placed next/later, East Hampton (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 47% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 52%
Class 65%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 34%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Class Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Fast No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandGood
Read No recent fast sample; best evidence is on good ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 8 3W / 4P Peak rating 115
Good 4 1W / 2P Peak rating 112
Fast 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 101
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 57% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 86%
Mark room 40%
Stable setup 58%
Recent evidence 50%
6 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedCurrent mark looks demanding on rating evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -4lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -4lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 105 | FFR 95 | Best FFR 101 | FFR edge -4
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jamie Osborne
Jockey William Carver
Age 5
Draw 5
OR 105
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field +7.1
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 42875-
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 95.8% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 25.79s recorded | FSP 95.8%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile6
DEID
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
20-07-2025 Curragh (IRE) Good To Yielding 8 1:29.22 89.2
13-09-2025 Doncaster Soft 7 1:26.87 86.9
04-10-2025 Redcar Good To Soft 5 1:24.69 84.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-1.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 29% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 257 days Freshness caution
Micro score -1.5 trainer RTF quiet at 29%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; freshness caution after 257 days off; headgear declared: tb
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeartb | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2 OwnerThe Room Service Girls
Sire Kodi Bear Dam Tamara Love Damsire Tamayuz
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
04-10-2025 Redcar 5 0.8 Fast finish
13-09-2025 Doncaster 7 2.5 Run faded
20-07-2025 Curragh (IRE) 8 0.8 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
09-11-2024 | Doncaster
Rating 110 OR 109
31-05-2025 | Haydock
Rating 107 OR 109
28-06-2025 | York
Rating 112 OR 109
20-07-2025 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 102 OR 109
13-09-2025 | Doncaster
Rating 93 OR 109
04-10-2025 | Redcar
Rating 102 OR 107
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:29.22 | 1:26.87 | 1:24.69

Last 3 trip positions: 8 | 7 | 5

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
04-10-2025 Redcar | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 1 5 9/2 107 102 65 0.8 1:24.75 GOLD - faster than par
13-09-2025 Doncaster | 7f | Soft | Class 1 7 8/1 109 93 50 2.5 1:26.87 AMBER - competitive
20-07-2025 Curragh (IRE) | 7f | Good To Yielding | -- 8 3/1 109 102 52 0.8 1:29.32 GREY - below benchmark
28-06-2025 York | 7f | Good | Class 1 2 8/1 109 112 82 1 1:23.76 GOLD - faster than par
31-05-2025 Haydock | 7f | Good | Class 1 4 28/1 109 107 72 1.2 1:29.69 GREY - below benchmark
09-11-2024 Doncaster | 6f | Soft | Class 1 1 100/30 109 110 86 0 1:15.07 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-4lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +20.1. Benchmark fit: 3.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Mirsky Prominent
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 34.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR81
Speed94
ConditionsCaution
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-14lb below mark
FFR 81 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.5% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score25.9raw
Agreement4/6
FFR81-14lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EMEDIUM
HandicapNear ceiling+3lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +1.6
Variance Very steady 3.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.5
Ceiling Par capable 3.9 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
11 Epsom Competitive 05-06-2026
15 York Run faded 14-05-2026
1 Thirsk Strong run 02-05-2026
3 Musselburgh Run faded 12-04-2026
9 Sandown Run faded 05-07-2025
13 Ascot Run faded 19-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

6
05-06-2026 | Epsom Finished 11

Beat: Mr Swivell (GB), Stem (IRE), Celeborn (GB)

14-05-2026 | York Finished 15

Beat: Old Cock (IRE), First Principle (GB), Sea Force (IRE) | Diego Ventura (IRE) won next/later, Point Of Contact (IRE) won next/later

02-05-2026 | Thirsk Finished 1

Beat: Blue Rc (IRE), Sea Force (IRE), Accentuate (GB) | A War Eagle (IRE) placed next/later, Blue Rc (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 49% Conditions ask questions
Trip / ground 38%
Class 56%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Fast Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating103
Best ground bandFast
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 8 2W / 2P Peak rating 104
Good 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 99
Fast 8 2W / 3P Peak rating 103
All-weather 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 93
Placement evidence 52% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 30%
Class fit 65%
Mark room 61%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 42%
5 similar-trip runs recordedTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +3lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +3lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 95 | FFR 81 | Best FFR 98 | FFR edge +3
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer David O'Meara
Jockey Rossa Ryan
Age 7
Draw 15
OR 95
Avg OR 97.9
OR vs Field -2.9
Rating 104
TS 76
Form 9-3100
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 5 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 102.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile5
DEIE
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
05-10-2024 Ascot Soft 5 1:28.51 88.5
04-11-2024 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 9 1:26.63 86.6
19-06-2025 Ascot Good To Firm 13 1:25.57 85.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 36% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 13 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP18/1 OwnerJ N Blackburn
Sire Siyouni Dam Latice Damsire Inchinor
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Travelled strongly - midfield - headway on outer over 3f out - led over 1f out - soon ridden - edged left but kept on final 110yds(op 8/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
05-06-2026 Epsom 11 0.8 Neutral finish
14-05-2026 York 15 1 Neutral finish
02-05-2026 Thirsk 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 5 runs with an official OR.
19-06-2025 | Ascot
Rating 83 OR 95
05-07-2025 | Sandown
Rating 93 OR 95
12-04-2026 | Musselburgh
Rating 99 OR 94
02-05-2026 | Thirsk
Rating 103 OR 93
14-05-2026 | York
Rating 80 OR 96
05-06-2026 | Epsom
Rating -- OR 96
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:28.51 | 1:26.63 | 1:25.57

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 9 | 13

Approx winning time1m 25.60s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
05-06-2026 Epsom | 8.5f | Good To Soft | Class 2 11 18/1 96 -- -- 0.8 -- GREY - no timing read
14-05-2026 York | 1m | Good | Class 2 15 17/2 96 80 54 1 1:39.03 GREY - below benchmark
02-05-2026 Thirsk | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 2 1 5/1 93 103 70 0 1:38.54 GREY - below benchmark
12-04-2026 Musselburgh | 1m1f | Good | Class 3 3 11/1 94 99 76 0.3 1:52.51 GREY - below benchmark
05-07-2025 Sandown | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 2 9 13/2 95 93 64 0.1 1:42.41 GREY - below benchmark
19-06-2025 Ascot | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 2 13 22/1 95 83 71 0.3 1:25.90 GREEN - within 1% of par
Handicap Near ceiling

+3lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 104.9 and winning TS par is around 84.8. Runner versus par: rating edge +4.1 | TS edge -8.8. Benchmark fit: 1.2.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Brasil Power Late pressure closer
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 33.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

So Darn Hot Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 26.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Pellitory Distance specialist
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 23.4
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Hickory Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 21.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Blue Brother Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Rock Of Cashel Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Colombier Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Nizam Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:20 | Leopardstown

6:20 | Leopardstown | 8f

| Good | BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Rated Race

Race Confidence 79 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR81.49 rated runners | Top OR 88: God Of Power
Winning Time Par1m 40.98s3 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • God Of Power leads the contextual model at 59.6
  • Clearer top profile: +7.9 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 40.98s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 1 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield4
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
God Of PowerRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 74.0 2-1-9-4 9-12 2 OR 88 77 -11lb 9/2 +6.6 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 56% 57% 4/6 101 D Stiff -1 CAUTION PROFILE
Sir BenjiRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 61.2 3-1 9-10 6 OR 86 80 -6lb 13/2 +4.6 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 56% 56% 4/6 99 D Ceiling +4 PRICE DEPENDENT
Shaftesbury AvenueRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 39.0 6-1-3 9-10 4 OR 86 69 -17lb 7/2 +4.6 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 54% 57% 2/6 88 C Ceiling +0 CAUTION PROFILE
Johnny SodaRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 29.0 7-5-1-3-12-2 9-0 1 OR 76 46 -30lb 11/1 -5.4 Standard rest Big drop back Solid field 60% 58% 3/6 97 C Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
KrasimirRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 24.7 2-3-2-3 9-7 5 OR 83 72 -11lb 6/1 +1.6 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 56% 62% 2/6 98 D Workable +7 CAUTION PROFILE
Red AutumnRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 23.8 4-4-5-2-5-1 9-5 3 OR 81 58 -23lb 8/1 -0.4 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 57% 59% 3/6 97 C Ceiling +2 CAUTION PROFILE
Glitter And GloryRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 23.4 5-1-2-3-3-30 8-13 9 OR 74 86 +12lb 8/1 -7.4 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 57% 59% 1/6 103 D Well in +12 CAUTION PROFILE
GolddreamRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 22.8 3-1-6 9-4 7 OR 80 73 -7lb 4/1 -1.4 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 52% 54% 2/6 93 D Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Halon BayRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 18.4 1-4-8 9-3 8 OR 79 85 +6lb 8/1 -2.4 Freshened up Up in trip Solid field 51% 54% 0/6 98 E Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit God Of Power

God Of Power profiles as a front-runner with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 4/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Sir Benji

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
God Of Power Front-end controller
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR77
Speed101
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-11lb below mark
FFR 77 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%faded late
96.6% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score59.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR77-11lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Very steady 4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.2
Ceiling Par capable 4.4 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Listowel (IRE) Solid effort 31-05-2026
1 Limerick Strong run 25-04-2026
9 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 05-12-2025
4 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 21-11-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

13
31-05-2026 | Listowel (IRE) Finished 2

Beat: Thread Of Gold (IRE), Satoyama (GER), Sursum Corda (IRE) | Tim Toe (IRE) placed next/later

25-04-2026 | Limerick Finished 1

Beat: Dark Leader (IRE), Zenford (IRE), Big Cypress (GB) | Oro Blanco (IRE) won next/later | Absoluteassignment (IRE) placed next/later, Big Cypress (GB) placed next/later

05-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Tariff (IRE), Sea Of Dubka (IRE), Swift Charm (IRE) | Fallacy (USA) won next/later | Abbotsford (GB) placed next/later, Lonely Island (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 51%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Pace shape Question Handicap
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 91
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating --
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 57% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 49%
Mark room 49%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -1lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 88 | FFR 77 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge -1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Slattery
Jockey Andrew Slattery
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 88
Avg OR 81.4
OR vs Field +6.6
Rating 91
TS 84
Form 49-12
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile3
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
21-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 4 1:38.77 98.8
05-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 9 1:41.32 101.3
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) Good 2 1:43.02 103
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 46% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 18 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/2 OwnerDamien Moore
Sire Lope De Vega Dam Sharqawiyah Damsire Dubawi
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent - went second halfway - led 2f out - soon clear with one other - ridden and kept on final 110yds(op 11/10)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) 2 0.5 Neutral finish
25-04-2026 Limerick 1 0 Fast finish
05-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) 9 1 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
21-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 78 OR Unrated
05-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 44 OR Unrated
25-04-2026 | Limerick
Rating 91 OR Unrated
31-05-2026 | Listowel (IRE)
Rating -- OR 80
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:38.77 | 1:41.32 | 1:43.02

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 9 | 2

Approx winning time1m 40.98s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) | 8f | Good | -- 2 7/2 80 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
25-04-2026 Limerick | 7f | Yielding | -- 1 9/4 -- 91 84 0 1:36.44 GOLD - faster than par
05-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 9 6/4F -- 44 36 1 1:41.32 GREEN - within 1% of par
21-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 4 9/2 -- 78 66 0.5 1:38.77 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 92.3 and winning TS par is around 83.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -1.3 | TS edge +0.7. Benchmark fit: 0.3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sir Benji Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 61.2
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR80
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-6lb below mark
FFR 80 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score51.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR80-6lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+4lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Developing; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +0.2
Variance Developing Consistency developing
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Roscommon Run faded 11-05-2026
1 Navan Finished well 30-03-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

8
11-05-2026 | Roscommon Finished 3

Beat: Rebel Ascendant (GB), Elzaam Express (IRE)

30-03-2026 | Navan Finished 1

Beat: Forty Six A (IRE), Karrygrant (IRE), Trojan Fighter (GB) | Lord Aus (IRE) won next/later, Sweet Baby Zou (GB) won next/later | Karrygrant (IRE) placed next/later, Maxminelli (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 53%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Pace shape Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/2
Best similar rating84
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 89
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 84
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 56% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 47%
Mark room 64%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +4lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +4lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 86 | FFR 80 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +4
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Gavin Cromwell
Jockey Robert Whearty
Age 3
Draw 6
OR 86
Avg OR 81.4
OR vs Field +4.6
Rating 89
TS 87
Form 13
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
30-03-2026 Navan (IRE) Heavy 1 2:20.80 140.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 42% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 38 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/1 OwnerBrendan Rogers
Sire Sottsass Dam Boundless Joy Damsire Montjeu
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Took keen hold - held up in rear - ran green when headway towards near side 3f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - kept on well(op 20/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-05-2026 Roscommon 3 3.5 Fast finish
30-03-2026 Navan 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
30-03-2026 | Navan
Rating 89 OR Unrated
11-05-2026 | Roscommon
Rating 84 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:20.80

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time1m 40.98s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-05-2026 Roscommon | 1m2½f | Good | -- 3 5/1 -- 84 25 3.5 2:17.94 GREY - below benchmark
30-03-2026 Navan | 1m2f | Heavy | -- 1 14/1 -- 89 87 0 2:20.80 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Near ceiling

+4lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 92.3 and winning TS par is around 83.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -3.3 | TS edge +3.7. Benchmark fit: 0.6.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Shaftesbury Avenue Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 39.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Johnny Soda Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 29.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Krasimir Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 24.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Red Autumn Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 23.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Glitter And Glory Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 23.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Golddream Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 22.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Halon Bay Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 18.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:30 | Southwell (AW)

6:30 | Southwell (AW) | 5f

Class 5 | Standard | Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Fillies' Handicap

Race Confidence 78 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR63.28 rated runners | Top OR 68: La Belle Forest
Winning Time Par58.41s56 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-70
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos low
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Life After Love leads the contextual model at 49.8
  • Clearer top profile: +10.4 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 58.41s
Race shape Balanced context race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 4 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders2
Prominent0
Midfield0
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Life After LoveRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 84.8 3-1-1-4-2-1 9-8 5 OR 67 78 +11lb 12/5 +3.8 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 71% 67% 4/6 98 A+ Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
Sarafina MshairiRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 81.4 9-1-5-3-2-5 9-12 4 OR 65 73 +8lb 15/2 +1.8 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 66% 72% 3/6 102 A Well in +20 PRICE DEPENDENT
La Belle ForestRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 61.2 6-7-1-3-5 9-9 2 OR 68 50 -18lb 13/2 +4.8 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 62% 62% 3/6 100 C Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
J StreetRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed 44.4 5-3-6-8-2-12 9-12 6 OR 65 68 +3lb 10/3 +1.8 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 65% 69% 3/6 104 C Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
StartlingRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 28.0 3-8-6-1-2 9-7 1 OR 60 71 +11lb 10/1 -3.2 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 66% 69% 3/6 98 A Well in +20 WATCH ONLY
TorfridaRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 13.5 7-6-2-9-4 9-7 8 OR 60 69 +9lb 9/1 -3.2 Long absence Same trip Modest field 58% 66% 1/6 95 D Well in +19 WATCH ONLY
Fantasy ObsessorRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 9.6 2-2-11-5-9-9 9-12 3 OR 65 79 +14lb 3/1 +1.8 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 53% 57% 2/6 105 D Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
Solid BondRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 4.8 8-11-7-10-5-9 9-3 7 OR 56 47 -9lb 16/1 -7.2 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 56% 59% 0/6 104 E Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Life After Love

Life After Love profiles as a closer with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A+. Model alignment is 4/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Sarafina Mshairi

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Life After Love Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 84.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR78
Speed98
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+11lb ahead of mark
FFR 78 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score49.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR78+11lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI A+MEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+15lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +1.8
Variance Reliable 5.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.2
Ceiling Par capable 2.9 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Lingfield Run faded 18-05-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 23-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 26-03-2026
4 Kempton (AW) Troubled run 02-03-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 25-02-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 07-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

6
18-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 3

Beat: Solar Invincible (IRE), Bessie Wallis (IRE), Yes Waliim (IRE) | Solar Invincible (IRE) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Believeinmenow (IRE), Blue Deveron (GB), Sands Of Seve (GB) | Believeinmenow (IRE) placed next/later

26-03-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Jane Of The Jungle (IRE), Enter Sandman (IRE), Bold Return (IRE) | Enter Sandman (IRE) won next/later | Jane Of The Jungle (IRE) placed next/later, Mademoiselle Belle (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 71% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 96%
Class 45%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs5/6
Best similar rating66
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 63
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 9 3W / 4P Peak rating 66
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 26%
Mark room 97%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A+)5 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +15lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +15lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +15lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 67 | FFR 78 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +15
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ollie Sangster
Jockey Jason Watson
Age 3
Draw 5
OR 67
Avg OR 63.2
OR vs Field +3.8
Rating 66
TS 60
Form 124113
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 100.0% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 25.05s recorded | FSP 100.0%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 5f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile5
DEIA+
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 0:58.17 58.2
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 0:59.85 59.9
18-05-2026 Lingfield Good 3 0:58.16 58.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 26% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 31 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 26%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerThe Chriselliam Partnership
Sire Palace Pier Dam Love On The Rocks Damsire Exceed And Excel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Pressed leader - led over 2f out - hung left over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 2/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
18-05-2026 Lingfield 3 0.3 Neutral finish
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
07-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 59 OR 55
25-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 59 OR 58
02-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 54 OR 58
26-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 65 OR 60
23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 66 OR 64
18-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating 63 OR 68
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 0:58.17 | 0:59.85 | 0:58.16

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 1 | 3

Approx winning time58.41s
Last win at trip0:59.85 | Southwell (AW) | 23-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.44s | OR 64 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
18-05-2026 Lingfield | 5f | Good | Class 5 3 7/1 68 63 55 0.3 0:58.16 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 5 1 6/5F 64 66 28 0 0:59.85 AMBER - competitive
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 1 3/1 60 65 60 0 0:58.17 GOLD - faster than par
02-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 6 4 7/2 58 54 34 1.2 1:14.21 GREY - below benchmark
25-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 2 3/1 58 59 51 0.3 0:58.64 GREEN - within 1% of par
07-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 1 100/30 55 59 39 0 1:00.49 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+15lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.1 and winning TS par is around 56.9. Runner versus par: rating edge -12.1 | TS edge +3.1. Benchmark fit: -1.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sarafina Mshairi Distance specialist
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 81.4
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR73
Speed102
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+8lb ahead of mark
FFR 73 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
102 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
110.1% 100% par
Best reasonRecent form and class support, but not a full-stake profile Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score36.8raw
Agreement3/6
FFR73+8lb vs OR
SpeedScore102Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+20lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.4
Variance Very steady 4.8% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.7
Ceiling Par capable 1.7 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Windsor Competitive 18-05-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 07-10-2025
5 Chester Finished well 12-09-2025
3 Newmarket (July) Finished well 15-08-2025
2 Windsor Run faded 26-07-2025
5 Newbury Run faded 03-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

16
18-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 9

Beat: General Assembly (IRE) | Jax Edge (GB) won next/later | Al Barez (GB) placed next/later, Lequinto (IRE) placed next/later

07-10-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: After Love (IRE), Addarella (IRE), Unico (GB) | Addarella (IRE) won next/later | After Love (IRE) placed next/later, Unico (GB) placed next/later

12-09-2025 | Chester Finished 5

Beat: Twirler (GB), Winter Crown (GB), Hallowed Time (IRE) | Twirler (GB) won next/later, Winter Crown (GB) won next/later | Count dOrsay (IRE) placed next/later, Giant (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating69
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 66
Fast 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 67
All-weather 6 2W / 4P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 88%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (A)6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +20lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +20lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +20lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 65 | FFR 73 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +20
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Edward Smyth-Osbourne
Jockey Harry Vigors(7)
Age 4
Draw 4
OR 65
Avg OR 63.2
OR vs Field +1.8
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 2351-9
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 11 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 110.1% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 25.16s recorded | FSP 110.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 5f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile6
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-02-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 1 1:1.93 61.9
03-07-2025 Newbury Good To Firm 5 1:1.38 61.4
18-05-2026 Windsor Good 9 0:59.93 59.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 40% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 31 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/1 OwnerRectory Farm Racing Partnership
Sire Cable Bay Dam Sarabi Mshairi Damsire Poet's Voice
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this courseDistance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
18-05-2026 Windsor 9 2.2 Neutral finish
07-10-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
12-09-2025 Chester 5 2.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
03-07-2025 | Newbury
Rating 60 OR 62
26-07-2025 | Windsor
Rating 66 OR 61
15-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 67 OR 63
12-09-2025 | Chester
Rating 59 OR 64
07-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 69 OR 63
18-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 46 OR 67
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:1.93 | 1:1.38 | 0:59.93

