ForeFurlongs Intelligence

Bet Races

The ForeFurlongs trading-desk view: only the races where the environment looks supportive, the field is not too compressed, the pace map helps the main profile and the contextual edge is clear.

8:40 | Lingfield

8:40 | Lingfield | 6f

Class 6 | Good | Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Classified Stakes

Race Confidence 88 BET CANDIDATE
Race DNAPace-pressure sprint
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR47.511 rated runners | Top OR 50: Comedian Leader
Winning Time Par1m 09.97s5 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-50
Primary ActionBET CANDIDATE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Pace-pressure sprint | chaos medium
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Dr Ali leads the contextual model at 35.9
  • Clearer top profile: +7.8 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 09.97s
Race shape Pace-pressure sprint Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 2 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders3
Prominent0
Midfield4
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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Dr AliRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 82.0 6-6-1-2-7-1 9-9 2 OR 48 51 +3lb 10/1 +0.5 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 69% 70% 5/6 99 A Well in +35 PRICE DEPENDENT
Comedian LeaderRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 59.0 5-6-9-8-7-7 9-9 11 OR 50 75 +25lb 7/2 +2.5 Layoff check Up in trip Weak field 65% 63% 2/6 94 B Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
Top BillerRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 32.9 12-2-11-6-6-9 9-9 7 OR 49 30 -19lb 5/1 +1.5 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 62% 69% 1/6 112 B Well in +34 CAUTION PROFILE
Magnificent MelRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 19.9 2-7-2-5-7-2 9-2 1 OR 49 60 +11lb 6/1 +1.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Weak field 59% 56% 1/6 95 D Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Lion RingRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 16.6 3-16-4-5-6-1 9-9 9 OR 47 58 +11lb 9/1 -0.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 59% 63% 2/6 97 C Well in +32 CAUTION PROFILE
Charging BullRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 14.2 2-6-3-8-2-7 9-9 8 OR 48 62 +14lb 10/3 +0.5 Quick return Up in trip Weak field 54% 64% 0/6 98 E Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
TassRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 11.9 7-5-11 9-2 6 OR 50 68 +18lb 6/1 +2.5 Freshened up Down in trip Weak field 54% 49% 1/6 91 E Well in +28 CAUTION PROFILE
Voodoo RayRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 9.4 11-7-9-4-5-9 9-9 4 OR 41 32 -9lb 20/1 -6.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 62% 66% 2/6 91 B Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Dios De La GuerraRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 8.8 11-11-7-10-3-5 9-9 3 OR 50 21 -29lb 33/1 +2.5 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 56% 58% 0/6 96 E Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Apple's AngelRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 4.4 9-7-6-2-9-8 9-9 5 OR 47 31 -16lb 22/1 -0.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Weak field 66% 70% 2/6 84 A Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
Little Miss MagicRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed -2.1 5-7-6-7-7-3 9-9 10 OR 44 52 +8lb 14/1 -3.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Weak field 57% 61% 1/6 99 D Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Dr Ali

Dr Ali profiles as a midfield with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A. Model alignment is 5/6. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Comedian Leader

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Dr Ali Midfield
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 82.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR51
Speed99
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+3lb near mark
FFR 51 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.3% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score35.9raw
Agreement5/6
FFR51+3lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+35lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.4
Variance Very steady 2.4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.6
Ceiling Par capable 1.5 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 02-06-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Run faded 28-04-2026
1 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 24-03-2026
2 Wolverhampton (AW) Strong run 10-03-2026
7 Southwell (AW) Run faded 24-02-2026
1 Kempton (AW) Strong run 19-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

12
02-06-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Frankali (GB), My Mate Beattie (IRE), Angel's Call (IRE)

28-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Tommytwohoots (GB), Pinjarra (IRE), Queensmaite (GB) | Melissa Honey (GB) won next/later | Angel Of England (GB) placed next/later, Mount Ruapehu (IRE) placed next/later

24-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Tommytwohoots (GB), Black Cab (FR), Lynwood Lad (GB) | Black Cab (FR) won next/later, Port Hedland (GB) won next/later | Big Time Rascal (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 69% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 53%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 78
Good 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 64
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 17 2W / 7P Peak rating 62
Placement evidence 70% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 44%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A)13 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +35lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +35lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +35lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 48 | FFR 51 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge +35
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer J R Jenkins
Jockey Taylor Fisher
Age 4
Draw 2
OR 48
Avg OR 47.5
OR vs Field +0.5
Rating 42
TS 50
Form 172166
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 12 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% last 3 104.3% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 24.33s recorded | FSP 104.3%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile13
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
10-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 2 1:14.56 74.6
24-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 1 1:13.70 73.7
28-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 6 1:15.12 75.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-1.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 17% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 16 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -1.2 trainer RTF cold at 17%; no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP12/1 OwnerB Dowling & R Stevens
Sire Invincible Army Dam Pure Symmetry Damsire Storm Cat
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent - weakened over 1f out(op 8/1 tchd 9/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
02-06-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 6 0.5 Run faded
28-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 6 2.8 Run faded
24-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
19-01-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 56 OR 48
24-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 47 OR 49
10-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 55 OR 49
24-03-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 57 OR 50
28-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 42 OR 50
02-06-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating -- OR 49
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip13 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:14.56 | 1:13.70 | 1:15.12

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 1 | 6

Approx winning time1m 09.97s
Last win at trip1:13.70 | Wolverhampton (AW) | 24-03-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +3.73s | OR 50 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
02-06-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 6 6 12/1 49 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
28-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 6 15/2 50 42 32 2.8 1:14.94 GREY - below benchmark
24-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 1 9/4 50 57 50 0 1:13.70 GREY - below benchmark
10-03-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 2 11/2 49 55 46 0.3 1:14.56 GREY - below benchmark
24-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 7 14/1 49 47 39 0.2 1:15.35 GREY - below benchmark
19-01-2026 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 6 1 14/1 48 56 40 0 1:13.19 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+35lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 61.8 and winning TS par is around 49.2. Runner versus par: rating edge -4.8 | TS edge +0.8. Benchmark fit: 0.6.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Comedian Leader Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 59.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: race shape is high variance.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR75
Speed94
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+25lb ahead of mark
FFR 75 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
104.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score28.1raw
Agreement2/6
FFR75+25lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI BMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+27lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +2.0
Variance Very steady 3.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5
Ceiling Below requirement -2.7 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
5 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 20-03-2026
6 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 14-02-2026
9 Lingfield (AW) Below best 07-02-2026
8 Lingfield (AW) Below best 31-01-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 24-01-2026
7 Lingfield (AW) Below best 12-01-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 5 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

20
20-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Reporter (GB), Isla Bella (GB), Running Cool (GB) | Sonic Si (GB) won next/later | Forever Noah (GB) placed next/later, Isla Bella (GB) placed next/later

14-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 6

Beat: Dakota Power (GB), Dalmally (GB) | Union Island (IRE) won next/later | Pitney (IRE) placed next/later, Way To Dubai (IRE) placed next/later

07-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 9

Dandy Khan (IRE) won next/later, Signcastle City (IRE) won next/later | Iconic Times (GB) placed next/later, Mr Cool (AUS) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 65% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 38%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 42%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 54
Good 6 2W / 3P Peak rating 71
Fast 4 1W / 1P Peak rating 58
All-weather 41 4W / 11P Peak rating 83
Placement evidence 63% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 86%
Class fit 17%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 62%
Recent evidence 50%
Proven trip profile (B)9 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +27lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +27lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +27lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 50 | FFR 75 | Best FFR 77 | FFR edge +27
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jim & Suzi Best
Jockey Joe Leavy
Age 6
Draw 11
OR 50
Avg OR 47.5
OR vs Field +2.5
Rating 52
TS 38
Form 778965
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 13 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 104.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 23.96s recorded | FSP 104.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance6f
Runs at profile9
DEIB
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
10-12-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 9 1:14.87 74.9
31-12-2025 Lingfield (AW) Standard 7 1:12.48 72.5
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 7 1:14.06 74.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 90 days Standard layoff
Micro score -0.5 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP50/1 OwnerMs Camilla Jade White
Sire Aclaim Dam Last Frontier Damsire Kendargent
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

In rear - headway over 1f out - nearest finish(op 28/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
20-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) 5 0.8 Fast finish
14-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) 6 1.2 Fast finish
07-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) 9 3.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
12-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 40 OR 63
24-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 50 OR 61
31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 45 OR 59
07-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 38 OR 56
14-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 51 OR 53
20-03-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 52 OR 51
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip9 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:14.87 | 1:12.48 | 1:14.06

Last 3 trip positions: 9 | 7 | 7

Approx winning time1m 09.97s
Last win at trip1:10.83 | Lingfield | 09-08-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +0.86s | OR 61 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
20-03-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 5 50/1 51 52 28 0.8 0:59.82 GOLD - faster than par
14-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 6 125/1 53 51 10 1.2 1:40.02 GREY - below benchmark
07-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 9 50/1 56 38 12 3.2 1:27.62 GREY - below benchmark
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 5 8 100/1 59 45 38 3.8 1:25.40 GREY - below benchmark
24-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 6 7 80/1 61 50 9 2.2 1:14.06 GREY - below benchmark
12-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m | Standard | Class 5 7 150/1 63 40 20 4.8 1:39.48 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+27lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 61.8 and winning TS par is around 49.2. Runner versus par: rating edge -9.8 | TS edge -11.2. Benchmark fit: -2.4.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Top Biller Front-runner
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 32.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Magnificent Mel Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 19.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lion Ring Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 16.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Charging Bull Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 14.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Tass Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 11.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Voodoo Ray Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 9.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dios De La Guerra Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Apple's Angel Distance specialist
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 4.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Little Miss Magic Late pressure closer
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:40 | Lingfield

7:40 | Lingfield | 5f

Class 6 | Good | Chris Haines Tips At Lingfield Handicap

Race Confidence 87 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR50.54 rated runners | Top OR 55: Ken Brulee
Winning Time Par58.94s2 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-55
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Ken Brulee leads the contextual model at 34.8
  • Clearer top profile: +9.5 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 58.94s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 1 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield2
Hold-up0
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Ken BruleeRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 44.0 7-1-10-5-6-5 9-9 3 OR 55 47 -8lb 7/4 +4.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 68% 68% 1/6 98 D Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Bridget's BabyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 22.2 2-7-6-10 9-4 4 OR 50 62 +12lb evn -0.5 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 58% 65% 0/6 88 D Well in +19 CAUTION PROFILE
Kodi KRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 8.9 10-5-7 9-4 1 OR 50 63 +13lb 5/1 -0.5 Freshened up Down in trip Weak field 54% 55% 0/6 85 E Well in +17 CAUTION PROFILE
Lesley BuckleyRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 6.2 7-8-10-9-11-8 9-1 2 OR 47 69 +22lb 15/2 -3.5 Standard rest Down in trip Weak field 55% 56% 1/6 95 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Ken Brulee

Ken Brulee profiles as a front-runner with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 1/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Bridget's Baby

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Ken Brulee Front-end controller
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 44.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bridget's Baby Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 22.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Kodi K Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lesley Buckley Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 6.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

4:00 | Ripon

4:00 | Ripon | 8f

Class 3 | Good | Masons Gin 'Who Dares, Gins' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 87 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR761 rated runner | Top OR 76: Eklleem
Winning Time Par1m 40.06s39 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to soft in places (GoingStick: 7.3)Stalls Straight - Stands' side; Round - Inside; 1m4f - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Eklleem leads the contextual model at 31.9
  • Clearer top profile: +19.7 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 40.06s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 4 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent1
Midfield1
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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EklleemRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 51.0 4-2-6 9-3 3 OR 76 79 +3lb 11/10 0 Freshened up Up in trip Solid field 60% 53% 2/6 92 D Workable +9 CAUTION PROFILE
ErvaniRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 14.2 4-2 9-3 5 OR -- 82 -- evn -- Freshened up Same trip Solid field 47% 50% 3/6 82 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Stolen KissesRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.2 5 9-8 1 OR -- 48 -- 40/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 48% 50% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Jetpack JimmyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-3 4 OR -- -- -- 25/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Ziggy BayRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.5 9-6 8-12 2 OR -- 36 -- 100/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 51% 0/6 90 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Carnival Of LightRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 1.0 -- 9-8 6 OR -- -- -- 9/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 47% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Ceinture d'OrionRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 0.2 6-4 8-12 7 OR -- 67 -- 17/2 -- Standard rest Big drop back Solid field 45% 45% 2/6 84 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Eklleem

Eklleem profiles as a front-runner with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 2/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Ervani

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Eklleem Front-end controller
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 51.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR79
Speed92
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+3lb near mark
FFR 79 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
92 Par 100
FSP%faded late
97.3% 100% par
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score31.9raw
Agreement2/6
FFR79+3lb vs OR
SpeedScore92Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +2.2
Variance Very steady 4.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6
Ceiling Par capable 2 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 01-05-2026
2 Newmarket Solid effort 22-10-2025
6 Leicester Run faded 22-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

24
01-05-2026 | Newcastle (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Marhayb (GB), Eljowhary (GB), Thunder Rush (GB) | Grasmere Boy (GB) won next/later | Marhayb (GB) placed next/later, Record Day (GB) placed next/later

22-10-2025 | Newmarket Finished 2

Beat: Seeway (FR), Savvy Disko (IRE), Battosai (IRE) | Rockafeller Skank (IRE) won next/later, Savvy Disko (IRE) won next/later | Battosai (IRE) placed next/later, Major Neigh Sayer (IRE) placed next/later

22-09-2025 | Leicester Finished 6

Beat: Salkadan (GB), Hard Evidence (FR), Black Tango (IRE) | Go Rimbaud (GB) won next/later, Hard Evidence (FR) won next/later | Big Shot Veto (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 60% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 32%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Pace shape Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/3
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 78
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 53% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 16%
Mark room 79%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +9lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +9lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 76 | FFR 79 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +9
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer William Haggas
Jockey Jason Hart
Age 3
Draw 3
OR 76
Avg OR 76
OR vs Field 0
Rating 69
TS 34
Form 62-4
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 7f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile3
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
22-09-2025 Leicester Good To Soft 6 1:27.12 87.1
22-10-2025 Newmarket Good 2 1:25.84 85.8
01-05-2026 Newcastle (AW) Standard 4 1:30.15 90.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+1.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 68% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 48 days Standard layoff
Micro score +1.0 trainer RTF positive at 68%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP10/11F OwnerSheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum
Sire No Nay Never Dam Stone Roses Damsire Rip Van Winkle
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Prominent - briefly led over 1f out - weakened gradually inside final furlong(op 4/5)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
01-05-2026 Newcastle (AW) 4 1 Run faded
22-10-2025 Newmarket 2 3.2 Fast finish
22-09-2025 Leicester 6 0.1 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
22-09-2025 | Leicester
Rating 69 OR Unrated
22-10-2025 | Newmarket
Rating 78 OR Unrated
01-05-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 69 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:27.12 | 1:25.84 | 1:30.15

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 2 | 4

Approx winning time1m 40.06s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
01-05-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 7f | Standard | Class 4 4 10/11F -- 69 34 1 1:30.15 GOLD - faster than par
22-10-2025 Newmarket | 7f | Good | Class 4 2 11/4F -- 78 76 3.2 1:25.84 GOLD - faster than par
22-09-2025 Leicester | 7f | Good To Soft | Class 3 6 4/1 -- 69 48 0.1 1:27.23 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -4