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 5 | 9

Approx winning time58.41s
Last win at trip1:1.93 | Wolverhampton (AW) | 24-02-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +3.52s | OR 58 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
18-05-2026 Windsor | 5f | Good | Class 5 9 11/1 67 46 29 2.2 0:59.93 GREY - below benchmark
07-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 1 7/1 63 69 2 0 1:16.89 GREY - below benchmark
12-09-2025 Chester | 6f | Good | Class 5 5 7/2 64 59 24 2.2 1:16.50 GREY - below benchmark
15-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 5 3 5/2F 63 67 50 0.1 1:12.76 GREY - below benchmark
26-07-2025 Windsor | 6f | Good | Class 5 2 15/8F 61 66 43 0.5 1:12.26 GREY - below benchmark
03-07-2025 Newbury | 5f | Good To Firm | Class 5 5 13/2 62 60 54 0.5 1:1.49 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+20lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.1 and winning TS par is around 56.9. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
La Belle Forest Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 61.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR50
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-18lb below mark
FFR 50 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%even finish
101.9% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score39.3raw
Agreement3/6
FFR50-18lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+22lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.2
Variance Very steady 4.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2
Ceiling Par capable 2.5 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Ffos Las Competitive 04-06-2026
7 Southwell (AW) Run faded 09-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 13-03-2026
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Solid effort 08-11-2025
5 York Run faded 10-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

10
04-06-2026 | Ffos Las Finished 6

Beat: Tie Fighter (IRE), Arishka's Dream (GB) | Carefree Dream (GB) placed next/later

09-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 7

Beat: Queensmaite (GB) | Alfa Duplicate (IRE) won next/later, Naanas Shadow (IRE) won next/later | Artista (IRE) placed next/later, Call Margot (IRE) placed next/later

13-03-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Von Trotter (GB), Skip To Victory (GB), Whiskey Kisses (IRE) | Tickettothestars (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 50%
Pace shape 55%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs3/5
Best similar rating73
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 63
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 3 1W / 2P Peak rating 73
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 39%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 42%
FFR vs OR gives +22lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +22lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +22lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 68 | FFR 50 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +22
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Archie Watson
Jockey Edward Greatrex
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 68
Avg OR 63.2
OR vs Field +4.8
Rating 52
TS 59
Form 53-176
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 23.91s recorded | FSP 101.9%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 5f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile3
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
13-03-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 0:57.60 57.6
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 7 0:58.64 58.6
04-06-2026 Ffos Las Good To Soft 6 1:1.81 61.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 41% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 14 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerSheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum
Sire Mehmas Dam Hard Forest Damsire Hard Spun
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Prominent - pressed leader over 2f out - weakened over 1f out (trainer's rep had no explanation for the poor form shown; vet had nothing to report)(op 13/8)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
04-06-2026 Ffos Las 6 2.2 Neutral finish
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 7 2 Run faded
13-03-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
10-10-2025 | York
Rating 63 OR Unrated
08-11-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 69 OR Unrated
13-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 73 OR Unrated
09-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 52 OR 72
04-06-2026 | Ffos Las
Rating -- OR 70
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 0:57.60 | 0:58.64 | 1:1.81

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 7 | 6

Approx winning time58.41s
Last win at trip0:57.60 | Southwell (AW) | 13-03-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -0.81s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
04-06-2026 Ffos Las | 5f | Good To Soft | Class 5 6 6/1 70 -- -- 2.2 -- GREY - no timing read
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 5 7 11/8F 72 52 48 2 0:58.41 GOLD - faster than par
13-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 1 85/40F -- 73 59 0 0:57.60 GOLD - faster than par
08-11-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 3 3/1 -- 69 37 0.2 1:14.27 GREY - below benchmark
10-10-2025 York | 6f | Good | Class 3 5 100/30 -- 63 51 0.5 1:14.70 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+22lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.1 and winning TS par is around 56.9. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.1 | TS edge +2.1. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
J Street Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 44.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Startling Distance specialist
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 28.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Torfrida Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 13.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Fantasy Obsessor Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 9.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Solid Bond Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:35 | Lingfield

6:35 | Lingfield | 11.5f

Class 4 | Good | Gatwick Kia PV5 Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 83 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR74.52 rated runners | Top OR 78: Cape Fear
Winning Time Par2m 33.50s3 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos low
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Cape Fear leads the contextual model at 33.4
  • Clearer top profile: +24.9 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 33.50s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race Handy racer in a likely tactical race. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield0
Hold-up1
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Cape FearRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 52.0 2-3-2-3-5 9-2 2 OR 78 87 +9lb evn +3.5 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 63% 61% 1/6 101 D Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
GarrinchaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 9.0 2 10-2 3 OR -- 115 -- 9/2 -- Rest developing Big drop back Solid field 50% 57% 1/6 108 D Developing WATCH ONLY
Golden StepRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 8.5 3-3 8-9 4 OR -- 57 -- 18/1 -- Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 50% 52% 0/6 95 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Al MasloolRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 5.4 11-5-7-3-5 9-2 5 OR 71 59 -12lb 11/1 -3.5 Quick return Up in trip Solid field 50% 56% 0/6 105 E Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
Moon ZabeelRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 4.0 -- 9-0 7 OR -- -- -- 7/2 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
ArgenteusRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-2 6 OR -- -- -- 10/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Joanna HiffernanRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.8 4-6 9-11 1 OR -- 83 -- 9/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 47% 0/6 93 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Cape Fear

Cape Fear profiles as a prominent with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 1/6. Handy racer in a likely tactical race

Main Danger Garrincha

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Cape Fear Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 52.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement1/6
FFR87
Speed101
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+9lb ahead of mark
FFR 87 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score33.4raw
Agreement1/6
FFR87+9lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +2.5
Variance Very steady 3.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.7 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Redcar Solid effort 26-05-2026
3 Windsor Run faded 11-05-2026
2 Beverley Solid effort 23-04-2026
3 Bath Run faded 05-04-2026
5 Brighton Competitive 16-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

7
26-05-2026 | Redcar Finished 2

Beat: Talitha Rouge (IRE), Poppeye (GB), Champion Lawman (IRE)

11-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 3

Beat: Probation (GB), Relentless Hero (GB), Billingsgate Gold (GB) | Relentless Hero (GB) won next/later | My Mate Roger (IRE) placed next/later, Probation (GB) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Beverley Finished 2

Beat: Three No Trumps (GB), Le Morbihan (FR), Al Maslool (GB) | Fighters Spirit (IRE) won next/later | Mayflower Billy (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 63% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 48%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/5
Best similar rating77
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 77
Fast 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 80
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 61% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 29%
Mark room 91%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +13lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +13lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 78 | FFR 87 | Best FFR 91 | FFR edge +13
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Balding
Jockey Callum Hutchinson
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 78
Avg OR 74.5
OR vs Field +3.5
Rating 77
TS 56
Form 5-3232
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile4
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
23-04-2026 Beverley Good 2 2:5.17 125.2
11-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 3 2:9.29 129.3
26-05-2026 Redcar Good To Firm 2 2:5.56 125.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 23 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP10/11F OwnerKingsclere Racing Club
Sire Kameko Dam Cape Spirit Damsire Cape Cross
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Raced in second - pressed leader 4f out - led over 2f out - soon hung right - kept on inside final furlong - reduced lead towards finish - headed final strides(op 5/2 tchd 6/5)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
26-05-2026 Redcar 2 0.8 Fast finish
11-05-2026 Windsor 3 5.5 Run faded
23-04-2026 Beverley 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
16-10-2025 | Brighton
Rating 56 OR Unrated
05-04-2026 | Bath
Rating 70 OR Unrated
23-04-2026 | Beverley
Rating 77 OR Unrated
11-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 76 OR 78
26-05-2026 | Redcar
Rating 80 OR 78
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:5.17 | 2:9.29 | 2:5.56

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 3 | 2

Approx winning time2m 33.50s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
26-05-2026 Redcar | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 4 2 10/11F 78 80 71 0.8 2:05.56 GOLD - faster than par
11-05-2026 Windsor | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 100/30 78 76 55 5.5 2:09.29 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Beverley | 1m2f | Good | Class 4 2 5/4F -- 77 49 0.5 2:05.17 GOLD - faster than par
05-04-2026 Bath | 1m2f | Good | Class 4 3 7/1 -- 70 56 0.1 2:11.84 GOLD - faster than par
16-10-2025 Brighton | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 4 5 16/1 -- 56 17 0.2 1:36.53 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 88 and winning TS par is around 51.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -11.0 | TS edge +4.7. Benchmark fit: -0.3.

Model agreement 1/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Garrincha Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Golden Step Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Al Maslool Closer
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Moon Zabeel Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Argenteus Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Joanna Hiffernan Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:50 | Leopardstown

6:50 | Leopardstown | 9f

0-60 | Good | 1878 At 3Arena Handicap (Div I)

Race Confidence 80 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR51.718 rated runners | Top OR 60: Shanlieve
Winning Time Par2m 01.51s3 race course/distance sample | approximate
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band 0-60
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos medium
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Limestone Red leads the contextual model at 41.9
  • Clearer top profile: +17.1 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 01.51s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race Handy racer in a likely tactical race. 9 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield7
Hold-up1
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Limestone RedRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 8-4-1-5-2-4 9-4 7 OR 48 75 +27lb 8/1 -3.7 Layoff check Up in trip Weak field 59% 52% 4/6 96 E Well in +40 CAUTION PROFILE
Ella's GoldRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 46.8 2-12-2-2-10-7 9-3 8 OR 58 76 +18lb 11/4 +6.3 Quick return Big step up Weak field 58% 69% 1/6 96 D Well in +25 WATCH ONLY
Half NutzRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed 32.1 3-5-8-5-8-11 8-10 3 OR 40 68 +28lb 12/1 -11.7 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 59% 58% 4/6 97 D Well in +37 CAUTION PROFILE
RampageRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 16.8 7-6-8-13-7-11 9-10 9 OR 54 73 +19lb 11/1 +2.3 Freshened up Up in trip Weak field 62% 62% 1/6 97 B Well in +23 CAUTION PROFILE
ChipsrdownRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 15.8 3-2-11-5-3-15 9-11 5 OR 55 75 +20lb 7/2 +3.3 Quick return Up in trip Weak field 54% 60% 1/6 101 E Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
ShanlieveRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 13.2 15-17-7-7-8 10-2 11 OR 60 31 -29lb 33/1 +8.3 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 55% 0/6 86 E Well in +12 CAUTION PROFILE
LohengrinRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 11.4 11-14-20-13-22 9-12 10 OR 56 56 +0lb 33/1 +4.3 Standard rest Trip move developing Weak field 54% 54% 2/6 84 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
William F BrowneRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 10.3 7-17-7-9-10 10-0 12 OR 58 107 +49lb 28/1 +6.3 Rest developing Big drop back Weak field 54% 52% 0/6 87 E Well in +49 CAUTION PROFILE
LustRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 9.2 3-19-11-5-10-8 9-10 16 OR 54 73 +19lb 9/1 +2.3 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 61% 1/6 96 E Well in +19 WATCH ONLY
Max MeridiusRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 9.0 5-12-9-11-10-10 9-12 2 OR 56 97 +41lb 14/1 +4.3 Rest developing Big drop back Weak field 56% 58% 0/6 79 E Well in +41 CAUTION PROFILE
HielorayRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 8.5 2-6-8-9-13-9 9-0 4 OR 44 79 +35lb 17/2 -7.7 Long absence Up in trip Weak field 56% 64% 1/6 96 E Well in +36 CAUTION PROFILE
Genuine JimRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 6.2 13-22-19-7-9-6 9-11 14 OR 55 33 -22lb 20/1 +3.3 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 56% 59% 1/6 72 E Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Pinball WizardRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 4.5 7-12-7-14-3-6 9-6 1 OR 50 59 +9lb 22/1 -1.7 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 59% 1/6 97 E Well in +30 CAUTION PROFILE
AkashaaRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 0.9 6-2-5-8-11-14 9-6 18 OR 50 79 +29lb 8/1 -1.7 Long absence Up in trip Weak field 58% 67% 1/6 95 D Well in +38 WATCH ONLY
Nephin MountainRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 0.6 8-4-10-4-13-10 8-11 13 OR 52 45 -7lb 16/1 +0.3 Quick return Big step up Weak field 54% 60% 1/6 91 E Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
SmoothRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge -1.8 8-9-7-11-13-7 9-0 6 OR 44 72 +28lb 22/1 -7.7 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 56% 61% 0/6 94 E Well in +28 CAUTION PROFILE
Jewels LegacyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -3.8 10-6-9-9-13 8-7 17 OR 48 36 -12lb 50/1 -3.7 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 59% 0/6 93 E Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
Curious JaneRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed -5.7 11-12-12 8-8 15 OR 49 59 +10lb 33/1 -2.7 Freshened up Big step up Weak field 54% 53% 1/6 85 E Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Limestone Red

Limestone Red profiles as a prominent with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is E. Model alignment is 4/6. Handy racer in a likely tactical race

Main Danger Ella's Gold

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Limestone Red Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR75
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+27lb ahead of mark
FFR 75 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.7% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score41.9raw
Agreement4/6
FFR75+27lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWell handicapped+40lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.6
Variance Very steady 3.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.4
Ceiling Par capable 3.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 20-03-2026
4 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 13-02-2026
1 Dundalk (AW) Strong run 13-01-2026
5 Dundalk (AW) Finished well 10-12-2025
2 Dundalk (AW) Solid effort 05-11-2025
4 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Finished well 19-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 8 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

26
20-03-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 8

Beat: Doctor Grace (IRE), Land Of The Giants (IRE), Thompson Gunner (IRE) | Doctor Grace (IRE) won next/later, Jawhary (GB) won next/later | Baila Conmigo (IRE) placed next/later, Storm Eric (IRE) placed next/later

13-02-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Captain Ciano (IRE), Not Even Maybe (IRE), Yutori (GB) | Daonethatgotaway (GB) won next/later, Palazzo Persico (IRE) won next/later | Marians Gal (IRE) placed next/later

13-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Mythical Rock (IRE), Aingeal Dorcha (IRE), Master Garvey (IRE) | Aingeal Dorcha (IRE) won next/later, Mythical Rock (IRE) won next/later | Mapa (CAN) placed next/later, Master Garvey (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 59% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 44%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 55
Good 6 0W / 0P Peak rating 66
Fast 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 67
All-weather 14 2W / 4P Peak rating 74
Placement evidence 52% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 25%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
FFR vs OR gives +40lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +40lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +40lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 48 | FFR 75 | Best FFR 88 | FFR edge +40
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tracey Collins
Jockey Ronan Whelan
Age 6
Draw 7
OR 48
Avg OR 51.7
OR vs Field -3.7
Rating 59
TS 62
Form 25-148
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 103.7% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile3
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
16-08-2024 Cork (IRE) Good To Firm 3 1:50.63 110.6
17-09-2024 Punchestown (IRE) Good 10 2:0.53 120.5
02-07-2025 Tipperary (IRE) Good To Firm 5 1:58.49 118.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF -- Trainer recent-form data unavailable
Freshness 90 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.5 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerMrs Caroline Hendron
Sire Cotai Glory Dam Kocna Damsire Aussie Rules
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Took keen hold - pressed leader - in touch with leaders after 3f - weakened inside final furlong(op 13/2 tchd 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
20-03-2026 Dundalk (AW) 8 1.2 Run faded
13-02-2026 Dundalk (AW) 4 1.2 Neutral finish
13-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
19-09-2025 | Dundalk (AW) (IRE)
Rating 62 OR 59
05-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 63 OR 59
10-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 62 OR 60
13-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 68 OR 59
13-02-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 62 OR 64
20-03-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 59 OR 64
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:50.63 | 2:0.53 | 1:58.49

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 10 | 5

Approx winning time2m 01.51s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
20-03-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 8 6/1 64 59 35 1.2 2:18.97 GREY - below benchmark
13-02-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 4 9/2 64 62 26 1.2 2:19.32 GREY - below benchmark
13-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 1 5/1 59 68 62 0 2:16.33 GREY - below benchmark
10-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 5 5/2F 60 62 59 0.2 2:17.89 GREY - below benchmark
05-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 2 13/2 59 63 45 0.8 2:18.00 GREY - below benchmark
19-09-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 4 5/1J 59 62 30 0.8 2:20.54 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+40lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.3 and winning TS par is around 67. Runner versus par: rating edge -16.3 | TS edge -5.0. Benchmark fit: -1.1.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Ella's Gold Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 46.8
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement1/6
FFR76
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+18lb ahead of mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score24.8raw
Agreement1/6
FFR76+18lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+25lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +1.8
Variance Very steady 3.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Below requirement -3.5 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Leopardstown (IRE) Solid effort 11-06-2026
12 Fairyhouse (IRE) Steady run 05-06-2026
2 Gowran Park Solid effort 20-10-2025
2 Naas (IRE) Solid effort 18-09-2025
10 Galway (IRE) Troubled run 01-08-2025
7 Roscommon (IRE) Competitive 19-05-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

13
11-06-2026 | Leopardstown (IRE) Finished 2

Beat: Nibras Rainbow (IRE), Roderick (GB), Staywitherjohnny (IRE) | Roderick (GB) placed next/later

05-06-2026 | Fairyhouse (IRE) Finished 12

Beat: Thegooseiscooked (IRE), Barretstown (IRE)

20-10-2025 | Gowran Park Finished 2

Beat: Bullet Bourbon (IRE), Balance Of Trade (IRE), Canon Law (IRE) | A Pretty Penny (IRE) won next/later, Imnotleavinyou (IRE) won next/later | Balance Of Trade (IRE) placed next/later, Believe Believe (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating43
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 3P Peak rating 56
Good 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 43
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +25lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +25lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +25lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 58 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge +25
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Matthew J Smith
Jockey Ben Coen
Age 3
Draw 8
OR 58
Avg OR 51.7
OR vs Field +6.3
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 022-02
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Soft 2 2:4.78 124.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 29% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 7 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 29%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2F OwnerDebbie Kelly
Sire Galileo Gold Dam Coumlara Damsire High Chaparral
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) 2 0.5 Neutral finish
05-06-2026 Fairyhouse (IRE) 12 7 Neutral finish
20-10-2025 Gowran Park 2 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 2 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
19-05-2025 | Roscommon (IRE)
Rating 43 OR Unrated
01-08-2025 | Galway (IRE)
Rating 46 OR Unrated
18-09-2025 | Naas (IRE)
Rating 54 OR 51
20-10-2025 | Gowran Park
Rating 56 OR 56
05-06-2026 | Fairyhouse (IRE)
Rating -- OR 59
11-06-2026 | Leopardstown (IRE)
Rating -- OR 59
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:4.78

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time2m 01.51s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) | 9f | Soft | -- 2 9/2F 59 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
05-06-2026 Fairyhouse (IRE) | 10f | Good | -- 12 8/1 59 -- -- 7 -- GREY - no timing read
20-10-2025 Gowran Park | 7f | Heavy | -- 2 4/1 56 56 56 0.3 1:34.78 GOLD - faster than par
18-09-2025 Naas (IRE) | 1m | Yielding To Soft | -- 2 25/1 51 54 38 1.5 1:48.18 GOLD - faster than par
01-08-2025 Galway (IRE) | 7f | Yielding | -- 10 200/1 -- 46 13 1.2 1:33.03 GOLD - faster than par
19-05-2025 Roscommon (IRE) | 7½f | Good | -- 7 25/1 -- 43 -- 1.5 1:35.25 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+25lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.3 and winning TS par is around 67. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 1/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Half Nutz Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 32.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Rampage Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Chipsrdown Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 15.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Shanlieve Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 13.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lohengrin Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 11.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