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 74.9 and winning TS par is around 55.7. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.9 | TS edge -21.7. Benchmark fit: -3.6.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Ervani Prominent
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 14.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Stolen Kisses Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Jetpack Jimmy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ziggy Bay Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Carnival Of Light Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ceinture d'Orion Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 0.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

3:50 | Yarmouth

3:50 | Yarmouth | 8f

Class 4 | Good To Firm | quinnbet.com Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 85 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR801 rated runner | Top OR 80: Celestra
Winning Time Par2m 01.52s10 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 5.8) (Watered)Stalls Straight - Centre; 1m6f - Stands' side; 1m2f - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Celestra leads the contextual model at 43.8
  • Clearer top profile: +38.8 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 01.52s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 4 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent1
Midfield3
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
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CelestraRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 3-2-2-2 9-2 9 OR 80 82 +2lb 8/13 0 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 64% 59% 4/6 92 D Workable +9 PRICE DEPENDENT
TopathemorningRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 10.2 5-6 9-2 3 OR -- 74 -- 11/2 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 46% 49% 1/6 96 E Developing WATCH ONLY
ElshieRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 5.2 7-6 9-2 8 OR -- 74 -- 14/1 -- Freshened up Up in trip Solid field 46% 47% 2/6 96 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
SummersonRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 -- 9-2 2 OR -- -- -- 5/2 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 48% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Blue HillRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 -- 9-2 1 OR -- -- -- 10/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 48% 52% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
La MariposaRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 2.0 8-5 9-2 4 OR -- 60 -- -- -- Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 50% 50% 0/6 78 -- Developing CAUTION PROFILE
EsdaileRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -0.5 10 9-2 6 OR -- 45 -- 33/1 -- Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 48% 49% 0/6 -- E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Miss GuinevereRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style -2.9 5-9 9-2 7 OR -- 66 -- 14/1 -- Standard rest Same trip Solid field 44% 37% 0/6 96 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Delevingne DreamRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile -8.3 11-11 9-2 5 OR -- 66 -- 50/1 -- Long absence Same trip Solid field 42% 39% 1/6 86 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Celestra

Celestra profiles as a front-runner with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 4/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Topathemorning

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Celestra Front-end controller
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR82
Speed92
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+2lb near mark
FFR 82 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
92 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.8% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score43.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR82+2lb vs OR
SpeedScore92Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWorkable mark+9lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Cooling

confidence nudge +2.8
Variance Very steady 3.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.8
Ceiling Par capable 2.8 vs par
Curve Cooling Trend -1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Run faded 11-05-2026
2 Beverley Solid effort 15-04-2026
2 Newmarket (July) Solid effort 18-07-2025
2 Haydock Finished well 04-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

12
11-05-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Hot Silk (GB), Six Blue (GB), Musical Accord (GB) | Wild Violet (FR) won next/later

15-04-2026 | Beverley Finished 2

Beat: Lovers Leap (IRE), Sierra Sue (IRE), Yorkies Dream (GB) | Lillie Margot (GB) won next/later, Lovers Leap (IRE) won next/later | Wadacre Geisha (GB) placed next/later

18-07-2025 | Newmarket (July) Finished 2

Beat: Quadrillion (GB), Stay Sharp (GB), Sporty Socks (GB) | Stay Sharp (GB) won next/later | Quadrillion (GB) placed next/later, Sporty Socks (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 64% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Pace shape Question Class
Ground evidence Fast Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood To Firm
Similar-ground runs1/4
Best similar rating79
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Fast
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 82
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 75
Fast 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 79
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 74
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 35%
Mark room 79%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 58%
FFR vs OR gives +9lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +9lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +9lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 80 | FFR 82 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +9
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer John & Thady Gosden
Jockey Benoit De La Sayette
Age 3
Draw 9
OR 80
Avg OR 80
OR vs Field 0
Rating 82
TS 56
Form 22-23
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m½f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m½f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-04-2026 Beverley Good To Soft 2 1:47.14 107.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 64% Yard in a positive recent rhythm
Freshness 38 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 trainer RTF positive at 64%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP30/100F OwnerPrince A A Faisal
Sire Kingman Dam Savaanah Damsire Olden Times
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Led - faced challenge over 2f out - headed inside final furlong - soon ridden and rallied - kept on and just held(op 8/15 tchd 4/9)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-05-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) 3 1.5 Run faded
15-04-2026 Beverley 2 0.2 Fast finish
18-07-2025 Newmarket (July) 2 0.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
04-07-2025 | Haydock
Rating 75 OR Unrated
18-07-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 79 OR Unrated
15-04-2026 | Beverley
Rating 82 OR Unrated
11-05-2026 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 74 OR 81
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:47.14

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time2m 01.52s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-05-2026 Wolverhampton (AW) | 1m1½f | Standard | Class 3 3 30/100F 81 74 11 1.5 2:02.35 GREEN - within 1% of par
15-04-2026 Beverley | 1m½f | Good To Soft | Class 4 2 1/2F -- 82 56 0.2 1:47.13 GOLD - faster than par
18-07-2025 Newmarket (July) | 7f | Good To Firm | Class 4 2 15/8 -- 79 45 0.2 1:26.48 GOLD - faster than par
04-07-2025 Haydock | 7f | Good | Class 3 2 9/2 -- 75 14 1.5 1:30.72 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Workable mark

+9lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 89.1 and winning TS par is around 54.8. Runner versus par: rating edge -7.1 | TS edge +1.2. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Topathemorning Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Elshie Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 5.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Summerson Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Blue Hill Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

La Mariposa Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Esdaile Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Miss Guinevere Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Delevingne Dream Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

5:55 | Southwell (AW)

5:55 | Southwell (AW) | 5f

Class 6 | Standard | VIP Enhancement Packages At Southwell Racecourse Classified Stakes

Race Confidence 84 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR46.111 rated runners | Top OR 50: Desert Champion
Winning Time Par58.75s75 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-50
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Sir Benedict leads the contextual model at 34.8
  • Clearer top profile: +9.0 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 58.75s
Race shape Controlled tactical race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent1
Midfield2
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
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Compare
Sir BenedictRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 4-3-4-5-2-6 9-9 2 OR 49 57 +8lb 15/8 +2.9 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 61% 66% 4/6 99 C Well in +31 CAUTION PROFILE
Desert ChampionRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 37.7 6-8-7-8-8-2 9-9 10 OR 50 38 -12lb 7/2 +3.9 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 66% 62% 2/6 81 C Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Uncle SamRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 19.4 11-2-8-6-3-7 9-9 8 OR 50 55 +5lb 5/1 +3.9 Long absence Down in trip Weak field 56% 58% 0/6 87 E Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
Havin A FlyerRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 15.8 3-4-8-8-4-3 9-3 7 OR 50 46 -4lb 4/1 +3.9 Quick return Same trip Weak field 54% 52% 1/6 90 D Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
Top StarRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 14.8 5-5-10-4-7-2 9-9 11 OR 45 49 +4lb 8/1 -1.1 Quick return Same trip Weak field 56% 56% 2/6 90 D Well in +34 CAUTION PROFILE
Bust A MoonRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 11.2 11-6-11-10-3-9 9-9 4 OR 48 28 -20lb 12/1 +1.9 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 58% 64% 1/6 95 D Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
Highfield JewelRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 8.8 9-9-6-4-6 9-9 3 OR 48 25 -23lb 16/1 +1.9 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 50% 48% 1/6 93 E Well in +27 CAUTION PROFILE
Dottie DiamondRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 5.8 4-6-6-9-10-13 9-9 9 OR 40 51 +11lb 10/1 -6.1 Standard rest Same trip Weak field 58% 62% 1/6 94 D Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Posh MaisieRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 2.2 9-8-12-5-7-7 9-9 6 OR 43 24 -19lb 33/1 -3.1 Quick return Down in trip Weak field 58% 62% 0/6 99 D Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Drish SamphireRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 1.5 8-9-5-12-13-11 9-9 1 OR 40 64 +24lb 25/1 -6.1 Long absence Down in trip Weak field 56% 58% 1/6 86 E Well in +32 CAUTION PROFILE
BlueawayRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced -0.2 12-6-6-6-5-5 9-3 5 OR 44 45 +1lb 25/1 -2.1 Freshened up Big drop back Weak field 55% 56% 2/6 68 D Well in +28 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Sir Benedict

Sir Benedict profiles as a closer with a improving trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 4/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Desert Champion

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Sir Benedict Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR57
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+8lb ahead of mark
FFR 57 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
102.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score34.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR57+8lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI CHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+31lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Very steady 4.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.2
Ceiling Par capable 3.4 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Wetherby Competitive 04-06-2026
3 Musselburgh Strong run 21-05-2026
4 Hamilton Troubled run 03-05-2026
5 Catterick Run faded 08-04-2026
2 Newcastle (AW) Troubled run 12-03-2026
6 Southwell (AW) Troubled run 24-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

12
04-06-2026 | Wetherby Finished 4

Beat: Dragon God (GB), Amerjeet (GB), Mrs Trump (IRE) | Crocus Time (IRE) won next/later

21-05-2026 | Musselburgh Finished 3

Beat: Invincible Crown (IRE), Ganesha (GB), Royal Duke (GB) | Canaria Queen (GB) won next/later | Royal Duke (GB) placed next/later

03-05-2026 | Hamilton Finished 4

Beat: Doon The Glen (GB), Ganesha (GB), Thunderstorm Katie (GB) | Doon The Glen (GB) won next/later, King Of The Jungle (IRE) won next/later | Hi Lord (GB) placed next/later, Midnight Lir (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 61% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 35%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating51
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 9 1W / 1P Peak rating 57
Good 8 1W / 3P Peak rating 64
Fast 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 49
All-weather 30 0W / 6P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 66% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 74%
Class fit 14%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 68%
Proven trip profile (C)49 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +31lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +31lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +31lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 49 | FFR 57 | Best FFR 80 | FFR edge +31
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ben Haslam
Jockey Andrew Mullen
Age 8
Draw 2
OR 49
Avg OR 46.1
OR vs Field +2.9
Rating 50
TS 43
Form 625434
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 16 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 102.5% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Fast finish Finished well 23.83s recorded | FSP 102.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 5f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile49
DEIC
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
08-04-2026 Catterick Good 5 0:58.99 59
03-05-2026 Hamilton Good 4 0:59.75 59.8
21-05-2026 Musselburgh Good 3 0:59.89 59.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 45% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 14 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerVillage Racing
Sire Dandy Man Dam Kingdomforthebride Damsire Titus Livius
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Towards rear - headway 2f out - hampered inside final furlong - kept on well towards finish - bit short of room final strides (jockey said gelding was denied a clear run approaching line)(op 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
04-06-2026 Wetherby 4 0.5 Neutral finish
21-05-2026 Musselburgh 3 0.2 Fast finish
03-05-2026 Hamilton 4 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
24-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 35 OR 49
12-03-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 51 OR 47
08-04-2026 | Catterick
Rating 47 OR 48
03-05-2026 | Hamilton
Rating 50 OR 48
21-05-2026 | Musselburgh
Rating 53 OR 48
04-06-2026 | Wetherby
Rating -- OR 49
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip49 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 0:58.99 | 0:59.75 | 0:59.89

Last 3 trip positions: 5 | 4 | 3

Approx winning time58.75s
Last win at trip1:1.10 | Hamilton | 21-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +2.35s | OR 46 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
04-06-2026 Wetherby | 5.5f | Good To Firm | Class 6 4 7/1 49 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
21-05-2026 Musselburgh | 5f | Good | Class 6 3 5/1 48 53 47 0.2 0:59.89 AMBER - competitive
03-05-2026 Hamilton | 5f | Good | Class 6 4 9/2 48 50 30 0.3 0:59.75 AMBER - competitive
08-04-2026 Catterick | 5f | Good | Class 6 5 9/2F 48 47 37 1.5 0:58.99 GREEN - within 1% of par
12-03-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 2 4/1 47 51 41 1.5 1:00.44 GREY - below benchmark
24-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 6 11/4F 49 35 32 1.2 1:00.21 AMBER - competitive
Handicap Well handicapped

+31lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 65.6 and winning TS par is around 46.7. Runner versus par: rating edge -12.6 | TS edge -3.7. Benchmark fit: -3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Desert Champion Front-end controller
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 37.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Uncle Sam Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 19.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Havin A Flyer Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 15.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Top Star Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 14.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Bust A Moon Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 11.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Highfield Jewel Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Dottie Diamond Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Posh Maisie Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Drish Samphire Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 1.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Blueaway Closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:35 | Lingfield

6:35 | Lingfield | 11.5f

Class 4 | Good | Gatwick Kia PV5 Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Race Confidence 83 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR74.52 rated runners | Top OR 78: Cape Fear
Winning Time Par2m 33.50s3 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos low
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Cape Fear leads the contextual model at 33.4
  • Clearer top profile: +24.9 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 33.50s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race Handy racer in a likely tactical race. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield0
Hold-up1
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Cape FearRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 52.0 2-3-2-3-5 9-2 2 OR 78 87 +9lb evn +3.5 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 63% 61% 1/6 101 D Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
GarrinchaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 9.0 2 10-2 3 OR -- 115 -- 9/2 -- Rest developing Big drop back Solid field 50% 57% 1/6 108 D Developing WATCH ONLY
Golden StepRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 8.5 3-3 8-9 4 OR -- 57 -- 18/1 -- Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 50% 52% 0/6 95 D Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Al MasloolRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 5.4 11-5-7-3-5 9-2 5 OR 71 59 -12lb 11/1 -3.5 Quick return Up in trip Solid field 50% 56% 0/6 105 E Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
Moon ZabeelRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 4.0 -- 9-0 7 OR -- -- -- 7/2 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
ArgenteusRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-2 6 OR -- -- -- 10/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Joanna HiffernanRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.8 4-6 9-11 1 OR -- 83 -- 9/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 47% 0/6 93 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Cape Fear

Cape Fear profiles as a prominent with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 1/6. Handy racer in a likely tactical race

Main Danger Garrincha

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Cape Fear Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 52.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement1/6
FFR87
Speed101
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+9lb ahead of mark
FFR 87 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
Best reasonModel evidence is not clean enough for a positive stance Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score33.4raw
Agreement1/6
FFR87+9lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+13lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +2.5
Variance Very steady 3.8% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6.7 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Redcar Solid effort 26-05-2026
3 Windsor Run faded 11-05-2026
2 Beverley Solid effort 23-04-2026
3 Bath Run faded 05-04-2026
5 Brighton Competitive 16-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

7
26-05-2026 | Redcar Finished 2

Beat: Talitha Rouge (IRE), Poppeye (GB), Champion Lawman (IRE)

11-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 3

Beat: Probation (GB), Relentless Hero (GB), Billingsgate Gold (GB) | Relentless Hero (GB) won next/later | My Mate Roger (IRE) placed next/later, Probation (GB) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Beverley Finished 2

Beat: Three No Trumps (GB), Le Morbihan (FR), Al Maslool (GB) | Fighters Spirit (IRE) won next/later | Mayflower Billy (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 63% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 48%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/5
Best similar rating77
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 0W / 2P Peak rating 77
Fast 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 80
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 61% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 29%
Mark room 91%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +13lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concern
Mark read FFR vs OR: +13lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +13lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 78 | FFR 87 | Best FFR 91 | FFR edge +13
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Balding
Jockey Callum Hutchinson
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 78
Avg OR 74.5
OR vs Field +3.5
Rating 77
TS 56
Form 5-3232
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile4
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
23-04-2026 Beverley Good 2 2:5.17 125.2
11-05-2026 Windsor Good To Firm 3 2:9.29 129.3
26-05-2026 Redcar Good To Firm 2 2:5.56 125.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 23 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP10/11F OwnerKingsclere Racing Club
Sire Kameko Dam Cape Spirit Damsire Cape Cross
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Raced in second - pressed leader 4f out - led over 2f out - soon hung right - kept on inside final furlong - reduced lead towards finish - headed final strides(op 5/2 tchd 6/5)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
26-05-2026 Redcar 2 0.8 Fast finish
11-05-2026 Windsor 3 5.5 Run faded
23-04-2026 Beverley 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 2 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
16-10-2025 | Brighton
Rating 56 OR Unrated
05-04-2026 | Bath
Rating 70 OR Unrated
23-04-2026 | Beverley
Rating 77 OR Unrated
11-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 76 OR 78
26-05-2026 | Redcar
Rating 80 OR 78
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:5.17 | 2:9.29 | 2:5.56

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 3 | 2

Approx winning time2m 33.50s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
26-05-2026 Redcar | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 4 2 10/11F 78 80 71 0.8 2:05.56 GOLD - faster than par
11-05-2026 Windsor | 1m2f | Good To Firm | Class 4 3 100/30 78 76 55 5.5 2:09.29 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Beverley | 1m2f | Good | Class 4 2 5/4F -- 77 49 0.5 2:05.17 GOLD - faster than par
05-04-2026 Bath | 1m2f | Good | Class 4 3 7/1 -- 70 56 0.1 2:11.84 GOLD - faster than par
16-10-2025 Brighton | 1m | Good To Firm | Class 4 5 16/1 -- 56 17 0.2 1:36.53 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+13lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 88 and winning TS par is around 51.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -11.0 | TS edge +4.7. Benchmark fit: -0.3.

Model agreement 1/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Garrincha Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Golden Step Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Al Maslool Closer
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 5.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Moon Zabeel Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Argenteus Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Joanna Hiffernan Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:10 | Lingfield

7:10 | Lingfield | 16.5f

Class 5 | Good | Free Tips At chracingclub.com Handicap

Race Confidence 82 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR70.36 rated runners | Top OR 72: Kitty Foyle
Winning Time ParAwaiting timing benchmark0 race distance-only sample | approximate
Race SetupGOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 8.6) (Rail Movements: 5.20, 6, 6.35 & 7.10 +13yds)Stalls 1m2f - Inside; 1m3f & 2m - Outside; Remainder - Centre | Rail No rail note | Band 0-75
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • Rogue Empire leads the contextual model at 46.8
  • Clearer top profile: +8.8 gap to nearest rival
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 3 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield2
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Rogue EmpireRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Late-speed profile 71.0 1-1-3-6-3-3 9-3 3 OR 66 79 +13lb 4/6 -4.3 Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 71% 73% 3/6 114 C Well in +23 PRICE DEPENDENT
Kitty FoyleRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 51.9 2-1-3-5-3-4 9-9 1 OR 72 102 +30lb 9/2 +1.7 Rest developing Big drop back Solid field 58% 67% 1/6 100 D Well in +30 WATCH ONLY
NaasmaRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 45.0 4-5-4-4-1-1 9-9 6 OR 72 81 +9lb 15/2 +1.7 Layoff check Down in trip Solid field 66% 73% 2/6 98 A Well in +16 WATCH ONLY
An Bradan FeasaRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 42.5 3-2-1-4-1-1 9-9 2 OR 72 88 +16lb 6/1 +1.7 Rest developing Down in trip Solid field 66% 78% 2/6 71 A Well in +39 CAUTION PROFILE
Diamond BayRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 13.9 5-7-6-14-3-4 9-5 4 OR 68 69 +1lb 7/1 -2.3 Standard rest Big step up Solid field 58% 65% 1/6 96 D Well in +18 WATCH ONLY
Love Is GoldenRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 7.8 9-8-1-3-1 9-9 5 OR 72 44 -28lb 50/1 +1.7 Standard rest Down in trip Solid field 61% 65% 0/6 94 C Well in +44 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Rogue Empire

Rogue Empire profiles as a front-runner with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is C. Model alignment is 3/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Kitty Foyle

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Rogue Empire Front-end controller
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 71.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR79
Speed114
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+13lb ahead of mark
FFR 79 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
114 Par 100
FSP%faded late
95.9% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score46.8raw
Agreement3/6
FFR79+13lb vs OR
SpeedScore114Elite clock figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+23lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Variable; High bounce risk; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Improving

confidence nudge +1.9
Variance Variable 10.2% volatility
Bounce High bounce risk Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.8
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 14.1 vs par
Curve Improving Trend 2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
1 Kempton (AW) Finished well 10-06-2026
1 Lingfield Strong run 18-05-2026
3 Kempton (AW) Run faded 04-05-2026
6 Chelmsford (AW) Troubled run 09-10-2025
3 Kempton (AW) Run faded 18-09-2025
3 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 04-09-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

4
10-06-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Vilaine Verlaine (GB), Tarbat Ness (GB), Karthon (GB)

18-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 1

Beat: Balgowan (IRE), Golden Samba (GB), Smokey Malone (GB) | Smokey Malone (GB) placed next/later

04-05-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Crackergee (GB), Karthon (GB), Capone (GER) | Crackergee (GB) won next/later | Now The Eagle (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 71% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 50%
Pace shape 100%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Pace shape Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating70
Best ground bandGood
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 2 1W / 1P Peak rating 70
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 6 1W / 4P Peak rating 70
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 68%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 72%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +23lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +23lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +23lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 66 | FFR 79 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +23
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Roger Teal
Jockey Owen Lewis(5)
Age 4
Draw 3
OR 66
Avg OR 70.3
OR vs Field -4.3
Rating 60
TS --
Form 36-311
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 95.9% Late effort faded
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Slow finish Late effort faded 22.53s recorded | FSP 95.9%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile4
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
18-09-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 3 3:32.48 212.5
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 3 3:40.21 220.2
10-06-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 1 3:37.50 217.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 40% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 8 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/1 OwnerThe Idle B's
Sire Time Test Dam Magic Meg Damsire Raven's Pass
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Led - edged left and headed over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 18/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
10-06-2026 Kempton (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
18-05-2026 Lingfield 1 0 Fast finish
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) 3 3.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 5 runs with an official OR.
04-09-2025 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 68 OR 65
18-09-2025 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 70 OR 64
09-10-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 40 OR 64
04-05-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 60 OR 62
18-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating 70 OR 60
10-06-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating -- OR 66
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 3:32.48 | 3:40.21 | 3:37.50

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 3 | 1

Approx winning timeAwaiting timing benchmark
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
10-06-2026 Kempton (AW) | 16f | Standard To Slow | Class 5 1 5/1 66 -- -- 0 -- GREY - no timing read
18-05-2026 Lingfield | 2m½f | Good | Class 6 1 4/1 60 70 64 0 3:35.80 GREY - no timing read
04-05-2026 Kempton (AW) | 2m | Standard To Slow | Class 5 3 14/1 62 60 -- 3.5 3:40.00 GREY - no timing read
09-10-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 1m6f | Standard | Class 6 6 4/1 64 40 35 2 3:3.11 GREY - no timing read
18-09-2025 Kempton (AW) | 2m | Standard To Slow | Class 5 3 15/2 64 70 -- 0.5 3:32.48 GREY - no timing read
04-09-2025 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 6 3 12/1 65 68 4 0.1 3:32.28 GREY - no timing read
Handicap Well handicapped

+23lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Benchmark evidence is still developing for this course, class, going and distance profile.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Kitty Foyle Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 51.9
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement1/6
FFR102
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+30lb ahead of mark
FFR 102 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.5% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score29.5raw
Agreement1/6
FFR102+30lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+30lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +3.9
Variance Very steady 4.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.5
Ceiling Ceiling edge 6 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Huntingdon Finished well 19-05-2026
1 Wincanton Strong run 12-04-2026
3 Kempton Finished well 24-11-2025
5 Exeter Run faded 07-11-2025
3 Stratford Solid effort 18-10-2025
4 Goodwood Run faded 24-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

10
19-05-2026 | Huntingdon Finished 2

Beat: Tiger Orchid (IRE), Thank You Maam (GB), Billy Boi Blue (GB) | Sunray Shadow (GB) won next/later, Tiger Orchid (IRE) won next/later

12-04-2026 | Wincanton Finished 1

Beat: Sinchi Roca (IRE)

24-11-2025 | Kempton Finished 3

Beat: Getalead (IRE), Jimmy Hurdstrom (IRE), Lunar Power (IRE) | Court In A Storm (IRE) placed next/later, Everyonesgame (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs4/6
Best similar rating122
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 1W / 3P Peak rating 117
Good 7 2W / 5P Peak rating 122
Fast 5 0W / 4P Peak rating 119
All-weather 11 0W / 1P Peak rating 74
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +30lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +30lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +30lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 102 | Best FFR 102 | FFR edge +30
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Daisy Hitchins
Jockey Millie Wonnacott(5)
Age 6
Draw 1
OR 72
Avg OR 70.3
OR vs Field +1.7
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form /5224-
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.5% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 24.97s recorded | FSP 100.5%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Recent matched-distance times are moving the right way.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile4
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-06-2025 Newbury Good To Firm 2 3:34.74 214.7
24-07-2025 Newbury Good To Firm 2 3:29.43 209.4
24-08-2025 Goodwood Good To Firm 4 3:30.22 210.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF 14% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness -- Freshness data unavailable
Micro score -0.5 trainer RTF cold at 14%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP100/30 OwnerTroika Racing
Sire Teofilo Dam Kazimiera Damsire Dubawi
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.3L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-05-2026 Huntingdon 2 1.5 Fast finish
12-04-2026 Wincanton 1 0 Neutral finish
24-11-2025 Kempton 3 2.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 6 runs with an official OR.
24-08-2025 | Goodwood
Rating 54 OR 73
18-10-2025 | Stratford
Rating 117 OR 118
07-11-2025 | Exeter
Rating 105 OR 117
24-11-2025 | Kempton
Rating 115 OR 115
12-04-2026 | Wincanton
Rating 122 OR 116
19-05-2026 | Huntingdon
Rating 119 OR 120
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip4 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 3:34.74 | 3:29.43 | 3:30.22

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 2 | 4

Approx winning timeAwaiting timing benchmark
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-05-2026 Huntingdon | 3m1f | Good To Firm | Class 3 2 100/30 120 119 111 1.5 6:11.14 GREY - no timing read
12-04-2026 Wincanton | 3m½f | Good | Class 4 1 4/1 116 122 91 0 6:06.14 GREY - no timing read
24-11-2025 Kempton | 3m½f | Good | Class 4 3 17/2 115 115 104 2.5 6:20.44 GREY - no timing read
07-11-2025 Exeter | 2m2½f | Good | Class 4 5 13/2 117 105 97 18 4:32.85 GREY - no timing read
18-10-2025 Stratford | 2m½f | Good | Class 4 3 2/1 118 117 72 1.2 3:55.66 GREY - no timing read
24-08-2025 Goodwood | 2m | Good To Firm | Class 3 4 5/1 73 54 53 16 3:30.91 GREY - no timing read
Handicap Well handicapped

+30lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Benchmark evidence is still developing for this course, class, going and distance profile.

Model agreement 1/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Naasma Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 45.0
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: no major model risk flagged.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement2/6
FFR81
Speed98
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+9lb ahead of mark
FFR 81 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
119.4% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskNo major model risk flagged
Model Score20.5raw
Agreement2/6
FFR81+9lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+16lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.0
Variance Reliable 6.3% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 10
Ceiling Par capable 4.3 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
4 Kempton (AW) Steady run 25-03-2026
5 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 31-01-2026
4 Lingfield (AW) Run faded 10-01-2026
4 Epsom Steady run 28-09-2025
1 Windsor Troubled run 08-09-2025
1 Windsor Strong run 18-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 7 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

20
25-03-2026 | Kempton (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Sword Of Wessex (IRE) | High Point (IRE) won next/later, Sword Of Wessex (IRE) won next/later | Fleurman (IRE) placed next/later

31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Vice President (IRE), Bashful Boy (IRE), Knight Templar (GB) | Berkshire Sundance (IRE) won next/later, Haaland (IRE) won next/later | Educator (GB) placed next/later

10-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Tortured Soul (GB), Connie Moon (IRE), Raintown (IRE) | Charlies Choice (GB) won next/later, Wonder (GB) won next/later | Blue Universe (IRE) placed next/later, Damascus Steel (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating79
Best ground bandFast
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 75
Good 6 1W / 4P Peak rating 79
Fast 7 2W / 5P Peak rating 77
All-weather 9 2W / 6P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 73% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 50%
Proven trip profile (A)6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +16lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +16lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +16lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 81 | Best FFR 88 | FFR edge +16
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Pat Phelan
Jockey Darragh Keenan
Age 7
Draw 6
OR 72
Avg OR 70.3
OR vs Field +1.7
Rating 71
TS 48
Form 14-454
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 13 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 119.4% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 22.39s recorded | FSP 119.4%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile6
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
26-03-2025 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 2 3:31.97 212
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 5 3:30.93 210.9
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) Standard To Slow 4 3:32.62 212.6
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF -- Trainer recent-form data unavailable
Freshness 85 days Standard layoff
Micro score -0.5 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerP Wheatley
Sire Churchill Dam Music Show Damsire Noverre
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Taken down early - held up in rear - some headway over 1f out - outpaced inside final furlong(op 15/2 tchd 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) 4 4.5 Neutral finish
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) 5 1.5 Fast finish
10-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) 4 0.5 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
18-08-2025 | Windsor
Rating 77 OR 70
08-09-2025 | Windsor
Rating 79 OR 72
28-09-2025 | Epsom
Rating 72 OR 74
10-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 78 OR 74
31-01-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 78 OR 74
25-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 71 OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 3:31.97 | 3:30.93 | 3:32.62

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 5 | 4

Approx winning timeAwaiting timing benchmark
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
25-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 2m | Standard To Slow | Class 4 4 6/1 73 71 48 4.5 3:32.38 GREY - no timing read
31-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 4 5 20/1 74 78 15 1.5 3:30.93 GREY - no timing read
10-01-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 5 4 14/1 74 78 12 0.5 2:38.37 GREY - no timing read
28-09-2025 Epsom | 1m4f | Good | Class 4 4 11/1 74 72 54 4 2:42.55 GREY - no timing read
08-09-2025 Windsor | 1m3½f | Good | Class 5 1 8/1 72 79 66 0 2:26.95 GREY - no timing read
18-08-2025 Windsor | 1m3½f | Good To Firm | Class 5 1 9/4C 70 77 74 0 2:28.68 GREY - no timing read
Handicap Well handicapped

+16lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Benchmark evidence is still developing for this course, class, going and distance profile.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
An Bradan Feasa Distance specialist
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 42.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement2/6
FFR88
Speed71
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR+16lb ahead of mark
FFR 88 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
71 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
115.5% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskRaw score needs more support
Model Score38.0raw
Agreement2/6
FFR88+16lb vs OR
SpeedScore71Speed caution
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+39lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Volatile; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Regressing

confidence nudge +0.5
Variance Volatile 16.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 9.8
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 19.5 vs par
Curve Regressing Trend -2
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Fakenham Solid effort 31-05-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Solid effort 12-05-2026
1 Chelmsford (AW) Strong run 27-11-2025
4 Southwell (AW) Competitive 03-11-2025
1 Southwell Finished well 02-10-2025
1 Worcester Finished well 05-09-2025
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 1 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