William F Browne Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lust Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Max Meridius Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Hieloray Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Genuine Jim Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 6.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Pinball Wizard Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Akashaa Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.9
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Nephin Mountain Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Smooth Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Jewels Legacy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Curious Jane Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:00 | Southwell (AW)

7:00 | Southwell (AW) | 12f

Class 6 | Standard | Lionel Henry James Memorial Handicap

Race Confidence 73 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR55.76 rated runners | Top OR 60: Mountbatten
Winning Time Par2m 38.81s38 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-65
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos low
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Mountbatten leads the contextual model at 53.0
  • Clearer top profile: +23.2 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 38.81s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 1 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent0
Midfield3
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
MountbattenRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 8-13-7-10-7-8 9-9 2 OR 60 86 +26lb 11/10 +4.3 Long absence Big step up Modest field 65% 71% 4/6 94 E Well in +34 PRICE DEPENDENT
DalamaraRun style: CloserFinish: Limited sectional edge 39.9 4-2-4-1-7-7 9-7 6 OR 58 50 -8lb 6/1 +2.3 Standard rest Big step up Modest field 61% 66% 2/6 89 E Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
Spirit DreamerRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 30.2 7-6 9-8 5 OR 59 72 +13lb 7/4 +3.3 Standard rest Big step up Modest field 58% 61% 1/6 91 E Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
ManbearpigRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 10.4 5-5-5-5 9-8 3 OR 59 72 +13lb 8/1 +3.3 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 56% 57% 1/6 96 E Well in +16 WATCH ONLY
Project KinsmanRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 10.3 8-3-2-8-8-9 8-10 1 OR 47 39 -8lb 14/1 -8.7 Standard rest Big step up Modest field 54% 56% 2/6 90 D Well in +33 CAUTION PROFILE
Echo ValleyRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 1.8 4-7-10-7-7 9-0 4 OR 51 45 -6lb 18/1 -4.7 Standard rest Big step up Modest field 52% 51% 1/6 92 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Mountbatten

Mountbatten profiles as a midfield with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is E. Model alignment is 4/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Dalamara

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Mountbatten Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR86
Speed94
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+26lb ahead of mark
FFR 86 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.6% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score53.0raw
Agreement4/6
FFR86+26lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+34lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.2
Variance Reliable 6.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5
Ceiling Below requirement -2.7 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Jebel Ali Competitive 15-02-2026
13 Meydan Troubled run 23-01-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 22-12-2025
10 Meydan Run faded 19-12-2025
7 Southwell (AW) Run faded 12-12-2025
8 Abu Dhabi Run faded 06-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

23
15-02-2026 | Jebel Ali Finished 8

Beat: Local Dynasty (IRE), Qareeb (USA)

23-01-2026 | Meydan Finished 13

Beat: Apollo One (GB), Witness Stand (GB) | Elnajmm (GB) won next/later, Khanjar (IRE) won next/later | Andreas Vesalius (IRE) placed next/later, Apollo One (GB) placed next/later

22-12-2025 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 7

Beat: Lux Aeterna (GB), Jerseygeordie (GB), Buckland Belle (GB) | Buckland Belle (GB) won next/later, Felix Gem (GB) won next/later | Del Corso (GB) placed next/later, Guildmaster (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 65% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 95%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Class Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandTesting
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 100
Good 12 3W / 3P Peak rating 96
Fast 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 94
All-weather 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 71% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 100%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 50%
Class benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +34lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +34lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +34lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 60 | FFR 86 | Best FFR 94 | FFR edge +34
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Sir Mark Prescott Bt
Jockey Stevie Donohoe
Age 2
Draw 2
OR 60
Avg OR 55.7
OR vs Field +4.3
Rating 78
TS 67
Form 877-
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 106.6% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 23.49s recorded | FSP 106.6%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
22-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 7 1:40.19 100.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 67% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 178 days Freshness caution
Micro score +0.5 trainer RTF positive at 67%; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP22/1 OwnerHalo Racing Services
Sire Japan Dam Monami Damsire Sholokhov
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
HC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

Always behind

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
15-02-2026 Jebel Ali 8 1.2 Neutral finish
23-01-2026 Meydan 13 3 Neutral finish
22-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) 7 0.8 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 4 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
06-12-2025 | Abu Dhabi
Rating 96 OR 97
12-12-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 13 OR Unrated
19-12-2025 | Meydan
Rating 100 OR 97
22-12-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 57 OR Unrated
23-01-2026 | Meydan
Rating 73 OR 97
15-02-2026 | Jebel Ali
Rating 78 OR 97
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:40.19

Last 3 trip positions: 7

Approx winning time2m 38.81s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
15-02-2026 Jebel Ali | 1m | Standard | Class 1 8 22/1 97 78 -- 1.2 1:39.00 GOLD - faster than par
23-01-2026 Meydan | 7f | Good | Class 1 13 60/1 97 73 67 3 1:24.86 GOLD - faster than par
22-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 7 400/1 -- 57 29 0.8 1:40.19 GOLD - faster than par
19-12-2025 Meydan | 7f | Yielding | Class 1 10 70/1 97 100 98 0.2 1:23.76 GOLD - faster than par
12-12-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 7 66/1 -- 13 -- 1.2 1:33.25 GOLD - faster than par
06-12-2025 Abu Dhabi | 7f | Good | Class 1 8 25/1 97 96 -- 1.2 1:22.64 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+34lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 9

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65.5 and winning TS par is around 37.3. Runner versus par: rating edge +12.5 | TS edge +29.7. Benchmark fit: 9.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Dalamara Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 39.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance suitability is a caution (dei e).
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR50
Speed89
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-8lb below mark
FFR 50 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
89 Par 100
FSP%even finish
98.5% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score29.8raw
Agreement2/6
FFR50-8lb vs OR
SpeedScore89Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+26lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small caution nudge

Volatile; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge -0.1
Variance Volatile 14.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 0.4
Ceiling Par capable 2.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Wetherby Competitive 04-06-2026
2 Ripon Run faded 08-05-2026
4 Redcar Competitive 20-04-2026
1 Newcastle (AW) Finished well 02-12-2025
7 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 04-10-2025
7 Haydock Steady run 05-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

12
04-06-2026 | Wetherby Finished 4

Beat: Rogue Desire (FR), Sovereign Bright (GB), Skirt Around (USA) | Stepanov (IRE) placed next/later

08-05-2026 | Ripon Finished 2

Beat: Clear Above (GB), Hood Wink (GB), Resdev Time (GB) | Clear Above (GB) placed next/later, Masaban (IRE) placed next/later

20-04-2026 | Redcar Finished 4

Beat: Resdev Time (GB), Mereside Princess (IRE), Hood Wink (GB) | Hood Wink (GB) won next/later, Mereside Princess (IRE) won next/later | Amazing Anita (GB) placed next/later, Battenburg Belle (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 61% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 65%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating57
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 59
Fast 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 60
All-weather 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 57
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 57%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +26lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +26lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +26lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 58 | FFR 50 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge +26
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ben Haslam
Jockey Andrew Mullen
Age 3
Draw 6
OR 58
Avg OR 55.7
OR vs Field +2.3
Rating 60
TS 51
Form 71-424
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Limited sectional edge
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLimited sectional edge
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Limited sectional edge Limited
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 27.79s recorded | FSP 98.5%
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
04-06-2026 Wetherby Good To Firm 4 2:7.43 127.4
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 45% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 14 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2 OwnerMps Racing Partners, Shapiro & Clifford
Sire Ulysses Dam Lady Lekki Damsire Champs Elysees
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Slowly away - in rear - switched to far side over 6f out - headway over 1f out - kept on final 110yds

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
04-06-2026 Wetherby 4 2.2 Neutral finish
08-05-2026 Ripon 2 4 Run faded
20-04-2026 Redcar 4 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 3 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
05-09-2025 | Haydock
Rating 41 OR Unrated
04-10-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 44 OR Unrated
02-12-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 57 OR 54
20-04-2026 | Redcar
Rating 60 OR 58
08-05-2026 | Ripon
Rating 59 OR 58
04-06-2026 | Wetherby
Rating -- OR 58
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:7.43

Last 3 trip positions: 4

Approx winning time2m 38.81s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
04-06-2026 Wetherby | 10f | Good To Firm | Class 6 4 9/2 58 -- -- 2.2 -- GREY - no timing read
08-05-2026 Ripon | 1m | Good | Class 6 2 11/2 58 59 29 4 1:43.35 GOLD - faster than par
20-04-2026 Redcar | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 6 4 25/1 58 60 51 0.3 1:37.90 GOLD - faster than par
02-12-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 6 1 16/1 54 57 50 0 1:41.06 GOLD - faster than par
04-10-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 7 200/1 -- 44 -- 0.3 1:18.52 GOLD - faster than par
05-09-2025 Haydock | 6f | Good | Class 2 7 100/1 -- 41 14 3.2 1:16.65 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+26lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65.5 and winning TS par is around 37.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.5 | TS edge +13.7. Benchmark fit: 3.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Spirit Dreamer Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 30.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Manbearpig Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.4
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Project Kinsman Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 10.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Echo Valley Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:10 | Lingfield

7:10 | Lingfield | 16.5f

Class 5 | Good | Free Tips At chracingclub.com Handicap

Race Confidence 82 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR70.36 rated runners | Top OR 72: Kitty Foyle
Winning Time ParAwaiting timing benchmark0 race distance-only sample | approximate
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-75
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Rogue Empire leads the contextual model at 46.8
  • Clearer top profile: +8.8 gap to nearest rival
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 3 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield2
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Rogue EmpireRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 71.0 1-1-3-6-3-3 9-3 3 OR 66 79 +13lb 4/6 -4.3 Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 71% 73% 3/6 114 C Well in +23 PRICE DEPENDENT
Kitty FoyleRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 51.9 2-1-3-5-3-4 9-9 1 OR 72 102 +30lb 9/2 +1.7 Rest developing Big drop back Solid field 58% 67% 1/6 100 D Well in +30 WATCH ONLY
NaasmaRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 45.0 4-5-4-4-1-1 9-9 6 OR 72 81 +9lb 15/2 +1.7 Layoff check Down in trip Solid field 66% 73% 2/6 98 A Well in +16 WATCH ONLY
An Bradan FeasaRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 42.5 3-2-1-4-1-1 9-9 2 OR 72 88 +16lb 6/1 +1.7 Rest developing Down in trip Solid field 66% 78% 2/6 71 A Well in +39 CAUTION PROFILE
Diamond BayRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 13.9 5-7-6-14-3-4 9-5 4 OR 68 69 +1lb 7/1 -2.3 Standard rest Big step up Solid field 58% 65% 1/6 96 D Well in +18 WATCH ONLY
Love Is GoldenRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 7.8 9-8-1-3-1 9-9 5 OR 72 44 -28lb 50/1 +1.7 Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 61% 65% 0/6 94 C Well in +44 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Rogue Empire

Rogue Empire profiles as a front-runner with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 3/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Kitty Foyle

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Rogue Empire Front-end controller
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 71.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR79
Speed114
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+13lb ahead of mark
FFR 79 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
114 Par 100
FSP%faded late
95.9% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score46.8raw
Agreement3/6
FFR79+13lb vs OR
SpeedScore114Elite clock figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+23lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Variable; High bounce risk; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +1.9
Variance Variable 10.2% volatility
Bounce High bounce risk Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.8
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 14.1 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Kempton (AW) Finished well 10-06-2026
1 Lingfield Strong run 18-05-2026
3 Kempton (AW) Run faded 04-05-2026
6 Chelmsford (AW) Troubled run 09-10-2025
3 Kempton (AW) Run faded 18-09-2025
3 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 04-09-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

4
10-06-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Vilaine Verlaine (GB), Tarbat Ness (GB), Karthon (GB)

18-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 1

Beat: Balgowan (IRE), Golden Samba (GB), Smokey Malone (GB) | Smokey Malone (GB) placed next/later

04-05-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Crackergee (GB), Karthon (GB), Capone (GER) | Crackergee (GB) won next/later | Now The Eagle (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 71% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 50%
Pace shape 100%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Pace shape Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating70
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 70
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 6 1W / 4P Peak rating 70
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +23lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +23lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +23lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 66 | FFR 79 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +23
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Roger Teal
Jockey Owen Lewis(5)
Age 4
Draw 3
OR 66
Avg OR 70.3
OR vs Field -4.3
Rating 60
TS --
Form 36-311
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 95.9% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 22.53s recorded | FSP 95.9%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
18-09-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 3 3:32.48 212.5
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 3 3:40.21 220.2
10-06-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 1 3:37.50 217.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 40% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 8 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/1 OwnerThe Idle B's
Sire Time Test Dam Magic Meg Damsire Raven's Pass
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Led - edged left and headed over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 18/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
10-06-2026 Kempton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
18-05-2026 Lingfield 1 0 Fast finish
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) 3 3.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
04-09-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 68 OR 65
18-09-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 70 OR 64
09-10-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 40 OR 64
04-05-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 60 OR 62
18-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating 70 OR 60
10-06-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating -- OR 66
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 3:32.48 | 3:40.21 | 3:37.50

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 3 | 1

Approx winning timeAwaiting timing benchmark
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
10-06-2026 Kempton (AW) | 16f | Standard To Slow | Class 5 1 5/1 66 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
18-05-2026 Lingfield | 2m½f | Good | Class 6 1 4/1 60 70 64 0 3:35.80 GREY - no timing read
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) | 2m | Standard To Slow | Class 5 3 14/1 62 60 -- 3.5 3:40.00 GREY - no timing read
09-10-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 6 6 4/1 64 40 35 2 3:3.11 GREY - no timing read
18-09-2025 Kempton (AW) | 2m | Standard To Slow | Class 5 3 15/2 64 70 -- 0.5 3:32.48 GREY - no timing read
04-09-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 6 3 12/1 65 68 4 0.1 3:32.28 GREY - no timing read
Handicap Well handicapped

+23lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Benchmark evidence is still developing for this course, class, going and distance profile.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Kitty Foyle Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 51.9
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement1/6
FFR102
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+30lb ahead of mark
FFR 102 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.5% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score29.5raw
Agreement1/6
FFR102+30lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+30lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +3.9
Variance Very steady 4.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.5
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Huntingdon Finished well 19-05-2026
1 Wincanton Strong run 12-04-2026
3 Kempton Finished well 24-11-2025
5 Exeter Run faded 07-11-2025
3 Stratford Solid effort 18-10-2025
4 Goodwood Run faded 24-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

10
19-05-2026 | Huntingdon Finished 2

Beat: Tiger Orchid (IRE), Thank You Maam (GB), Billy Boi Blue (GB) | Sunray Shadow (GB) won next/later, Tiger Orchid (IRE) won next/later

12-04-2026 | Wincanton Finished 1

Beat: Sinchi Roca (IRE)

24-11-2025 | Kempton Finished 3

Beat: Getalead (IRE), Jimmy Hurdstrom (IRE), Lunar Power (IRE) | Court In A Storm (IRE) placed next/later, Everyonesgame (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs4/6
Best similar rating122
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 1W / 3P Peak rating 117
Good 7 2W / 5P Peak rating 122
Fast 5 0W / 4P Peak rating 119
All-weather 11 0W / 1P Peak rating 74
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +30lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +30lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +30lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 102 | Best FFR 102 | FFR edge +30
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Daisy Hitchins
Jockey Millie Wonnacott(5)
Age 6
Draw 1
OR 72
Avg OR 70.3
OR vs Field +1.7
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form /5224-
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.5% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 24.97s recorded | FSP 100.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile4
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-06-2025 Newbury Good To Firm 2 3:34.74 214.7
24-07-2025 Newbury Good To Firm 2 3:29.43 209.4
24-08-2025 Goodwood Good To Firm 4 3:30.22 210.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 14% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness -- Freshness data unavailable
Micro score -0.5 trainer RTF cold at 14%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerTroika Racing
Sire Teofilo Dam Kazimiera Damsire Dubawi
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-05-2026 Huntingdon 2 1.5 Fast finish
12-04-2026 Wincanton 1 0 Neutral finish
24-11-2025 Kempton 3 2.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
24-08-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 54 OR 73
18-10-2025 | Stratford
Rating 117 OR 118
07-11-2025 | Exeter
Rating 105 OR 117
24-11-2025 | Kempton
Rating 115 OR 115
12-04-2026 | Wincanton
Rating 122 OR 116
19-05-2026 | Huntingdon
Rating 119 OR 120
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 3:34.74 | 3:29.43 | 3:30.22

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 2 | 4

Approx winning timeAwaiting timing benchmark
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-05-2026 Huntingdon | 3m1f | Good To Firm | Class 3 2 100/30 120 119 111 1.5 6:11.14 GREY - no timing read
12-04-2026 Wincanton | 3m½f | Good | Class 4 1 4/1 116 122 91 0 6:06.14 GREY - no timing read
24-11-2025 Kempton | 3m½f | Good | Class 4 3 17/2 115 115 104 2.5 6:20.44 GREY - no timing read
07-11-2025 Exeter | 2m2½f | Good | Class 4 5 13/2 117 105 97 18 4:32.85 GREY - no timing read
18-10-2025 Stratford | 2m½f | Good | Class 4 3 2/1 118 117 72 1.2 3:55.66 GREY - no timing read
24-08-2025 Goodwood | 2m | Good To Firm | Class 3 4 5/1 73 54 53 16 3:30.91 GREY - no timing read
Handicap Well handicapped

+30lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Benchmark evidence is still developing for this course, class, going and distance profile.