4
31-05-2026 | Fakenham Finished 3

Beat: Blackwater Lilly (GB)

12-05-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Polling Day (IRE), The Truant (IRE), Bulldog Spirit (IRE)

27-11-2025 | Chelmsford (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Saratoga Gold (GB), D Day Arvalenreeva (IRE), Red Flyer (IRE) | Gemmari (GB) won next/later | D Day Arvalenreeva (IRE) placed next/later, Saratoga Gold (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/6
Best similar rating116
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 10 2W / 4P Peak rating 120
Good 7 2W / 4P Peak rating 120
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 6 1W / 2P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 78% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
Proven trip profile (A)6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +39lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +39lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +39lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 72 | FFR 88 | Best FFR 111 | FFR edge +39
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Jack Jones
Jockey Dylan Hogan
Age 6
Draw 2
OR 72
Avg OR 70.3
OR vs Field +1.7
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 4441-2
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 115.5% Strong finish
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance2m
Runs at profile6
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
27-11-2025 Chelmsford (AW) Standard 1 3:42.84 222.8
12-05-2026 Lingfield (AW) Standard 2 3:39.01 219
31-05-2026 Fakenham Good 3 3:52.09 232.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 43% Trainer form is steady
Freshness -- Freshness data unavailable
Micro score +0.0 API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/4 OwnerJack Jones
Sire Camelot Dam Grianan Ailigh Damsire Shantou
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 6.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
31-05-2026 Fakenham 3 18 Neutral finish
12-05-2026 Lingfield (AW) 2 1.2 Fast finish
27-11-2025 Chelmsford (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 5 runs with an official OR.
05-09-2025 | Worcester
Rating 116 OR 108
02-10-2025 | Southwell
Rating 113 OR 113
03-11-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 74 OR 71
27-11-2025 | Chelmsford (AW)
Rating 78 OR 70
12-05-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 76 OR 72
31-05-2026 | Fakenham
Rating -- OR 116
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 3:42.84 | 3:39.01 | 3:52.09

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2 | 3

Approx winning timeAwaiting timing benchmark
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
31-05-2026 Fakenham | 16f | Good | Class 4 3 11/4 116 -- -- 18 -- GREY - no timing read
12-05-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 5 2 11/2 72 76 -- 1.2 3:39.01 GREY - no timing read
27-11-2025 Chelmsford (AW) | 2m | Standard | Class 5 1 7/4 70 78 -- 0 3:42.84 GREY - no timing read
03-11-2025 Southwell (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | Class 5 4 9/1 71 74 63 0.1 2:35.53 GREY - no timing read
02-10-2025 Southwell | 2m4½f | Good | Class 4 1 13/8F 113 113 71 0 5:3.00 GREY - no timing read
05-09-2025 Worcester | 2m | Good | Class 4 1 2/1 108 116 84 0 3:57.12 GREY - no timing read
Handicap Well handicapped

+39lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Benchmark evidence is still developing for this course, class, going and distance profile.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Diamond Bay Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 13.9
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Love Is Golden Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 7.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

5:10 | Leopardstown

5:10 | Leopardstown | 7f

| Good | BOYLE Sports Money Back If 2nd To SP Fav Handicap

Race Confidence 80 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAPace-pressure sprint
Chaos IndexHigh
Average OR67.517 rated runners | Top OR 72: Faoladh
Winning Time Par1m 29.26s3 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Pace-pressure sprint | chaos high
  • Pace pressure expected -- finishing efficiency matters
  • Apache Outlaw leads the contextual model at 36.3
  • Moderate edge over next best: +3.8
  • Winning-time par: 1m 29.26s
Race shape Pace-pressure sprint Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race. 5 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders3
Prominent3
Midfield2
Hold-up4
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
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Apache OutlawRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 82.0 6-11-8-6-3-4 10-0 11 OR 70 64 -6lb 14/1 +2.5 Standard rest Up in trip Modest field 70% 77% 5/6 99 A Well in +20 PRICE DEPENDENT
Goal ExceededRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 74.0 3-10-2-6-8-5 9-10 4 OR 66 84 +18lb 9/2 -1.5 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 74% 69% 3/6 106 B Well in +23 PRICE DEPENDENT
Send HarryRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 59.2 6-10-2-1-3-3 10-1 12 OR 71 73 +2lb 18/1 +3.5 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 66% 72% 4/6 101 A Well in +16 PRICE DEPENDENT
Perfect BaseRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 46.5 3-11-2-6 10-1 10 OR 71 74 +3lb 14/1 +3.5 Long absence Same trip Modest field 56% 59% 2/6 96 D Workable +11 WATCH ONLY
FaoladhRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Limited sectional edge 31.3 1-3-6-4-9-10 10-2 14 OR 72 80 +8lb 4/1 +4.5 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 58% 62% 0/6 111 C Well in +13 CAUTION PROFILE
ReposadoRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 20.0 8-2-2-6-2-4 9-13 8 OR 69 68 -1lb 11/2 +1.5 Standard rest Big step up Modest field 57% 60% 2/6 91 D Well in +14 CAUTION PROFILE
LoingseoirRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 16.5 4-4-7-9-14-1 9-12 15 OR 68 70 +2lb 9/1 +0.5 Quick return Down in trip Modest field 72% 69% 2/6 93 B Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
Irish RumourRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 12.2 2-15-5-2-8-5 9-8 16 OR 64 73 +9lb 11/2 -3.5 Standard rest Trip move developing Modest field 58% 62% 2/6 81 D Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Buttermere RidgeRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 9.5 14-13-6-10-19 10-1 3 OR 71 60 -11lb 60/1 +3.5 Long absence Down in trip Modest field 58% 66% 0/6 87 D Well in +37 CAUTION PROFILE
Free SoloRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 9.4 6-11-7-11-13-12 9-10 5 OR 66 59 -7lb 16/1 -1.5 Quick return Trip move developing Modest field 65% 59% 2/6 93 D Workable +7 CAUTION PROFILE
Phoenix PaircRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 8.3 11-9-1-3-4-4 9-13 9 OR 69 70 +1lb 20/1 +1.5 Long absence Same trip Modest field 61% 65% 1/6 99 C Well in +20 CAUTION PROFILE
Mickey The SteelRun style: ProminentFinish: Balanced 7.5 7-3-13-2-3-3 9-9 7 OR 65 62 -3lb 11/1 -2.5 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 57% 55% 1/6 93 D Well in +17 CAUTION PROFILE
HexagonalRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 5.9 9-4-2-8-7-13 9-8 13 OR 64 49 -15lb 16/1 -3.5 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 54% 52% 2/6 96 E Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
NavagioRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 2.5 14-6-15-15-18-12 9-12 6 OR 68 67 -1lb 22/1 +0.5 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 53% 51% 2/6 92 E Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Eichan SanRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 1.4 5-8-11-4-19-7 9-6 2 OR 62 60 -2lb 11/2 -5.5 Standard rest Big step up Modest field 64% 57% 2/6 92 E Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
ArdeurRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Limited sectional edge 0.6 15-15-8-9-7-4 10-0 1 OR 70 60 -10lb 40/1 +2.5 Layoff check Down in trip Modest field 49% 53% 0/6 88 E Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
Caffu ZafeenRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile -1.2 18-6-6-6-6-6 9-6 17 OR 62 34 -28lb 28/1 -5.5 Standard rest Up in trip Modest field 58% 60% 1/6 94 D Well in +18 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Apache Outlaw

Apache Outlaw profiles as a midfield with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A. Model alignment is 5/6. Strong/sustained finisher in a pace-pressure race

Main Danger Goal Exceeded

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Apache Outlaw Midfield
Model agreement 5/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 82.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement5/6
FFR64
Speed99
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementStrong setup
FFR vs OR-6lb below mark
FFR 64 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100.1% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score36.3raw
Agreement5/6
FFR64-6lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI AHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+20lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Very steady 4.6% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.8
Ceiling Ceiling edge 8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Listowel (IRE) Competitive 31-05-2026
11 Lingfield (AW) Competitive 03-04-2026
8 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 20-02-2026
6 Newcastle (AW) Run faded 06-02-2026
3 Dundalk (AW) Solid effort 16-01-2026
4 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 17-12-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

20
31-05-2026 | Listowel (IRE) Finished 6

Beat: Alfred Tennyson (IRE), Mint Man (GB), Altimara (IRE) | Alfred Tennyson (IRE) placed next/later

03-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW) Finished 11

Betsen (GB) won next/later, Justcallmepete (GB) won next/later | Accrual (GB) placed next/later, Carbine Harvester (FR) placed next/later

20-02-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 8

Beat: Little Queenie (IRE), Prairie Girl (IRE) | Clonmacash (GB) won next/later | Alfred Tennyson (IRE) placed next/later, Collective Power (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 70% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 57%
Pace shape 60%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 11 0W / 2P Peak rating 96
Good 18 1W / 2P Peak rating 101
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 15 3W / 7P Peak rating 104
Placement evidence 77% Strong placement evidence
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 63%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (A)10 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +20lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +20lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +20lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 70 | FFR 64 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +20
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Adrian McGuinness
Jockey Leigh Roche
Age 6
Draw 11
OR 70
Avg OR 67.5
OR vs Field +2.5
Rating 80
TS 81
Form -36806
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 14 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 100.1% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 23.09s recorded | FSP 100.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile10
DEIA
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
07-08-2025 Chepstow Good To Soft 10 1:23.46 83.5
17-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 4 1:26.34 86.3
16-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 3 1:25.09 85.1
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 31% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 18 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerDooley Thoroughbreds & J Fairhurst
Sire Churchill Dam Focus Of Attention Damsire Intense Focus
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Slowly away - towards rear throughout (jockey said gelding accelerated the gate and was slowly as a result)(tchd 12/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) 6 0.5 Neutral finish
03-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) 11 1.5 Neutral finish
20-02-2026 Dundalk (AW) 8 0.1 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 5 runs with an official OR.
17-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 99 OR 96
16-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 95 OR 94
06-02-2026 | Newcastle (AW)
Rating 91 OR 93
20-02-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 82 OR 92
03-04-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 80 OR 90
31-05-2026 | Listowel (IRE)
Rating -- OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip10 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:23.46 | 1:26.34 | 1:25.09

Last 3 trip positions: 10 | 4 | 3

Approx winning time1m 29.26s
Last win at trip1:25.86 | Dundalk (AW) (IRE) | 18-12-2024

Last distance win context: vs par -3.4s | OR 94 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) | 6.5f | Good | -- 6 7/1 73 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
03-04-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 3 11 14/1 90 80 67 1.5 1:10.80 GOLD - faster than par
20-02-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 6f | Standard | -- 8 9/2 92 82 33 0.1 1:14.20 GOLD - faster than par
06-02-2026 Newcastle (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 3 6 12/1 93 91 81 0.1 0:57.83 GOLD - faster than par
16-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 3 9/1 94 95 68 1.2 1:25.09 GOLD - faster than par
17-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 4 22/1 96 99 67 0.5 1:26.34 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+20lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 2

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 93 and winning TS par is around 61.7. Runner versus par: rating edge +2.0 | TS edge +19.3. Benchmark fit: 1.6.

Model agreement 5/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Goal Exceeded Late pressure closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR84
Speed106
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+18lb ahead of mark
FFR 84 pounds scale
SpeedScoreabove par
106 Par 100
FSP%even finish
98.6% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score32.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR84+18lb vs OR
SpeedScore106Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI BHIGH
HandicapWell handicapped+23lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Big ceiling edge; Stable

confidence nudge +4.0
Variance Reliable 7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.8
Ceiling Big ceiling edge 17.4 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Cork Run faded 19-05-2026
10 Curragh Run faded 19-04-2026
2 Leopardstown Finished well 15-04-2026
6 Curragh Run faded 02-11-2025
8 Curragh Finished well 16-10-2025
5 Curragh (IRE) Run faded 04-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

18
19-05-2026 | Cork Finished 3

Beat: Brewing (GB), Gleneagle Bay (IRE), Send Harry (IRE) | Gleneagle Bay (IRE) won next/later

19-04-2026 | Curragh Finished 10

Beat: Smoke Them Out (IRE), Lahore Da King (IRE), Mickey The Steel (GB) | Jon Riggens (IRE) won next/later, L L Koulsty (IRE) won next/later | Earls (IRE) placed next/later, Hexagonal (IRE) placed next/later

15-04-2026 | Leopardstown Finished 2

Beat: Greek Flower (IRE), Sennas Girl (IRE), Chester Nimitz (IRE) | Anvika (IRE) placed next/later, Hugos Girl (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 74% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 78%
Class 51%
Pace shape 100%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Pace shape Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 12 1W / 3P Peak rating 85
Good 8 1W / 2P Peak rating 85
Fast 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 77
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 33%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (B)11 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +23lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +23lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +23lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 66 | FFR 84 | Best FFR 89 | FFR edge +23
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Adrian McGuinness
Jockey Adam Caffrey
Age 5
Draw 4
OR 66
Avg OR 67.5
OR vs Field -1.5
Rating 58
TS 70
Form 86-203
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 6 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 98.6% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile11
DEIB
ReliabilityHIGH
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
15-04-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Yielding To Soft 2 1:30.90 90.9
19-04-2026 Curragh (IRE) Soft 10 1:32.30 92.3
19-05-2026 Cork (IRE) Soft To Heavy 3 1:30.48 90.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 31% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 30 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: t; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgeart | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP3/1J OwnerMs H McGuinness/Martin W White/Declan Sheridan/Breen White
Sire Iffraaj Dam Twinkle Twinkle Damsire Exceed And Excel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this tripBeaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Towards rear - headway on near side of group 2f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 3/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-05-2026 Cork 3 1 Neutral finish
19-04-2026 Curragh 10 1 Neutral finish
15-04-2026 Leopardstown 2 0.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 2 of 6 runs with an official OR.
04-10-2025 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 61 OR 72
16-10-2025 | Curragh
Rating 66 OR 70
02-11-2025 | Curragh
Rating 64 OR 68
15-04-2026 | Leopardstown
Rating 73 OR 67
19-04-2026 | Curragh
Rating 58 OR 67
19-05-2026 | Cork
Rating 73 OR 69
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip11 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityHIGH

Last 3 trip times: 1:30.90 | 1:32.30 | 1:30.48

Last 3 trip positions: 2 | 10 | 3

Approx winning time1m 29.26s
Last win at trip1:26.09 | Curragh (IRE) | 24-05-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -3.17s | OR 73 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-05-2026 Cork | 7f | Soft To Heavy | -- 3 3/1J 69 73 63 1 1:30.48 AMBER - competitive
19-04-2026 Curragh | 7f | Soft | -- 10 100/30 67 58 35 1 1:32.30 GREY - below benchmark
15-04-2026 Leopardstown | 7f | Yielding To Soft | -- 2 11/2 67 73 70 0.5 1:30.90 AMBER - competitive
02-11-2025 Curragh | 7f | Heavy | -- 6 14/1 68 64 33 0.2 1:32.95 GREY - below benchmark
16-10-2025 Curragh | 7f | Yielding | -- 8 9/1 70 66 25 0.2 1:31.99 GREY - below benchmark
04-10-2025 Curragh (IRE) | 6f | Soft To Heavy | -- 5 13/2 72 61 48 0.5 1:16.26 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+23lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 93 and winning TS par is around 61.7. Runner versus par: rating edge -20.0 | TS edge +8.3. Benchmark fit: 0.3.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Send Harry Prominent
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 59.2
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR73
Speed101
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+2lb near mark
FFR 73 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
107% 100% par
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskRace shape is high variance
Model Score24.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR73+2lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+16lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.2
Variance Very steady 2.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.7
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Cork Run faded 19-05-2026
10 Curragh Run faded 04-05-2026
2 Dundalk (AW) Strong run 12-11-2025
1 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Strong run 19-09-2025
3 Curragh (IRE) Strong run 30-08-2025
3 Curragh (IRE) Solid effort 16-08-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