Model agreement 1/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Naasma Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 45.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no major model risk flagged.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement2/6
FFR81
Speed98
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+9lb ahead of mark
FFR 81 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
119.4% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score20.5raw
Agreement2/6
FFR81+9lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+16lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.0
Variance Reliable 6.3% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 4.3 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Kempton (AW) Steady run 25-03-2026
5 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 31-01-2026
4 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 10-01-2026
4 Epsom Steady run 28-09-2025
1 Windsor Troubled run 08-09-2025
1 Windsor Strong run 18-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

20
25-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Sword Of Wessex (IRE) | High Point (IRE) won next/later, Sword Of Wessex (IRE) won next/later | Fleurman (IRE) placed next/later

31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Vice President (IRE), Bashful Boy (IRE), Knight Templar (GB) | Berkshire Sundance (IRE) won next/later, Haaland (IRE) won next/later | Educator (GB) placed next/later

10-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Tortured Soul (GB), Connie Moon (IRE), Raintown (IRE) | Charlies Choice (GB) won next/later, Wonder (GB) won next/later | Blue Universe (IRE) placed next/later, Damascus Steel (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating79
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 75
Good 6 1W / 4P Peak rating 79
Fast 7 2W / 5P Peak rating 77
All-weather 9 2W / 6P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 50%
Proven trip profile (A)6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +16lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +16lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +16lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 81 | Best FFR 88 | FFR edge +16
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Pat Phelan
Jockey Darragh Keenan
Age 7
Draw 6
OR 72
Avg OR 70.3
OR vs Field +1.7
Rating 71
TS 48
Form 14-454
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 13 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 119.4% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.39s recorded | FSP 119.4%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile6
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
26-03-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 2 3:31.97 212
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 5 3:30.93 210.9
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 4 3:32.62 212.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF -- Trainer recent-form data unavailable
Freshness 85 days Standard layoff
Micro score -0.5 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerP Wheatley
Sire Churchill Dam Music Show Damsire Noverre
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Taken down early - held up in rear - some headway over 1f out - outpaced inside final furlong(op 15/2 tchd 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 4 4.5 Neutral finish
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) 5 1.5 Fast finish
10-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) 4 0.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
18-08-2025 | Windsor
Rating 77 OR 70
08-09-2025 | Windsor
Rating 79 OR 72
28-09-2025 | Epsom
Rating 72 OR 74
10-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 78 OR 74
31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 78 OR 74
25-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 71 OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 3:31.97 | 3:30.93 | 3:32.62

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 5 | 4

Approx winning timeAwaiting timing benchmark
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 2m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 4 6/1 73 71 48 4.5 3:32.38 GREY - no timing read
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 4 5 20/1 74 78 15 1.5 3:30.93 GREY - no timing read
10-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 5 4 14/1 74 78 12 0.5 2:38.37 GREY - no timing read
28-09-2025 Epsom | 1m4f | Good | Class 4 4 11/1 74 72 54 4 2:42.55 GREY - no timing read
08-09-2025 Windsor | 1m3½f | Good | Class 5 1 8/1 72 79 66 0 2:26.95 GREY - no timing read
18-08-2025 Windsor | 1m3½f | Good To Firm | Class 5 1 9/4C 70 77 74 0 2:28.68 GREY - no timing read
Handicap Well handicapped

+16lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Benchmark evidence is still developing for this course, class, going and distance profile.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
An Bradan Feasa Distance specialist
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 42.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR88
Speed71
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR+16lb ahead of mark
FFR 88 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
71 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
115.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskRaw score needs more support
Model Score38.0raw
Agreement2/6
FFR88+16lb vs OR
SpeedScore71Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+39lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Volatile; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Regressing

confidence nudge +0.5
Variance Volatile 16.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.8
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 19.5 vs par
Curve Regressing Trend -2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Fakenham Solid effort 31-05-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Solid effort 12-05-2026
1 Chelmsford (AW) Strong run 27-11-2025
4 Southwell (AW) Competitive 03-11-2025
1 Southwell Finished well 02-10-2025
1 Worcester Finished well 05-09-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

4
31-05-2026 | Fakenham Finished 3

Beat: Blackwater Lilly (GB)

12-05-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Polling Day (IRE), The Truant (IRE), Bulldog Spirit (IRE)

27-11-2025 | Chelmsford (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Saratoga Gold (GB), D Day Arvalenreeva (IRE), Red Flyer (IRE) | Gemmari (GB) won next/later | D Day Arvalenreeva (IRE) placed next/later, Saratoga Gold (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating116
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 10 2W / 4P Peak rating 120
Good 7 2W / 4P Peak rating 120
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 78% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +39lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +39lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +39lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 88 | Best FFR 111 | FFR edge +39
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jack Jones
Jockey Dylan Hogan
Age 6
Draw 2
OR 72
Avg OR 70.3
OR vs Field +1.7
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 4441-2
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 115.5% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile6
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
27-11-2025 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 1 3:42.84 222.8
12-05-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 2 3:39.01 219
31-05-2026 Fakenham Good 3 3:52.09 232.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 43% Trainer form is steady
Freshness -- Freshness data unavailable
Micro score +0.0 API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/4 OwnerJack Jones
Sire Camelot Dam Grianan Ailigh Damsire Shantou
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 6.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
31-05-2026 Fakenham 3 18 Neutral finish
12-05-2026 Lingfield (AW) 2 1.2 Fast finish
27-11-2025 Chelmsford (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 5 runs with an official OR.
05-09-2025 | Worcester
Rating 116 OR 108
02-10-2025 | Southwell
Rating 113 OR 113
03-11-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 74 OR 71
27-11-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 78 OR 70
12-05-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 76 OR 72
31-05-2026 | Fakenham
Rating -- OR 116
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 3:42.84 | 3:39.01 | 3:52.09

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2 | 3

Approx winning timeAwaiting timing benchmark
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
31-05-2026 Fakenham | 16f | Good | Class 4 3 11/4 116 -- -- 18 -- GREY - no timing read
12-05-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 5 2 11/2 72 76 -- 1.2 3:39.01 GREY - no timing read
27-11-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 5 1 7/4 70 78 -- 0 3:42.84 GREY - no timing read
03-11-2025 Southwell (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 5 4 9/1 71 74 63 0.1 2:35.53 GREY - no timing read
02-10-2025 Southwell | 2m4½f | Good | Class 4 1 13/8F 113 113 71 0 5:3.00 GREY - no timing read
05-09-2025 Worcester | 2m | Good | Class 4 1 2/1 108 116 84 0 3:57.12 GREY - no timing read
Handicap Well handicapped

+39lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Benchmark evidence is still developing for this course, class, going and distance profile.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Diamond Bay Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 13.9
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Love Is Golden Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 7.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:20 | Leopardstown

7:20 | Leopardstown | 9f

0-60 | Good | 1878 At 3Arena Handicap (Div II)

Race Confidence 61 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR51.517 rated runners | Top OR 67: Queen Aethelflaed
Winning Time Par2m 01.51s3 race course/distance sample | approximate
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band 0-60
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos medium
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Rockbury Lad leads the contextual model at 33.1
  • Winning-time par: 2m 01.51s
Race shape Balanced context race Balanced setup suits adaptable/prominent profile. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders2
Prominent5
Midfield2
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Rockbury LadRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 65.0 10-10-3-2-9-5 10-1 11 OR 59 41 -18lb 25/1 +7.5 Quick return Up in trip Weak field 65% 71% 3/6 107 B Well in +28 CAUTION PROFILE
Nibras RainbowRun style: ProminentFinish: Sustained speed 60.6 3-1-16-6-3-9 9-6 7 OR 50 76 +26lb 11/4 -1.5 Quick return Up in trip Weak field 56% 58% 3/6 100 E Well in +36 CAUTION PROFILE
DeuteronomyRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 47.4 11-1-8-8-10-21 10-1 2 OR 59 42 -17lb 25/1 +7.5 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 65% 67% 2/6 100 C Well in +28 CAUTION PROFILE
Queen AethelflaedRun style: ProminentFinish: Limited sectional edge 32.8 1-2-12-8-2-3 10-9 12 OR 67 81 +14lb 5/2 +15.5 Quick return Trip move developing Weak field 67% 68% 2/6 92 A Well in +17 CAUTION PROFILE
Real PetiteRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 17.5 6-1-19-12-8 9-9 1 OR 53 65 +12lb 17/2 +1.5 Quick return Big drop back Weak field 56% 59% 1/6 86 E Well in +55 CAUTION PROFILE
StaywitherjohnnyRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 16.1 5-9-3-6-9-15 9-10 15 OR 54 73 +19lb 6/1 +2.5 Quick return Up in trip Weak field 59% 56% 1/6 96 D Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Famous EnoughRun style: CloserFinish: Limited sectional edge 10.5 10-2-13-6-1-11 9-9 6 OR 53 71 +18lb 9/1 +1.5 Freshened up Up in trip Weak field 57% 55% 2/6 93 E Well in +37 CAUTION PROFILE
Medieval NightRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 10.1 8-10-8-11-8-10 9-13 5 OR 57 58 +1lb 11/1 +5.5 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 56% 54% 1/6 92 E Well in +16 CAUTION PROFILE
Borora AuraRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 8.0 6-3-9-7 8-9 10 OR 50 54 +4lb 12/1 -1.5 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 59% 60% 1/6 103 D Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Desert Of The SeaRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 7.3 7-2-3-2-4-8 8-10 9 OR 40 74 +34lb 11/1 -11.5 Layoff check Big step up Weak field 55% 54% 2/6 96 E Well in +44 CAUTION PROFILE
Private LarryRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 5.1 8-13-20-10-11 8-11 16 OR 52 41 -11lb 25/1 +0.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 55% 57% 3/6 69 E Well in +17 CAUTION PROFILE
Sheamus SeimhiuRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 5.0 12-6-8-11-18-6 9-13 8 OR 57 56 -1lb 33/1 +5.5 Long absence Big step up Weak field 56% 58% 1/6 81 E Well in +19 CAUTION PROFILE
YquemRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 4.1 9-8-5-3-9-6 8-10 17 OR 40 47 +7lb 25/1 -11.5 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 52% 3/6 84 E Well in +46 CAUTION PROFILE
Sarmiento PowerRun style: ProminentFinish: Sustained speed 3.6 14-10-10-8-5-5 9-3 14 OR 47 36 -11lb 22/1 -4.5 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 59% 60% 2/6 92 D Well in +36 CAUTION PROFILE
Virgil TibbsRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 3.0 12-7-8-7-6-8 9-9 4 OR 53 64 +11lb 25/1 +1.5 Long absence Up in trip Weak field 56% 61% 0/6 91 E Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Crypto CrashRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge -1.0 9-6-14-16-10 8-12 13 OR 42 84 +42lb 22/1 -9.5 Rest developing Big drop back Weak field 56% 60% 1/6 94 E Well in +66 CAUTION PROFILE
ShakitaRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced -5.0 17-10-13-8-8 8-13 3 OR 43 103 +60lb 40/1 -8.5 Rest developing Big drop back Weak field 56% 62% 0/6 92 E Well in +60 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Rockbury Lad

Rockbury Lad profiles as a closer with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is B. Model alignment is 3/6. Balanced setup suits adaptable/prominent profile

Main Danger Nibras Rainbow

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Rockbury Lad Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 65.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR41
Speed107
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-18lb below mark
FFR 41 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
107 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.8% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score33.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR41-18lb vs OR
SpeedScore107Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+28lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 5.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.8
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.7 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
10 Leopardstown (IRE) Competitive 11-06-2026
10 Leopardstown Finished well 15-05-2026
3 Dundalk (AW) Solid effort 06-03-2026
2 Dundalk (AW) Strong run 30-01-2026
9 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 16-01-2026
5 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 19-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

22
11-06-2026 | Leopardstown (IRE) Finished 10

Beat: Hale Bopp (IRE), Oreeda (IRE), Crackles (FR) | Roderick (GB) placed next/later

15-05-2026 | Leopardstown Finished 10

Beat: Land Of The Giants (IRE), Dynamic Force (IRE), God Knows (IRE) | Faoladh (IRE) won next/later, Java Wood (IRE) won next/later | Battle Borne (IRE) placed next/later, Bucaneers Spirit (IRE) placed next/later

06-03-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Howyoulikethat (IRE), Desert Haven (GB), Alfred Tennyson (IRE) | Clonmacash (GB) won next/later, Lahore Da King (IRE) won next/later | Alfred Tennyson (IRE) placed next/later, Battle Borne (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 65% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 41%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating48
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 9 0W / 0P Peak rating 64
Good 13 2W / 4P Peak rating 76
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 18 1W / 6P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 71% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 21%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (B)5 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +28lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +28lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +28lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 59 | FFR 41 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +28
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer M D O'Callaghan
Jockey Jamie Powell
Age 7
Draw 11
OR 59
Avg OR 51.5
OR vs Field +7.5
Rating 63
TS 45
Form -92300
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 105.8% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile5
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
17-09-2024 Punchestown (IRE) Good 1 1:58.64 118.6
07-08-2025 Leopardstown (IRE) Good 8 1:55.57 115.6
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Soft 10 2:7.73 127.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 7 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: tp; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeartp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP25/1 OwnerP E Ryan & J G Shanahan
Sire Showcasing Dam Savvy Damsire Verglas
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Slowly away - in rear - headway over 1f out - went third inside final 110yds - no match for first two(op 10/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) 10 2.8 Neutral finish
15-05-2026 Leopardstown 10 1.2 Fast finish
06-03-2026 Dundalk (AW) 3 1.8 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
19-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 68 OR 62
16-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 52 OR 62
30-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 67 OR 61
06-03-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 63 OR 62
15-05-2026 | Leopardstown
Rating 48 OR 62
11-06-2026 | Leopardstown (IRE)
Rating -- OR 59
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:58.64 | 1:55.57 | 2:7.73

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 8 | 10

Approx winning time2m 01.51s
Last win at trip1:58.64 | Punchestown (IRE) | 17-09-2024

Last distance win context: vs par -2.87s | OR 60 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) | 9f | Soft | -- 10 25/1 59 -- -- 2.8 -- GREY - no timing read
15-05-2026 Leopardstown | 1m | Good | -- 10 12/1 62 48 46 1.2 1:42.94 GOLD - faster than par
06-03-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 3 8/1 62 63 45 1.8 1:26.97 GOLD - faster than par
30-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 2 25/1 61 67 42 0.8 1:38.89 GOLD - faster than par
16-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 9 11/1 62 52 44 0.3 1:26.36 GOLD - faster than par
19-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 5 22/1 62 68 30 1.2 1:40.37 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+28lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.3 and winning TS par is around 67. Runner versus par: rating edge -17.3 | TS edge -22.0. Benchmark fit: -1.7.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Nibras Rainbow Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 60.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR76
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+26lb ahead of mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score32.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR76+26lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWell handicapped+36lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.6
Variance Very steady 3.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.3
Ceiling Par capable 1.3 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Leopardstown (IRE) Solid effort 11-06-2026
1 Killarney Strong run 12-05-2026
16 Cork Competitive 24-04-2026
6 Dundalk (AW) Troubled run 30-01-2026
3 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 23-01-2026
9 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 13-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

9
11-06-2026 | Leopardstown (IRE) Finished 3

Beat: Roderick (GB), Staywitherjohnny (IRE), Rodeo Blues (IRE) | Roderick (GB) placed next/later

12-05-2026 | Killarney Finished 1

Beat: Jasmine Affanalis (IRE), Secret Magician (IRE), Toy Soldier (IRE) | Chipsrdown (IRE) placed next/later, Hale Bopp (IRE) placed next/later

24-04-2026 | Cork Finished 16

Beat: Reponse Finale (IRE), Johnnys Oasis (GB) | Land Of The Giants (IRE) won next/later | Bucaneers Spirit (IRE) placed next/later, Hale Bopp (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 41%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating49
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 18 1W / 6P Peak rating 66
Good 7 1W / 1P Peak rating 57
Fast 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 66
All-weather 16 1W / 4P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 58% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 21%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +36lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +36lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +36lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 50 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 86 | FFR edge +36
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Paul W Flynn
Jockey Leigh Roche
Age 6
Draw 7
OR 50
Avg OR 51.5
OR vs Field -1.5
Rating 25
TS 37
Form 936013
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 105.5% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile2
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
20-06-2024 Leopardstown (IRE) Good 14 1:58.47 118.5
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Soft 3 2:4.78 124.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 7 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: v
Ground timing match 1/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearv | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/1 OwnerMind Your Own Business Syndicate
Sire U S Navy Flag Dam Show Rainbow Damsire Haafhd
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Always behind(op 22/1 tchd 25/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) 3 0.1 Neutral finish
12-05-2026 Killarney 1 0 Fast finish
24-04-2026 Cork 16 0.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 5 runs with an official OR.
13-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 43 OR 55
23-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 48 OR 53
30-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 43 OR 51
24-04-2026 | Cork
Rating 25 OR 48
12-05-2026 | Killarney
Rating 49 OR 46
11-06-2026 | Leopardstown (IRE)
Rating -- OR 50
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:58.47 | 2:4.78

Last 3 trip positions: 14 | 3

Approx winning time2m 01.51s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) | 9f | Soft | -- 3 11/1 50 -- -- 0.1 -- GREY - no timing read
12-05-2026 Killarney | 1m | Good | -- 1 33/1 46 49 47 0 1:43.90 GOLD - faster than par
24-04-2026 Cork | 1m | Good To Yielding | -- 16 20/1 48 25 16 0.5 1:44.29 GOLD - faster than par
30-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 6 5/1 51 43 37 3.5 2:17.02 GREY - below benchmark
23-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 3 10/1 53 48 25 8 2:18.51 GREY - below benchmark
13-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 9 10/1 55 43 33 0.5 2:18.71 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+36lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.3 and winning TS par is around 67. Runner versus par: rating edge -36.3 | TS edge -30.0. Benchmark fit: -1.7.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Deuteronomy Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 47.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR42
Speed100
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-17lb below mark
FFR 42 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
100 Par 100
FSP%faded late
90.4% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score29.1raw
Agreement2/6
FFR42-17lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+28lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Variable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +3.4
Variance Variable 9.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.5
Ceiling Par capable 0 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
11 Fairyhouse (IRE) Competitive 05-06-2026
1 Cork Strong run 19-05-2026
8 Ballinrobe Run faded 08-05-2026
8 Limerick Run faded 25-04-2026
10 Gowran Park Competitive 09-04-2026
21 Curragh Troubled run 28-03-2026
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

4
05-06-2026 | Fairyhouse (IRE) Finished 11

Beat: Copper Craft (IRE), My Kurkum (GB), Maker's Mark (IRE)

19-05-2026 | Cork Finished 1

Beat: Miss Crinshawn (IRE), Lauderdale King (IRE), Shes Ideal (IRE) | Lady Luck (FR) placed next/later, She's Ideal (IRE) placed next/later

08-05-2026 | Ballinrobe Finished 8

Beat: Smooth (GB), Jawhary (GB), Kartayaz (IRE) | Miss Australie (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 65% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 41%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 19 2W / 3P Peak rating 63
Good 10 2W / 4P Peak rating 65
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 42
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 63%
Class fit 21%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +28lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +28lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +28lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 59 | FFR 42 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +28
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer R P Burns
Jockey Nicola Burns(5)
Age 7
Draw 2
OR 59
Avg OR 51.5
OR vs Field +7.5
Rating 52
TS 42
Form 8810
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 90.4% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 31.18s recorded | FSP 90.4%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
13-09-2023 Punchestown (IRE) Good To Yielding 4 1:58.72 118.7
29-05-2024 Tipperary (IRE) Soft 7 2:11.06 131.1
12-06-2025 Leopardstown (IRE) Soft 1 2:2.62 122.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 25% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 13 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 25%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: b; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearb | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP22/1 OwnerAnthony F McLoughlin
Sire Acclamation Dam Wild Whim Damsire Whipper
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Midfield - no impression from 2f out(op 10/1 tchd 18/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
05-06-2026 Fairyhouse (IRE) 11 1.2 Neutral finish
19-05-2026 Cork 1 0 Fast finish
08-05-2026 Ballinrobe 8 0.8 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 4 runs with an official OR.
28-03-2026 | Curragh
Rating -- OR 61
09-04-2026 | Gowran Park
Rating 43 OR 60
25-04-2026 | Limerick
Rating 52 OR 58
08-05-2026 | Ballinrobe
Rating 48 OR 55
19-05-2026 | Cork
Rating 62 OR 53
05-06-2026 | Fairyhouse (IRE)
Rating -- OR 60
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:58.72 | 2:11.06 | 2:2.62

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 7 | 1

Approx winning time2m 01.51s
Last win at trip2:2.62 | Leopardstown (IRE) | 12-06-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +1.11s | OR 47 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
05-06-2026 Fairyhouse (IRE) | 10f | Good | -- 11 22/1 60 -- -- 1.2 -- GREY - no timing read
19-05-2026 Cork | 1m2½f | Soft To Heavy | -- 1 22/1 53 62 57 0 2:21.74 GREY - below benchmark
08-05-2026 Ballinrobe | 1m1½f | Good To Yielding | -- 8 33/1 55 48 13 0.8 2:10.61 GREY - below benchmark
25-04-2026 Limerick | 1m | Yielding | -- 8 16/1 58 52 36 0.5 1:52.76 GOLD - faster than par
09-04-2026 Gowran Park | 1m1½f | Soft | -- 10 28/1 60 43 42 1 2:12.40 GREY - below benchmark
28-03-2026 Curragh | 7f | Soft To Heavy | -- 21 50/1 61 -- -- 0.2 1:40.14 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+28lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.3 and winning TS par is around 67. Runner versus par: rating edge -32.3 | TS edge -25.0. Benchmark fit: -1.7.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Queen Aethelflaed Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 32.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Real Petite Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 17.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Staywitherjohnny Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Famous Enough Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 10.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Medieval Night Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Borora Aura Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Desert Of The Sea Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 7.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Private Larry Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 5.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sheamus Seimhiu Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Yquem Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 4.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sarmiento Power Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 3.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Virgil Tibbs Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Crypto Crash Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Shakita Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:30 | Southwell (AW)

7:30 | Southwell (AW) | 8f

Class 4 | Standard | Southwell Racecourse Conferences And Events Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 72 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR--0 rated runners | No official ratings yet
Winning Time Par1m 40.92s62 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos medium
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Centigrade leads the contextual model at 25.3
  • Clearer top profile: +12.3 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 40.92s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 11 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield0
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Compare
CentigradeRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 61.7 1-2 10-7 9 OR -- 87 -- 5/4 -- Long absence Same trip Field strength developing 50% 56% 2/6 100 D Developing PRICE DEPENDENT
SheikhnshahRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 14.2 3-3 9-4 2 OR -- 84 -- 6/1 -- Freshened up Same trip Field strength developing 48% 52% 1/6 98 E Developing WATCH ONLY
SlalomRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 14.2 3 9-4 7 OR -- 88 -- 11/4 -- Standard rest Up in trip Field strength developing 48% 54% 1/6 100 E Developing WATCH ONLY
ClatfordRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 11.2 2-4 9-4 10 OR -- 80 -- 11/1 -- Layoff check Same trip Field strength developing 54% 50% 1/6 93 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Burning ImpactRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 5.0 -- 9-4 3 OR -- -- -- 6/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Golden BuddyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 4.2 7-8 9-4 5 OR -- 59 -- 33/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 48% 50% 0/6 91 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
SpecticalRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.8 4-5 9-4 13 OR -- 69 -- 9/2 -- Long absence Up in trip Field strength developing 48% 51% 0/6 91 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
HalimedeRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.8 8-9 8-13 12 OR -- 54 -- 100/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 48% 50% 0/6 91 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Keble ForeverRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.5 -- 10-0 14 OR -- -- -- 11/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
AlkaiosRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 3.2 9-5 9-4 1 OR -- 53 -- 80/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 44% 43% 3/6 59 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Star Of The DesertRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.5 -- 9-4 11 OR -- -- -- 50/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Moral VictoryRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.5 -- 10-0 4 OR -- -- -- 60/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Burrows SilverRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 0.2 10 8-13 8 OR -- 32 -- 100/1 -- Standard rest Up in trip Field strength developing 48% 52% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Cliff DangerRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style -4.8 4-6 9-4 6 OR -- 91 -- 25/1 -- Freshened up Big drop back Field strength developing 44% 46% 1/6 110 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Centigrade

Centigrade profiles as a unclear with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 2/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Sheikhnshah

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Centigrade Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 61.7
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement2/6
FFR87
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs ORperformance rating
FFR 87 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.2% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score25.3raw
Agreement2/6
FFR87pounds rating
SpeedScore100Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapEvidence developing--
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Developing; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +0.7
Variance Developing Consistency developing
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 1.7
Ceiling Par capable 4.3 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Newbury Strong run 25-10-2024
2 Sandown Solid effort 30-08-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

24
25-10-2024 | Newbury Finished 1

Beat: Furthur (IRE), Daiquiri Bay (GB), Crackergee (GB) | Crackergee (GB) won next/later, Daiquiri Bay (GB) won next/later | Majestic Leo (IRE) placed next/later, Moutai (FR) placed next/later

30-08-2024 | Sandown Finished 2

Beat: Tycoon (GB), Troy Story (GB), Qetaifan (IRE) | Jonquil (GB) won next/later, Qetaifan (IRE) won next/later | Tequila Star (IRE) placed next/later, Troy Story (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 50% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 50%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather No recent all-weather sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs0/2
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent all-weather sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 99
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 89
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 56% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 57%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 50%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalOfficial-mark evidence incomplete
Mark read Mark edge unavailable Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Evidence developing --

There is not enough official-mark evidence to make a firm handicap judgement.

Today's OR Unrated | FFR 87 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge --
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ralph Beckett
Jockey Edward Greatrex
Age 2
Draw 9
OR Unrated
Avg OR --
OR vs Field --
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 21/
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
25-10-2024 Newbury Heavy 1 1:45.69 105.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 57% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 601 days Freshness caution
Micro score -0.5 freshness caution after 601 days off; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/4F OwnerHighclere Thoroughbred Racing - Buzzard
Sire Too Darn Hot Dam Turko Beach Damsire Hard Spun
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
25-10-2024 Newbury 1 0 Neutral finish
30-08-2024 Sandown 2 0.1 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
30-08-2024 | Sandown
Rating 89 OR Unrated
25-10-2024 | Newbury
Rating 99 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:45.69

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time1m 40.92s
Last win at trip1:45.69 | Newbury | 25-10-2024

Last distance win context: vs par +4.77s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
25-10-2024 Newbury | 1m | Heavy | Class 4 1 5/4F -- 99 90 0 1:45.69 GREY - below benchmark
30-08-2024 Sandown | 7f | Good | Class 4 2 7/2 -- 89 56 0.1 1:29.89 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Evidence developing

--.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 86.9 and winning TS par is around 55.8. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sheikhnshah Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 14.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Slalom Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 14.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Clatford Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 11.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Burning Impact Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Golden Buddy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Spectical Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Halimede Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Keble Forever Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Alkaios Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Star Of The Desert Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Moral Victory Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Burrows Silver Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Cliff Danger Closer
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:40 | Lingfield

7:40 | Lingfield | 5f

Class 6 | Good | Chris Haines Tips At Lingfield Handicap

Race Confidence 87 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR50.54 rated runners | Top OR 55: Ken Brulee
Winning Time Par58.94s2 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-55
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Ken Brulee leads the contextual model at 34.8
  • Clearer top profile: +9.5 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 58.94s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 1 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield2
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Ken BruleeRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 44.0 7-1-10-5-6-5 9-9 3 OR 55 47 -8lb 7/4 +4.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 68% 68% 1/6 98 D Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Bridget's BabyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 22.2 2-7-6-10 9-4 4 OR 50 62 +12lb evn -0.5 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 58% 65% 0/6 88 D Well in +19 CAUTION PROFILE
Kodi KRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 8.9 10-5-7 9-4 1 OR 50 63 +13lb 5/1 -0.5 Freshened up Down in trip Weak field 54% 55% 0/6 85 E Well in +17 CAUTION PROFILE
Lesley BuckleyRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 6.2 7-8-10-9-11-8 9-1 2 OR 47 69 +22lb 15/2 -3.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 55% 56% 1/6 95 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Ken Brulee

Ken Brulee profiles as a front-runner with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 1/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Bridget's Baby

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Ken Brulee Front-end controller
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 44.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bridget's Baby Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 22.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Kodi K Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lesley Buckley Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 6.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:50 | Leopardstown

7:50 | Leopardstown | 13f

| Good | 1878 At 3Arena Maiden

Race Confidence 80 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR801 rated runner | Top OR 80: Eniac
Winning Time Par2m 46.72s1 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos low
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Eniac leads the contextual model at 31.6
  • Clearer top profile: +8.5 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 46.72s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 9 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield2
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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EniacRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 68.0 9-4-5-3-9 9-8 1 OR 80 42 -38lb 13/2 0 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 52% 63% 3/6 94 E Ceiling +2 CAUTION PROFILE
Changing LanesRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 53.2 2-3 9-8 10 OR -- 83 -- 6/4 -- Freshened up Big step up Solid field 55% 56% 3/6 98 E Developing WATCH ONLY
ChairmanforlifeRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 3.6 4-6 9-8 7 OR -- 74 -- 14/1 -- Freshened up Same trip Solid field 48% 55% 1/6 98 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Parish TeamRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.2 8 9-8 9 OR -- 44 -- 22/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 51% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
SakokuRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.2 9 9-3 12 OR -- 67 -- 11/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 48% 0/6 91 E Developing WATCH ONLY
KashalaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 4 9-3 6 OR -- 68 -- 10/3 -- Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 48% 51% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Quick ReturnRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-8 2 OR -- -- -- 40/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Stormy DaysRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-8 11 OR -- -- -- 28/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
PhloxRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-3 8 OR -- -- -- 18/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Echo InfernoRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 5-10 9-8 4 OR -- 80 -- 6/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 49% 0/6 97 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Essential ComedyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 -- 9-3 3 OR -- -- -- 25/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Solar JetRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -0.5 13 9-8 5 OR -- 60 -- 60/1 -- Freshened up Big step up Solid field 48% 52% 0/6 86 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Eniac

Eniac profiles as a midfield with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is E. Model alignment is 3/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Changing Lanes

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Eniac Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 68.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR42
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-38lb below mark
FFR 42 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.2% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score31.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR42-38lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.9
Variance Very steady 4.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.7
Ceiling Below requirement -4.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Down Royal (IRE) Competitive 29-05-2026
4 Leopardstown Troubled run 10-05-2026
5 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 10-04-2026
3 Leopardstown Finished well 18-10-2025
9 Naas (IRE) Run faded 18-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

10
29-05-2026 | Down Royal (IRE) Finished 9

Beat: Grey Intentions (IRE), Misty Cove (IRE), Sutton Hoo (IRE) | Lord Aus (IRE) won next/later | Rapide Vega (IRE) placed next/later

10-05-2026 | Leopardstown Finished 4

Beat: Chestnut Palace (IRE), Servare (USA), Dreoilin (IRE)

10-04-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Amrum (GB), Concaire (IRE), Scientific (IRE) | Amrum (GB) won next/later, County Carlow (IRE) won next/later | Concaire (IRE) placed next/later, Golddream (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 52% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 64%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Class Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/5
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandTesting
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 72
Good 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 78
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 66
Placement evidence 63% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 84%
Mark room 58%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 68%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +2lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 80 | FFR 42 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +2
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
Jockey Gavin Ryan
Age 3
Draw 1
OR 80
Avg OR 80
OR vs Field 0
Rating 66
TS 59
Form 93-549
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m4f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
10-05-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Good 4 2:39.67 159.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 20 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/4F OwnerFlaxman Stables Ireland Ltd
Sire Siyouni Dam Phaenomena Damsire Galileo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Midfield - some headway over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 9/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
29-05-2026 Down Royal (IRE) 9 0.3 Neutral finish
10-05-2026 Leopardstown 4 0.8 Fast finish
10-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) 5 2.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
18-09-2025 | Naas (IRE)
Rating 57 OR Unrated
18-10-2025 | Leopardstown
Rating 72 OR Unrated
10-04-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 66 OR Unrated
10-05-2026 | Leopardstown
Rating 78 OR 78
29-05-2026 | Down Royal (IRE)
Rating -- OR 80
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:39.67

Last 3 trip positions: 4

Approx winning time2m 46.72s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
29-05-2026 Down Royal (IRE) | 10.5f | Good | -- 9 11/4F 80 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
10-05-2026 Leopardstown | 1m4f | Good | -- 4 4/1 78 78 52 0.8 2:39.67 GOLD - faster than par
10-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 5 4/1 -- 66 59 2.5 1:41.67 GOLD - faster than par
18-10-2025 Leopardstown | 1m | Yielding | -- 3 16/1 -- 72 66 2.5 1:45.49 GOLD - faster than par
18-09-2025 Naas (IRE) | 7f | Yielding To Soft | -- 9 10/1 -- 57 -- 1.8 1:36.30 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 48 and winning TS par is around 45. Runner versus par: rating edge +18.0 | TS edge +14.0. Benchmark fit: 2.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Changing Lanes Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 53.2
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement3/6
FFR83
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs ORperformance rating
FFR 83 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score23.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR83pounds rating
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapEvidence developing--
Predictive edge Small caution nudge

Developing; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge -0.8
Variance Developing Consistency developing
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Below requirement -1.8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Roscommon Run faded 18-05-2026
3 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 23-04-2026
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 0 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

5
18-05-2026 | Roscommon Finished 2

Beat: Noble Honour (IRE), Karrygrant (IRE), Avec Grand Plaisir (FR) | Avec Grand Plaisir (FR) placed next/later, Noble Honour (IRE) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Druids Glen (IRE), Bell Ex Too (IRE), Mendez (USA) | Bay Of Stars (GB) placed next/later, I Hope You Dance (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 55% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 64%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 50%
Best fit Pace shape Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/2
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 85
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 56% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 84%
Mark room 50%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsOfficial-mark evidence incompleteRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read Mark edge unavailable Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Evidence developing --

There is not enough official-mark evidence to make a firm handicap judgement.

Today's OR Unrated | FFR 83 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge --
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien
Jockey J M Sheridan
Age 3
Draw 10
OR Unrated
Avg OR 80
OR vs Field --
Rating 69
TS 62
Form 32
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m4f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
23-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 3 2:36.93 156.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 31 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2 OwnerAtlantic Thoroughbreds
Sire Galiway Dam Red Line Damsire Sageburg
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent - switched left and pressed leaders over 1f out - no extra inside final 110yds(tchd 17/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
18-05-2026 Roscommon 2 0.3 Neutral finish
23-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) 3 1.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
23-04-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 69 OR Unrated
18-05-2026 | Roscommon
Rating 85 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:36.93

Last 3 trip positions: 3

Approx winning time2m 46.72s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
18-05-2026 Roscommon | 1m2½f | Good To Yielding | -- 2 9/2 -- 85 50 0.3 2:18.20 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | -- 3 8/1 -- 69 62 1.2 2:36.93 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Evidence developing

--.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 48 and winning TS par is around 45. Runner versus par: rating edge +21.0 | TS edge +17.0. Benchmark fit: 2.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Chairmanforlife Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Parish Team Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sakoku Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Kashala Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Quick Return Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Stormy Days Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Phlox Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Echo Inferno Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Essential Comedy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Solar Jet Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

8:00 | Southwell (AW)

8:00 | Southwell (AW) | 7f

Class 5 | Standard | Monday 31st August Family Fun Day Confined Handicap (No Win Since The 2025 Flat Turf Season)

Race Confidence 62 CAUTION / SPLIT RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR69.411 rated runners | Top OR 75: Silver Trumpet
Winning Time Par1m 28.25s124 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-75
Primary ActionCAUTION
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos low
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Silver Trumpet leads the contextual model at 42.8
  • Winning-time par: 1m 28.25s
Race shape Balanced context race Balanced setup suits adaptable/prominent profile. 3 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent2
Midfield4
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Silver TrumpetRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 77.2 7-3-4-5-2-7 9-9 8 OR 75 80 +5lb 10/3 +5.6 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 72% 78% 5/6 97 A Well in +16 BACKABLE PROFILE
RibenskaRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 74.3 9-2-7-7-1-2 9-6 4 OR 72 79 +7lb 6/1 +2.6 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 67% 67% 4/6 101 C Well in +13 PRICE DEPENDENT
Brunel NationRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 74.0 7-7-5-2-12-9 9-7 7 OR 73 67 -6lb -- +3.6 Layoff check Same trip Modest field 65% 66% 4/6 93 -- Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
Alfa WhiteburdRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 67.5 8-6-7-9-13-17 9-8 1 OR 74 78 +4lb 15/2 +4.6 Layoff check Same trip Modest field 58% 58% 4/6 95 E Workable +9 PRICE DEPENDENT
Star Of MaliRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 63.0 3-6-1-2-5-2 9-6 2 OR 72 82 +10lb 2/1 +2.6 Long absence Same trip Modest field 62% 66% 4/6 100 C Well in +17 CAUTION PROFILE
Blazing SonRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 54.2 8-9-6-2-7-5 9-4 5 OR 70 37 -33lb 10/1 +0.6 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 73% 74% 4/6 109 A Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
MacanudoRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 13.8 7-4-6-4-8-8 8-6 10 OR 58 71 +13lb 16/1 -11.4 Long absence Same trip Modest field 56% 62% 2/6 96 E Well in +25 WATCH ONLY
Spirit Of AlbionRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 12.2 8-6-7-11-2-2 9-4 11 OR 70 51 -19lb 7/1 +0.6 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 58% 59% 1/6 71 D Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
Reds And WolvesRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 9.0 4-5-5 9-4 9 OR 70 77 +7lb 15/2 +0.6 Long absence Same trip Modest field 53% 51% 1/6 98 E Workable +10 CAUTION PROFILE
JudicatureRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 7.2 8-2-4-9-5-7 9-1 6 OR 67 73 +6lb 8/1 -2.4 Standard rest Trip move developing Modest field 49% 44% 2/6 102 E Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
Cy TwomblyRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 0.8 9-11-6-4-5-4 8-10 3 OR 62 45 -17lb 50/1 -7.4 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 57% 52% 1/6 90 D Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Silver Trumpet

Silver Trumpet profiles as a prominent with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A. Model alignment is 5/6. Balanced setup suits adaptable/prominent profile

Main Danger Ribenska

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Silver Trumpet Prominent
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 77.2
BACKABLE PROFILE
Decision read High-conviction profile where several independent layers agree.
Status BACKABLE PROFILE
Agreement5/6
FFR80
Speed97
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR+5lb ahead of mark
FFR 80 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
97 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.3% 100% par
Best reasonClean current evidence; stake only if price is acceptable Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score42.8raw
Agreement5/6
FFR80+5lb vs OR
SpeedScore97Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+16lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Variable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +1.2
Variance Variable 9.1% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.9 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 York Troubled run 23-05-2026
3 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 27-04-2026
4 Southwell (AW) Run faded 09-04-2026
5 Newmarket Run faded 01-11-2025
2 Epsom Strong run 28-09-2025
7 Epsom Run faded 25-08-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 0 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

5
23-05-2026 | York Finished 7

Beat: Jersey Maverick (IRE), Pulsar Star (GB), Highfield Viking (GB) | Beale Street (GB) placed next/later, It Just Takes Time (IRE) placed next/later

27-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Kings Vanity (GB), Tiger Crusade (FR), Freddies Star (IRE) | El Matador (IRE) placed next/later

09-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Gunlock (USA), Shimmering Spin (USA)

Today's conditions match 72% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 70%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence All-weather Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 2P Peak rating 85
Good 7 2W / 2P Peak rating 84
Fast 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 79
All-weather 12 0W / 3P Peak rating 84
Placement evidence 78% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 72%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 50%
Proven trip profile (A)18 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +16lb roomNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +16lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +16lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 75 | FFR 80 | Best FFR 91 | FFR edge +16
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton
Jockey Edward Greatrex
Age 5
Draw 8
OR 75
Avg OR 69.4
OR vs Field +5.6
Rating 78
TS 57
Form 25-437
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 11 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.3% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile18
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
01-11-2025 Newmarket Good To Soft 5 1:27.34 87.3
27-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 3 1:24.51 84.5
23-05-2026 York Good 7 1:25.77 85.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 51% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP33/1 OwnerAustin, June & Jonny Allison
Sire Advertise Dam Cherubic Damsire Dark Angel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Soon pressed leader - no extra final 110yds(op 15/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 York 7 0.1 Fast finish
27-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) 3 2.2 Neutral finish
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 4 3 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
25-08-2025 | Epsom
Rating 22 OR 79
28-09-2025 | Epsom
Rating 85 OR 78
01-11-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 80 OR 80
09-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 74 OR 79
27-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 78 OR 78
23-05-2026 | York
Rating 74 OR 77
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip18 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:27.34 | 1:24.51 | 1:25.77

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 3 | 7

Approx winning time1m 28.25s
Last win at trip1:22.07 | Epsom | 15-08-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -6.18s | OR 70 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 York | 7f | Good | Class 4 7 33/1 77 74 66 0.1 1:25.77 GOLD - faster than par
27-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 3 6/1 78 78 57 2.2 1:24.51 GOLD - faster than par
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 4 4 5/1 79 74 38 3 1:41.49 GREY - below benchmark
01-11-2025 Newmarket | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 4 5 6/1 80 80 53 0.3 1:27.29 GOLD - faster than par
28-09-2025 Epsom | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 4 2 7/1 78 85 67 0.5 1:24.83 GOLD - faster than par
25-08-2025 Epsom | 7f | Good | Class 4 7 11/8F 79 22 5 16 1:27.82 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+16lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.8 and winning TS par is around 46.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -0.8 | TS edge +10.4. Benchmark fit: 4.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Ribenska Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.3
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR79
Speed101
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 79 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%faded late
94.2% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score37.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR79+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.3
Variance Reliable 5.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.2
Ceiling Par capable 4.2 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Kempton (AW) Run faded 06-05-2026
2 Southwell (AW) Run faded 15-04-2026
7 Newmarket Run faded 31-10-2025
7 Ascot Below best 03-10-2025
1 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 08-09-2025
2 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 21-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