17
19-05-2026 | Cork Finished 6

Beat: Usuario Amigo (GB), Dragon Of Malta (IRE) | Gleneagle Bay (IRE) won next/later

04-05-2026 | Curragh Finished 10

Beat: Rappell (IRE), Platino Bianco (IRE), Blue Anthem (GB) | I'm Spartacus (IRE) won next/later, Jon Riggens (IRE) won next/later | Amerilis (GB) placed next/later, Genesis (IRE) placed next/later

12-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 2

Beat: Jazzy Dancer (IRE), Im Spartacus (IRE), Prime Sign (IRE) | Im Spartacus (IRE) won next/later, Jazzy Dancer (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 51%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Pace shape
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating68
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 6 0W / 3P Peak rating 74
Good 5 0W / 2P Peak rating 68
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 4 1W / 2P Peak rating 80
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 100%
Class fit 51%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A)5 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +16lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +16lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +16lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 71 | FFR 73 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge +16
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Miss Evanna McCutcheon
Jockey Jimmy Dalton(7)
Age 4
Draw 12
OR 71
Avg OR 67.5
OR vs Field +3.5
Rating No rating yet
TS 64
Form 312-06
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 8 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 107.0% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile5
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
19-09-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 1 1:27.00 87
12-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 2 1:26.11 86.1
19-05-2026 Cork (IRE) Soft To Heavy 6 1:31.68 91.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 33% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 30 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 no recent matched-ground timing evidence; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: ht; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearht | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP8/1 OwnerGolden Brown Syndicate
Sire Harry Angel Dam Send Up Damsire Fastnet Rock
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Distance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

Prominent and alone up the centre - joined main group after 2f - outpaced over 1f out - weakened inside final furlong(op 18/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.9L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
19-05-2026 Cork 6 1.5 Run faded
04-05-2026 Curragh 10 1 Run faded
12-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) 2 0.3 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
16-08-2025 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 68 OR 67
30-08-2025 | Curragh (IRE)
Rating 74 OR 67
19-09-2025 | Dundalk (AW) (IRE)
Rating 75 OR 67
12-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 79 OR 72
04-05-2026 | Curragh
Rating 68 OR 75
19-05-2026 | Cork
Rating 62 OR 74
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:27.00 | 1:26.11 | 1:31.68

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 2 | 6

Approx winning time1m 29.26s
Last win at trip1:27.00 | Dundalk (AW) (IRE) | 19-09-2025

Last distance win context: vs par -2.26s | OR 67 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
19-05-2026 Cork | 7f | Soft To Heavy | -- 6 8/1 74 62 51 1.5 1:31.68 GREY - below benchmark
04-05-2026 Curragh | 6f | Good | -- 10 16/1 75 68 64 1 1:12.86 GOLD - faster than par
12-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 7f | Standard | -- 2 5/2F 72 79 72 0.3 1:26.11 GOLD - faster than par
19-09-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) | 7f | Standard | -- 1 4/1 67 75 60 0 1:27.00 GOLD - faster than par
30-08-2025 Curragh (IRE) | 6f | Good To Yielding | -- 3 7/1 67 74 67 0.3 1:11.70 GOLD - faster than par
16-08-2025 Curragh (IRE) | 6f | Good | -- 3 12/1 67 68 62 2 1:12.41 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+16lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 93 and winning TS par is around 61.7. Runner versus par: TS edge +2.3. Benchmark fit: 0.3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Perfect Base Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 46.5
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement2/6
FFR74
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+3lb near mark
FFR 74 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
106.6% 100% par
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score25.5raw
Agreement2/6
FFR74+3lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapWorkable mark+11lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.5
Variance Very steady 3.9% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7
Ceiling Par capable 2.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
-- Down Royal (IRE) Run faded 29-09-2025
3 Roscommon (IRE) Solid effort 19-08-2025
11 Naas (IRE) Troubled run 04-08-2025
2 Fairyhouse (IRE) Solid effort 09-07-2025
6 Punchestown (IRE) Competitive 17-09-2024
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 6 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

20
19-08-2025 | Roscommon (IRE) Finished 3

Beat: Faberi (IRE), Ready To Mingle (IRE), Suerte (IRE) | Proxima Centauri (FR) won next/later, Syzygy (GB) won next/later | Ready To Mingle (IRE) placed next/later

04-08-2025 | Naas (IRE) Finished 11

Beat: Guarded (IRE), Dolly Hello (IRE), Saintly One (IRE) | Adrienne (IRE) won next/later, Cash Me (IRE) won next/later | Dolly Hello (IRE) placed next/later, Kakori (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 76%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs3/5
Best similar rating72
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 67
Good 3 0W / 2P Peak rating 72
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 59% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 85%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 50%
FFR vs OR gives +11lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence is mixed
Mark read FFR vs OR: +11lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Workable mark +11lb FFR vs OR

The mark looks competitive against the horse's recorded FFR evidence.

Today's OR 71 | FFR 74 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +11
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 3: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Miss Natalia Lupini
Jockey Paddy Harnett(5)
Age 2
Draw 10
OR 71
Avg OR 67.5
OR vs Field +3.5
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form /2034D-
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance7f
Runs at profile3
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
17-09-2024 Punchestown (IRE) Good 6 1:29.75 89.8
09-07-2025 Fairyhouse (IRE) Good 2 1:27.22 87.2
29-09-2025 Down Royal (IRE) Yielding DSQ 1:31.25 91.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-1.0 micro score
Trainer RTF 17% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 262 days Freshness caution
Micro score -1.0 trainer RTF cold at 17%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; freshness caution after 262 days off; headgear declared: b; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearb | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP8/1 OwnerCondron Concrete Ltd
Sire Acclamation Dam Positive Step Damsire Footstepsinthesand
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
HC1Recorded profile signal
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.7L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
29-09-2025 Down Royal (IRE) -- 0.3 Run faded
19-08-2025 Roscommon (IRE) 3 0.5 Neutral finish
04-08-2025 Naas (IRE) 11 1.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 4 earlier runs were unrated.
17-09-2024 | Punchestown (IRE)
Rating 60 OR Unrated
09-07-2025 | Fairyhouse (IRE)
Rating 72 OR Unrated
04-08-2025 | Naas (IRE)
Rating 63 OR Unrated
19-08-2025 | Roscommon (IRE)
Rating 72 OR Unrated
29-09-2025 | Down Royal (IRE)
Rating 67 OR 73
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:29.75 | 1:27.22 | 1:31.25

Last 3 trip positions: 6 | 2 | DSQ

Approx winning time1m 29.26s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
29-09-2025 Down Royal (IRE) | 7f | Yielding | -- -- 8/1 73 67 43 0.3 1:31.25 AMBER - competitive
19-08-2025 Roscommon (IRE) | 7½f | Good | -- 3 11/4 -- 72 54 0.5 1:33.57 GREY - below benchmark
04-08-2025 Naas (IRE) | 1m | Good To Yielding | -- 11 4/1 -- 63 53 1.2 1:44.24 GREY - below benchmark
09-07-2025 Fairyhouse (IRE) | 7f | Good | -- 2 5/1 -- 72 41 2.8 1:27.31 GOLD - faster than par
17-09-2024 Punchestown (IRE) | 7f | Good | -- 6 20/1 -- 60 50 3 1:30.02 GREEN - within 1% of par
Handicap Workable mark

+11lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 93 and winning TS par is around 61.7. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 2/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Faoladh Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 31.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Reposado Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 20.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Loingseoir Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 16.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Irish Rumour Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 12.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Buttermere Ridge Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Free Solo Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 9.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Phoenix Pairc Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Mickey The Steel Prominent
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 7.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Hexagonal Prominent
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 5.9
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Navagio Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 2.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Eichan San Late pressure closer
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 1.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Ardeur Front-runner
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Caffu Zafeen Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:50 | Leopardstown

6:50 | Leopardstown | 9f

0-60 | Good | 1878 At 3Arena Handicap (Div I)

Race Confidence 80 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexMedium
Average OR51.718 rated runners | Top OR 60: Shanlieve
Winning Time Par2m 01.51s3 race course/distance sample | approximate
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band 0-60
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos medium
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Limestone Red leads the contextual model at 41.9
  • Clearer top profile: +17.1 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 01.51s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race Handy racer in a likely tactical race. 9 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield7
Hold-up1
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Limestone RedRun style: ProminentFinish: Late-speed profile 74.0 8-4-1-5-2-4 9-4 7 OR 48 75 +27lb 8/1 -3.7 Layoff check Up in trip Weak field 59% 52% 4/6 96 E Well in +40 CAUTION PROFILE
Ella's GoldRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 46.8 2-12-2-2-10-7 9-3 8 OR 58 76 +18lb 11/4 +6.3 Quick return Big step up Weak field 58% 69% 1/6 96 D Well in +25 WATCH ONLY
Half NutzRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed 32.1 3-5-8-5-8-11 8-10 3 OR 40 68 +28lb 12/1 -11.7 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 59% 58% 4/6 97 D Well in +37 CAUTION PROFILE
RampageRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 16.8 7-6-8-13-7-11 9-10 9 OR 54 73 +19lb 11/1 +2.3 Freshened up Up in trip Weak field 62% 62% 1/6 97 B Well in +23 CAUTION PROFILE
ChipsrdownRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 15.8 3-2-11-5-3-15 9-11 5 OR 55 75 +20lb 7/2 +3.3 Quick return Up in trip Weak field 54% 60% 1/6 101 E Well in +26 CAUTION PROFILE
ShanlieveRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 13.2 15-17-7-7-8 10-2 11 OR 60 31 -29lb 33/1 +8.3 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 55% 0/6 86 E Well in +12 CAUTION PROFILE
LohengrinRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed 11.4 11-14-20-13-22 9-12 10 OR 56 56 +0lb 33/1 +4.3 Standard rest Trip move developing Weak field 54% 54% 2/6 84 E Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
William F BrowneRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 10.3 7-17-7-9-10 10-0 12 OR 58 107 +49lb 28/1 +6.3 Rest developing Big drop back Weak field 54% 52% 0/6 87 E Well in +49 CAUTION PROFILE
LustRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge 9.2 3-19-11-5-10-8 9-10 16 OR 54 73 +19lb 9/1 +2.3 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 61% 1/6 96 E Well in +19 WATCH ONLY
Max MeridiusRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 9.0 5-12-9-11-10-10 9-12 2 OR 56 97 +41lb 14/1 +4.3 Rest developing Big drop back Weak field 56% 58% 0/6 79 E Well in +41 CAUTION PROFILE
HielorayRun style: UnclearFinish: Sustained speed 8.5 2-6-8-9-13-9 9-0 4 OR 44 79 +35lb 17/2 -7.7 Long absence Up in trip Weak field 56% 64% 1/6 96 E Well in +36 CAUTION PROFILE
Genuine JimRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 6.2 13-22-19-7-9-6 9-11 14 OR 55 33 -22lb 20/1 +3.3 Standard rest Big step up Weak field 56% 59% 1/6 72 E Well in +29 CAUTION PROFILE
Pinball WizardRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 4.5 7-12-7-14-3-6 9-6 1 OR 50 59 +9lb 22/1 -1.7 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 59% 1/6 97 E Well in +30 CAUTION PROFILE
AkashaaRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 0.9 6-2-5-8-11-14 9-6 18 OR 50 79 +29lb 8/1 -1.7 Long absence Up in trip Weak field 58% 67% 1/6 95 D Well in +38 WATCH ONLY
Nephin MountainRun style: MidfieldFinish: Limited sectional edge 0.6 8-4-10-4-13-10 8-11 13 OR 52 45 -7lb 16/1 +0.3 Quick return Big step up Weak field 54% 60% 1/6 91 E Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
SmoothRun style: UnclearFinish: Limited sectional edge -1.8 8-9-7-11-13-7 9-0 6 OR 44 72 +28lb 22/1 -7.7 Standard rest Big drop back Weak field 56% 61% 0/6 94 E Well in +28 CAUTION PROFILE
Jewels LegacyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -3.8 10-6-9-9-13 8-7 17 OR 48 36 -12lb 50/1 -3.7 Standard rest Up in trip Weak field 56% 59% 0/6 93 E Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
Curious JaneRun style: MidfieldFinish: Sustained speed -5.7 11-12-12 8-8 15 OR 49 59 +10lb 33/1 -2.7 Freshened up Big step up Weak field 54% 53% 1/6 85 E Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Limestone Red

Limestone Red profiles as a prominent with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is E. Model alignment is 4/6. Handy racer in a likely tactical race

Main Danger Ella's Gold

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Limestone Red Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR75
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR+27lb ahead of mark
FFR 75 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
96 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
103.7% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score41.9raw
Agreement4/6
FFR75+27lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI ELOW
HandicapWell handicapped+40lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.6
Variance Very steady 3.5% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 7.4
Ceiling Par capable 3.2 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
8 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 20-03-2026
4 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 13-02-2026
1 Dundalk (AW) Strong run 13-01-2026
5 Dundalk (AW) Finished well 10-12-2025
2 Dundalk (AW) Solid effort 05-11-2025
4 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Finished well 19-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 8 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

26
20-03-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 8

Beat: Doctor Grace (IRE), Land Of The Giants (IRE), Thompson Gunner (IRE) | Doctor Grace (IRE) won next/later, Jawhary (GB) won next/later | Baila Conmigo (IRE) placed next/later, Storm Eric (IRE) placed next/later

13-02-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 4

Beat: Captain Ciano (IRE), Not Even Maybe (IRE), Yutori (GB) | Daonethatgotaway (GB) won next/later, Palazzo Persico (IRE) won next/later | Marians Gal (IRE) placed next/later

13-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Mythical Rock (IRE), Aingeal Dorcha (IRE), Master Garvey (IRE) | Aingeal Dorcha (IRE) won next/later, Mythical Rock (IRE) won next/later | Mapa (CAN) placed next/later, Master Garvey (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 59% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 44%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/6
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on all-weather ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 0P Peak rating 55
Good 6 0W / 0P Peak rating 66
Fast 4 0W / 1P Peak rating 67
All-weather 14 2W / 4P Peak rating 74
Placement evidence 52% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 24%
Class fit 25%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
FFR vs OR gives +40lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +40lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +40lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 48 | FFR 75 | Best FFR 88 | FFR edge +40
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Tracey Collins
Jockey Ronan Whelan
Age 6
Draw 7
OR 48
Avg OR 51.7
OR vs Field -3.7
Rating 59
TS 62
Form 25-148
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 10 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 103.7% Finished well
Today pace fit Positive today Positive today
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile3
DEIE
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
16-08-2024 Cork (IRE) Good To Firm 3 1:50.63 110.6
17-09-2024 Punchestown (IRE) Good 10 2:0.53 120.5
02-07-2025 Tipperary (IRE) Good To Firm 5 1:58.49 118.5
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.5 micro score
Trainer RTF -- Trainer recent-form data unavailable
Freshness 90 days Standard layoff
Micro score +0.5 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; headgear declared: p
Ground timing match 3/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | Declared equipment WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerMrs Caroline Hendron
Sire Cotai Glory Dam Kocna Damsire Aussie Rules
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Took keen hold - pressed leader - in touch with leaders after 3f - weakened inside final furlong(op 13/2 tchd 11/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
20-03-2026 Dundalk (AW) 8 1.2 Run faded
13-02-2026 Dundalk (AW) 4 1.2 Neutral finish
13-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
19-09-2025 | Dundalk (AW) (IRE)
Rating 62 OR 59
05-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 63 OR 59
10-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 62 OR 60
13-01-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 68 OR 59
13-02-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 62 OR 64
20-03-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 59 OR 64
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:50.63 | 2:0.53 | 1:58.49

Last 3 trip positions: 3 | 10 | 5

Approx winning time2m 01.51s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
20-03-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 8 6/1 64 59 35 1.2 2:18.97 GREY - below benchmark
13-02-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 4 9/2 64 62 26 1.2 2:19.32 GREY - below benchmark
13-01-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 1 5/1 59 68 62 0 2:16.33 GREY - below benchmark
10-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 5 5/2F 60 62 59 0.2 2:17.89 GREY - below benchmark
05-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 2 13/2 59 63 45 0.8 2:18.00 GREY - below benchmark
19-09-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) | 1m2½f | Standard | -- 4 5/1J 59 62 30 0.8 2:20.54 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+40lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.3 and winning TS par is around 67. Runner versus par: rating edge -16.3 | TS edge -5.0. Benchmark fit: -1.1.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Ella's Gold Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 46.8
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Interesting on score, but needs caution: distance evidence is thin.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement1/6
FFR76
Speed96
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+18lb ahead of mark
FFR 76 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
96 Par 100
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score24.8raw
Agreement1/6
FFR76+18lb vs OR
SpeedScore96Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapWell handicapped+25lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Edging forward

confidence nudge +1.8
Variance Very steady 3.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Below requirement -3.5 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Leopardstown (IRE) Solid effort 11-06-2026
12 Fairyhouse (IRE) Steady run 05-06-2026
2 Gowran Park Solid effort 20-10-2025
2 Naas (IRE) Solid effort 18-09-2025
10 Galway (IRE) Troubled run 01-08-2025
7 Roscommon (IRE) Competitive 19-05-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

13
11-06-2026 | Leopardstown (IRE) Finished 2

Beat: Nibras Rainbow (IRE), Roderick (GB), Staywitherjohnny (IRE) | Roderick (GB) placed next/later

05-06-2026 | Fairyhouse (IRE) Finished 12

Beat: Thegooseiscooked (IRE), Barretstown (IRE)

20-10-2025 | Gowran Park Finished 2

Beat: Bullet Bourbon (IRE), Balance Of Trade (IRE), Canon Law (IRE) | A Pretty Penny (IRE) won next/later, Imnotleavinyou (IRE) won next/later | Balance Of Trade (IRE) placed next/later, Believe Believe (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 58% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/6
Best similar rating43
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 4 0W / 3P Peak rating 56
Good 3 0W / 0P Peak rating 43
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 69% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 76%
FFR vs OR gives +25lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +25lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +25lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 58 | FFR 76 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge +25
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Matthew J Smith
Jockey Ben Coen
Age 3
Draw 8
OR 58
Avg OR 51.7
OR vs Field +6.3
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 022-02
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m1f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Soft 2 2:4.78 124.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
-0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 29% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 7 days Recent fitness window
Micro score -0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 29%; recent run fitness window; headgear declared: p; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
Headgearp | First-time aid today WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2F OwnerDebbie Kelly
Sire Galileo Gold Dam Coumlara Damsire High Chaparral
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 2.6L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) 2 0.5 Neutral finish
05-06-2026 Fairyhouse (IRE) 12 7 Neutral finish
20-10-2025 Gowran Park 2 0.3 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 1 of 2 runs with an official OR. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
19-05-2025 | Roscommon (IRE)
Rating 43 OR Unrated
01-08-2025 | Galway (IRE)
Rating 46 OR Unrated
18-09-2025 | Naas (IRE)
Rating 54 OR 51
20-10-2025 | Gowran Park
Rating 56 OR 56
05-06-2026 | Fairyhouse (IRE)
Rating -- OR 59
11-06-2026 | Leopardstown (IRE)
Rating -- OR 59
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:4.78

Last 3 trip positions: 2

Approx winning time2m 01.51s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-06-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) | 9f | Soft | -- 2 9/2F 59 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
05-06-2026 Fairyhouse (IRE) | 10f | Good | -- 12 8/1 59 -- -- 7 -- GREY - no timing read
20-10-2025 Gowran Park | 7f | Heavy | -- 2 4/1 56 56 56 0.3 1:34.78 GOLD - faster than par
18-09-2025 Naas (IRE) | 1m | Yielding To Soft | -- 2 25/1 51 54 38 1.5 1:48.18 GOLD - faster than par
01-08-2025 Galway (IRE) | 7f | Yielding | -- 10 200/1 -- 46 13 1.2 1:33.03 GOLD - faster than par
19-05-2025 Roscommon (IRE) | 7½f | Good | -- 7 25/1 -- 43 -- 1.5 1:35.25 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Well handicapped

+25lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 84.3 and winning TS par is around 67. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 1/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Half Nutz Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 32.1
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Rampage Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 16.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Chipsrdown Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 15.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Shanlieve Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 13.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lohengrin Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 11.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

William F Browne Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 10.3
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Lust Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Max Meridius Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 9.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Hieloray Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 8.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Genuine Jim Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 6.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Pinball Wizard Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.5
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Akashaa Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.9
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Nephin Mountain Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 0.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Smooth Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Jewels Legacy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Curious Jane Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

7:50 | Leopardstown

7:50 | Leopardstown | 13f

| Good | 1878 At 3Arena Maiden

Race Confidence 80 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNASlow-tempo positioning race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR801 rated runner | Top OR 80: Eniac
Winning Time Par2m 46.72s1 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Slow-tempo positioning race | chaos low
  • Slow tempo risk -- position may matter more than closing speed
  • Eniac leads the contextual model at 31.6
  • Clearer top profile: +8.5 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 2m 46.72s
Race shape Slow-tempo positioning race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 9 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders0
Prominent1
Midfield2
Hold-up0
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
EniacRun style: MidfieldFinish: Late-speed profile 68.0 9-4-5-3-9 9-8 1 OR 80 42 -38lb 13/2 0 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 52% 63% 3/6 94 E Ceiling +2 CAUTION PROFILE
Changing LanesRun style: ProminentFinish: No clear style 53.2 2-3 9-8 10 OR -- 83 -- 6/4 -- Freshened up Big step up Solid field 55% 56% 3/6 98 E Developing WATCH ONLY
ChairmanforlifeRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 3.6 4-6 9-8 7 OR -- 74 -- 14/1 -- Freshened up Same trip Solid field 48% 55% 1/6 98 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Parish TeamRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.2 8 9-8 9 OR -- 44 -- 22/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 51% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
SakokuRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.2 9 9-3 12 OR -- 67 -- 11/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 48% 0/6 91 E Developing WATCH ONLY
KashalaRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 4 9-3 6 OR -- 68 -- 10/3 -- Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 48% 51% 0/6 -- E Developing WATCH ONLY
Quick ReturnRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-8 2 OR -- -- -- 40/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Stormy DaysRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-8 11 OR -- -- -- 28/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
PhloxRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 3.0 -- 9-3 8 OR -- -- -- 18/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Echo InfernoRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 5-10 9-8 4 OR -- 80 -- 6/1 -- Standard rest Big step up Solid field 48% 49% 0/6 97 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Essential ComedyRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style 2.0 -- 9-3 3 OR -- -- -- 25/1 -- Rest developing Trip move developing Solid field 50% 53% 0/6 -- UNKNOWN Developing WATCH ONLY
Solar JetRun style: UnclearFinish: No clear style -0.5 13 9-8 5 OR -- 60 -- 60/1 -- Freshened up Big step up Solid field 48% 52% 0/6 86 E Developing CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Eniac

Eniac profiles as a midfield with a stable trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is E. Model alignment is 3/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Changing Lanes

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Eniac Midfield
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 68.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR42
Speed94
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-38lb below mark
FFR 42 pounds scale
SpeedScorebelow par
94 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
105.2% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score31.6raw
Agreement3/6
FFR42-38lb vs OR
SpeedScore94Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+2lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge +1.9
Variance Very steady 4.3% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 4.7
Ceiling Below requirement -4.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Down Royal (IRE) Competitive 29-05-2026
4 Leopardstown Troubled run 10-05-2026
5 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 10-04-2026
3 Leopardstown Finished well 18-10-2025
9 Naas (IRE) Run faded 18-09-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

10
29-05-2026 | Down Royal (IRE) Finished 9

Beat: Grey Intentions (IRE), Misty Cove (IRE), Sutton Hoo (IRE) | Lord Aus (IRE) won next/later | Rapide Vega (IRE) placed next/later

10-05-2026 | Leopardstown Finished 4

Beat: Chestnut Palace (IRE), Servare (USA), Dreoilin (IRE)

10-04-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 5

Beat: Amrum (GB), Concaire (IRE), Scientific (IRE) | Amrum (GB) won next/later, County Carlow (IRE) won next/later | Concaire (IRE) placed next/later, Golddream (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 52% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 64%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Class Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good Proven on today's ground band
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs2/5
Best similar rating78
Best ground bandTesting
Read Proven on today's ground band Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 2 0W / 1P Peak rating 72
Good 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 78
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 66
Placement evidence 63% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 84%
Mark room 58%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 68%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueTrip evidence still asks questions
Mark read FFR vs OR: +2lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +2lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 80 | FFR 42 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +2
Hidden Run DetectorWorth a second look
  • Run 2: traffic trouble may have hidden the finishing position.
Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Donnacha Aidan O'Brien
Jockey Gavin Ryan
Age 3
Draw 1
OR 80
Avg OR 80
OR vs Field 0
Rating 66
TS 59
Form 93-549
Run Style Midfield
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 1 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 1/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m4f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
10-05-2026 Leopardstown (IRE) Good 4 2:39.67 159.7
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 50% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 20 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/4F OwnerFlaxman Stables Ireland Ltd
Sire Siyouni Dam Phaenomena Damsire Galileo
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Beaten favouriteMarket expected more last time
Race comment

Midfield - some headway over 1f out - no extra inside final furlong(op 9/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.2L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
29-05-2026 Down Royal (IRE) 9 0.3 Neutral finish
10-05-2026 Leopardstown 4 0.8 Fast finish
10-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) 5 2.5 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
18-09-2025 | Naas (IRE)
Rating 57 OR Unrated
18-10-2025 | Leopardstown
Rating 72 OR Unrated
10-04-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 66 OR Unrated
10-05-2026 | Leopardstown
Rating 78 OR 78
29-05-2026 | Down Royal (IRE)
Rating -- OR 80
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:39.67

Last 3 trip positions: 4

Approx winning time2m 46.72s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
29-05-2026 Down Royal (IRE) | 10.5f | Good | -- 9 11/4F 80 -- -- 0.3 -- GREY - no timing read
10-05-2026 Leopardstown | 1m4f | Good | -- 4 4/1 78 78 52 0.8 2:39.67 GOLD - faster than par
10-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 5 4/1 -- 66 59 2.5 1:41.67 GOLD - faster than par
18-10-2025 Leopardstown | 1m | Yielding | -- 3 16/1 -- 72 66 2.5 1:45.49 GOLD - faster than par
18-09-2025 Naas (IRE) | 7f | Yielding To Soft | -- 9 10/1 -- 57 -- 1.8 1:36.30 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Near ceiling

+2lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 48 and winning TS par is around 45. Runner versus par: rating edge +18.0 | TS edge +14.0. Benchmark fit: 2.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Changing Lanes Tactical pace presser
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 53.2
WATCH ONLY
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status WATCH ONLY
Agreement3/6
FFR83
Speed98
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs ORperformance rating
FFR 83 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
Best reasonNeeds more evidence before treating as a betting profile Main riskDistance suitability is a caution (DEI E)
Model Score23.1raw
Agreement3/6
FFR83pounds rating
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI EVERY_LOW
HandicapEvidence developing--
Predictive edge Small caution nudge

Developing; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Below requirement; Stable

confidence nudge -0.8
Variance Developing Consistency developing
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Below requirement -1.8 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Roscommon Run faded 18-05-2026
3 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 23-04-2026
Franked form Positive form

Positive form | 0 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

5
18-05-2026 | Roscommon Finished 2

Beat: Noble Honour (IRE), Karrygrant (IRE), Avec Grand Plaisir (FR) | Avec Grand Plaisir (FR) placed next/later, Noble Honour (IRE) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 3

Beat: Druids Glen (IRE), Bell Ex Too (IRE), Mendez (USA) | Bay Of Stars (GB) placed next/later, I Hope You Dance (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 55% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 38%
Class 64%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 50%
Best fit Pace shape Question Trip / ground
Ground evidence Good No recent good sample; best evidence is on testing ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs0/2
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read No recent good sample; best evidence is on testing ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 85
Good 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 56% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 38%
Class fit 84%
Mark room 50%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 42%
Class benchmark supports the placementTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalTrip evidence still asks questionsOfficial-mark evidence incompleteRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read Mark edge unavailable Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Evidence developing --

There is not enough official-mark evidence to make a firm handicap judgement.

Today's OR Unrated | FFR 83 | Best FFR 83 | FFR edge --
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien
Jockey J M Sheridan
Age 3
Draw 10
OR Unrated
Avg OR 80
OR vs Field --
Rating 69
TS 62
Form 32
Run Style Prominent
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m4f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m4f
Runs at profile1
DEIE
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
23-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 3 2:36.93 156.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 53% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 31 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP9/2 OwnerAtlantic Thoroughbreds
Sire Galiway Dam Red Line Damsire Sageburg
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent - switched left and pressed leaders over 1f out - no extra inside final 110yds(tchd 17/2)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
0/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
18-05-2026 Roscommon 2 0.3 Neutral finish
23-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) 3 1.2 Neutral finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
23-04-2026 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 69 OR Unrated
18-05-2026 | Roscommon
Rating 85 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:36.93

Last 3 trip positions: 3

Approx winning time2m 46.72s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
18-05-2026 Roscommon | 1m2½f | Good To Yielding | -- 2 9/2 -- 85 50 0.3 2:18.20 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Dundalk (AW) | 1m4f | Standard | -- 3 8/1 -- 69 62 1.2 2:36.93 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Evidence developing

--.