17
06-05-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Notimeforchitchat (IRE), Iconic Times (GB), Receipt (GB) | Blue Prince (IRE) won next/later, Silca Bay (GB) won next/later | Im Workin On It (GB) placed next/later

15-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Beckon (GB), Bee My Honey (IRE), Vencedora (IRE) | Cool Molly (IRE) placed next/later, Homestrait (IRE) placed next/later

31-10-2025 | Newmarket Finished 7

Beat: Thats My Boy Luke (GB), Sea Suite (IRE), McKenna (IRE) | Kokanee (IRE) won next/later, Play Me (GB) won next/later | Apache Green (GB) placed next/later, Post Rider (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 67% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 70%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Track / draw
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs4/6
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 65
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 47
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 7 1W / 4P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 70%
Class fit 64%
Mark room 91%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +13lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +13lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 79 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +13
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Charlie Fellowes
Jockey Clifford Lee
Age 4
Draw 4
OR 72
Avg OR 69.4
OR vs Field +2.6
Rating 74
TS 70
Form 177-29
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 94.2% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 23.43s recorded | FSP 94.2%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile6
DEIC
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
03-10-2025 Ascot Good To Soft 7 1:32.04 92
15-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 2 1:27.28 87.3
06-05-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 9 1:26.25 86.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 37% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 43 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP13/2 OwnerNewmarket Racing Club Hqvi
Sire Ribchester Dam Preobrajenska Damsire Paco Boy
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Midfield - in touch with leaders and waiting for room 2f out - switched left and headway from over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong - no extra final 110yds(tchd 11/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 3.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
06-05-2026 Kempton (AW) 9 0.5 Run faded
15-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 2 2.2 Fast finish
31-10-2025 Newmarket 7 7.5 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
21-08-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 74 OR 78
08-09-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 78 OR 76
03-10-2025 | Ascot
Rating 65 OR 76
31-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 47 OR 75
15-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 74 OR 73
06-05-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 68 OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:32.04 | 1:27.28 | 1:26.25

Last 3 trip positions: 7 | 2 | 9

Approx winning time1m 28.25s
Last win at trip1:25.08 | Lingfield (AW) | 08-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -3.17s | OR 76 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
06-05-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 4 9 13/2 73 68 54 0.5 1:26.08 GOLD - faster than par
15-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 2 12/1 73 74 70 2.2 1:27.20 GOLD - faster than par
31-10-2025 Newmarket | 1m | Good | Class 5 7 11/1 75 47 30 7.5 1:43.09 GREY - below benchmark
03-10-2025 Ascot | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 4 7 18/1 76 65 54 3.2 1:32.19 GREY - below benchmark
08-09-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 1/16F 76 78 25 0 1:25.08 GOLD - faster than par
21-08-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 2 11/4 78 74 60 2.5 1:37.90 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.8 and winning TS par is around 46.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -4.8 | TS edge +23.4. Benchmark fit: 4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Brunel Nation Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR67
Speed93
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-6lb below mark
FFR 67 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
93 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
107.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score39.0raw
Agreement4/6
FFR67-6lb vs OR
SpeedScore93Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ----
HandicapWell handicapped+15lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Very steady 4.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.9
Ceiling Par capable 2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 Leicester Run faded 13-04-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Below best 27-03-2026
5 Kempton (AW) Run faded 25-02-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Strong run 21-01-2026
12 Chelmsford (AW) Competitive 18-12-2025
9 Wolverhampton (AW) Troubled run 24-11-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

8
13-04-2026 | Leicester Finished 7

Mission Command (IRE) won next/later, This Farh (GB) won next/later | Albeseeingyer (GB) placed next/later

27-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 7

Beat: No Return (IRE), Spirit Lead Me (IRE)

25-02-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 5

Nikovo (GB) won next/later | Popmaster (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 65% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 50%
Class 75%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs5/6
Best similar rating81
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 5 0W / 1P Peak rating 86
Good 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 88
Fast 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 87
All-weather 10 0W / 1P Peak rating 85
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 50%
Class fit 84%
Mark room 97%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 34%
Class benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +15lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +15lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +15lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 73 | FFR 67 | Best FFR 88 | FFR edge +15
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Richard Hughes
Jockey NON-RUNNER
Age 5
Draw 7
OR 73
Avg OR 69.4
OR vs Field +3.6
Rating 56
TS 70
Form 0-2577
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 5 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 107.5% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.37s recorded | FSP 107.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Timing profile developing
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance--
Runs at profile--
DEI--
ReliabilityDeveloping
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
No recent timed distance efforts are available for this runner.
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 43% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 66 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match -- Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP16/1 OwnerR Lane, L Watson & J Langridge
Sire Sioux Nation Dam Dalakania Damsire Dalakhani
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

In touch with leaders - dropped to rear 2f out - soon weakened(op 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 5.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
13-04-2026 Leicester 7 4.2 Run faded
27-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) 7 4.5 Neutral finish
25-02-2026 Kempton (AW) 5 7.5 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
24-11-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 62 OR 79
18-12-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 65 OR 78
21-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 81 OR 75
25-02-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 56 OR 76
27-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 63 OR 76
13-04-2026 | Leicester
Rating 56 OR 75
Today's conditions record

Exact distance/going history is not available yet. This section is ready for the next database layer.

Approx winning time1m 28.25s
Last win at trip1:25.95 | Newmarket | 21-09-2024

Last distance win context: vs par -2.3s | OR 80 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
13-04-2026 Leicester | 7f | Good | Class 5 7 16/1 75 56 26 4.2 1:26.40 GOLD - faster than par
27-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 7 13/2 76 63 33 4.5 1:25.21 GOLD - faster than par
25-02-2026 Kempton (AW) | 7f | Standard To Slow | Class 3 5 14/1 76 56 19 7.5 1:27.47 GOLD - faster than par
21-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 2 11/1 75 81 70 0.3 1:24.16 GOLD - faster than par
18-12-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 12 16/1 78 65 45 0.5 1:27.78 GOLD - faster than par
24-11-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 9 25/1 79 62 52 4 1:27.97 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+15lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 5

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.8 and winning TS par is around 46.6. Runner versus par: rating edge +2.2 | TS edge +23.4. Benchmark fit: 5.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Alfa Whiteburd Prominent
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 67.5
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR78
Speed95
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+4lb near mark
FFR 78 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
95 Par 100
FSP%even finish
101.1% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score29.5raw
Agreement4/6
FFR78+4lb vs OR
SpeedScore95Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWorkable mark+9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +1.6
Variance Reliable 5.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2.2
Ceiling Par capable 5.6 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Doncaster Competitive 29-03-2026
6 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 24-01-2026
7 Chelmsford (AW) Run faded 11-12-2025
9 Newcastle (AW) Competitive 18-11-2025
13 Redcar Troubled run 16-09-2025
17 York Run faded 25-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

25
29-03-2026 | Doncaster Finished 8

Beat: Quest For Fun (GB), Nakaaha (GB), Green Pursuit (IRE) | Golden Strike (IRE) won next/later, Jimmy Speaking (GB) won next/later | An Outlaws Grace (IRE) placed next/later, Green Pursuit (IRE) placed next/later

24-01-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Beale Street (GB), Orbital Chime (GB), Kitaab (GB) | Beale Street (GB) won next/later, True Promise (GB) won next/later | Dorney Lake (GB) placed next/later, Orbital Chime (GB) placed next/later

11-12-2025 | Chelmsford (AW) Finished 7

Beat: Nazron (IRE) | Alligator Alley (GB) won next/later, Almaty Star (IRE) won next/later | Diomed Spirit (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 65%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating73
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 0W / 2P Peak rating 71
Good 5 0W / 1P Peak rating 82
Fast 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 70
All-weather 12 4W / 4P Peak rating 89
Placement evidence 58% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 54%
Mark room 79%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 68%
FFR vs OR gives +9lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +9lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 74 | FFR 78 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge +9
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ivan Furtado
Jockey David Nolan
Age 5
Draw 1
OR 74
Avg OR 69.4
OR vs Field +4.6
Rating 64
TS 64
Form 097-68
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 101.1% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 23.90s recorded | FSP 101.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile2
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
28-06-2025 Doncaster Good To Firm 11 1:25.94 85.9
29-03-2026 Doncaster Good To Soft 8 1:32.09 92.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 36% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 81 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.0 wind surgery noted; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindWind surgery run 2 Latest SP28/1 OwnerAlfa Site Services Ltd
Sire Cotai Glory Dam Suaimhneach Damsire Vocalised
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this course
Race comment

Dwelt start - in rear - kept on inside final furlong - never dangerous(op 25/1 tchd 22/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
29-03-2026 Doncaster 8 1.2 Fast finish
24-01-2026 Newcastle (AW) 6 0.2 Run faded
11-12-2025 Chelmsford (AW) 7 3 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 6 runs with an official OR.
25-07-2025 | York
Rating 59 OR 75
16-09-2025 | Redcar
Rating 50 OR 73
18-11-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 68 OR 81
11-12-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 73 OR 81
24-01-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 72 OR 78
29-03-2026 | Doncaster
Rating 64 OR 69
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:25.94 | 1:32.09

Last 3 trip positions: 11 | 8

Approx winning time1m 28.25s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
29-03-2026 Doncaster | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 4 8 28/1 69 64 13 1.2 1:32.01 GREY - below benchmark
24-01-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 4 6 16/1 78 72 64 0.2 1:12.30 GOLD - faster than par
11-12-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 7 28/1 81 73 56 3 0:59.17 GOLD - faster than par
18-11-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 9 11/1 81 68 51 0.2 1:00.75 GOLD - faster than par
16-09-2025 Redcar | 6f | Good | Class 4 13 8/1 73 50 36 0.8 1:11.35 GOLD - faster than par
25-07-2025 York | 6f | Good | Class 4 17 9/1 75 59 48 0.1 1:13.42 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.8 and winning TS par is around 46.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -6.8 | TS edge +17.4. Benchmark fit: 3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Star Of Mali Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 63.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR82
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+10lb ahead of mark
FFR 82 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.7% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score46.0raw
Agreement4/6
FFR82+10lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+17lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.0
Variance Reliable 8.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.1
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Troubled run 19-01-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Competitive 21-11-2025
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 24-10-2025
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Finished well 18-10-2025
5 Southwell (AW) Run faded 23-09-2025
2 Chepstow Finished well 25-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 8 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

36
19-01-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Beauty Choice (GB), Lodge (IRE), Anthropologist (GB) | Anthropologist (GB) won next/later, Arantes Nascimento (GB) won next/later | Ash Wednesday (GB) placed next/later, Hes A Gentleman (IRE) placed next/later

21-11-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Beauty Choice (GB), Jodhpur Blue (FR), Chola Empire (GB) | Captain Parma (IRE) won next/later, City Cyclone (GB) won next/later | Chola Empire (GB) placed next/later, Hes A Gentleman (IRE) placed next/later

24-10-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Al Muqdad (GB), Split Elevens (GB), King David (IRE) | Al Muqdad (GB) won next/later, Fools Rush In (IRE) won next/later | King David (IRE) placed next/later, Thapa Vc (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 45%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs5/6
Best similar rating80
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 78
Fast 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 71
All-weather 5 1W / 3P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 38%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +17lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +17lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +17lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 82 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +17
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Latest run: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer James Tate
Jockey Jason Watson
Age 4
Draw 2
OR 72
Avg OR 69.4
OR vs Field +2.6
Rating 76
TS 40
Form 5216-3
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 105.7% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 23.41s recorded | FSP 105.7%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-10-2025 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 1:26.99 87
21-11-2025 Southwell (AW) Standard 6 1:27.65 87.7
19-01-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 3 1:28.65 88.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 150 days Freshness caution
Micro score +0.5 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/4F OwnerSheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum
Sire Sands Of Mali Dam Runaway Sparkle Damsire Green Desert
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distanceBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Dwelt start - took keen hold - midfield - going okay and headway from over 1f out - not clear run final 110yds (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run inside final furlong)(op 7/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-01-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 3 1 Fast finish
21-11-2025 Southwell (AW) 6 0.3 Neutral finish
24-10-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
25-08-2025 | Chepstow
Rating 60 OR 75
23-09-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 57 OR 74
18-10-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 75 OR 70
24-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 80 OR 70
21-11-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 69 OR 73
19-01-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 76 OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:26.99 | 1:27.65 | 1:28.65

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 6 | 3

Approx winning time1m 28.25s
Last win at trip1:26.99 | Southwell (AW) | 24-10-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -1.26s | OR 70 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-01-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 3 11/4F 73 76 40 1 1:28.65 GREEN - within 1% of par
21-11-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 6 16/5 73 69 58 0.3 1:27.46 GOLD - faster than par
24-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 5/1 70 80 70 0 1:26.99 GOLD - faster than par
18-10-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 2 9/1 70 75 61 0.5 1:27.64 GOLD - faster than par
23-09-2025 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 5 5 2/1 74 57 31 3.2 0:59.64 GOLD - faster than par
25-08-2025 Chepstow | 5f | Good | Class 5 2 1/12F 75 60 7 0.1 1:1.77 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+17lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.8 and winning TS par is around 46.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -2.8 | TS edge -6.6. Benchmark fit: -1.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Blazing Son Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 54.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR37
Speed109
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-33lb below mark
FFR 37 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
109 Par 100
FSP%even finish
101.6% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score24.2raw
Agreement4/6
FFR37-33lb vs OR
SpeedScore109Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Variable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +3.2
Variance Variable 10.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.7
Ceiling Ceiling edge 9.2 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Ripon Competitive 03-06-2026
9 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 20-04-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Run faded 21-03-2026
2 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 06-03-2026
7 Southwell (AW) Competitive 30-01-2026
5 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 29-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

24
03-06-2026 | Ripon Finished 8

Beat: Men Of Honour (IRE), Miss Willows (GB) | Glory Hyde (IRE) won next/later | Keldeo (GB) placed next/later, Miss Willows (GB) placed next/later

20-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Bobby Joe Leg (GB), Kitaab (GB), Cusack (GB) | Call Me Betty (IRE) won next/later, Criminal Shore (IRE) won next/later | Novak (GB) placed next/later, Phoenix Of Dreams (IRE) placed next/later

21-03-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Chesneys Charm (GB), Thurso (GB), Stoneywell (GB) | Sea Suite (IRE) won next/later, Thurso (GB) won next/later | Al Muqdad (GB) placed next/later, Ash Wednesday (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 73% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 70%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs5/6
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 10 0W / 2P Peak rating 79
Good 3 1W / 1P Peak rating 75
Fast 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 71
All-weather 16 4W / 10P Peak rating 86
Placement evidence 74% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 72%
Mark room 91%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 34%
Proven trip profile (A)15 similar-trip runs recordedClass benchmark supports the placementFFR vs OR gives +13lb roomRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +13lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 70 | FFR 37 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge +13
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Bryan Smart
Jockey Tom Kiely-Marshall(5)
Age 8
Draw 5
OR 70
Avg OR 69.4
OR vs Field +0.6
Rating 64
TS 59
Form -72698
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 101.6% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile15
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
06-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 2 1:27.18 87.2
21-03-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 6 1:28.99 89
20-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 9 1:26.21 86.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 23% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 15 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 23%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP16/1 OwnerThe Smart Emblaze Partnership
Sire Mayson Dam Emblaze Damsire Showcasing
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this courseDistance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Taken down early - midfield - headway and prominent 2f out - weakened from over 1f out(op 16/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
03-06-2026 Ripon 8 0.8 Neutral finish
20-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) 9 0.1 Neutral finish
21-03-2026 Southwell (AW) 6 0.1 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 5 runs with an official OR.
29-12-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 76 OR 76
30-01-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 64 OR 75
06-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 78 OR 74
21-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 74 OR 74
20-04-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 64 OR 73
03-06-2026 | Ripon
Rating -- OR 72
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip15 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:27.18 | 1:28.99 | 1:26.21

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 6 | 9

Approx winning time1m 28.25s
Last win at trip1:28.08 | Newcastle (AW) | 19-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -0.17s | OR 74 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
03-06-2026 Ripon | 6f | Good | Class 5 8 16/1 72 -- -- 0.8 -- GREY - no timing read
20-04-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 9 14/1 73 64 44 0.1 1:26.21 GOLD - faster than par
21-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 6 11/2 74 74 59 0.1 1:28.86 GREEN - within 1% of par
06-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 2 9/1 74 78 43 1.8 1:27.18 GOLD - faster than par
30-01-2026 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 7 12/1 75 64 56 1.2 1:28.52 GREEN - within 1% of par
29-12-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 5 4/1 76 76 18 0.3 1:29.56 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Well handicapped

+13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.8 and winning TS par is around 46.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -0.8 | TS edge +12.4. Benchmark fit: 4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Macanudo Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 13.8
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Spirit Of Albion Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 12.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Reds And Wolves Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Judicature Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 7.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Cy Twombly Closer
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

8:10 | Lingfield

8:10 | Lingfield | 6f

Class 4 | Good | Free Bets On attheraces.com Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 71 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR--0 rated runners | No official ratings yet
Winning Time Par1m 09.05s1 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos low
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Heddon Street leads the contextual model at 22.8
  • Clearer top profile: +15.1 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 09.05s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 6 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield0
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Heddon StreetRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 54.0 2-1 9-11 9 OR -- 64 -- 8/13 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 52% 61% 0/6 100 C Developing WATCH ONLY
MuchachoRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 10.0 4 9-2 4 OR -- 51 -- 7/2 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 48% 50% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
EveninginparisRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 8-13 1 OR -- -- -- 4/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Smooth FlightRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-2 2 OR -- -- -- 20/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Cortado GirlRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 1.2 9 8-11 5 OR -- 65 -- 40/1 -- Long absence Down in trip Field strength developing 48% 51% 0/6 93 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Rumble RubyRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 1.2 3-10 8-13 8 OR -- 60 -- 17/2 -- Standard rest Same trip Field strength developing 49% 40% 1/6 93 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
MariselleRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.0 -- 8-13 7 OR -- -- -- 14/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Field strength developing 48% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
MoravianRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style -7.5 11-7 8-13 3 OR -- 62 -- 66/1 -- Freshened up Same trip Field strength developing 44% 44% 0/6 89 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Ocean ForceRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style -12.8 5-5-7 9-9 6 OR -- 56 -- 14/1 -- Freshened up Down in trip Field strength developing 40% 44% 0/6 78 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Heddon Street

Heddon Street profiles as a unclear with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 0/6. Draw data is a slight caution. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Muchacho

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Heddon Street Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 54.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement0/6
FFR64
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs ORperformance rating
FFR 64 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
100 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.8% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score22.8raw
Agreement0/6
FFR64pounds rating
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapEvidence developing--
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Developing; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +0.8
Variance Developing Consistency developing
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2
Ceiling Par capable 0 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Leicester Solid effort 08-06-2026
1 Yarmouth Strong run 13-10-2025
Franked form Some support

Some support | 1 subsequent winner(s), 0 subsequent placer(s)

2
08-06-2026 | Leicester Finished 2

Beat: Vichenza (GB), Muchacho (IRE)

13-10-2025 | Yarmouth Finished 1

Beat: Ballybunion (IRE), Smiley Face (IRE), Debrief (GB) | Crimson Rambler (GB) won next/later

Today's conditions match 52% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 50%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/2
Best similar rating87
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 1W / 2P Peak rating 87
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 61% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 50%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalOfficial-mark evidence incomplete
Mark read Mark edge unavailable Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Evidence developing --

There is not enough official-mark evidence to make a firm handicap judgement.