Benchmark Fit score 3

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 48 and winning TS par is around 45. Runner versus par: rating edge +21.0 | TS edge +17.0. Benchmark fit: 2.8.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Chairmanforlife Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Parish Team Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Sakoku Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.2
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Kashala Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Quick Return Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Stormy Days Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Phlox Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 3.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Echo Inferno Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Essential Comedy Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 2.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Solar Jet Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence --
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:20 | Leopardstown

6:20 | Leopardstown | 8f

| Good | BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Rated Race

Race Confidence 79 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNAControlled tactical race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR81.49 rated runners | Top OR 88: God Of Power
Winning Time Par1m 40.98s3 race course/distance/going sample
Race SetupGOODStalls -- | Rail No rail note | Band --
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Controlled tactical race | chaos low
  • Likely lone-leader / tactical-control setup
  • God Of Power leads the contextual model at 59.6
  • Clearer top profile: +7.9 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 1m 40.98s
Race shape Controlled tactical race Possible lone-leader setup. 1 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders1
Prominent0
Midfield4
Hold-up3
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
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Compare
God Of PowerRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Balanced 74.0 2-1-9-4 9-12 2 OR 88 77 -11lb 9/2 +6.6 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 56% 57% 4/6 101 D Stiff -1 CAUTION PROFILE
Sir BenjiRun style: CloserFinish: No clear style 61.2 3-1 9-10 6 OR 86 80 -6lb 13/2 +4.6 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 56% 56% 4/6 99 D Ceiling +4 PRICE DEPENDENT
Shaftesbury AvenueRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 39.0 6-1-3 9-10 4 OR 86 69 -17lb 7/2 +4.6 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 54% 57% 2/6 88 C Ceiling +0 CAUTION PROFILE
Johnny SodaRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 29.0 7-5-1-3-12-2 9-0 1 OR 76 46 -30lb 11/1 -5.4 Standard rest Big drop back Solid field 60% 58% 3/6 97 C Workable +11 CAUTION PROFILE
KrasimirRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 24.7 2-3-2-3 9-7 5 OR 83 72 -11lb 6/1 +1.6 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 56% 62% 2/6 98 D Workable +7 CAUTION PROFILE
Red AutumnRun style: CloserFinish: Late-speed profile 23.8 4-4-5-2-5-1 9-5 3 OR 81 58 -23lb 8/1 -0.4 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 57% 59% 3/6 97 C Ceiling +2 CAUTION PROFILE
Glitter And GloryRun style: MidfieldFinish: Balanced 23.4 5-1-2-3-3-30 8-13 9 OR 74 86 +12lb 8/1 -7.4 Standard rest Up in trip Solid field 57% 59% 1/6 103 D Well in +12 CAUTION PROFILE
GolddreamRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 22.8 3-1-6 9-4 7 OR 80 73 -7lb 4/1 -1.4 Freshened up Same trip Solid field 52% 54% 2/6 93 D Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Halon BayRun style: MidfieldFinish: No clear style 18.4 1-4-8 9-3 8 OR 79 85 +6lb 8/1 -2.4 Freshened up Up in trip Solid field 51% 54% 0/6 98 E Workable +6 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit God Of Power

God Of Power profiles as a front-runner with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is D. Model alignment is 4/6. Possible lone-leader setup

Main Danger Sir Benji

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
God Of Power Front-end controller
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 74.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR77
Speed101
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-11lb below mark
FFR 77 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
101 Par 100
FSP%faded late
96.6% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskDistance evidence is thin
Model Score59.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR77-11lb vs OR
SpeedScore101Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI DLOW
HandicapMark looks stiff-1lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +3.0
Variance Very steady 4% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 5.2
Ceiling Par capable 4.4 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
2 Listowel (IRE) Solid effort 31-05-2026
1 Limerick Strong run 25-04-2026
9 Dundalk (AW) Run faded 05-12-2025
4 Dundalk (AW) Competitive 21-11-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 2 subsequent winner(s), 5 subsequent placer(s)

13
31-05-2026 | Listowel (IRE) Finished 2

Beat: Thread Of Gold (IRE), Satoyama (GER), Sursum Corda (IRE) | Tim Toe (IRE) placed next/later

25-04-2026 | Limerick Finished 1

Beat: Dark Leader (IRE), Zenford (IRE), Big Cypress (GB) | Oro Blanco (IRE) won next/later | Absoluteassignment (IRE) placed next/later, Big Cypress (GB) placed next/later

05-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW) Finished 9

Beat: Tariff (IRE), Sea Of Dubka (IRE), Swift Charm (IRE) | Fallacy (USA) won next/later | Abbotsford (GB) placed next/later, Lonely Island (FR) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 51%
Pace shape 90%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 36%
Best fit Pace shape Question Handicap
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/4
Best similar rating--
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 91
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating --
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 2 0W / 0P Peak rating 78
Placement evidence 57% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 44%
Class fit 49%
Mark room 49%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 76%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent evidence contains a positive run clueRecent form includes a win/place signalNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: -1lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Mark looks stiff -1lb FFR vs OR

Recorded peak evidence does not currently show an obvious ratings advantage.

Today's OR 88 | FFR 77 | Best FFR 87 | FFR edge -1
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Andrew Slattery
Jockey Andrew Slattery
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 88
Avg OR 81.4
OR vs Field +6.6
Rating 91
TS 84
Form 49-12
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Not recorded Timing evidence developing No final-2f timing
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Exact distance profile
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance1m
Runs at profile3
DEID
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
21-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 4 1:38.77 98.8
05-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Standard 9 1:41.32 101.3
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) Good 2 1:43.02 103
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 46% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 18 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/2 OwnerDamien Moore
Sire Lope De Vega Dam Sharqawiyah Damsire Dubawi
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Prominent - went second halfway - led 2f out - soon clear with one other - ridden and kept on final 110yds(op 11/10)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) 2 0.5 Neutral finish
25-04-2026 Limerick 1 0 Fast finish
05-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) 9 1 Run faded
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
21-11-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 78 OR Unrated
05-12-2025 | Dundalk (AW)
Rating 44 OR Unrated
25-04-2026 | Limerick
Rating 91 OR Unrated
31-05-2026 | Listowel (IRE)
Rating -- OR 80
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 1:38.77 | 1:41.32 | 1:43.02

Last 3 trip positions: 4 | 9 | 2

Approx winning time1m 40.98s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
31-05-2026 Listowel (IRE) | 8f | Good | -- 2 7/2 80 -- -- 0.5 -- GREY - no timing read
25-04-2026 Limerick | 7f | Yielding | -- 1 9/4 -- 91 84 0 1:36.44 GOLD - faster than par
05-12-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 9 6/4F -- 44 36 1 1:41.32 GREEN - within 1% of par
21-11-2025 Dundalk (AW) | 1m | Standard | -- 4 9/2 -- 78 66 0.5 1:38.77 GOLD - faster than par
Handicap Mark looks stiff

-1lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 92.3 and winning TS par is around 83.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -1.3 | TS edge +0.7. Benchmark fit: 0.3.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sir Benji Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 61.2
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement4/6
FFR80
Speed99
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-6lb below mark
FFR 80 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
99 Par 100
Best reasonUseful evidence, but needs price and race-shape confirmation Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score51.6raw
Agreement4/6
FFR80-6lb vs OR
SpeedScore99Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI DVERY_LOW
HandicapNear ceiling+4lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Developing; No bounce signal; No hidden upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +0.2
Variance Developing Consistency developing
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run No hidden upgrade Upgrade 0
Ceiling Par capable 5.1 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Roscommon Run faded 11-05-2026
1 Navan Finished well 30-03-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 2 subsequent placer(s)

8
11-05-2026 | Roscommon Finished 3

Beat: Rebel Ascendant (GB), Elzaam Express (IRE)

30-03-2026 | Navan Finished 1

Beat: Forty Six A (IRE), Karrygrant (IRE), Trojan Fighter (GB) | Lord Aus (IRE) won next/later, Sweet Baby Zou (GB) won next/later | Karrygrant (IRE) placed next/later, Maxminelli (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 56% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 52%
Class 53%
Pace shape 65%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 58%
Best fit Pace shape Question Track / draw
Ground evidence Good Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayGood
Similar-ground runs1/2
Best similar rating84
Best ground bandTesting
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today Good
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 1W / 1P Peak rating 89
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 84
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Placement evidence 56% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 52%
Class fit 47%
Mark room 64%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Trainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +4lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Near ceiling +4lb FFR vs OR

The horse may need to reproduce a strong effort to stay ahead of today's mark.

Today's OR 86 | FFR 80 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +4
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Gavin Cromwell
Jockey Robert Whearty
Age 3
Draw 6
OR 86
Avg OR 81.4
OR vs Field +4.6
Rating 89
TS 87
Form 13
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit No clear style
Evidence Recent finish evidence only
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 1m2f
No clear timing trend yet; use this as supporting evidence.
Profile distance1m2f
Runs at profile1
DEID
ReliabilityVERY_LOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
30-03-2026 Navan (IRE) Heavy 1 2:20.80 140.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 42% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 38 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window
Ground timing match 0/1 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP5/1 OwnerBrendan Rogers
Sire Sottsass Dam Boundless Joy Damsire Montjeu
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
No headline flagNo course, distance or beaten-favourite flag recorded
Race comment

Took keen hold - held up in rear - ran green when headway towards near side 3f out - ridden to lead inside final furlong - kept on well(op 20/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.8L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
11-05-2026 Roscommon 3 3.5 Fast finish
30-03-2026 Navan 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
No previous official OR is available for a ratings comparison yet. 2 earlier runs were unrated.
30-03-2026 | Navan
Rating 89 OR Unrated
11-05-2026 | Roscommon
Rating 84 OR Unrated
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip1 Trip experience building ReliabilityVERY_LOW

Last 3 trip times: 2:20.80

Last 3 trip positions: 1

Approx winning time1m 40.98s
Last win at tripNo exact-distance win found in stored history
Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
11-05-2026 Roscommon | 1m2½f | Good | -- 3 5/1 -- 84 25 3.5 2:17.94 GREY - below benchmark
30-03-2026 Navan | 1m2f | Heavy | -- 1 14/1 -- 89 87 0 2:20.80 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Near ceiling

+4lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 92.3 and winning TS par is around 83.3. Runner versus par: rating edge -3.3 | TS edge +3.7. Benchmark fit: 0.6.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Shaftesbury Avenue Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 39.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Johnny Soda Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 29.0
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Krasimir Context profile
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 24.7
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Red Autumn Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 23.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Glitter And Glory Midfield
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 23.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Golddream Midfield
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 22.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Halon Bay Midfield
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 18.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

6:30 | Southwell (AW)

6:30 | Southwell (AW) | 5f

Class 5 | Standard | Ladies Day Sunday 16th August Fillies' Handicap

Race Confidence 78 SHORTLIST RACE
Race DNABalanced context race
Chaos IndexLow
Average OR63.28 rated runners | Top OR 68: La Belle Forest
Winning Time Par58.41s56 race class/course/distance/going sample
Race SetupTAPETA: STANDARDStalls 5f - Centre; Remainder - Inside | Rail No rail note | Band 0-70
Primary ActionSHORTLIST RACE
Race Snapshot

What the model sees

  • Balanced context race | chaos low
  • Balanced pace map -- combined context matters
  • Life After Love leads the contextual model at 49.8
  • Clearer top profile: +10.4 gap to nearest rival
  • Winning-time par: 58.41s
Race shape Balanced context race No obvious tactical edge from race shape. 4 runner(s) have unclear run-style evidence.
Leaders2
Prominent0
Midfield0
Hold-up2
Race Scan + Compare Whole-field view before the deep dive
Tick runners to compare side by side, then open the full evidence below.
Select two or more runners to compare
Compare
Life After LoveRun style: CloserFinish: Balanced 84.8 3-1-1-4-2-1 9-8 5 OR 67 78 +11lb 12/5 +3.8 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 71% 67% 4/6 98 A+ Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
Sarafina MshairiRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 81.4 9-1-5-3-2-5 9-12 4 OR 65 73 +8lb 15/2 +1.8 Freshened up Same trip Modest field 66% 72% 3/6 102 A Well in +20 PRICE DEPENDENT
La Belle ForestRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 61.2 6-7-1-3-5 9-9 2 OR 68 50 -18lb 13/2 +4.8 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 62% 62% 3/6 100 C Well in +22 CAUTION PROFILE
J StreetRun style: CloserFinish: Sustained speed 44.4 5-3-6-8-2-12 9-12 6 OR 65 68 +3lb 10/3 +1.8 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 65% 69% 3/6 104 C Well in +21 CAUTION PROFILE
StartlingRun style: UnclearFinish: Late-speed profile 28.0 3-8-6-1-2 9-7 1 OR 60 71 +11lb 10/1 -3.2 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 66% 69% 3/6 98 A Well in +20 WATCH ONLY
TorfridaRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 13.5 7-6-2-9-4 9-7 8 OR 60 69 +9lb 9/1 -3.2 Long absence Same trip Modest field 58% 66% 1/6 95 D Well in +19 WATCH ONLY
Fantasy ObsessorRun style: Front-runnerFinish: Sustained speed 9.6 2-2-11-5-9-9 9-12 3 OR 65 79 +14lb 3/1 +1.8 Standard rest Same trip Modest field 53% 57% 2/6 105 D Well in +15 CAUTION PROFILE
Solid BondRun style: UnclearFinish: Balanced 4.8 8-11-7-10-5-9 9-3 7 OR 56 47 -9lb 16/1 -7.2 Standard rest Down in trip Modest field 56% 59% 0/6 104 E Well in +25 CAUTION PROFILE
Main Context Fit Life After Love

Life After Love profiles as a closer with a stable / positive signs trajectory. Distance intelligence grade is A+. Model alignment is 4/6. No obvious tactical edge from race shape

Main Danger Sarafina Mshairi

Nearest contextual rival.

View full racecard intelligence
Life After Love Closer
Model agreement 4/6
Strong agreement
Decision Confidence 84.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement4/6
FFR78
Speed98
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+11lb ahead of mark
FFR 78 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
98 Par 100
FSP%even finish
100% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score49.8raw
Agreement4/6
FFR78+11lb vs OR
SpeedScore98Solid figure
Trip / GroundDEI A+MEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+15lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Small positive nudge

Reliable; No bounce signal; Possible upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +1.8
Variance Reliable 5.2% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Possible upgrade Upgrade 3.2
Ceiling Par capable 2.9 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
3 Lingfield Run faded 18-05-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 23-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 26-03-2026
4 Kempton (AW) Troubled run 02-03-2026
2 Lingfield (AW) Finished well 25-02-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 07-02-2026
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 1 subsequent winner(s), 4 subsequent placer(s)

6
18-05-2026 | Lingfield Finished 3

Beat: Solar Invincible (IRE), Bessie Wallis (IRE), Yes Waliim (IRE) | Solar Invincible (IRE) placed next/later

23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Believeinmenow (IRE), Blue Deveron (GB), Sands Of Seve (GB) | Believeinmenow (IRE) placed next/later

26-03-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Jane Of The Jungle (IRE), Enter Sandman (IRE), Bold Return (IRE) | Enter Sandman (IRE) won next/later | Jane Of The Jungle (IRE) placed next/later, Mademoiselle Belle (IRE) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 71% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 96%
Class 45%
Pace shape 75%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs5/6
Best similar rating66
Best ground bandGood
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 1P Peak rating 63
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 9 3W / 4P Peak rating 66
Placement evidence 67% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 94%
Class fit 26%
Mark room 97%
Stable setup 76%
Recent evidence 42%
Proven trip profile (A+)5 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +15lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +15lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +15lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 67 | FFR 78 | Best FFR 82 | FFR edge +15
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Ollie Sangster
Jockey Jason Watson
Age 3
Draw 5
OR 67
Avg OR 63.2
OR vs Field +3.8
Rating 66
TS 60
Form 124113
Run Style Closer
Pace & Finish Fit Balanced
Evidence 4 runs | MEDIUM confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotBalanced finishing profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Balanced Steady
FSP% last 3 100.0% Evenly paced
Today pace fit Neutral Neutral
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 25.05s recorded | FSP 100.0%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 5f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile5
DEIA+
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 0:58.17 58.2
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 0:59.85 59.9
18-05-2026 Lingfield Good 3 0:58.16 58.2
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 26% Yard has been quiet recently
Freshness 31 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 trainer RTF quiet at 26%; recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP7/1 OwnerThe Chriselliam Partnership
Sire Palace Pier Dam Love On The Rocks Damsire Exceed And Excel
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Pressed leader - led over 2f out - hung left over 1f out - kept on inside final furlong(op 2/1)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 0.1L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
18-05-2026 Lingfield 3 0.3 Neutral finish
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 4 of 6 runs with an official OR.
07-02-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 59 OR 55
25-02-2026 | Lingfield (AW)
Rating 59 OR 58
02-03-2026 | Kempton (AW)
Rating 54 OR 58
26-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 65 OR 60
23-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 66 OR 64
18-05-2026 | Lingfield
Rating 63 OR 68
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip5 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 0:58.17 | 0:59.85 | 0:58.16

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 1 | 3

Approx winning time58.41s
Last win at trip0:59.85 | Southwell (AW) | 23-04-2026

Last distance win context: vs par +1.44s | OR 64 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
18-05-2026 Lingfield | 5f | Good | Class 5 3 7/1 68 63 55 0.3 0:58.16 GOLD - faster than par
23-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 5 1 6/5F 64 66 28 0 0:59.85 AMBER - competitive
26-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 1 3/1 60 65 60 0 0:58.17 GOLD - faster than par
02-03-2026 Kempton (AW) | 6f | Standard To Slow | Class 6 4 7/2 58 54 34 1.2 1:14.21 GREY - below benchmark
25-02-2026 Lingfield (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 2 3/1 58 59 51 0.3 0:58.64 GREEN - within 1% of par
07-02-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 6 1 100/30 55 59 39 0 1:00.49 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+15lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score -1

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.1 and winning TS par is around 56.9. Runner versus par: rating edge -12.1 | TS edge +3.1. Benchmark fit: -1.