Today's OR Unrated | FFR 64 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge --
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Michael Bell
Jockey Callum Rodriguez
Age 3
Draw 9
OR Unrated
Avg OR --
OR vs Field --
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 1-2
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile2
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
13-10-2025 Yarmouth Good 1 1:10.72 70.7
08-06-2026 Leicester Good 2 1:13.30 73.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 36% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 10 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/8F OwnerMichael Buckley And Partner
Sire Starman Dam Luvmedo Damsire One Cool Cat
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
08-06-2026 Leicester 2 4 Neutral finish
13-10-2025 Yarmouth 1 0 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 1 earlier run was unrated.
13-10-2025 | Yarmouth
Rating 87 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:10.72 | 1:13.30

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2

Approx winning time1m 09.05s
Last win at trip1:10.72 | Yarmouth | 13-10-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +1.67s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
08-06-2026 Leicester | 6f | Good | Class 5 2 11/8F -- -- -- 4 -- GREY - no timing read
13-10-2025 Yarmouth | 6f | Good | Class 4 1 11/2 -- 87 75 0 1:10.72 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Evidence developing

--.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 97 and winning TS par is around 91. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 0/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Muchacho Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Eveninginparis Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Smooth Flight Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Cortado Girl Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Rumble Ruby Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Mariselle Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Moravian Closer
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ocean Force Closer
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

8:20 | Leopardstown

8:20 | Leopardstown | 15f

| Good | BOYLE Sports Squad Builder (Q.R.) Maiden

Race Confidence 74 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR61.85 rated runners | Top OR 77: Joe Cool
Winning Time Par3m 23.54s266 race distance-only sample | approximate
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos medium
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Joe Cool leads the contextual model at 33.5
  • Clearer top profile: +13.7 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 3m 23.54s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 16 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent0
Midfield2
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
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Compare
Joe CoolRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 62.0 1-2-2-3 11-7 4 OR 77 95 +18lb 2/1 +15.2 Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 56% 63% 2/6 98 D Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
The Banger DoyleRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 26.2 7-13-6-6-8-2 11-7 13 OR 74 84 +10lb 10/1 +12.2 Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 61% 68% 1/6 81 C Well in +14 CAUTION PROFILE
Gaoth ChuilRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 23.5 9-3-2-6-6 11-2 18 OR 72 68 -4lb 16/1 +10.2 Freshened up Big step up Modest field 56% 60% 2/6 92 E Well in +37 CAUTION PROFILE
SalsinhaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 13.2 1-2-4-3-4-1 11-2 12 OR -- 111 -7lb 5/2 -- Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 48% 53% 1/6 112 D Stiff -7 WATCH ONLY
WonderwalkRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 10.8 13-5-6-9-4-10 11-2 2 OR 35 68 +33lb 80/1 -26.8 Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 56% 61% 2/6 82 E Well in +54 CAUTION PROFILE
Chain Of DestinyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 8.2 5-9-6-9-13 11-7 10 OR 51 43 -8lb 80/1 -10.8 Standard rest Big drop back Modest field 56% 61% 0/6 94 E Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
Eagle FangRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 6.5 6-2-2-7-5-1 11-7 5 OR -- 90 -50lb 4/1 -- Rest developing Big drop back Modest field 55% 54% 1/6 95 A Stiff -35 CAUTION PROFILE
Mart LaneRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 6.2 4-2-5-9-5 11-7 8 OR -- 99 -5lb 18/1 -- Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 45% 52% 1/6 111 E Stiff -5 WATCH ONLY
Fraher FieldRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.5 2-11-7-1-2-3 11-2 1 OR -- 103 -- 18/1 -- Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 50% 49% 1/6 76 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Beir BuaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.5 1-2-1-3-4-2 11-2 15 OR -- 96 -- 9/1 -- Rest developing Big drop back Modest field 53% 58% 0/6 99 C Developing WATCH ONLY
Golden FascinationRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 0.0 -- 11-2 17 OR -- -- -- 40/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Modest field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Lauro's LegendRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -0.5 3-10-19-5 11-7 16 OR -- 107 +2lb 40/1 -- Rest developing Big drop back Modest field 49% 51% 0/6 103 E Ceiling +2 CAUTION PROFILE
Kaleo AmetsaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -1.0 5-9-6-9-4 11-2 7 OR -- 87 -- 40/1 -- Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 48% 48% 0/6 96 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
KimyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -1.0 11-3-9-15-14-3 11-2 9 OR -- 78 -22lb 33/1 -- Rest developing Big drop back Modest field 45% 46% 0/6 98 E Stiff -3 CAUTION PROFILE
Faerie TalesRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -1.2 13-17 11-2 3 OR -- 57 -- 80/1 -- Long absence Big step up Modest field 48% 52% 0/6 80 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Donnrua DreamRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -1.5 13-4-7-6-1 11-7 6 OR -- 60 -24lb 60/1 -- Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 58% 67% 1/6 90 D Well in +23 CAUTION PROFILE
CertamenRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -2.0 14-6-5-4 11-7 11 OR -- 66 -- 60/1 -- Rest developing Down in trip Modest field 48% 49% 0/6 76 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Must Meet CecilRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style -2.5 6-7-6-8-6-11 11-7 14 OR -- 93 -6lb 40/1 -- Rest developing Big step up Modest field 43% 44% 1/6 99 E Stiff -6 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Joe Cool

Joe Cool profiles as a midfield with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 2/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger The Banger Doyle

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Joe Cool Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 62.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR95
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+18lb ahead of mark
FFR 95 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score33.5raw
Agreement2/6
FFR95+18lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+18lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +1.8
Variance Very steady 4.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Below requirement -2.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Ballinrobe Strong run 26-05-2026
2 Bellewstown Solid effort 11-04-2026
2 Curragh Finished well 15-03-2026
3 Gowran Park (IRE) Solid effort 02-04-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

19
26-05-2026 | Ballinrobe Finished 1

Beat: Marco Du Seuil (FR), Crystabel (IRE), Lady Felicia (IRE) | Jerry From Kerry (IRE) won next/later

11-04-2026 | Bellewstown Finished 2

Beat: Good Deal (IRE), Jannah Star (IRE), Battling Siki (IRE) | Lady Mairen (IRE) won next/later, Tim Toe (IRE) won next/later | Luker's Tipple (IRE) placed next/later

15-03-2026 | Curragh Finished 2

Beat: Shaftesbury Avenue (USA), Hassaniya (IRE), Kenough (FR) | Clonbun (IRE) won next/later, Darius Dark (IRE) won next/later | Templenoe (IRE) placed next/later, Victory Tip (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 40%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 0W / 3P Peak rating 80
Good 1 1W / 1P Peak rating --
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 63% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 20%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +18lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +18lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +18lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 77 | FFR 95 | Best FFR 95 | FFR edge +18
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Noel Meade
Jockey Mr Finn Tegetmeier(7)
Age 4
Draw 4
OR 77
Avg OR 61.8
OR vs Field +15.2
Rating 80
TS 55
Form 30-22
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 2m
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
26-05-2026 Ballinrobe (IRE) Good 1 4:6.30 246.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 28% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness -- Freshness data unavailable
Micro score -0.5 trainer RTF quiet at 28%; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerNoel Meade Racing Ltd
Sire Lightning Spear Dam Prewar Damsire Dubai Destination
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Led narrowly - faced challenges under 2f out - headed inside final furlong - kept on

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
26-05-2026 Ballinrobe 1 0 Neutral finish
11-04-2026 Bellewstown 2 0.8 Fast finish
15-03-2026 Curragh 2 1.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
02-04-2025 | Gowran Park (IRE)
Rating 68 OR Unrated
15-03-2026 | Curragh
Rating 72 OR Unrated
11-04-2026 | Bellewstown
Rating 80 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 4:6.30

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time3m 23.54s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
26-05-2026 Ballinrobe | 2m | Good | -- 1 100/30 -- -- 45 0 4:06.30 GREY - below benchmark
11-04-2026 Bellewstown | 1m3½f | Soft | -- 2 5/2F -- 80 -- 0.8 2:53.09 GOLD - faster than par
15-03-2026 Curragh | 1m | Heavy | -- 2 66/1 -- 72 55 1.2 1:51.46 GOLD - faster than par
02-04-2025 Gowran Park (IRE) | 1m1½f | Yielding | -- 3 20/1 -- 68 60 3.5 2:7.69 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+18lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 105.4 and winning TS par is around 60.6. Runner versus par: rating edge -25.4 | TS edge -5.6. Benchmark fit: -2.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
The Banger Doyle Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 26.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Gaoth Chuil Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 23.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Salsinha Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 13.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Wonderwalk Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 10.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Chain Of Destiny Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Eagle Fang Distance specialist
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 6.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Mart Lane Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 6.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Fraher Field Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Beir Bua Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Golden Fascination Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lauro's Legend Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Kaleo Ametsa Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Kimy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Faerie Tales Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Donnrua Dream Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Certamen Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Must Meet Cecil Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

8:30 | Southwell (AW)

8:30 | Southwell (AW) | 6f

Class 4 | Standard | Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 77 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR812 rated runners | Top OR 87: Planet Seeker
Winning Time Par1m 14.39s46 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Town Queen leads the contextual model at 47.2
  • Clearer top profile: +7.0 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 14.39s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 10 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield0
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Town QueenRun style: Front-runnerFinish: No clear style 74.0 2-2-2 9-2 4 OR 75 79 +4lb 2/1 -6 Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 69% 67% 4/6 100 D Well in +12 PRICE DEPENDENT
Planet SeekerRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 38.5 3-1 9-9 7 OR 87 91 +4lb 15/8 +6 Long absence Same trip Solid field 55% 65% 1/6 91 C Ceiling +4 CAUTION PROFILE
Mass For KathleenRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 6.2 10-3 9-2 2 OR -- 47 -- 80/1 -- Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 48% 48% 0/6 89 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Name The DayRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 5.2 4 9-2 10 OR -- 73 -- 9/2 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 48% 50% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Veil Of CloudsRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 5.2 5 9-2 6 OR -- 66 -- 11/2 -- Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 48% 51% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Star VelocityRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 5.0 -- 9-2 5 OR -- -- -- 11/2 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Material GirlRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.2 7 9-2 3 OR -- 51 -- 33/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 48% 50% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
GardeningRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 3.0 5-5 9-2 9 OR -- 51 -- 100/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 48% 50% 0/6 80 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Star TrailRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-2 1 OR -- -- -- 15/2 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
MimimeRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.5 7 9-2 11 OR -- 71 -- 25/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 48% 47% 0/6 94 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Park Lane PennyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.5 9-6 9-2 8 OR -- 49 -- 100/1 -- Standard rest Big drop back Solid field 48% 51% 0/6 93 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Town Queen

Town Queen profiles as a front-runner with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 4/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Planet Seeker

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Town Queen Front-end controller
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR79
Speed100
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+4lb near mark
FFR 79 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score47.2raw
Agreement4/6
FFR79+4lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+12lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small caution nudge

Developing; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge -0.8
Variance Developing Consistency developing
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Below requirement -0.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Chester Solid effort 30-05-2026
2 Thirsk Solid effort 02-05-2026
2 Pontefract Solid effort 21-04-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

8
30-05-2026 | Chester Finished 2

Beat: Imelda (IRE), Night Shining (IRE), Navona Grey (GB) | Lucky Luna (IRE) won next/later, Machadadorp (GB) won next/later

02-05-2026 | Thirsk Finished 2

Beat: Distant Shore (GB), Porth Eilian (GB), Perfect Ruler (GB) | Porth Eilian (GB) won next/later | Distant Shore (GB) placed next/later

21-04-2026 | Pontefract Finished 2

Beat: Reader (GB), Elemma (IRE) | Lady Youmzain (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 69% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 65%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Pace shape Question Track / draw
Ground evidence All-weather No recent all-weather sample; best evidence is on fast ground
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandFast
Read No recent all-weather sample; best evidence is on fast ground Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 0W / 2P Peak rating --
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 76
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 88%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +12lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +12lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +12lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 75 | FFR 79 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +12
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer K R Burke
Jockey Clifford Lee
Age 3
Draw 4
OR 75
Avg OR 81
OR vs Field -6
Rating 76
TS 65
Form 222
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
21-04-2026 Pontefract Good 2 1:17.73 77.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 48% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SPEvensF OwnerJaber Abdullah
Sire Blue Point Dam Madly Truly Damsire Malibu Moon
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Led - headed inside final furlong - kept on(op 6/4 tchd 11/8)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Chester 2 1.8 Neutral finish
02-05-2026 Thirsk 2 0.3 Fast finish
21-04-2026 Pontefract 2 1 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 1 earlier run was unrated.
02-05-2026 | Thirsk
Rating 76 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:17.73

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time1m 14.39s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Chester | 7f | Good | Class 4 2 EvensF -- -- -- 1.8 -- GREY - no timing read
02-05-2026 Thirsk | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 2 7/4F -- 76 65 0.3 1:26.45 GREY - below benchmark
21-04-2026 Pontefract | 6f | Good | Class 4 2 7/2 -- -- 45 1 1:17.73 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+12lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.8 and winning TS par is around 54.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -8.8 | TS edge +10.7. Benchmark fit: 3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Planet Seeker Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 38.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Mass For Kathleen Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 6.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Name The Day Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Veil Of Clouds Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Star Velocity Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Material Girl Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Gardening Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Star Trail Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Mimime Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Park Lane Penny Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

8:40 | Lingfield

8:40 | Lingfield | 6f

Class 6 | Good | Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Classified Stakes

Race Confidence 88 BET CANDIDATE
Race DNAPace-pressure sprint
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR47.511 rated runners | Top OR 50: Comedian Leader
Winning Time Par1m 09.97s5 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-50
Primary ActionBET CANDIDATE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Pace-pressure sprint | chaos medium
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Dr Ali leads the contextual model at 35.9
  • Clearer top profile: +7.8 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 09.97s
Race shape Pace-pressure sprint Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 2 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders3
Prominent0
Midfield4
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Dr AliRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 82.0 6-6-1-2-7-1 9-9 2 OR 48 51 +3lb 10/1 +0.5 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 69% 70% 5/6 99 A Well in +35 PRICE DEPENDENT
Comedian LeaderRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 59.0 5-6-9-8-7-7 9-9 11 OR 50 75 +25lb 7/2 +2.5 Layoff check Up in trip Weak field 65% 63% 2/6 94 B Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
Top BillerRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 32.9 12-2-11-6-6-9 9-9 7 OR 49 30 -19lb 5/1 +1.5 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 62% 69% 1/6 112 B Well in +34 CAUTION PROFILE
Magnificent MelRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 19.9 2-7-2-5-7-2 9-2 1 OR 49 60 +11lb 6/1 +1.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Weak field 59% 56% 1/6 95 D Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Lion RingRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 16.6 3-16-4-5-6-1 9-9 9 OR 47 58 +11lb 9/1 -0.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 59% 63% 2/6 97 C Well in +32 CAUTION PROFILE
Charging BullRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 14.2 2-6-3-8-2-7 9-9 8 OR 48 62 +14lb 10/3 +0.5 Quick return Up in trip Weak field 54% 64% 0/6 98 E Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
TassRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 11.9 7-5-11 9-2 6 OR 50 68 +18lb 6/1 +2.5 Freshened up Down in trip Weak field 54% 49% 1/6 91 E Well in +28 CAUTION PROFILE
Voodoo RayRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 9.4 11-7-9-4-5-9 9-9 4 OR 41 32 -9lb 20/1 -6.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 62% 66% 2/6 91 B Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Dios De La GuerraRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 8.8 11-11-7-10-3-5 9-9 3 OR 50 21 -29lb 33/1 +2.5 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 56% 58% 0/6 96 E Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Apple's AngelRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 4.4 9-7-6-2-9-8 9-9 5 OR 47 31 -16lb 22/1 -0.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Weak field 66% 70% 2/6 84 A Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
Little Miss MagicRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed -2.1 5-7-6-7-7-3 9-9 10 OR 44 52 +8lb 14/1 -3.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Weak field 57% 61% 1/6 99 D Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Dr Ali

Dr Ali profiles as a midfield with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A. Model alignment is 5/6. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Comedian Leader

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Dr Ali Midfield
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 82.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR51
Speed99
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+3lb near mark
FFR 51 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.3% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score35.9raw
Agreement5/6
FFR51+3lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+35lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.4
Variance Very steady 2.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.6
Ceiling Par capable 1.5 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 02-06-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Run faded 28-04-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 24-03-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 10-03-2026
7 Southwell (AW) Run faded 24-02-2026
1 Kempton (AW) Strong run 19-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

12
02-06-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Frankali (GB), My Mate Beattie (IRE), Angel's Call (IRE)

28-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Tommytwohoots (GB), Pinjarra (IRE), Queensmaite (GB) | Melissa Honey (GB) won next/later | Angel Of England (GB) placed next/later, Mount Ruapehu (IRE) placed next/later

24-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Tommytwohoots (GB), Black Cab (FR), Lynwood Lad (GB) | Black Cab (FR) won next/later, Port Hedland (GB) won next/later | Big Time Rascal (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 69% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 53%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 78
Good 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 64
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 17 2W / 7P Peak rating 62
Placement evidence 70% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 44%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A)13 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +35lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +35lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +35lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 48 | FFR 51 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge +35
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer J R Jenkins
Jockey Taylor Fisher
Age 4
Draw 2
OR 48
Avg OR 47.5
OR vs Field +0.5
Rating 42
TS 50
Form 172166
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 12 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 104.3% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 24.33s recorded | FSP 104.3%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile13
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
10-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 2 1:14.56 74.6
24-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 1 1:13.70 73.7
28-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 6 1:15.12 75.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-1.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 17% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 16 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -1.2 trainer RTF cold at 17%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP12/1 OwnerB Dowling & R Stevens
Sire Invincible Army Dam Pure Symmetry Damsire Storm Cat
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent - weakened over 1f out(op 8/1 tchd 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
02-06-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 6 0.5 Run faded
28-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 6 2.8 Run faded
24-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
19-01-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 56 OR 48
24-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 47 OR 49
10-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 55 OR 49
24-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 57 OR 50
28-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 42 OR 50
02-06-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating -- OR 49
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip13 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:14.56 | 1:13.70 | 1:15.12

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1 | 6

Approx winning time1m 09.97s
Last win at trip1:13.70 | Wolverhampton (AW) | 24-03-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +3.73s | OR 50 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
02-06-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 6 6 12/1 49 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
28-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 6 15/2 50 42 32 2.8 1:14.94 GREY - below benchmark
24-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 1 9/4 50 57 50 0 1:13.70 GREY - below benchmark
10-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 2 11/2 49 55 46 0.3 1:14.56 GREY - below benchmark
24-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 7 14/1 49 47 39 0.2 1:15.35 GREY - below benchmark
19-01-2026 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 6 1 14/1 48 56 40 0 1:13.19 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+35lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 61.8 and winning TS par is around 49.2. Runner versus par: rating edge -4.8 | TS edge +0.8. Benchmark fit: 0.6.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Comedian Leader Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 59.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: race shape is high variance.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR75
Speed94
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+25lb ahead of mark
FFR 75 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score28.1raw
Agreement2/6
FFR75+25lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+27lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +2.0
Variance Very steady 3.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5
Ceiling Below requirement -2.7 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 20-03-2026
6 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 14-02-2026
9 Lingfield (AW) Below best 07-02-2026
8 Lingfield (AW) Below best 31-01-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 24-01-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Below best 12-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

20
20-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Reporter (GB), Isla Bella (GB), Running Cool (GB) | Sonic Si (GB) won next/later | Forever Noah (GB) placed next/later, Isla Bella (GB) placed next/later

14-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Dakota Power (GB), Dalmally (GB) | Union Island (IRE) won next/later | Pitney (IRE) placed next/later, Way To Dubai (IRE) placed next/later

07-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 9

Dandy Khan (IRE) won next/later, Signcastle City (IRE) won next/later | Iconic Times (GB) placed next/later, Mr Cool (AUS) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 65% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 38%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 54
Good 6 2W / 3P Peak rating 71
Fast 4 1W / 1P Peak rating 58
All-weather 41 4W / 11P Peak rating 83
Placement evidence 63% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 17%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 50%
Proven trip profile (B)9 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +27lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +27lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +27lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 50 | FFR 75 | Best FFR 77 | FFR edge +27
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jim & Suzi Best
Jockey Joe Leavy
Age 6
Draw 11
OR 50
Avg OR 47.5
OR vs Field +2.5
Rating 52
TS 38
Form 778965
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 13 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 104.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 23.96s recorded | FSP 104.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile9
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
10-12-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 9 1:14.87 74.9
31-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 7 1:12.48 72.5
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 7 1:14.06 74.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 90 days Standard layoff
Micro score -0.5 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP50/1 OwnerMs Camilla Jade White
Sire Aclaim Dam Last Frontier Damsire Kendargent
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