Model agreement 4/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
Sarafina Mshairi Distance specialist
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 81.4
PRICE DEPENDENT
Decision read Shortlist profile with useful evidence, but still check price and race shape.
Status PRICE DEPENDENT
Agreement3/6
FFR73
Speed102
ConditionsPositive fit
PlacementPositive setup
FFR vs OR+8lb ahead of mark
FFR 73 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
102 Par 100
FSP%finished strongly
110.1% 100% par
Best reasonRecent form and class support, but not a full-stake profile Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score36.8raw
Agreement3/6
FFR73+8lb vs OR
SpeedScore102Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI AMEDIUM
HandicapWell handicapped+20lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; Mild bounce watch; Hidden upgrade; Par capable; Edging forward

confidence nudge +3.4
Variance Very steady 4.8% volatility
Bounce Mild bounce watch Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Hidden upgrade Upgrade 6.7
Ceiling Par capable 1.7 vs par
Curve Edging forward Trend 1
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
9 Windsor Competitive 18-05-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 07-10-2025
5 Chester Finished well 12-09-2025
3 Newmarket (July) Finished well 15-08-2025
2 Windsor Run faded 26-07-2025
5 Newbury Run faded 03-07-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 4 subsequent winner(s), 6 subsequent placer(s)

16
18-05-2026 | Windsor Finished 9

Beat: General Assembly (IRE) | Jax Edge (GB) won next/later | Al Barez (GB) placed next/later, Lequinto (IRE) placed next/later

07-10-2025 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: After Love (IRE), Addarella (IRE), Unico (GB) | Addarella (IRE) won next/later | After Love (IRE) placed next/later, Unico (GB) placed next/later

12-09-2025 | Chester Finished 5

Beat: Twirler (GB), Winter Crown (GB), Hallowed Time (IRE) | Twirler (GB) won next/later, Winter Crown (GB) won next/later | Count dOrsay (IRE) placed next/later, Giant (GB) placed next/later

Today's conditions match 66% Positive conditions match
Trip / ground 90%
Class 50%
Pace shape 50%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Trip / ground Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Some positive evidence on today's ground
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs1/6
Best similar rating69
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Some positive evidence on today's ground Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 66
Fast 3 0W / 1P Peak rating 67
All-weather 6 2W / 4P Peak rating 69
Placement evidence 72% Positive placement clues
Trip evidence 88%
Class fit 50%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 66%
Recent evidence 58%
Proven trip profile (A)6 similar-trip runs recordedFFR vs OR gives +20lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedNo major placement caution from stored evidence
Mark read FFR vs OR: +20lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +20lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 65 | FFR 73 | Best FFR 85 | FFR edge +20
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Edward Smyth-Osbourne
Jockey Harry Vigors(7)
Age 4
Draw 4
OR 65
Avg OR 63.2
OR vs Field +1.8
Rating No rating yet
TS --
Form 2351-9
Run Style Unclear
Pace & Finish Fit Late-speed profile
Evidence 11 runs | HIGH confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotLate-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Late-speed profile Strong
FSP% last 3 110.1% Strong finish
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Very fast finish Strong finish 25.16s recorded | FSP 110.1%
Evidence 3/3+ FSP evidence Last-three sectional pattern available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 5f
Latest matched-distance time is the best of the recent timed set.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile6
DEIA
ReliabilityMEDIUM
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
24-02-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) Standard 1 1:1.93 61.9
03-07-2025 Newbury Good To Firm 5 1:1.38 61.4
18-05-2026 Windsor Good 9 0:59.93 59.9
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.2 micro score
Trainer RTF 40% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 31 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.2 recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 1/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP11/1 OwnerRectory Farm Racing Partnership
Sire Cable Bay Dam Sarabi Mshairi Damsire Poet's Voice
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course winHas won at this courseDistance winHas won at this trip
Race comment

No recent race comment available.

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
2/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.5L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
18-05-2026 Windsor 9 2.2 Neutral finish
07-10-2025 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
12-09-2025 Chester 5 2.2 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 3 of 6 runs with an official OR.
03-07-2025 | Newbury
Rating 60 OR 62
26-07-2025 | Windsor
Rating 66 OR 61
15-08-2025 | Newmarket (July)
Rating 67 OR 63
12-09-2025 | Chester
Rating 59 OR 64
07-10-2025 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 69 OR 63
18-05-2026 | Windsor
Rating 46 OR 67
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip6 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityMEDIUM

Last 3 trip times: 1:1.93 | 1:1.38 | 0:59.93

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 5 | 9

Approx winning time58.41s
Last win at trip1:1.93 | Wolverhampton (AW) | 24-02-2025

Last distance win context: vs par +3.52s | OR 58 | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
18-05-2026 Windsor | 5f | Good | Class 5 9 11/1 67 46 29 2.2 0:59.93 GREY - below benchmark
07-10-2025 Southwell (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 1 7/1 63 69 2 0 1:16.89 GREY - below benchmark
12-09-2025 Chester | 6f | Good | Class 5 5 7/2 64 59 24 2.2 1:16.50 GREY - below benchmark
15-08-2025 Newmarket (July) | 6f | Good To Firm | Class 5 3 5/2F 63 67 50 0.1 1:12.76 GREY - below benchmark
26-07-2025 Windsor | 6f | Good | Class 5 2 15/8F 61 66 43 0.5 1:12.26 GREY - below benchmark
03-07-2025 Newbury | 5f | Good To Firm | Class 5 5 13/2 62 60 54 0.5 1:1.49 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+20lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.1 and winning TS par is around 56.9. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
La Belle Forest Front-runner
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 61.2
CAUTION PROFILE
Decision read Watchable profile with some support, best used as part of the wider race read.
Status CAUTION PROFILE
Agreement3/6
FFR50
Speed100
ConditionsMixed fit
PlacementMixed setup
FFR vs OR-18lb below mark
FFR 50 pounds scale
SpeedScorearound par
1 Par 100
FSP%even finish
101.9% 100% par
Best reasonInteresting numbers, but current evidence contains a clear warning Main riskNo exact-distance profile; nearest-trip evidence used
Model Score39.3raw
Agreement3/6
FFR50-18lb vs OR
SpeedScore100Fast figure
Trip / GroundDEI CLOW
HandicapWell handicapped+22lb FFR vs OR
Predictive edge Predictive support

Very steady; No bounce signal; Minor upgrade; Par capable; Stable

confidence nudge +2.2
Variance Very steady 4.7% volatility
Bounce No bounce signal Recent big figure regression check
Hidden Run Minor upgrade Upgrade 2
Ceiling Par capable 2.5 vs par
Curve Stable Trend 0
Context match Conditions, placement, handicap and recent form
Last 6 Finishing Positions Most recent first | 1 = win | 2-3 = placed | open the full table for detail
6 Ffos Las Competitive 04-06-2026
7 Southwell (AW) Run faded 09-04-2026
1 Southwell (AW) Strong run 13-03-2026
3 Wolverhampton (AW) Solid effort 08-11-2025
5 York Run faded 10-10-2025
Franked form Strongly franked

Strongly franked | 3 subsequent winner(s), 3 subsequent placer(s)

10
04-06-2026 | Ffos Las Finished 6

Beat: Tie Fighter (IRE), Arishka's Dream (GB) | Carefree Dream (GB) placed next/later

09-04-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 7

Beat: Queensmaite (GB) | Alfa Duplicate (IRE) won next/later, Naanas Shadow (IRE) won next/later | Artista (IRE) placed next/later, Call Margot (IRE) placed next/later

13-03-2026 | Southwell (AW) Finished 1

Beat: Von Trotter (GB), Skip To Victory (GB), Whiskey Kisses (IRE) | Tickettothestars (IRE) won next/later

Today's conditions match 62% Mixed conditions match
Trip / ground 66%
Class 50%
Pace shape 55%
Track / draw 50%
Handicap 90%
Best fit Handicap Question Class
Ground evidence All-weather Proven on today's ground band
TodayStandard
Similar-ground runs3/5
Best similar rating73
Best ground bandAll-weather
Read Proven on today's ground band Today All-weather
Ground record by surface Runs, wins, places and peak rating by ground band
Testing 1 0W / 0P Peak rating --
Good 1 0W / 0P Peak rating 63
Fast 0 0W / 0P Peak rating --
All-weather 3 1W / 2P Peak rating 73
Placement evidence 62% Neutral placement read
Trip evidence 58%
Class fit 39%
Mark room 100%
Stable setup 68%
Recent evidence 42%
FFR vs OR gives +22lb roomTrainer and jockey setup recordedRecent form includes a win/place signalClass benchmark is a concernRecent evidence contains a fade/no-extra clue
Mark read FFR vs OR: +22lb Evidence Observable only
Handicap Opportunity Well handicapped +22lb FFR vs OR

Our pounds-style FFR evidence suggests today's official mark may leave useful room for improvement.

Today's OR 68 | FFR 50 | Best FFR 90 | FFR edge +22
Hidden Run DetectorNo hidden run flagged

No recent performance currently meets the ForeFurlongs hidden-effort checks.

Technical evidence Sectionals, timing, ratings trend and full run table
Trainer Archie Watson
Jockey Edward Greatrex
Age 3
Draw 2
OR 68
Avg OR 63.2
OR vs Field +4.8
Rating 52
TS 59
Form 53-176
Run Style Front-runner
Pace & Finish Fit Sustained speed
Evidence 2 runs | LOW confidence
Pace & Finish SnapshotSustained-speed profile
Visual first | technical detail below
Finish profile Sustained speed Strong
FSP% Sectionals developing Needs 3 recorded FSP runs
Today pace fit Small positive Small positive
Final 2f Around par finish Evenly paced 23.91s recorded | FSP 101.9%
Evidence 2/3 FSP runs recorded FSP read hidden until three recorded runs are available.
Distance Timing Evidence Nearest profile 5f
Latest matched-distance time is slower than the earlier timed sample.
Profile distance5f
Runs at profile3
DEIC
ReliabilityLOW
DateCourseGoingPosTimeSecs
13-03-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 1 0:57.60 57.6
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) Standard 7 0:58.64 58.6
04-06-2026 Ffos Las Good To Soft 6 1:1.81 61.8
Extra Intelligence Trainer, equipment, freshness and background clues
+0.8 micro score
Trainer RTF 41% Trainer form is steady
Freshness 14 days Recent fitness window
Micro score +0.8 recent distance evidence matches today's ground; recent run fitness window; API past-result flags present
Ground timing match 2/3 Recent distance-time runs on today's ground
HeadgearNone | No headgear declared WindNo wind surgery flag Latest SP6/1 OwnerSheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum
Sire Mehmas Dam Hard Forest Damsire Hard Spun
Profile Signals Form clues that can sharpen the read
Course + distanceHas won over this course and distance
Race comment

Prominent - pressed leader over 2f out - weakened over 1f out (trainer's rep had no explanation for the poor form shown; vet had nothing to report)(op 13/8)

Market note

No verified market note available.

Model impact

Only reliable clues can move the rating, and the nudge is capped at +/-2 so the core score stays stable.

Recent Evidence Last 3 runs
1/3 fast finish Avg beaten 1.4L
DateCoursePosBeatenFinish
04-06-2026 Ffos Las 6 2.2 Neutral finish
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) 7 2 Run faded
13-03-2026 Southwell (AW) 1 0 Fast finish
Ratings TrendLast 6 rating vs OR
Oldest to newest | rating shows performance; OR shows handicap mark
Exceeded the handicap mark in 0 of 1 runs with an official OR. 3 earlier runs were unrated.
10-10-2025 | York
Rating 63 OR Unrated
08-11-2025 | Wolverhampton (AW)
Rating 69 OR Unrated
13-03-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 73 OR Unrated
09-04-2026 | Southwell (AW)
Rating 52 OR 72
04-06-2026 | Ffos Las
Rating -- OR 70
Today's distance intelligence
Runs at/similar trip3 ✓ Experienced at trip ReliabilityLOW

Last 3 trip times: 0:57.60 | 0:58.64 | 1:1.81

Last 3 trip positions: 1 | 7 | 6

Approx winning time58.41s
Last win at trip0:57.60 | Southwell (AW) | 13-03-2026

Last distance win context: vs par -0.81s | OR Unrated | weight --

Last 6 runs
Date Conditions Result SP OR Rating TS Beaten Time FF Timing Read
04-06-2026 Ffos Las | 5f | Good To Soft | Class 5 6 6/1 70 -- -- 2.2 -- GREY - no timing read
09-04-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 5 7 11/8F 72 52 48 2 0:58.41 GOLD - faster than par
13-03-2026 Southwell (AW) | 5f | Standard | Class 4 1 85/40F -- 73 59 0 0:57.60 GOLD - faster than par
08-11-2025 Wolverhampton (AW) | 6f | Standard | Class 5 3 3/1 -- 69 37 0.2 1:14.27 GREY - below benchmark
10-10-2025 York | 6f | Good | Class 3 5 100/30 -- 63 51 0.5 1:14.70 GREY - below benchmark
Handicap Well handicapped

+22lb FFR vs OR.

Benchmark Fit score 0

Historical benchmark read: historic winning rating par is around 78.1 and winning TS par is around 56.9. Runner versus par: rating edge -5.1 | TS edge +2.1. Benchmark fit: 0.

Model agreement 3/6 layers positive
DistanceBenchmarkMemoryPaceCommentaryFinish
J Street Closer
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 44.4
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Startling Distance specialist
Model agreement 3/6
Mixed agreement
Decision Confidence 28.0
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Torfrida Context profile
Model agreement 1/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 13.5
WATCH ONLY
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Fantasy Obsessor Front-runner
Model agreement 2/6
Fragile agreement
Decision Confidence 9.6
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.

Solid Bond Context profile
Model agreement 0/6
Low agreement
Decision Confidence 4.8
CAUTION PROFILE
Condensed View

This runner is kept lightweight to make the racecard faster to scan. Use the race scan and comparison board first; open deeper runner evidence for primary, shortlist and second-look profiles.