In rear - headway over 1f out - nearest finish(op 28/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
20-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) 5 0.8 Fast finish
14-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) 6 1.2 Fast finish
07-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) 9 3.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
12-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 40 OR 63
24-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 50 OR 61
31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 45 OR 59
07-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 38 OR 56
14-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 51 OR 53
20-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 52 OR 51
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:14.87 | 1:12.48 | 1:14.06

Last 3 trip positions: 9 | 7 | 7

Approx winning time1m 09.97s
Last win at trip1:10.83 | Lingfield | 09-08-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +0.86s | OR 61 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
20-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 5 50/1 51 52 28 0.8 0:59.82 GOLD - faster than par
14-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 6 125/1 53 51 10 1.2 1:40.02 GREY - below benchmark
07-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 9 50/1 56 38 12 3.2 1:27.62 GREY - below benchmark
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 8 100/1 59 45 38 3.8 1:25.40 GREY - below benchmark
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 7 80/1 61 50 9 2.2 1:14.06 GREY - below benchmark
12-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 7 150/1 63 40 20 4.8 1:39.48 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+27lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 61.8 and winning TS par is around 49.2. Runner versus par: rating edge -9.8 | TS edge -11.2. Benchmark fit: -2.4.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Top Biller Front-runner
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 32.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Magnificent Mel Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 19.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lion Ring Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 16.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Charging Bull Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 14.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Tass Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 11.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Voodoo Ray Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 9.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dios De La Guerra Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Apple's Angel Distance specialist
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 4.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Little Miss Magic Late pressure closer
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

9:00 | Southwell (AW)

9:00 | Southwell (AW) | 6f

Class 4 | Standard | Golf And Gallop Southwell Golf Club Handicap

Race Confidence 49 WATCH ONLY
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR80.49 rated runners | Top OR 85: Lady Kodiac
Winning Time Par1m 14.39s46 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-85
Primary ActionWATCH ONLY
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Up The Agenda leads the contextual model at 38.8
  • Winning-time par: 1m 14.39s
Race shape Controlled tactical race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 2 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent1
Midfield2
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Up The AgendaRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 62.5 7-1-3-1-1-11 9-0 7 OR 76 82 +6lb 13/2 -4.4 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 68% 66% 4/6 101 A+ Workable +8 CAUTION PROFILE
Bone MarraRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 60.0 14-2-1-3-3-19 9-7 8 OR 83 75 -8lb 15/2 +2.6 Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 57% 59% 4/6 94 E Workable +7 CAUTION PROFILE
SanaamRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 53.8 8-9-1-7-2 9-7 2 OR 83 66 -17lb 6/1 +2.6 Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 53% 47% 3/6 94 E Ceiling +0 CAUTION PROFILE
Lady KodiacRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 52.2 6-2-5-1-1-3 9-9 6 OR 85 75 -10lb 11/2 +4.6 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 62% 67% 3/6 95 C Ceiling +0 CAUTION PROFILE
GaurdmanRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 47.9 1-3-6 9-7 3 OR 83 90 +7lb 9/4 +2.6 Long absence Down in trip Solid field 56% 62% 2/6 100 D Workable +7 PRICE DEPENDENT
Ay Up DuckRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 44.8 8-8-1-2-2 9-2 4 OR 78 82 +4lb 17/2 -2.4 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 58% 55% 3/6 107 E Workable +9 CAUTION PROFILE
EnricherRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 44.0 10-1-5-4-4 9-5 5 OR 81 82 +1lb 12/1 +0.6 Standard rest Same trip Solid field 58% 61% 2/6 107 C Workable +9 WATCH ONLY
GhisaRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 43.7 7-8-7-1-1 9-2 1 OR 78 75 -3lb 9/2 -2.4 Long absence Down in trip Solid field 64% 61% 3/6 94 C Workable +7 CAUTION PROFILE
Blue OrbitRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 36.0 10-4-2-13-6-6 9-1 9 OR 77 77 +0lb 10/1 -3.4 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 61% 67% 3/6 102 D Well in +14 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Up The Agenda

Up The Agenda profiles as a front-runner with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A+. Model alignment is 4/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Bone Marra

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Up The Agenda Front-end controller
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 62.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR82
Speed101
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+6lb ahead of mark
FFR 82 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
109.1% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score38.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR82+6lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI A+MEDIUM
HandicapWorkable mark+8lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Variable; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Improving

confidence nudge +3.5
Variance Variable 11.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.6
Ceiling Par capable 1.4 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
7 Windsor Finished well 23-05-2026
1 Kempton (AW) Strong run 19-01-2026
3 Lingfield (AW) Troubled run 31-12-2025
1 Newcastle (AW) Finished well 13-12-2025
1 Newcastle (AW) Finished well 02-12-2025
11 Nottingham Competitive 23-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 8 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

21
23-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 7

Beat: Generous Rascal (GB), Ecclefechan (GB), Firewalker (GB) | Alkuwarrior (IRE) won next/later, Grey Horizon (GB) won next/later | Generous Rascal (GB) placed next/later

19-01-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Unionville (GB), Space Bear (IRE), Mighty Vega (IRE) | Mighty Vega (IRE) won next/later, Space Bear (IRE) won next/later | Saxon Prince (GB) placed next/later

31-12-2025 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Alasrae (GB), Mighty Vega (IRE), Fermain (GB) | Akabusi (GB) won next/later, Alasrae (GB) won next/later | Fermain (GB) placed next/later, Guernsey Lady (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 68% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 96%
Class 30%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs4/6
Best similar rating76
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 65
Good 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 62
Fast 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 64
All-weather 4 3W / 4P Peak rating 76
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 8%
Mark room 76%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A+)7 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +8lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +8lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +8lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 76 | FFR 82 | Best FFR 84 | FFR edge +8
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jack Morland
Jockey Tom Eaves
Age 3
Draw 7
OR 76
Avg OR 80.4
OR vs Field -4.4
Rating 76
TS 32
Form 113-17
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 7 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 109.1% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.89s recorded | FSP 109.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile7
DEIA+
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
31-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 3 1:11.46 71.5
19-01-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 1 1:14.51 74.5
23-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 7 1:11.30 71.3
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 33% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP14/1 OwnerUp The Racing Team
Sire Sands Of Mali Dam Silent Agenda Damsire Kyllachy
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent - lost position over 3f out - ridden when up the centre over 1f out - headway inside final furlong - led final strides(op 5/4 tchd 11/8)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
3/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 Windsor 7 0.1 Fast finish
19-01-2026 Kempton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
31-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) 3 1.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
23-10-2025 | Nottingham
Rating 14 OR 68
02-12-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 71 OR 68
13-12-2025 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 73 OR 70
31-12-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 75 OR 74
19-01-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 76 OR 74
23-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 63 OR 76
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip7 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:11.46 | 1:14.51 | 1:11.30

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 1 | 7

Approx winning time1m 14.39s
Last win at trip1:14.51 | Kempton (AW) | 19-01-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +0.12s | OR 74 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 Windsor | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 4 7 14/1 76 63 55 0.1 1:11.30 GOLD - faster than par
19-01-2026 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 5 1 6/5F 74 76 32 0 1:14.51 GREEN - within 1% of par
31-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 3 6/1 74 75 69 1.2 1:11.46 GOLD - faster than par
13-12-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 1 6/5F 70 73 43 0 1:15.68 AMBER - competitive
02-12-2025 Newcastle (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 1 EvensF 68 71 43 0 1:14.38 GOLD - faster than par
23-10-2025 Nottingham | 6f | Heavy | Class 5 11 4/1F 68 14 4 2.2 1:24.21 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Workable mark

+8lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.8 and winning TS par is around 54.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -8.8 | TS edge -22.3. Benchmark fit: -4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Bone Marra Midfield
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 60.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR75
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-8lb below mark
FFR 75 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.9% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score45.2raw
Agreement4/6
FFR75-8lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWorkable mark+7lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.1
Variance Reliable 7.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.2
Ceiling Below requirement -0.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
14 Goodwood Competitive 23-05-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Troubled run 28-04-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 08-11-2025
3 Leicester Run faded 10-08-2025
3 Salisbury Solid effort 23-07-2025
19 Ascot Steady run 17-06-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

14
23-05-2026 | Goodwood Finished 14

Beat: Cool Molly (IRE), Aqua Bear (IRE), Goodwood Galaxy (GB) | Ironwill (IRE) placed next/later, Strength Of Spirit (IRE) placed next/later

28-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Alasrae (GB), Merlier (IRE), Comprador (GB) | Akabusi (GB) won next/later, Manly Fireball (IRE) won next/later | Alasrae (GB) placed next/later, Comprador (GB) placed next/later

08-11-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Jackabi (FR), Chale Chalo (IRE), Exotic Baby (GB) | Chale Chalo (IRE) won next/later | Balthamos (GB) placed next/later, Jackabi (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 57% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 70%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating80
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 65
Fast 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 61
All-weather 3 2W / 3P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 74%
Mark room 73%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +7lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +7lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 83 | FFR 75 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +7
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ollie Sangster
Jockey Stevie Donohoe
Age 3
Draw 8
OR 83
Avg OR 80.4
OR vs Field +2.6
Rating No rating yet
TS 64
Form 331-20
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 105.9% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 23.33s recorded | FSP 105.9%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile3
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
17-06-2025 Ascot Good To Firm 19 1:16.93 76.9
23-07-2025 Salisbury Good To Firm 3 1:16.38 76.4
28-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 2 1:12.47 72.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 26% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 26 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 26%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: t
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeart | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP28/1 OwnerPompey Ventures 3
Sire Starman Dam Pyrenean Queen Damsire Zoffany
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Midfield - dropped to rear over 2f out - headway on inner over 1f out - not clear run inside final furlong - kept on and went second towards finish (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run approaching 1f out)(op 12/1 tchd 10/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
23-05-2026 Goodwood 14 1.2 Neutral finish
28-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) 2 1.5 Fast finish
08-11-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 4 runs with an official OR. 1 earlier run was unrated.
17-06-2025 | Ascot
Rating 39 OR Unrated
23-07-2025 | Salisbury
Rating 61 OR 81
10-08-2025 | Leicester
Rating 48 OR 80
08-11-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 80 OR 78
28-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating -- OR 83
23-05-2026 | Goodwood
Rating 65 OR 84
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:16.93 | 1:16.38 | 1:12.47

Last 3 trip positions: 19 | 3 | 2

Approx winning time1m 14.39s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
23-05-2026 Goodwood | 7f | Good | Class 2 14 28/1 84 65 46 1.2 1:27.38 GREY - below benchmark
28-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 4 2 11/1 83 -- 64 1.5 1:12.47 GOLD - faster than par
08-11-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 1 10/1 78 80 47 0 1:28.47 GREY - below benchmark
10-08-2025 Leicester | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 9/2 80 48 56 8 1:24.48 GREY - below benchmark
23-07-2025 Salisbury | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 9/2 81 61 27 4 1:16.56 GREY - below benchmark
17-06-2025 Ascot | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 1 19 50/1 -- 39 29 9.5 1:17.63 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Workable mark

+7lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.8 and winning TS par is around 54.3. Runner versus par: TS edge +9.7. Benchmark fit: 4.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sanaam Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 53.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR66
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementCaution
FFR vs OR-17lb below mark
FFR 66 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
108.6% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score39.8raw
Agreement3/6
FFR66-17lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapNear ceiling+0lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +2.8
Variance Very steady 3.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 8.6
Ceiling Below requirement -3.5 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Doncaster Competitive 05-06-2026
9 Wetherby Run faded 26-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Finished well 12-12-2025
7 Newmarket (July) Run faded 23-08-2025
2 Pontefract Solid effort 06-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

6
05-06-2026 | Doncaster Finished 8

Beat: Rogue Messiah (IRE), Night Patrol (IRE)

26-04-2026 | Wetherby Finished 9

Beat: Shahik (GB), Dacres Cross (IRE) | Back To Me (IRE) placed next/later

12-12-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Space Invasion (IRE), Media Legend (IRE), Alpine Culture (GB) | Space Invasion (IRE) won next/later | Alpine Culture (GB) placed next/later, Wild Act (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 53% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 55%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Pace shape Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence All-weather Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs1/5
Best similar rating85
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 68
All-weather 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 85
Placement evidence 47% Intent unclear
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 38%
Mark room 52%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +0lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +0lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 83 | FFR 66 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge 0
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Simon & Ed Crisford
Jockey Harry Davies
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 83
Avg OR 80.4
OR vs Field +2.6
Rating 68
TS 65
Form 271-98
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 108.6% Strong finish
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 24.90s recorded | FSP 108.6%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile2
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
06-08-2025 Pontefract Good To Firm 2 1:18.10 78.1
23-08-2025 Newmarket (July) Good To Firm 7 1:13.92 73.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 43% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 13 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP20/1 OwnerAbdullah Menahi
Sire Blue Point Dam Hollywood Lady Damsire Sea The Stars
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this course
Race comment

Towards rear - weakened inside final furlong(tchd 3/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
05-06-2026 Doncaster 8 0.3 Neutral finish
26-04-2026 Wetherby 9 2.8 Run faded
12-12-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
06-08-2025 | Pontefract
Rating 67 OR Unrated
23-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 61 OR Unrated
12-12-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 85 OR Unrated
26-04-2026 | Wetherby
Rating 68 OR 87
05-06-2026 | Doncaster
Rating -- OR 86
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:18.10 | 1:13.92

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 7

Approx winning time1m 14.39s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
05-06-2026 Doncaster | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 8 20/1 86 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
26-04-2026 Wetherby | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 9 4/1 87 68 65 2.8 1:26.78 GREY - below benchmark
12-12-2025 Southwell (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 1 2/1 -- 85 53 0 1:29.00 GREY - below benchmark
23-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 4 7 4/1 -- 61 49 0.1 1:14.14 GOLD - faster than par
06-08-2025 Pontefract | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 4 2 100/30 -- 67 44 0.5 1:18.12 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Near ceiling

+0lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.8 and winning TS par is around 54.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -16.8 | TS edge +10.7. Benchmark fit: 1.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Lady Kodiac Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 52.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR75
Speed95
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR-10lb below mark
FFR 75 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
95 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.2% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score38.3raw
Agreement3/6
FFR75-10lb vs OR
SpeedScore95Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapNear ceiling+0lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.2
Variance Very steady 3.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 1.8
Ceiling Par capable 0.6 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Carlisle Steady run 30-05-2026
2 Newmarket Solid effort 01-05-2026
5 Wolverhampton (AW) Below best 10-04-2026
1 Chelmsford (AW) Finished well 02-10-2025
1 Chelmsford (AW) Strong run 11-09-2025
3 Ripon Run faded 26-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

7
30-05-2026 | Carlisle Finished 6

Beat: Fouette (IRE), Ziggy's Queen (IRE), Orchid (IRE) | Distant Shore (GB) placed next/later

01-05-2026 | Newmarket Finished 2

Beat: Powdering (IRE), Paradise Walk (IRE), Anaisa (GB) | Paradise Walk (IRE) won next/later | Fantasy Obsessor (GB) placed next/later

10-04-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Anthelia (IRE), Chairmanfourtimes (IRE) | Ten Carat Harry (GB) won next/later | Comical Point (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 70%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Class Question Track / draw
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating81
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 80
All-weather 3 2W / 2P Peak rating 81
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 64%
Mark room 52%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +0lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +0lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 85 | FFR 75 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge 0
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer James Tate
Jockey Jason Watson
Age 3
Draw 6
OR 85
Avg OR 80.4
OR vs Field +4.6
Rating 80
TS 68
Form 11-526
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
02-10-2025 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 1 1:11.84 71.8
10-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 5 1:14.37 74.4
01-05-2026 Newmarket Good To Firm 2 1:12.51 72.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 19 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/1 OwnerJaber Abdullah
Sire Kodiac Dam Shy Angel Damsire Zamindar
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Pressed winner - ridden over 1f out - kept on but no chance with winner final 110yds(op 14/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 4.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
30-05-2026 Carlisle 6 3.5 Neutral finish
01-05-2026 Newmarket 2 6.5 Fast finish
10-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 5 3.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
26-08-2025 | Ripon
Rating 62 OR Unrated
11-09-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 76 OR Unrated
02-10-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 81 OR Unrated
10-04-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 76 OR 90
01-05-2026 | Newmarket
Rating 80 OR 88
30-05-2026 | Carlisle
Rating -- OR 87
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:11.84 | 1:14.37 | 1:12.51

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 5 | 2

Approx winning time1m 14.39s
Last win at trip1:11.84 | Chelmsford (AW) | 02-10-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -2.55s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
30-05-2026 Carlisle | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 3 6 9/1 87 -- -- 3.5 -- GREY - no timing read
01-05-2026 Newmarket | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 3 2 28/1 88 80 68 6.5 1:12.51 GOLD - faster than par
10-04-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 2 5 12/1 90 76 29 3.2 1:14.37 GOLD - faster than par
02-10-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 1 8/13F -- 81 60 0 1:11.84 GOLD - faster than par
11-09-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 1 7/2 -- 76 55 0 1:11.99 GOLD - faster than par
26-08-2025 Ripon | 5f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 9/1 -- 62 51 2.5 0:58.86 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+0lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.8 and winning TS par is around 54.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -4.8 | TS edge +13.7. Benchmark fit: 4.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Gaurdman Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 47.9
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement2/6
FFR90
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+7lb ahead of mark
FFR 90 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score43.0raw
Agreement2/6
FFR90+7lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+7lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.9
Variance Very steady 3.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.4
Ceiling Par capable 0.1 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Haydock Strong run 26-09-2025
3 Windsor Run faded 23-08-2025
6 Newmarket (July) Competitive 08-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 8 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

34
26-09-2025 | Haydock Finished 1

Beat: Chain Link (GB), Aerial Silk (GB), Ziata (GB) | Bradbury (IRE) won next/later, Snaafy (GB) won next/later | Master Of Entropy (GB) placed next/later, Poker (IRE) placed next/later

23-08-2025 | Windsor Finished 3

Beat: Star Of Albion (GB), Foothold (IRE), Black Star Boy (IRE) | Black Star Boy (IRE) won next/later, Cape Toronada (FR) won next/later | Decem Starr (IRE) placed next/later, Poatan (IRE) placed next/later

08-08-2025 | Newmarket (July) Finished 6

Beat: Wise Crack (IRE), Harbor Lock (GB) | Crown Office (GB) won next/later, Elan dOr (GB) won next/later | First Time (IRE) placed next/later, Wise Crack (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather No recent all-weather sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs0/3
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent all-weather sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 78
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 73
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 73%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +7lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +7lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 83 | FFR 90 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +7
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Roger Varian
Jockey Sean D Bowen
Age 2
Draw 3
OR 83
Avg OR 80.4
OR vs Field +2.6
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 631-
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 3 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 106.0% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile2
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
08-08-2025 Newmarket (July) Good To Firm 6 1:13.14 73.1
23-08-2025 Windsor Good To Firm 3 1:12.72 72.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 71% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 265 days Freshness caution
Micro score +0.5 trainer RTF hot at 71%; freshness caution after 265 days off; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/2 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerVictorious Forever
Sire Blue Point Dam Glowing Star Damsire Clodovil
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
HC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
26-09-2025 Haydock 1 0 Fast finish
23-08-2025 Windsor 3 0.2 Neutral finish
08-08-2025 Newmarket (July) 6 1 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
08-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 70 OR Unrated
23-08-2025 | Windsor
Rating 73 OR Unrated
26-09-2025 | Haydock
Rating 78 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip2 Trip experience building ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:13.14 | 1:12.72

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 3

Approx winning time1m 14.39s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
26-09-2025 Haydock | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 4 1 100/30 -- 78 65 0 1:31.48 GREY - below benchmark
23-08-2025 Windsor | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 5 3 2/1F -- 73 42 0.2 1:12.83 GOLD - faster than par
08-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 4 6 9/4F -- 70 44 1 1:13.23 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+7lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.8 and winning TS par is around 54.3. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Ay Up Duck Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 44.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Enricher Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 44.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ghisa Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 43.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Blue Orbit Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 36.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.